EIA Rolls Out Ethanol by Rail Data

1. EIA Rolls Out Ethanol By Rail Data
Mindi Farber-DeAnda
Team Lead
Biofuels & Emerging
Technologies Analysis
U.S. Energy Information
Administration
Kelly Davis
Director of Regulatory Affairs
Renewable Fuels Association
Jay Olberding
Consultant
PLG Consulting

2. www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
EIA’s forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
For
National Ethanol Conference
February 17, 2016 | New Orleans, LA
By
Mindi Farber DeAnda, EIA Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis
Jay Olberding, PLG

3. EIA mission: independent statistics and analysis
3
• EIA was created by the U.S. Congress in 1977
• EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and
impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking,
efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its
interaction with the economy and the environment
• EIA is the Nation's premier source of energy information and,
by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of
approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S.
Government
• EIA does not propose or advocate any policy positions
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016

4. EIA petroleum and biofuel data use Petroleum Administration
for Defense Districts (PADDs)
4
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016

5. The Midwest (PADD 2) is where almost all ethanol is produced
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 5
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PADD5 PADD4 PADD3 PADD2 PADD1
Ethanol Production by PADD
Source: EIA

6. The East Coast (PADD 1) is where most ethanol is blended with
gasoline
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 6
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PADD5 PADD4 PADD3 PADD2 PADD1
Ethanol Refiner and Blender Net Input by PADD
thousand b/d
Source: EIA

7. EIA summary statistics are split into supply and disposition
7
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016
SUPPLY DISPOSITION
Production Stocks withdrawn
Adjustments Refinery/Blender Input
Imports Exports
Inter-PADD Receipts Inter-PADD Shipments
• By definition supply must equal disposition
• For ethanol the elements are
• Receipt and Shipment modes include pipeline, waterborne, and rail
• Net Receipts = Receipts - Shipments

8. 2010 U.S. regional ethanol balances (thousand b/d)
8
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016
Note: *Implied rail is calculated to make supply equal disposition
**Regional adjustments are calculated as a % of the U.S. adjustment
East Coast Midwest Gulf Coast
Rocky
Mountain
West Coast
U.S.
SUPPLY PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 PADD 4 PADD 5
Production + 20 806 18 14 10 867
Imports + 0 0 0 0 0 1
Net Inter-PADD receipts + 310 (566) 110 4 142
Pipeline 0 0 0 0 0
Tanker and Barge 4 17 13 0 0
Implied Rail 306 (583) 97 4 142
Adjustments + (21) (15) (8) (1) (10) (56)
DISPOSITION
Stocks withdrawn - (1) 2 2 0 0 4
Refinery/Blender Input - 302 216 108 16 141 783
Exports - 8 6 11 0 1 26
Source: EIA

9. 2014 U.S. regional ethanol balances (thousand b/d)
9
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016
Note: *Implied rail is calculated to make supply equal disposition
**Regional adjustments are calculated as a % of the U.S. adjustment
East Coast Midwest Gulf Coast
Rocky
Mountain
West Coast
U.S.
SUPPLY PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 PADD 4 PADD 5
Production + 24 855 22 14 18 934
Imports + 3 0 1 0 1 5
Net Inter-PADD receipts + 300 (594) 146 13 135
Pipeline 0 0 0 0 0
Tanker and Barge 6 (17) 11 0 0
Implied Rail 294 (577) 135 13 135
Adjustments + (3) (2) (1) 0 (1) (8)
DISPOSITION
Stocks withdrawn - 2 2 2 0 1 6
Refinery/Blender Input - 319 238 135 27 150 869
Exports - 4 19 30 0 2 55
Source: EIA

10. Ethanol net receipts by mode reveal that rail is the primary mode of
ethanol shipments out of Midwest (PADD 2)
10
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016
PADD1 PADD2 PADD3 PADD4 PADD5
Net shipment
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
PADD1 PADD2 PADD3 PADD4 PADD5
Waterborne Implied Rail
thousand barrels per day 2014
Net receipt
2010
Source: EIA

11. EIA’s new data series on ethanol-by-rail movements
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 11
• Similar data has already been published for crude oil
– www.eia.gov/petroleum/transportation
• Developed from Surface Transportation Board (STB) administrative data
• Will be published in the coming months
• Credible and publicly-available information on ethanol-by-rail movements,
including historical monthly data back to 2010
• Inter- and intra-regional ethanol-by-rail movements improve EIA’s ethanol
balances by providing additional transparency on shipments and receipts
• EIA has also developed tools to aggregate and analyze weekly rail performance
data reported to STB

12. 12
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016
Estimated
monthly carloads
STB Carload
Waybill Sample
EIA products
(aggregated statistics
in barrels)
• Inter/intra-PADD
movements
• Canada imports/exports
• Class I and short line
RRs that meet STB
carload threshold
• Sampled RR bills-of-
lading
• Highly detailed
1 2 3
• Apply expansion factors
• Apportion rail movement
by month, PADD
• All railroads
Estimate
balance of rail
movements
4
• U.S.-Canadian carloads
• Convert carloads to
barrels
• Regressions for near-
month estimates
EIA’s ethanol-by-rail data process integrates multiple data streams

13. 13
Source: STB through Annual Confidentiality Agreement
Update rate and lag time: Daily data provided monthly/quarterly
with a 2-month lag
Companies reporting: Both Class I and short-line companies
(Class II and III)
Data elements: company, date, carloads and tonnage by data type,
origination, termination, and interchange points
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016
STB Carload Waybill Sample Data

14. Data issues with STB Carload Waybill Sample
14
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016
• Accounting date vs waybill date
– EIA uses its own reporting period, which is the Waybill date plus estimated transit
time(s)
• Rule 11 moves around the Chicago area
– More waybills originate in Chicago than terminate in Chicago
• Changes to EIA’s existing ethanol balances
– Once rail data is introduced, adjustments will be calculated to balance supply and
disposition
• Impacts on EIA’s gasoline product supplied
– Ethanol adjustments will modify motor gasoline adjustments

15. Conversion of STB carload data to barrels
15
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016
• Expanded carloads are converted to barrels by
– Carload weight * the density of ethanol
• The greater of the billed vs actual weight found in the Waybill is used
– Barrel per carload conversion factors are calculated quarterly

16. Estimating rail movements without STB data
16
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016
• STB provides the Waybill sample quarterly while EIA requires
monthly data
– The quarterly waybill is provided up to 2 months after quarter end
• EIA estimates anywhere from 1 to 3 months of rail movements to
meet the Petroleum Supply Monthly production schedule
– A combination of time-series, regression models, and averages is used
for the estimates

17. With the addition of ethanol, the title of the page will change
and ethanol will be added as a drop down product
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 17
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_MOVE_
RAILNA_A_EPC0_RAIL_MBBL_M.htm

18. Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 18
Ethanol plants are concentrated in the Midwest
Ethanol Plants -
million gallons per year (MGY)

19. Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 19
Rail shipments originate near ethanol plants in the Midwest and
terminate on the coasts

20. Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 20
Ethanol/gasoline blending terminals are spread throughout the country

21. Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 21
2010 ethanol-by-rail map
10 350 700
Thousands of barrels
per day
Ethanol plant
Legend

22. Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 22
2014 ethanol-by-rail map
10 350 700
Thousands of
barrels per day
Ethanol plant
Legend

23. Analyzing the STB rail service issues data (EP 724)
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 23
• In October 2014 the STB ordered the class I railroads to provide weekly data on 10
performance metrics
1. System average train speed by unit train type
2. System average terminal dwell
3. Cars online by car type
4. Average dwell time at origin by unit train type
5. Trains held greater than 6 hours by unit train type
6. Cars not moved in greater than 120 hours and 48 hours by unit train type
7. Grain cars loaded and billed
8. Grain cars: past due, average days late, new orders, orders filled/canceled
9. Grain trains: plan vs. performance
10.Coal trains: plan vs. performance
• Data is publicly available on the STB website and might be useful in informing the EIA rail
data
• EIA has an approach to scrape and analyze data for crude and ethanol unit trains

24. EIA rail service scraper tool –
select commodity and railroad data to view
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 24

25. EIA rail service scraper tool – average speed, dwell time, and
number of loaded cars
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 25

26. EIA rail service scraper tool – empty cars
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 26

27. EIA rail service scraper tool – BNSF loaded and empty cars
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 27

28. 28
For more information
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
U.S. Movements of Crude Oil By Rail | www.eia.gov/petroleum/transportation
Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data
New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016