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Auto Lending Naysayers Are 
Neglecting Key Facts 
Part II 
Jerry Podczaski, 
Global Consulting Practice, 
Experian Decision Analytics 
©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the 
trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. 
Experian Public
2 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 
Experian Public. 
Public 
Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report 
VantageScore Overview 
VantageScore Credit Tiers 
Super prime 781-850 
Prime 661-780 
Near prime 601-660 
Subprime 500-600 
Deep subprime 300-499 
VantageScore®, which is used by lenders 
and now available to consumers, is the first 
credit score developed cooperatively by 
Experian and the other national credit 
reporting companies. 
The VantageScore 3.0 model ranges from 
300 - 850 with a high score = low risk. 
Note: Each lender determines credit quality tiers according to their own lending strategies. The credit tier breakdown is offered only 
as an approximation. 
VantageScore is a registered trademark of VantageScore Solutions, LLC.
Figure 1 - Consumer Credit Product Outstanding 
Balances Since 2006 
180 
160 
140 
120 
100 
80 
60 
40 
20 
0 
Index, 2006 Q1 =100 
Bankcards 
Mortgages 
HELOCs 
Home Equity Loans 
3 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 
Experian Public 
Quarter 
Auto Loans and Leases 
Personal Loans
Figure 2 - Auto Loan and Lease Outstandings By 
Financial Institution Type 
$1,000 
$900 
$800 
$700 
$600 
$500 
$400 
$300 
$200 
$100 
$0 
Outstandings in $billions 
All Auto Loans and Leases 
Captive Auto Banks 
Credit Unions 
Finance Companies 
Quarter 
4 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 
Experian Public
Figure 3 - Auto Loan and Lease Outstandings By 
Credit Grade 
$300 
$250 
$200 
$150 
$100 
$50 
$0 
Outstandings in $billions 
Near-prime 
Prime Subprime 
Quarter 
Super-prime 
Deep Subprime 
5 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 
Experian Public
Figure 4 - Auto Loan and Lease Outstandings By 
Credit Grade 2014-Q2 
45% 
40% 
35% 
30% 
25% 
20% 
15% 
10% 
5% 
0% 
Existing APRs Above Column 
3.84% 
2.67% 
Super-prime 
Prime 
5.99% 
Near-prime 
Subprime 
Deep Subprime 
4.79% 
7.75% 
11.52% 
8.07% 
4.38% 
3.39% 
6.44% 
9.07% 
17.93% 
13.29% 
6.71% 
3.78% 
13.83% 9.38% 11.06% 
Banks Captive Auto Credit Union Finance 
Proportion of Oustandings 
3.61% 
19.35% 
6 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 
Experian Public
Figure 5 - Auto Loan and Lease Outstandings By 
Credit Grade- Banks 
45% 
40% 
35% 
30% 
25% 
20% 
15% 
10% 
5% 
0% 
Proportion of Outstandings 
Near-prime 
Quarter 
Prime 
Super-prime 
Subprime 
Deep Subprime 
7 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 
Experian Public
Figure 6 - Auto Loan and Lease Outstandings By 
Credit Grade- Finance Companies 
50% 
45% 
40% 
35% 
30% 
25% 
20% 
15% 
10% 
5% 
0% 
Proportion of Outstandings 
Quarter 
Deep Subprime 
Subprime 
Near-prime 
Super-prime 
Prime 
8 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 
Experian Public
Figure 7 - Auto Loan and Lease Delinquency Rates 
5.00% 
4.50% 
4.00% 
3.50% 
3.00% 
2.50% 
2.00% 
1.50% 
1.00% 
0.50% 
0.00% 
Delinquency Rates (% of Outstandings) 
30+ Day Delinquency Rate 
30-59 Days Past Due 
90+ Days Past Due 
Quarter 
60-89 Days Past Due 
9 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 
Experian Public
Figure 8 - Auto Loan/Lease 30+ Day Delinquency 
Rates By Financial Institution 
14.00% 
12.00% 
10.00% 
8.00% 
6.00% 
4.00% 
2.00% 
0.00% 
30+ Delinquency Rate 
Quarter 
Finance Companies 
Captive Auto 
Credit Unions 
Banks 
10 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 
Experian Public
Figure 9 - Auto Loan/Lease 60+ Day Delinquency 
Rates By Financial Institution 
6.00% 
5.00% 
4.00% 
3.00% 
2.00% 
1.00% 
0.00% 
60+ Day Delinquency Rate 
Banks 
Credit Unions Captive Auto 
Quarter 
Finance Companies 
11 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 
Experian Public
Figure 10 - Auto Loan/Lease 90+ Day Delinquency 
Rates By Financial Institution 
3.50% 
3.00% 
2.50% 
2.00% 
1.50% 
1.00% 
0.50% 
0.00% 
90+ Day Delinquency Rate 
Captive Auto 
Quarter 
Finance Companies 
Credit Unions 
Banks 
12 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 
Experian Public
13 Stay ahead of the trends 
with Experian IntelliView 
©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 
Experian Public. 
Public 
Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report 
IntelliView 
 A unique combination of industry leading assets 
from Experian and Oliver Wyman 
 Current Experian – Oliver Wyman Market 
Intelligence Reports in an online format 
– Hundreds of pre-defined reports 
– Create custom reports and views using 
intuitive prompts 
– Download instantly to PDF or MS Excel 
 24 x 7 access to timely and invaluable information 
given current economic and credit volatility 
 Automatic quarterly updates 
 Wide range of consumer lending products 
 Origination, outstanding loans and credit 
performance trends 
 Industry benchmarking
Jerry Podczaski 
Senior Business Consultant 
Experian Decision Analytics’ Global Consulting Practice 
Jerry Podczaski brings a formidable record of U.S. and international consulting successes within the 
financial services industry to Experian. Podczaski has been a management consultant in the financial 
services industry for the past eight years. Prior to that, he spent seventeen years in executive roles at large 
financial service companies such as Wells Fargo and Nations Bank. His area of expertise is credit risk 
management. 
Jerry Podczaski has unique experience, with an understanding of every major consumer lending product 
(mortgages, home equity lending, credit cards, auto lending), as well as small business lending. He brings 
deep, rich expertise in optimizing credit and risk infrastructure, incorporating methodologies, policies, 
controls, compliance, systems, people, and processes. Podczaski is a respected leader and mentor with 
superior skills in change management. 
An accomplished SAS programmer, Podczaski’s skill provides the ability for data analytics that compliments 
his long experience. 
“Working with a client and building an understanding of their business and 
circumstances excites me. I enjoy creating relationships that prevail. 
14 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 
Experian Public
©2012 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 
15 Experian Public Public. 
Discover how an Experian business 
consultant can help you strengthen 
your credit and risk management 
strategies and processes: 
http://ex.pn/DA_GCP

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Auto lending naysayers are neglecting key facts - part 2

  • 1. Auto Lending Naysayers Are Neglecting Key Facts Part II Jerry Podczaski, Global Consulting Practice, Experian Decision Analytics ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public
  • 2. 2 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Public Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report VantageScore Overview VantageScore Credit Tiers Super prime 781-850 Prime 661-780 Near prime 601-660 Subprime 500-600 Deep subprime 300-499 VantageScore®, which is used by lenders and now available to consumers, is the first credit score developed cooperatively by Experian and the other national credit reporting companies. The VantageScore 3.0 model ranges from 300 - 850 with a high score = low risk. Note: Each lender determines credit quality tiers according to their own lending strategies. The credit tier breakdown is offered only as an approximation. VantageScore is a registered trademark of VantageScore Solutions, LLC.
  • 3. Figure 1 - Consumer Credit Product Outstanding Balances Since 2006 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Index, 2006 Q1 =100 Bankcards Mortgages HELOCs Home Equity Loans 3 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public Quarter Auto Loans and Leases Personal Loans
  • 4. Figure 2 - Auto Loan and Lease Outstandings By Financial Institution Type $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Outstandings in $billions All Auto Loans and Leases Captive Auto Banks Credit Unions Finance Companies Quarter 4 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public
  • 5. Figure 3 - Auto Loan and Lease Outstandings By Credit Grade $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Outstandings in $billions Near-prime Prime Subprime Quarter Super-prime Deep Subprime 5 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public
  • 6. Figure 4 - Auto Loan and Lease Outstandings By Credit Grade 2014-Q2 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Existing APRs Above Column 3.84% 2.67% Super-prime Prime 5.99% Near-prime Subprime Deep Subprime 4.79% 7.75% 11.52% 8.07% 4.38% 3.39% 6.44% 9.07% 17.93% 13.29% 6.71% 3.78% 13.83% 9.38% 11.06% Banks Captive Auto Credit Union Finance Proportion of Oustandings 3.61% 19.35% 6 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public
  • 7. Figure 5 - Auto Loan and Lease Outstandings By Credit Grade- Banks 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Proportion of Outstandings Near-prime Quarter Prime Super-prime Subprime Deep Subprime 7 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public
  • 8. Figure 6 - Auto Loan and Lease Outstandings By Credit Grade- Finance Companies 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Proportion of Outstandings Quarter Deep Subprime Subprime Near-prime Super-prime Prime 8 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public
  • 9. Figure 7 - Auto Loan and Lease Delinquency Rates 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Delinquency Rates (% of Outstandings) 30+ Day Delinquency Rate 30-59 Days Past Due 90+ Days Past Due Quarter 60-89 Days Past Due 9 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public
  • 10. Figure 8 - Auto Loan/Lease 30+ Day Delinquency Rates By Financial Institution 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 30+ Delinquency Rate Quarter Finance Companies Captive Auto Credit Unions Banks 10 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public
  • 11. Figure 9 - Auto Loan/Lease 60+ Day Delinquency Rates By Financial Institution 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 60+ Day Delinquency Rate Banks Credit Unions Captive Auto Quarter Finance Companies 11 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public
  • 12. Figure 10 - Auto Loan/Lease 90+ Day Delinquency Rates By Financial Institution 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 90+ Day Delinquency Rate Captive Auto Quarter Finance Companies Credit Unions Banks 12 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public
  • 13. 13 Stay ahead of the trends with Experian IntelliView ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Public Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report IntelliView  A unique combination of industry leading assets from Experian and Oliver Wyman  Current Experian – Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports in an online format – Hundreds of pre-defined reports – Create custom reports and views using intuitive prompts – Download instantly to PDF or MS Excel  24 x 7 access to timely and invaluable information given current economic and credit volatility  Automatic quarterly updates  Wide range of consumer lending products  Origination, outstanding loans and credit performance trends  Industry benchmarking
  • 14. Jerry Podczaski Senior Business Consultant Experian Decision Analytics’ Global Consulting Practice Jerry Podczaski brings a formidable record of U.S. and international consulting successes within the financial services industry to Experian. Podczaski has been a management consultant in the financial services industry for the past eight years. Prior to that, he spent seventeen years in executive roles at large financial service companies such as Wells Fargo and Nations Bank. His area of expertise is credit risk management. Jerry Podczaski has unique experience, with an understanding of every major consumer lending product (mortgages, home equity lending, credit cards, auto lending), as well as small business lending. He brings deep, rich expertise in optimizing credit and risk infrastructure, incorporating methodologies, policies, controls, compliance, systems, people, and processes. Podczaski is a respected leader and mentor with superior skills in change management. An accomplished SAS programmer, Podczaski’s skill provides the ability for data analytics that compliments his long experience. “Working with a client and building an understanding of their business and circumstances excites me. I enjoy creating relationships that prevail. 14 ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public
  • 15. ©2012 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 15 Experian Public Public. Discover how an Experian business consultant can help you strengthen your credit and risk management strategies and processes: http://ex.pn/DA_GCP