Presentation given by Andrew Waugh, Consultant, UK at a FEANTSA seminar on "Homelessness in public and private spaces: Mind the policy gap!
Local strategies to address the different faces of homelessness", hosted by the Committee of the Regions, June 2010
2024 03 13 AZ GOP LD4 Gen Meeting Minutes_FINAL.docx
Homelessness and housing needs assessments
1. Homeless and Housing Need
Assessments
Helping Scottish local authorities assess their
capacity to meet homelessness legislation
Dr. Andrew Waugh
Brussels
4 June 2010
2. Overview
• Homelessness and Housing Need Assessments
• The Scottish Example
• Impact of implementing legislative changes across local
authorities
• Testing effectiveness of policy interventions
• Conclusions
3. Homelessness and Housing Need
Assessments
• Housing Need Assessments
• project need for housing across all tenures into the future
• Should take into account demand for homelessness
• Often involves a large survey
• Homelessness is a subset of wider housing need?
• Can measure need arising from homelessness using
the Waugh Model
• Mathematical model of the homelessness and social housing
system
• Don’t need a survey
5. Housing (Scotland) Act 2001
• Temporary Accommodation for
all homeless households until
discharge of duty
• Permanent accommodation
• Modernised Right to Buy
6. Homelessness etc. (Scotland) Act 2003
• Extension, then abolition of the priority need test by
the end of 2012 – 'the 2012 target'
• Power replaces duty to investigate intentionality
• Suspension of the local connection provision.
Homeless
Priority Need Intentionality
Local Connection
7. What will the impact be on...?
• Number of temporary accommodation places
needed
• Time spent in temporary accommodation
• Number and proportion of lets required by
homeless households into the future
• Will all Local Authorities manage?
8. Who has this work been done for?
• Initially for six individual local authorities in
Scotland
– Renfrewshire,
– South Ayrshire,
– North Ayrshire,
– Aberdeen,
– Dumfries & Galloway
– Stirling
• The Scottish Government
– all 32 local authorities and also a national picture
9. The Waugh Model
Homelessness
Stock Model
+ System Model
Supply Demand
local authority level
10. Local Authority (LA) Tenancy Dynamics
other waiting list lets
decants
homeless LA to LA LA decants
lets to RSL
Core Demo
terminations
terminations
RTBs Core stock – has a future
Demolition stock – needs to be pulled down
11. Homelessness System Model
applications • Inputs (things we try to control)
– The number of applications + assessments
– Number of lets to homeless households
• Outputs (results)
– Number of households in the system
– Time spent in the system
Temporary accommodation
lets
12. Homelessness System Model
Local Authority
Priority RSL
Need Private Lets
Other
Non Local Authority
Priority Other
Temporary Accommodation = constant x (Assess +PN + NonPN)
13. Continue 2006/7 Position
• Homelessness levels as at 2006/7
• All landlords maintain fixed % of lets
• New Build distributed as in last 3 years
16. Continue 2006/7 Position
• Massive growth in:
– Number of households in temporary accommodation
– Time spent in temporary accommodation
– …Temporary accommodation budgets?
• Difficulty for Local Authorities
• Bad for homeless people
• We need to avoid this happening
17. Possible Actions and Policy Interventions
• Increase lets to avoid increase in temporary
accommodation
• Modify Right to Buy
• Make greater use of the private sector
– minimum of:
• 20% of homeless outcomes or
• 10% of lets in the PRS
• Increase prevention work further
• Redistribute new build
18. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Shetland 100%
Renfrewshire
South Ayrshire
Glasgow City
Inverclyde
Dundee City
Aberdeen City
East Ayrshire
Fife
Scottish Borders
Aberdeenshire
Eilean Siar
Midlothian
Argyll & Bute
West Dunbartonshire
North Lanarkshire
Dumfries & Galloway
South Lanarkshire
East Renfrewshire
accommodation
Angus
Perth & Kinross
North Ayrshire
Highland
Falkirk
Orkney
Edinburgh
Stirling
East Dunbartonshire
West Lothian
Moray
East Lothian
Clackmannanshire
LAs only increase lets to avoid an increase in temporary
19. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Shetland 100%
Renfrewshire
Inverclyde
Glasgow City
Argyll & Bute
Scottish Borders
Eilean Siar
Midlothian
South Ayrshire
Dundee City
East Ayrshire
Fife
Aberdeen City
Aberdeenshire
East Renfrewshire
Angus
West Dunbartonshire
Dumfries & Galloway
West Lothian
Highland
Perth & Kinross
North Ayrshire
temporary accommodation
South Lanarkshire
North Lanarkshire
Falkirk
Orkney
Edinburgh
East Dunbartonshire
Stirling
Moray
Clackmannanshire
All social landlords increase lets to avoid an increase in
East Lothian
20. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Shetland 100%
Argyll & Bute
Renfrewshire
Inverclyde
Scottish Borders
Glasgow City
Dundee City
Midlothian
South Ayrshire
Aberdeen City
Eilean Siar
East Ayrshire
Aberdeenshire
Fife
East Renfrewshire
Angus
Highland
Perth & Kinross
West Dunbartonshire
Orkney
Dumfries & Galloway
Stirling
West Lothian
Falkirk
South Lanarkshire
Edinburgh
North Ayrshire
North Lanarkshire
East Dunbartonshire
Moray
East Lothian
Clackmannanshire
… and completely suspend RTB
21. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Shetland 100%
Argyll & Bute
Renfrewshire
Inverclyde
Glasgow City
Scottish Borders
South Ayrshire
Midlothian
Dundee City
Aberdeen City
Eilean Siar
East Ayrshire
Aberdeenshire
Fife
East Renfrewshire
Angus
Highland
Perth & Kinross
Dumfries & Galloway
West Lothian
Stirling
Orkney
West Dunbartonshire
Falkirk
South Lanarkshire
North Ayrshire
North Lanarkshire
Edinburgh
East Dunbartonshire
to avoid an increase in temporary accommodation
Moray
East Lothian
Clackmannanshire
All social landlords +Private Rented Sector increase lets
22. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Shetland 100%
Midlothian
Eilean Siar
Argyll & Bute
Renfrewshire
Inverclyde
Scottish Borders
Dundee City
Glasgow City
East Ayrshire
South Ayrshire
Aberdeen City
Fife
East Renfrewshire
Aberdeenshire
West Dunbartonshire
Angus
Dumfries & Galloway
Perth & Kinross
Falkirk
North Ayrshire
West Lothian
Highland
South Lanarkshire
North Lanarkshire
Edinburgh
Orkney
East Dunbartonshire
Stirling
Moray
Clackmannanshire
East Lothian
Prevention of 2.5 percent per annum…
23. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Renfrewshire 100%
Shetland
Inverclyde
Scottish Borders
Glasgow City
South Ayrshire
Dundee City
Argyll & Bute
East Ayrshire
Eilean Siar
Fife
Aberdeen City
Aberdeenshire
East Renfrewshire
Midlothian
Angus
West Dunbartonshire
Dumfries & Galloway
West Lothian
Highland
Perth & Kinross
North Ayrshire
South Lanarkshire
North Lanarkshire
Falkirk
Orkney
Edinburgh
East Dunbartonshire
Stirling
Moray
East Lothian
Clackmannanshire
...but with an increase of 2.5 percent per annum!
24. Redistributed New Build
•Assume homelessness remains at 2006/7 levels
•Assume LAs and RSLs contribute same proportion of lets
•Assume no additional contribution from PRS
Units
Maximum % of all completions
lets to homeless required in
2013/14
50% 7,447
60% 3,955
70% 1,746
25. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Renfrewshire 100%
Shetland
Glasgow City
Inverclyde
Scottish Borders
Dundee City
South Ayrshire
Midlothian
Aberdeen City
East Ayrshire
Fife
Argyll & Bute
Aberdeenshire
Eilean Siar
Falkirk
Stirling
Highland
West Dunbartonshire
Dumfries & Galloway
East Lothian
West Lothian
Edinburgh
Angus
East Dunbartonshire
Clackmannanshire
South Lanarkshire
North Lanarkshire
Moray
Orkney
Perth & Kinross
North Ayrshire
East Renfrewshire
Redistributed New Build – 60%
26. Units per year
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Aberdeen City
Dundee City
East Ayrshire
Falkirk
Glasgow City
Inverclyde
Renfrewshire
Scottish Borders
Shetland
West Dunbartonshire
Clackmannanshire
Orkney
Angus
Eilean Siar
Stirling
Waugh
Fife
Argyll & Bute
North Lanarkshire
Bramley
South Ayrshire
Moray
North Ayrshire
East Lothian
Aberdeenshire
South Lanarkshire
Dumfries & Galloway
Comparison of Waugh Model (2011/12) and Bramley Model Results (2011)
West Lothian
Midlothian
Perth & Kinross
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
Highland
City of Edinburgh
Homelessness vs. wider Housing Need
27. 0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Aberdeen City
Dundee City
East Ayrshire
Falkirk
Glasgow City
Inverclyde
Renfrewshire
Scottish Borders
Shetland
West Dunbartonshire
Clackmannanshire
Orkney
Angus
Eilean Siar
Stirling
Fife
Baseline
Argyll & Bute
North Lanarkshire
Bramley
South Ayrshire
Baseline vs Bramley in 2011
Moray
North Ayrshire
East Lothian
Aberdeenshire
South Lanarkshire
Dumfries & Galloway
West Lothian
Midlothian
Perth & Kinross
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
Highland
City of Edinburgh
Where we have been building
29. The benefit of using the Waugh Model for
individual local authorities?
• Determine need arising from homelessness
without a survey
• Argue to local councillors and others why the
current position was unsustainable
• Assess which policy interventions, or
combinations of intervention might help.
• Additionally, which interventions would be of
very limited assistance.
• A strong evidence base to lobby the Scottish
Government for increased funding
30. The benefit of using the Waugh Model for
the Scottish Government?
• Provided Ministers with an assessment of their
commitment to implement the 2012 target using
already available data
• Quantified the impact – more than just words
• Provided evidence to argue for change:
– the Right to Buy
– greater use of the private rented sector
– allocation of new build units
– Increasing new build