1. XXThe Houston business cycle index improved to an an-
nualized –0.7 percent in April from a revised rate of –1.3
percent in March. The weak numbers were driven pri-
marily by job losses. Cumulatively, the index is down an
annualized 1.4 percent in 2016. Though further data revi-
sions to the index will come, it is now sending a clearer
signal of modest contraction in the region’s economy.
XXJobs in goods-producing industries are far more cycli-
cal than the service sector and have taken the brunt of
the oil bust. The private service sector is still expanding.
However, the growth rates for both goods and services
have been falling since last summer as the oil bust deep-
ened and the impact of lower oil prices spilled into other
industries in Houston.
XXTotal nonfarm employment in Houston contracted
an annualized 1 percent over the three months ending
in April. Construction and mining (–4,082 and –2,868
jobs, respectively), manufacturing (–5,086) and profes-
sional and business services (–3,985) led decliners. Job
growth came mostly from private educational and health
services (5,897), leisure and hospitality (2,388), and
government (2,300).
XXYear-over-year growth in total employment was just
under –0.1 percent in April, marking the fourth consecu-
tive month of year-over-year contraction.
XXHouston’s unemployment rate rose from 5.1 percent
in March to 5.2 percent in April, its highest level since
March 2014. Despite weakness in the local labor market,
Houston’s labor force has continued to grow this year.
The unemployment rate was 5 percent in the U.S. and
4.4 percent in Texas in April.
Business-Cycle Index
Houston Private Goods & Services
Employment Growth
Percent*
Index, January 2010 = 100
NOTES: Data show seasonally adjusted and annualized percentage growth by industry supersector. Numbers in parentheses
represent share of total employment and may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.
*Annualized month-over-month growth rate.
SOURCE: Dallas Fed.
*Recession dates defined using final data for the Houston Business-Cycle Index.
SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.
Houston Economic Indicators
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS • MAY 31, 2016
DALLASFED
The broader economy of Houston continues to struggle as the 2015–16 oil bust matures. The service sector is
gradually slowing, and goods producers—particularly those tied to energy—continue to hemorrhage jobs.
Leading indicators of the regional economy are mixed but continue to point toward a modestly negative outlook in the near term.
Summary
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Average since 2000 = 3.2
2015 growth rate = 0.2
2016 YTD = –1.4
92
104
116
128
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Houston recession*
Service-producing jobs
Goods-producting jobs
-1.0
0.8
-3.4
2.4
6.4
-11.0
3.1
-8.4
-2.5
-2.1
0.5
-0.1
1.0
-1.9
2.2
4.5
-5.4
5.3
-9.5
0.8
-0.6
0.5
Total
Trade, transp & utilities (21%)
Professional & business svc (16%)
Government (13%)
Educational & health services (13%)
Construction & mining (10%)
Leisure & hospitality (10%)
Manufacturing (8%)
Financial activities (5%)
Other services (4%)
Information (1%)
Jan. 2016 to Apr. 2016
Apr. 2015 to Apr. 2016

2. NOTE: Data may not match previously published numbers due to revisions.
CONTACT: For questions or information, contact Jesse Thompson at jesse.thompson@dal.frb.org.
More Dallas Fed economic updates: www.dallasfed.org/research/update/
XXService sector growth has softened unevenly in the
three months ending in April. While job growth in retail
trade (2,700) accelerated slightly over that time, most
other sectors and subsectors slowed. Administrative and
related jobs slowed sharply, declining at an annual rate
of 6 percent (–3,500 jobs), which was concentrated in
employment service firms.
XXAccommodation and food services was another sector
to slow substantially. While it is up strongly year to year,
it contracted slightly (–771 jobs) from January to April,
its first three-month decline since February 2011. The
recent decline was centered in restaurants and bars.
XXPrivate health employment growth slowed in recent
months despite a pickup in hospitals, which added 1,500
jobs from January to April. Robust hospital construction
activity suggests that both public and private hospital
employment growth will likely remain healthy in the
coming months.
XXThe Texas Leading Index ticked up in March and April
as all of the index components improved. This not only
suggests a better outlook for the state of Texas ahead, but
suggests that the growth rate of employment in Hous-
ton should recover slightly over the next three to four
months.
XXThe Leading Economic Index for the U.S. also perked
up in April on the back of a broad improvement in its
components. This implies better employment growth
numbers in Houston six months from now—more so for
service-producing industries than goods-producing.
XX The Houston Purchasing Managers Index was 44.2
in April—remaining in the mid-40s. A powerful leading
indicator for employment in Houston, this indicates that
employment growth over the next three months will
likely remain tepid.
XXHowever, the sales and production components of the
index have risen markedly in 2016 and may indicate that
the overall index will soon improve.
Service Sector Jobs
Job Growth–Health
Purchasing Managers Index and Employment Growth
Leading Indicators
NOTE: April Texas Leading Index data point is an estimate.
SOURCES: The Conference Board; Dallas Fed.
Texas Leading Index and U.S. Leading Index
NOTES: Data are annualized and seasonally adjusted percent changes. Sorted from largest to smallest industry.
SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.
NOTE: Employment growth is a monthly, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Composite index values >50 indicate expansion, and
index values <50 indicate contraction.
SOURCES: Institute for Supply Managment; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Dallas Fed.
Job Growth–Selected Service Industries
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
.
Houston employment
Houston PMI
2016
NOTES: Data show seasonally adjusted and annualized percentage employment growth. Numbers in parentheses represent share
of total health employment and may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.
4.5
3.7
6.7
3.83.5 3.3
7.1
0.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Total Ambulatory health
(46%)
Hospitals (27%) Other health (27%)
Apr. 2015 to Apr. 2016
Jan. 2016 to Apr. 2016
Average since 2000
105
107
109
111
113
115
117
119
121
123
125
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Texas Leading Index
U.S. leading index
3.4
3.7
-0.8
-2.5
-1.8
-0.3
0.7
4.0
-1.1
-1.4
-6.0
-2.6
0.4
-1.0
Retail trade
Accommodation & food services
Professional, scientific & technical
Admin, waste mgt, remediation & related
Wholesale trade
Transportation
Finance & insurance
Apr. 2015 to Apr. 2016
Jan. 2016 to Apr. 2016
Percent
Index, 1987 = 100 Index, 2010 = 100
Index Percent