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Eryc Tri Juni S - A Risk-Sharing Scheme for Umrah Industry - 2017
26 de Mar de 2023•0 recomendaciones•5 vistas
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As a business analyst, I helped a travel agency navigate the competitive umrah industry in Indonesia. Recognizing the potential for growth in the market due to the country's large Muslim population, the agency was offered an MLM system for umrah. However, after thorough analysis, I discovered that the proposed system was a fraudulent Ponzi scheme. In response, I proposed a more ethical and sustainable solution - a risk-sharing scheme with a bank system that allowed users to go on umrah first and pay later. The scheme had a minimum target of only 20 pilgrims per month for the agent and resulted in a margin of 13.95%, with a potential net profit of around Rp. 60 million. Following my proposal, the travel agency implemented the risk-sharing scheme, which proved to be successful in attracting pilgrims to the umrah industry. This approach has gained widespread adoption among other players in the market, particularly after a high-profile Ponzi scheme for cheap umrah called PT First Anugerah Karya Wisata (First Travel) was exposed.
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Eryc Tri Juni S - A Risk-Sharing Scheme for Umrah Industry - 2017
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- MULTILEVEL MARKETING FOR UMRAH TRAVEL AGENCY Rp. 100,000 Rp. 500,000 Rp. 500,000 Rp. 500,000 Rp. 500,000 Rp. 500,000 A B D E C F G TOTAL RECEIVED by A : Rp. 1,800,000 ROYALTY (D,G) Rp. 250,000 X 2 = Rp. 500,000 COMPANY TOTAL REVENUES: Rp. 1,600,000 X 7 = Rp. 11,200,000 REGISTRATION FEE : @ Rp. 1,600,000 SPONSORS (B,C): Rp. 500,000 X 2 = Rp. 1,000,000 PAIR (B-C, D-E, F-G): Rp. 100,000 X 3 = Rp. 300,000 Rp. 250,000 Rp. 250,000 Rp. 100,000 Rp. 100,000
- MULTILEVEL MARKETING FOR UMRAH TRAVEL AGENCY Rp. 100,000 Rp. 500,000 Rp. 500,000 Rp. 500,000 Rp. 500,000 Rp. 500,000 A B D E C F G TOTAL RECEIVED by A : Rp. 1,800,000 ROYALTY (D,G) Rp. 250,000 X 2 = Rp. 500,000 COMPANY TOTAL REVENUES: Rp. 1,600,000 X 7 = Rp. 11,200,000 REMAINING FUNDS : REGISTRATION FEE : @ Rp. 1,600,000 Rp. 11,200,000 – ( Total A + B + C ) = Rp. 7,200,000 ACTUALLY A ONLY GET Rp. 200,000 ATAU 1,78 % SPONSORS (B,C): Rp. 500,000 X 2 = Rp. 1,000,000 PAIR (B-C, D-E, F-G): Rp. 100,000 X 3 = Rp. 300,000 SPONSORS BONUS (D,E) & (F,G) Rp. 500,000 X 2 = Rp. 1,000,000 PAIR BONUS (D-E) & (F-G) Rp. 100,000 X 1= Rp. 100,000 NOT WORTH THE RISK Rp. 250,000 Rp. 250,000 Rp. 100,000 Rp. 100,000 TOTAL RECEIVED by B & C : Rp. 2,200,000 WHERE ARE THESE FUNDS? TRANSPARENCY?
- MULTILEVEL MARKETING FOR UMRAH TRAVEL AGENCY Rp. 100,000 Rp. 500,000 Rp. 500,000 Rp. 500,000 Rp. 500,000 Rp. 500,000 A B D E C F G TOTAL RECEIVED by A : Rp. 1,800,000 ROYALTY (D,G) Rp. 250,000 X 2 = Rp. 500,000 COMPANY TOTAL REVENUES: Rp. 1,600,000 X 7 = Rp. 11,200,000 REMAINING FUNDS : REGISTRATION FEE : @ Rp. 1,600,000 Rp. 11,200,000 – ( Total A + B + C ) = Rp. 7,200,000 ACTUALLY A ONLY GET Rp. 200,000 ATAU 1,78 % SPONSORS (B,C): Rp. 500,000 X 2 = Rp. 1,000,000 PAIR (B-C, D-E, F-G): Rp. 100,000 X 3 = Rp. 300,000 SPONSORS BONUS (D,E) & (F,G) Rp. 500,000 X 2 = Rp. 1,000,000 PAIR BONUS (D-E) & (F-G) Rp. 100,000 X 1= Rp. 100,000 NOT WORTH THE RISK Rp. 250,000 Rp. 250,000 Rp. 100,000 Rp. 100,000 TOTAL RECEIVED by B & C : Rp. 2,200,000 WHERE ARE THESE FUNDS? TRANSPARENCY? 1. WITH JUST RP 1.6 MILLION, CAN YOU GO FOR UMRAH? HOW MANY MEMBERS NEED TO BE RECRUITED? 2. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES A STUCK? 3. WHAT IS THE FUNCTION OF THIS SYSTEM IF IN THE END, THE CUSTOMER STILL HAS TO PAY THE REMAINING UMRAH FEES?
- MULTILEVEL MARKETING FOR UMRAH TRAVEL AGENCY Rp. 100,000 Rp. 500,000 Rp. 500,000 Rp. 500,000 Rp. 500,000 Rp. 500,000 A B D E C F G TOTAL RECEIVED by A : Rp. 1,800,000 ROYALTY (D,G) Rp. 250,000 X 2 = Rp. 500,000 COMPANY TOTAL REVENUES: Rp. 1,600,000 X 7 = Rp. 11,200,000 REMAINING FUNDS : REGISTRATION FEE : @ Rp. 1,600,000 Rp. 11,200,000 – ( Total A + B + C ) = Rp. 7,200,000 ACTUALLY A ONLY GET Rp. 200,000 ATAU 1,78 % SPONSORS (B,C): Rp. 500,000 X 2 = Rp. 1,000,000 PAIR (B-C, D-E, F-G): Rp. 100,000 X 3 = Rp. 300,000 SPONSORS BONUS (D,E) & (F,G) Rp. 500,000 X 2 = Rp. 1,000,000 PAIR BONUS (D-E) & (F-G) Rp. 100,000 X 1= Rp. 100,000 NOT WORTH THE RISK Rp. 250,000 Rp. 250,000 Rp. 100,000 Rp. 100,000 TOTAL RECEIVED by B & C : Rp. 2,200,000 WHERE ARE THESE FUNDS? TRANSPARENCY? 1. WITH JUST RP 1.6 MILLION, CAN YOU GO FOR UMRAH? HOW MANY MEMBERS NEED TO BE RECRUITED? 2. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES A STUCK? 3. WHAT IS THE FUNCTION OF THIS SYSTEM IF IN THE END, THE CUSTOMER STILL HAS TO PAY THE REMAINING UMRAH FEES?
- “SHARING RISKS, NOT JUST PROFITS, IS BUSINESS. WHAT CUSTOMERS WANT IS ONLY CONVENIENCE AND CERTAINTY.”
- CERTAINITY FOR PILGRIMS UMRAH CERTAINTY OF RETURN – LEAVE & FLIGHT ROUTES CERTAINTY OF TOTAL COSTS AND PACKAGES OFFERED CERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF THE HOTEL IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE MOSQUE VISA CERTAINTY RECEIVED BEFORE DEPARTURE THE TRAVEL BUREAU HAS AN OFFICIAL LICENSE FROM THE MINISTRY OF RELIGION, WHICH CAN BE CHECKED AT haji.kemenag.go.id
- WHAT DATA TELL ABOUT PILGRIMS? UMRAH LARGEST AMOUNT NO.3 IN THE WORLDS “THE LONG TIME WAITING FOR HAJJ MAKES UMROH AS FAVORITE ALTERNATIVE” LOWEST PRICE BY KEMENAG UU NO 13 TAHUN 2008 $ 1700 ATAU Rp. 22,517,421.52 $1 = Rp. 13,240 / 09-16-17 WITH A 1% INTEREST RATE, IN T = 36 MTH AVERAGE INSTALLMENT/MTH = Rp. 634,635 FLIGHT AIRLINES HOTEL THE EMERGENCE OF CREDIT SHELL INCREASE GROWTH % UMRAH PILGRIMS 80 % COST ABSORB BY 7 MONTH / YEAR PEAK SEASON : DECEMBER TRAVEL SERVICE MARGIN UMROH (3 – 5 %) - $ 300 BUT CONTINUE
- WHAT DATA TELL ABOUT PILGRIMS? UMRAH LARGEST AMOUNT NO.3 IN THE WORLDS “THE LONG TIME WAITING FOR HAJJ MAKES UMROH AS FAVORITE ALTERNATIVE” LOWEST PRICE BY KEMENAG UU NO 13 TAHUN 2008 $ 1700 ATAU Rp. 22,517,421.52 $1 = Rp. 13,240 / 09-16-17 WITH A 1% INTEREST RATE, IN T = 36 MTH AVERAGE INSTALLMENT/MTH = Rp. 634,635 Rp. 21,155 / HARI THEN WITH INCOME Rp. 7,000,000/MTH 9% ONLY FROM INCOME 0% DP • EASE OF SERVICE ACCESS • FIXED FACILITIES & SCHEDULE • LIGHT INSTALLMENT % GROWTH OF UMRAH PILGRIMS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY! FLIGHT AIRLINES HOTEL THE EMERGENCE OF CREDIT SHELL INCREASE GROWTH % UMRAH PILGRIMS 80 % COST ABSORB BY 7 MONTH / YEAR PEAK SEASON : DECEMBER TRAVEL SERVICE MARGIN UMROH (3 – 5 %) - $ 300 BUT CONTINUE 3 CASHFLOW HOLDER SEGMENT AIRLINES HOTEL FINANCE UMROH FIRST, PAY LATER
- WHAT DATA TELL ABOUT TARGETS? RELIABLE TAHUN TOTAL USER AVERAGE USER / MTH GROWTH 2012 420 60 2013 495 70.7 17.8 % 2014 702 100.2 41.8 % 2015 794 113.4 13.1 % 2016 938 134 18.1 % 2017 1009 144 7.5 % FAQHY INDAH WISATA TOUR & TRAVEL GROWTH RATE = ( 1009 420 ) Τ 1 6 −1 GROWTH RATE = 15.7 % IN 6 YEAR Rp. 18,500,000 Rp. 21,500,000 BASE PRICE COGS MARGIN Rp. 3,000,000 % MARGIN 13.95 % HOW COME?
- WHAT DATA TELL ABOUT TARGETS? RELIABLE TAHUN TOTAL USER AVERAGE USER / MTH GROWTH 2012 420 60 2013 495 70.7 17.8 % 2014 702 100.2 41.8 % 2015 794 113.4 13.1 % 2016 938 134 18.1 % 2017 1009 144 7.5 % FAQHY INDAH WISATA TOUR & TRAVEL GROWTH RATE = ( 1009 420 ) Τ 1 6 −1 GROWTH RATE = 15.7 % IN 6 YEAR TARGET YEAR AVERAGE USER / MTH GROSS PROFIT / MONTH 1 20 - 40 Rp. 60,000,000 – Rp. 120,000,000 2 24 - 48 Rp. 72,000,000 – Rp. 144,000,00 3 41 - 82 Rp. 123,000,000 – Rp. 246,000,00 Rp. 18,500,000 Rp. 21,500,000 BASE PRICE COGS MARGIN Rp. 3,000,000 % MARGIN 13.95 % 20 USER Rp. 60,000,000 % BUDGET MARKET RESEARCH VIABLE ENOUGH HOW COME? RISK SHARING? MANAGEMENT FEE DEBT = MONEY
- 20 "EVEN WITH JUST 20 PILGRIMS/MONTH, IT’S ECONOMICALLY VIABLE. HOW CAN WE ESTABLISH REPEAT ORDERS, DEVELOP OUR CUSTOMER BASE, AND IMPROVE OUR MARKETING STRATEGY?" MARKET RESEARCH MARKET ANALYSIS
- THANK YOU
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