1. Decision Support Systems
for Designing & Managing
Productive, Resilient Landscapes
(Work in Progress)
Erick Fernandes1 & Jeffrey Richey2
1. The World Bank, Washington, DC (USA)
2. The University of Washington, Seattle, WA (USA)
Himalayas
Bhutan
India

2. Guiding Principles
• “If we knew what it was we were doing, it
would not be called research, would it?
• Logic will get you from A to B. Imagination will
take you everywhere.
• Not everything that can be counted counts and
not everything that counts can be counted.
• If the facts don't fit the theory, change the
facts.”
Albert Einstein

3. GHG Emissions by Region & Country

4. 1880-89
2000-09
…and the preponderance of
evidence says it’s humans—
thermometer readings all
around the world have risen
steadily since the beginning of
the Industrial Revolution
The world is getting warmer
30 year Baseline (1951-1980) = Normal Temp
In the last decade (2000-2009),
land temperature changes are
• 2x greater in the United States
than ocean temperature
changes;
• 2-3x greater in Eurasia; and
• 3-4x greater in the Arctic and
the Antarctic Peninsula.
NASA, 2013

5. World Bank – Turn Down the Heat Series
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20595

6. Projected Economic Losses from Coral
Reef Ecosystems in the Caribbean
• Coral reef fisheries - Estimated loss of net revenues
between US$95-140 million per year by 2015-2020.
• Dive Tourism - Estimated loss of net revenues
between US$100-300 million per year by 2015-2020.
• 20% Caribbean coastline protected by coral reefs –
Estimated loss of coastal protection service US$140-
420 million per year by 2050.
Caribbean coral reefs provide goods and services with an annual net
economic value in 2000 estimated at between US$3.1 - 4.6 billion from
fisheries, dive tourism, and shoreline protection services – WRI “Reefs at
Risk 2010”

7. From 2000-2011 there were 154 Hurricanes (H1-H5)
recorded in the Atlantic and Pacific
Central America & the Caribbean are increasingly vulnerable if the
projected increase in Hurricane Intensity (more H4&5s) happens over
the next 3-5 decades
Source: NOAA Hurricane Tracker

8. Increasing Number & Intensity of Atlantic
Storms & Hurricanes in LCR Likely
(2000-2011) 38 Hurricanes were H4 or H5
Source: NOAA

9. Climate Change resulting in a new type of El Niño ?
El Niño “Modoki” could result in:
1. Significantly drier Central America and Caribbean during El Niño events
2. Increase in frequency of AND a greater potential of Hurricanes making landfall
along the Gulf coast and the coast of Central America.

10. -40 -30 -20 -10 0
BRA
ARG
MEX
CAC
URY
PER
CHL
ECU
COL
XSM
Corn
2050
2020
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20
BRA
COL
CAC
ECU
XSM
ARG
MEX
CHL
PER
URY
Soybean
2050
2020
0 5 10 15 20
CHL
MEX
ARG
CAC
XSM
BRA
URY
PER
ECU
COL
Rice
2050
2020
-60 -40 -20 0 20
COL
ARG
XSM
ECU
CHL
BRA
CAC
MEX
URY
PER
Wheat
2050
2020
Impact of CC on Cereals in LCR
Source: World Bank, 2012

11. Agroecological Domains & Landscapes
Key for Decision Making in the Face of Climate Change
554 million ha of native vegetation
• 107 million ha of Conservation Units
• 103,5 million ha of Indigenous Land
• 274 million ha of native vegetation in private
properties (PPAs riparian and hills + Legal
Reserves)
• 69,5 m ha native remaining vegetation in PPAs
60 million ha of productive
land (crops fruits, and planted
forest)
38 million ha of
urbanization
and other uses
198 million ha of pastureland
1
six regions

12. Study Results (2014)
http://www.profor.info/sites/profor.info/files/docs/web%20brasil_2030_portugues.pdf

13. Data, Data Layers, Coupled Models, Spatial & Time Referenced
Outcome Scenarios for Policy Making
1
1. Seven climate models - four Global Climate Models
(GCMs) and three Regional models (RCMs) were used to
simulate the temperature and precipitation to 2020 and
2030 with 2010 as the baseline.
2. Temperature and precipitation simulations were
calibrated against hydrometerological data from a
range of Brazilian agencies (ANA, CPETEC, EMBRAPA,
INMET, UNICAMP). The AGRIPEMPO hydromet
system has a network of 1,200 meteorological stations
and 4,000 rain gauges nationally with at least 25 years
of data records that have been quality checked to 2007.
3. Crop productivity simulations were based on Brazil’s
Agro Climatic Risk and Vulnerability Zoning Model
(Assad and Pinto, 2008) developed by EMBRAPA and
UNICAMP that currently underpins all Ag & rural credit
in Brazil and was upgraded by this study.
4. Brazilian Land Use Model (BLUM) is a one-country,
multi-regional, multi-market, dynamic, partial equilibrium
economic model for the Brazilian agricultural sector
5. Legal Framework Context for Land Cover Land Use
Change policy and program for implementation
Projected Productivity for Pastures, Maize, and Soybean (2010  2030)

14. High Value Crops: Will Coffee be viable in Central America?
Source: Jarvis, CIAT (2012)
Example of suitable area projections due to temperature & precipitation changes

15. Land Insecurity, Uneven Tenure, Land Rights, Indigenous Communities, Competition
Increase
food
production
Build
resilience/
Reduce
poverty /
Share
Prosperity
Increase
Carbon
Sequestration
(& Reduce
Carbon
Emissions)
Forests & Agroforests:
Wood + Fuel &
Carbon + Water +
Biodiversity
Ecosystem Services for
Resilient Landscapes
People in Landscapes
Ag, Biodiversity, forests, land, water…

16. WATERSHEDS TO
BASINS
Nested scales
• Topography/DEM
• River networks & riparian
• Soils (depth, texture,
fertility)
• Landuse/cover,
• Biodiversity gradients
• Infrastructure
DECISION
SUPPORT
SYSTEMS
Integrated
• Policy
• Planning
• Budgeting
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR LANDSCAPE SCALE PLANNING
Observations, Measurements, Models
CLIMATE FORCING
Rainfall, Temp, Radiation,
Wind
• Local met records
• Satellite data
• Reanalysis
• Regional Climate Models
• IPCC Scenarios
A
S
S
E
T
V
A
L
U
E
S
WATER MOVEMENT
Field to landscape to basins
• Soil moisture, infiltration,
ET, runoff
• Stream/river flow
• Dams, reservoirs
• Irrigation
• Environmental flows
• Recreational flows
PRODUCTION
Field to Landscape
• Annual crops,
• Pastures, trees, incl
biofuels
• Agricultural Models
• Industrial
Sediments/Pollutants
Fields to Rivers to Coastal
• Sediment erosion &
transport
• Dissolved chemicals

17. DIF Cyber Infrastructure
Sensors &
Instruments
Earth
System
Models
Data
Archive
Metadata
Registry
GIS
Mapping
&
Translation
Scientific
Visualization
Media
Archive
Simulation
Resource
Planning
Biodiversity
Energy/
Hydropower
Water
Resources
Irrigation,
Environmental
Flows
Climate
&
IPCC
Scenarios
Land cover
&
Landuse
Soils
Topography
Land
Cadastral
Boundaries
2000
2020
2060
2080
Dynamic
Information
Framework
Urban
to Rural
Infrastructure

18. The Framework: “Earth System Models”
Moving from Data & Apps to Decision Support!!
Climate
Landcover,
Biodiversity
Soils
Boundaries
Topography
Infrastructure
GHG Emissions
Agriculture
Productivity
Floods &
Droughts
Evapotranspiration
Soil Moisture
E
y
0
1
2
Rs
RL
S
L
Es
E1
Q
Q
tG
R
B
Movement of water,
energy, and carbon
(e.g. VIC, CLM…)

19. Figure 2 VIC modelschematicFigure 2 VIC modelschematic
Computation-Engines
• Based on “first principles”
mechanics, and not
statistics. They can be
used more reliably for
changing conditions, in a
non-stationary world.
• Developed in public
academic forum, has been
applied to many
watersheds globally
• Software open source !!
Download the code here
19
http://www.hydro.washington.edu/Lettenmaier/Models/VIC/

20. Nested Geo-spatial Structure
facilitates scale up-scale down

21. Geo-Located Land Cover Land Use Mapping and Analysis

22. Decision Support Systems for Policy Makers
Municipality to National Scales
• Multi-sector data layers
assembled
• Distributed hydrological
models calibrated
• Dynamic Information
Framework for
quantitative projections
• Visualization Tool for
Decision and Policy
Makers – what, where,
when to invest????
Cyber Infrastructure (Data, DIF, Models)
Planning Tool for Infrastructure (Dams,
Drains, Embankments)
BIG Data
Big Data Analytics
[Terrabytes to Exabytes]

23. Principles for Climate Smart Landscapes
1. Protect the soil, reduce surface flows of water & enhance infiltration,
2. Stabilize slopes via contour plantings & terraces,
3. Integrate perennial species, forests, and agroforestry in the landscape
4. Protect all stream and river banks (riparian zones) with native
vegetation/forests
5. Rehabilitate all degraded lands
6. Combine best available science with adapted local best practices
Terracing Terracing + Perennials Agroforestry &
Forestry for Productive
and Env. services
Vegetated Riparian
Zones
Locally Adapted Best Practices

24. Dynamic Landscape Restoration - Amazon
Optimize Production and Service Synergies and Tradeoffs at Landscape Scales

25. Manage Synergies & Tradeoffs
across plots to the Landscape scale
Clark et al. 10.1073/pnas.0900231108

26. Take Home Lessons
1. Landscape Scale Planning and Decision Support Frameworks are
practical and necessary tools for governments and policy makers
2. Cross sector (inter Ministry) data integration and linkages are essential
for effective local to national to regional/global analyses, synthesis,
scenarios and decision-making
3. Climate Change and Population Growth require that countries undertake
appropriate simulations of likely impacts on critical sectors for economic
development at relevant spatial and time scales
4. Many WBG partners in Latin America, Central Asia, South Asia, and
Africa are implementing Dynamic Data and Information Frameworks for
Landscape Scale Resource Management and Planning
5. The World Bank is providing technical assistance and project financing to
assist client countries to develop their own Dynamic Information
Frameworks for Landscape Scale Management of Natural Resources and
to conduct impact simulations for prioritizing investments for Enhanced
Resilience to Climate Change.
6. Scale up action NOW!!