Climate Science & Energy Solutions
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This slideshow begins with an explanation of the science that is driving climate change. As fossil fuels are burned, heat-trapping carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere, altering the Earth's natural carbon cycle. This has dangerous impacts around the world. Extreme temperatures are becoming the norm, which leads to catastrophic weather events like droughts that cause wildfires, or storms that cause floods. The longer it takes to reverse our emissions trends, the worse these weather events will become and the further away we get from ever reaching a stable climate. But there are solutions; natural gas has become increasingly cheaper in recent years and, if extracted and consumed properly, can offer a much cleaner energy source than traditional coal. Huge gains have been made in energy efficiency as well; in buildings, transportation, industry, and the electricity system. Renewable energy has also entered the playing field, with solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, and storage now starting to be able to compete with traditional fossil fuels. Policy action is needed in order to maintain this transition toward cleaner energy. We need to manage our use of fossil fuels, expand energy efficiency, and accelerate renewables. Whether it's by state regulation, federal standards, or Congressional action, we have the opportunity to ensure a low-carbon future for the U.S. and the world.
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Climate Science & Energy Solutions
- 2. 2 SCIENCE
- 3. 3 SCIENCE CO2 concentrations are 40 percent higher than they were during the Industrial Revolution CO2 concentrations likely haven’t been this high in millions of years Scientists have long-known that CO2 is a heat-trapping gas
- 4. 4 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Partspermillion 280 ppm 393 ppm 1750 concentration 2012 concentration +86 ppm +64 ppm +26 ppm +5 ppm +76 ppm -68 ppm -76 ppm Coal Oil Gas Cement Land use Land sink Ocean sink SOURCES Source: Shrinkthatfootprint.com SCIENCE CONTRIBUTORS TO CO2 CONCENTRATIONS SINKS
- 5. 5 SCIENCE HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS Cement Production (5%) Burning Fossil Fuels (75%) Agriculture/ Deforestation (20%)
- 6. 6 IMPACTS
- 8. 8 FREQUENCY COLD 1/3 of summers are colder than average
- 10. 10 FREQUENCY COLD AVERAGE HOT 1/3 of summers are hotter than average
- 11. 11 FREQUENCY 1/3 1/3 1/3 COLD AVERAGE HOT
- 12. 12 FREQUENCY COLD NORMAL HOTCOLD (NEW) AVERAGE HOT EXTREME HEAT 1/12 1/6 4/6 1/12
- 13. 13
- 14. 14 DROUGHT IN ILLINOIS EXTREME TEMPERATURES
- 15. 15 FLOODS IN BANGKOK EXTREME TEMPERATURES
- 16. 16 BUSHFIRES NEAR MELBOURNE EXTREME TEMPERATURES
- 17. 17 HURRICANE SANDY, ATLANTIC COAST EXTREME TEMPERATURES
- 18. 18 PINE BEETLE DAMAGE IN THE ROCKIES EXTREME TEMPERATURES
- 19. 19 IMPACTS EXTREMES BECOME THE NORM Increased strength and frequency of climate-related disasters 8 climate-related disasters in 2014 cost more than $1 billion Existing trends are reinforced and perpetuated Colder, wetter east coast Hotter, drier west coast
- 20. 20 IMPACTS Many emissions impacts are irreversible (within our lifetime) …and become harder to address the longer we wait
- 21. 21 RUNAWAY FEEDBACK LOOPS 1980 – 2012 ARCTIC SEA ICE MINIMUMS
- 22. 22 RUNAWAY FEEDBACK LOOPS 1980 – 2012 ARCTIC SEA ICE MINIMUMS
- 23. 23 METHANE RELEASE FROM MELTING TUNDRA RUNAWAY FEEDBACK LOOPS Melting permafrost could raise global temperatures by as much as 1.5°F by 2100
- 24. 24 WATER VAPOR CAPACITY RUNAWAY FEEDBACK LOOPS For every 1° increase in temperature caused by CO2 emissions, water vapor will cause an additional 1° increase
- 25. 25 SLOWING CARBON ABSORPTION BY OCEAN RUNAWAY FEEDBACK LOOPS Warmer, more acidic oceans absorb less (and emit more) CO2
- 26. 26 CARBON MATH To stabilize concentrations at any level, human emissions must get close to ZERO C O 2 e EMISSIONS C O 2 e CONCENTRATIONS BUSINESS AS USUAL 450 PPM 650 PPM GTCO2eEMISSIONSPERYEAR CO2ePPMCONCENTRATIONS 0 30 60 90 120 150 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 0 300 600 900 1200 1500 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 Graph data come from Climate Interactive’s C-ROADS model
- 27. 27 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Gigatons of CO2/year Business as usual 2030 start2020 start2010 start Different pathways to 450ppm Bigger drop over less time Smaller drop over more time THE COSTS OF DELAY
- 28. 28 SOLUTIONS
- 29. 29 HIGH ESTIMATE METHANE LEAKAGE LOW ESTIMATE METHANE LEAKAGE LIF E CYCLE E MISSIONS Varied methane leakage during extraction affects the climate impact of natural gas COAL NATURAL GAS Emits ½ as much CO2 as coal …But methane leakage is a HUGE concern SOLUTIONS Can natural gas save the day?
- 30. 30 SOLUTIONS ENERGY EFFICIENCY Buildings Freiburg, Germany (photo: Rolf Disch)
- 31. 31 SOLUTIONS ENERGY EFFICIENCY Buildings Transportation
- 32. 32 SOLUTIONS ENERGY EFFICIENCY Buildings Transportation Industry
- 33. 33 SOLUTIONS ENERGY EFFICIENCY Buildings Transportation Industry Electric System
- 34. 34 SOLUTIONS RENEWABLE ENERGY Solar (PV and thermal) NREL
- 35. 35 SOLUTIONS RENEWABLE ENERGY Solar (PV and thermal) Wind (onshore and offshore)
- 36. 36 SOLUTIONS RENEWABLE ENERGY Solar (PV and thermal) Wind (onshore and offshore) Biomass EnergyDigital
- 37. 37 SOLUTIONS RENEWABLE ENERGY Solar (PV and thermal) Wind (onshore and offshore) Biomass Geothermal
- 38. 38 SOLUTIONS RENEWABLE ENERGY Solar (PV and thermal) Wind (onshore and offshore) Biomass Geothermal Storage, CCS, small-scale nuclear Small modular reactor (Hyperion) Eos Energy Storage
- 39. 39 POLICY
- 40. 40 POLICY MANAGE FOSSIL FUELS Phase out coal
- 41. 41 POLICY Phase out coal Get natural gas right MANAGE FOSSIL FUELS
- 42. 42 POLICY EXPAND ENERGY EFFICIENCY Decouple utility profits from the volume of electricity sold Adopt Energy Efficiency Resource Standards for utilities Enact steadily tightening performance standards for appliances and industrial equipment Adopt “best in class” building codes
- 43. 43 POLICY ACCELERATE RENEWABLES Introduce and expand Renewable Portfolio Standards Modernize grid operations Fix the transmission system Rethink utility business models
- 44. 44 POLICY …FROM MULTIPLE ANGLES State Regulation RPS, PUCs, building codes
- 45. 45 POLICY State Regulation RPS, PUCs, building codes Federal Regulation Mileage standards, power plant regulations, oil/gas regulations, R&D …FROM MULTIPLE ANGLES 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 MPG U.S. Fuel Economy Standards Passenger Cars Light-duty Trucks
- 46. 46 POLICY State Regulation RPS, PUCs, building codes Federal Regulation Mileage standards, power plant regulations, oil/gas regulations, R&D Congress Comprehensive carbon policy …FROM MULTIPLE ANGLES
Notas del editor
- Outline: What is climate change? What are climate change impacts? How are they affecting us? Strategies to win Avenues to victory
- http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/carbon-emissions-and-sinks
- 1/12 colder than normal; 1/6 average; 4/6 warmer than normal; 1/12 extremely above normal
- The photo: Cattle farmer Marion Kujawa from Ashley, Illinois. The pond he uses to water his cattle has been drying up from the current drought. U.S.’s midwest drought has extended beyond 2012 and into early 2013. - Nearly 2/3 of U.S. was experiencing moderate to exceptional drought conditions in September 2012 - drought affected 67% of cattle production and 70-75% of corn and soybean production - production estimates were down 27% for corn, 24% for sorghum, and 7% for soybeans - Deutsche Bank Securities estimates drought will be responsible for nearly 1% drop in U.S. GDP for 2012. This comes out to about $35 billion in economic costs
- Thailand floods of 2011, caused by monsoon rains and tropical storms - 65 of Thailand’s 75 provinces experienced flooding, resulting in over 800 deaths - estimated economic costs over $14 billion (USD), responsible for a decline of about 1.5% in Thailand’s GDP in 2011 - as much as $22 billion in property damages - biggest impacts in Thailand’s manufacturing industries, especially for computer and automobile parts (global hard drive prices increased dramatically as a direct result of Thailand’s flooding damaging the industry)
- Bushfires have raged through Victoria, Tasmania, and New South Wales, Australia in early 2013 - in January, there were more than 170 bushfires in New South Wales, 30 of which were uncontained - heat, lightning strikes, and wind have carried fires across 350,000 hectares of land - 33 homes and thousands of livestock have been lost in the fires - temperatures in certain regions of southern Australia have hit nearly 50° C (or close to 120° F) - In early January, the continent’s average temperature of 40.3° C (or 104.5° F) broke the previous heat record from 1972
- Hurricane Sandy - about $65 billion in economic costs and over 125 deaths in the U.S. - considered a ‘superstorm’, with tropical force winds extended 820 miles at their widest - 24 states in U.S. were affected, as well several Caribbean countries that were in Sandy’s travelling path - more than 72,000 businesses and homes were destroyed in New Jersey alone *Last year, professors at Stanford University conducted a survey about public perceptions about global warming and government involvement in the issue. The survey coincidentally had polled people right before and after Hurricane Sandy. Results demonstrated that Sandy had no significant influence on the public’s perception of the seriousness of global warming or that global warming causes storms. In fact, the survey found that the participants polled after Sandy occurred felt a desire for less federal government action for global warming mitigation and a reduction in personal importance of the issue of global warming.
- Pine Beetle Forest in the Rocky Mountains. Without cold winters, pine beetles survive year-round and have expanded their range, leading to an explosive growth in their destruction of pine forests, which they use for habitat and food. - Since 2003, 8% of forest coverage in continental 48 states have been severely damaged by insects, more than 4X the area affected by forest fires
- As the Arctic temperatures rise, temperature differences between the Arctic and North America decrease, which changes the course of the jet stream known as the Polar Vortex. As the jet stream slows, its east-west motion fluctuates and experiences more north-south movement. While the jet stream typically keeps the frigid cold air in the arctic, increased fluctuation caused it to dip into North America in early 2014. Impact: Record low temperatures (-16F in Chicago, wind chills in OK and TX were -40), half the country affected, 21 cold-related deaths,
- Greenland now loses more than 100 billion tons of ice every year.
- As temperatures rise in arctic regions, permafrost layers degrade. Under that permafrost sits large amounts of frozen organic material, which decays when it is thawed, releasing methane and CO2. Increased emissions contribute to the ‘greenhouse effect’ and warm the arctic further, causing more permafrost degradation. Global warming is occurring twice as fast in the Arctic than in other regions of the world. About 2% of global methane comes from Arctic latitudes. Methane emissions from the Arctic increased 31% between 2003 and 2007. This has the potential to increase the Arctic’s impact to 7% of global methane emissions. Melting permafrost is estimated to contribute to as much as 1.5 degrees F in global warming by 2100.
- Water vapor is the largest positive feedback in the climate system. As temperatures rise, more water on the earth’s surface evaporates and turns to water vapor. Water vapor, like other greenhouse gases, traps heat and prevents it from escaping back into the atmosphere. Thus, the earth warms even more and water vapor capacity continues to increase. Scientists have predicted that water vapor roughly doubles the amount of warming caused by CO2, which means that if there is a 1 degree temperature increase caused by CO2, water vapor will cause the temperature to increase by an additional 1 degree.
- Currently, oceans absorb approximately 40% of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere. However, as oceans warm and more plankton and sea plants reach their absorption limit, their capacity to store carbon dioxide decreases. More and more carbon dioxide emissions will remain in the atmosphere, further causing global warming through the ‘greenhouse effect’. Additionally, carbon dioxide disrupts the pH balance of the ocean, making it more acidic. This is detrimental to ocean life, especially coral reefs and shell-forming animals. As these plants and animals die, they contribute even further to carbon dioxide in the ocean due to their decomposition.
- Currently, our CO2 emissions rate has been increasing over the years, which exponentially increases CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. It is important to note that, even if we stabilize the emissions rate, concentrations will continue to increase each year. The only way to keep concentrations flat is to completely eliminate any new carbon dioxide from entering into the atmosphere, or in other words, bring the emissions rate down to zero. Scientists predict that we need to stay within an atmospheric concentration of 450 ppm to avoid irreversible consequences of climate change. In order to get as close as possible to this concentration, we will need to reverse our emissions rate within the next few years and bring it down to zero within the next several decades. However, scientists estimate that, in reality, concentrations are more likely to stabilize around 650 ppm. In this scenario, we will continue on our high emissions path for the next few decades, reversing the emissions rate around 2050. As we allow the emissions rate to increase during those extra years, it will be difficult to drive it back down to initial rates (from ~90 Gt/year down to ~40 Gt/year) and even harder to continue driving it down to zero. This later start will also require more time to achieve zero emissions, which means that more emissions will build up meanwhile and further raise atmospheric concentration levels. The sooner we work to reduce emissions, the easier it will be. Stabilizing concentrations requires zero emissions. Further, stabilizing concentrations at a ‘safe’ level (closer to 450ppm) requires getting to zero emissions as soon as possible. **Note that the lines in these graphs represent real data that was computed using C-ROADS modeling software. This is why some of the lines are not perfectly smooth.**
- Source: Costs of Delay
- The graph shows that CO2 may be lower for natural gas than coal, but when you factor in estimates for methane leakage (which can be anywhere between 1% and 10%), natural gas has the potential to be even more damaging to the atmosphere than coal’s CO2 emissions. Natural gas may be no better than coal if it has even a 3% estimate for methane leakage.
- UC San Diego’s ‘Sustain UCSD’ initiative aims to enhance campus sustainability practices through programs in clean energy, alternative transportation, waste minimization, etc. Image of UCSD’s 2.8 MW fuel cell, which provides about 8% of campus total energy needs. Another 85% of the campus energy is produced by a 30 MW natural gas-fired combined heat and power system, which saves the campus $8 million in energy costs each year.
- A recent study from Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems reports that rooftop solar will soon be cost-competitive with coal in parts of Europe. Already, rooftop solar costs as low as .08-.14€/kWh. It estimates that levelized cost of energy could be as low as .04€/kWh in sunnier locations around the world by 2030.
- The largest wind turbine in the world, located in Denmark, is over 700 feet tall and can generate up to 8 MW of power, enough to supply electricity to 3,000 American households. Groups in Japan and Scotland have established pilot projects for floating offshore wind technologies. Floating wind turbines are beneficial because they open up new areas for wind capture and reduce/avoid the costs involved in turbine anchoring.
- PNNL is working on a processing method that transforms algae into liquid crude oil in less than an hour. This is still a small-scale production - the lab can produce several liters of algae oil a day – but companies are hoping to build upon PNNL’s technology to ramp up commercial-scale production.
- Within the last few days, Iceland unveiled a new geothermal project that takes advantage of heat from magma that flows underground. Iceland currently meets all of its electricity needs through geothermal and hydropower.
- At first, it would appear that natural gas has the potential to save the day for us. Natural gas emits half the carbon dioxide that coal does. However, natural gas is only a solution if it is extracted, processes, and consumed correctly. Currently, there are several issues associated with natural gas that have yet to be addressed. Methane leakage is one of the biggest concerns that threatens the feasibility of natural gas as America’s next big energy source.
- At first, it would appear that natural gas has the potential to save the day for us. Natural gas emits half the carbon dioxide that coal does. However, natural gas is only a solution if it is extracted, processes, and consumed correctly. Currently, there are several issues associated with natural gas that have yet to be addressed. Methane leakage is one of the biggest concerns that threatens the feasibility of natural gas as America’s next big energy source.
- At first, it would appear that natural gas has the potential to save the day for us. Natural gas emits half the carbon dioxide that coal does. However, natural gas is only a solution if it is extracted, processes, and consumed correctly. Currently, there are several issues associated with natural gas that have yet to be addressed. Methane leakage is one of the biggest concerns that threatens the feasibility of natural gas as America’s next big energy source.
- At first, it would appear that natural gas has the potential to save the day for us. Natural gas emits half the carbon dioxide that coal does. However, natural gas is only a solution if it is extracted, processes, and consumed correctly. Currently, there are several issues associated with natural gas that have yet to be addressed. Methane leakage is one of the biggest concerns that threatens the feasibility of natural gas as America’s next big energy source.
- 29 US companies (including all 5 major oil companies) are planning future business strategies around the likelihood of a carbon tax in coming years. Price estimates range from $6-60/ton CO2.