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18. Satellite, Yields and Management - Leander Campbell
- 1. Forecasting Canadian Crop Yields …with Satellites! Forecasting Canadian Crop Yields …with Satellites! @LeanderCampbell (AAFC-Ottawa) #EOCC19 @LeanderCampbell (AAFC-Ottawa) #EOCC19
- 2. Internal AAFC system that produces regional & national crop yield forecasts during & shortly after the growing season. Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF) @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19 • Starting in the 2013, an experimental outlook report was delivered to a group of selected “beta” users for evaluation. • Outlook reports are released around the middle of July, August, September & October (for soybean & corn only). 2018 Forecasted Crops: Spring Wheat, Durum, Canola, Barley, Oats, Flaxseed, Lentils, Soybean, Corn for Grain
- 3. @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19 Current CCYF Operational Scale and Input Data Climate Data: Tmax, Tmin and Precip. EO Data: AVHRR NDVI (1987- present) Historical Yield: Census Agricultural Region (CAR) Crop Mask: By crop Soil Information: By station Current CCYF Operational Scale & Input Data
- 4. • Process based Versatile Soil Moisture Budget (VSMB) model: to generate agroclimate indices from climate, crop and soil data • Statistical algorithms for predictor selection, model building, data generation and probability forecast. A Simplified Look at the CCYF Methodology @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19 Cdn Water Resource Journal Vol. 35(2): 187–208 (2010) Hayashi et al
- 5. Example Output of the CCYF – Wheat Predicted 80% confidence interval range: 19.7 - 23.8 million/t or 724 – 875 million/bu @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
- 12. FORECASTED 2018 CROP YIELD & PRODUCTION Summary Table @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
- 13. • Demands for early season yield and production estimates from producers, commodity brokers, grain transporters and government policy makers. • Statistics Canada (STC), desire to address some issues associated with traditional survey-based yield estimates: Heavy questionnaire burden on farmers Human-related biases Short lead time MOTIVATION – Why do this? @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
- 14. Comparison of National Yield Estimates (AAFC & STC) 2018 Growing Season (Yields are in bushels/acre except for Lentils which are in 10 X pounds/acre) Spring Wheat Canola Oats Durum Wheat Soybeans Barley Corn for Grain Flax Lentils @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19
- 15. Who Looks at this Information? Groups that are currently on the CCYF Beta Distribution List @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19 AAFC Science & Technology Branch Strategic Policy Branch Market & Industry Services Branch Programs Branch STC University Scientists Provincial Govt At least 1 provincial recipient in each province except BC, NL GoC Departments Private Industry International Orgs Scientific research; Operations International trade Risk Management; Innovation Policy development All beta users provide feedback to aid in creating a more robust product in the future
- 16. What’s Next for the CCYF? @LeanderCampbell #EOCC19 • Further investigate results at provincial and CAR levels to find regional patterns in model performance. • Test other combinations of the datasets to find the best option for each crop. • Work out a near real time data acquisition and processing flow to meet operational needs.