This deck examines major trends in the travel industry including the lasting impact of Brexit on travel in Europe, global tourism demand, key destination arrival trends, China outbound departures and more.

1. TRAVEL 2016 KEY INSIGHTS
INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK
OCTOBER 2016

2. SHOCKS, SPILLS AND THRILLS
BREXIT: BOOM OR BUST?
DISRUPTION BREEDS GROWTH

3. © Euromonitor International
3
Flight
- Refugees and migrants
seeking safety and fleeing war
zones and poverty
- Puts stress on existing
infrastructure
- Avoidance of destinations
affected by terrorism
Financialstress
- Global economic stagnation
- Economicuncertainty and
job losses leading to
consumers’ falling out of the
middle classes
Fright
- Pandemicscause major
consumer alarm, eg Zika
- Social unrest and protests
- Growing inequality
- Radicalisation
Politicalfracture
- Potential collapse of political
unions and trading blocs, eg
EU and Brexit
- Democracyin question, eg in
the US with Trump polarising
opinion and challenging the
status quo
Travel flies in the face of fear
SHOCKS, SPILLS AND THRILLS
Quadrant of Fear Factors
US$2.5 trn
TRAVEL PRODUCT SALES
+45%
ONLINE TRAVEL
PENETRATION 2020
4% CAGR
GLOBAL OUTBOUND TRIPS
2015-2020
CAGR = Compound annual growth rate

4. © Euromonitor International
4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2001 2006 2010 2015 2020
MillionTrips
World Arrivals by Region in Trips 2001-2020
Asia Pacific
Australasia
Eastern Europe
Latin America
Middle East and
Africa
North America
Western Europe
Tourism demand yet to peak
SHOCKS, SPILLS AND THRILLS
 Global demand has grown consistently over the past 20 years, shows very little signs of slowing
 By 2020, it is expected that 1.5 billion international trips will be taken
 While Western Europe remains the most popular region, Asia’s ascent is at the expense of Europe

5. © Euromonitor International
5
Destinations on a geopolitical rollercoaster
SHOCKS, SPILLS AND THRILLS
 Visible substitution effect where shifting capacity to more stable countries
 Sharp declines in Egypt, Tunisia and Turkey as consumers opt for safer shores of Spain, Portugal &
Croatia
Source: Euromonitor International from UNWTO

6. © Euromonitor International
6
 Asia Pacific punches well above its weight in
terms of travel indicators compared to its share
of global GDP
 Asia Pacific is not enjoying as much success
inbound as it is on a domestic and outbound scale
 Asians in the next development phase of tourism,
away from intra-regional to international travel
 Decline in Asia’s value share of world inbound
receipts over 2015-2020,from 46% to 37%, will
in part be due to greater price pressure, due to
online sales
 Players like Ctrip are driving this charge
Scales tilt in Asia’s favour, with positive widespread effects
SHOCKS, SPILLS AND THRILLS
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Hotels
Airlines
GDP
Online Travel Sales
Intermediaries
Outbound Expenditure
Inbound Receipts
Domestic Expenditure
Population
% share
Asia’s Share of World Travel and
Tourism 2015/2020
2015
2020

7. © Euromonitor International
7
 By 2018, Chinese outbound departures expected to
reach the 100 million mark
 By 2030, 200 million outbound Chinese travellers
 Large steady supply from China will gravitate to
Asia
 Japan and South Korea have enjoyed the strongest
demand from China, aided by visa programmes
 Chinese hard landing scenario would knock
250,000 trips off China to US , but still growing
strong at 26% CAGR 2016/2020
CAGR = Compound annual growth rate
China outbound is a great opportunity but not a panacea
SHOCKS, SPILLS AND THRILLS
China to US 2020:
3.5mn 30% CAGR
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
HongKong,China
Thailand
Macau
Japan
SouthKorea
Taiwan
US
Vietnam
Singapore
Malaysia
France
Myanmar
Germany
Indonesia
Australia
Russia
Departures(million)
China Outbound Departures
2000/2010/2020
2000 2010 2020

8. © Euromonitor International
8
 The Chinese government has so far avoided an economic
hard landing
 Economic fundamentals proving better than expected,
with real GDP growth forecast at 6.4% in 2016
 China takes the leading share of outbound Asian
expenditure, with 41% in 2015, compared to much lower
shares for advanced economies like Japan (4%) and South
Korea (8%) & India (6%)
 Work still needs to be done in India to encourage
outbound travel as to become the world’s most populous
nation by 2025
 Important to look at other emerging markets with rising
disposable incomes - India, Indonesia, Mexico, Malaysia,
Turkey and Poland
Looking to China and beyond for long-term growth
SHOCKS, SPILLS AND THRILLS
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
2015 2020
US$billion
Asia Outbound Expenditure
2015/2020
Other Asia China Hong Kong
India Indonesia Japan
Singapore South Korea Taiwan

9. © Euromonitor International
9
Looking into India’s future
SHOCKS, SPILLS AND THRILLS

10. © Euromonitor International
10
Winners
Departures
'000 2020
Ranking
2020
Ranking position
change 2015/2020
India 26,379 15 6
Indonesia 13,280 27 6
Singapore 27,094 13 4
Turkey 11,065 33 4
Malaysia 23,083 19 3
Thailand 14,003 26 3
China 116,484 2 2
South Korea 29,868 11 2
US 119,471 1 1
Losers
Departures
'000 2020
Ranking
2020
Ranking position
change 2015/2020
UK 95,749 4 -1
Russia 30,878 10 -1
Australia 20,908 20 -1
Belgium 26,814 14 -2
Germany 113,317 3 -3
Switzerland 24,971 17 -3
Japan 24,380 18 -3
Ukraine 18,079 22 -4
Brazil 9,135 39 -8
Continued diversification to safeguard tourism demand
SHOCKS, SPILLS AND THRILLS
 Asia Pacific will be key to tourism strategies; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and China will see
big jumps in their importance to global tourism as a % share of departures
 Conflict and economic strife will see Russia, Ukraine and Brazil continue to lose momentum
 UK to US will continue to grow at 3% per year but challenges ahead post-Brexit

11. THANK YOU FOR LISTENINGTHANK YOU FOR LISTENINGThis is a redacted version. For the full presentation, please
email press@euromonitorintl.com..