1. 1
Rising Foreign Capital Trend into U.S. Commercial Real Estate
Interest Rates - With low and even negative interest rates around
the world, foreign investors are looking cross boarder in the search
for yield. Germany, France, Netherlands, Switzerland, and
Japan all report 10-year government bond yields below 1.0%.2
With average pre-tax yield rates of 6.7% to 9.3%,3
depending on property type, core U.S. real estate offers an
attractive risk premium for foreign investors willing to brave
currency risk.
Global Economy - Sluggish growth in Europe and uncertainty in
China are drawing investors to the U.S. in the search for stability.
With annualized Real GDP of 1.6% and virtually no inflation in the
Eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) is aggressively trying
to stimulate the economy with easy monetary policy.4
In the March
policy meeting, the ECB lowered the deposit rate 10 basis points to
-0.4% and expanded asset purchase programs. The negative
interest rate policies emerging in both Europe and Asia are
creating a new source of uncertainty themselves as central banks
begin to move into uncharted waters. In China, we have seen
currency devaluation in an effort to boost exports amid slowing
growth. With continued strength in domestic labor markets, the
U.S. should continue to draw capital from Europe and Asia as they
work through economic headwinds.
Despite reduced buying power resulting from the strengthening United States dollar (USD), foreign capital flows into U.S. commercial real
estate more than doubled in 2015 to unprecedented levels. While growth was broad based, foreign investment was particularly strong
from Asia where inflows increased roughly $19.6 billion or 159%.1
The increased foreign demand has had a positive impact on price ap-
preciation and can be attributed to a number of drivers including the low global interest rate environment, global economic uncertainties,
and regulatory changes. In light of these demand drivers, we expect foreign capital flows into U.S. commercial real estate to continue to
trend above historical norms over the near-term but if flows decrease significantly or reverse course, expect downward pressure on asset
valuations.
FIRPTA & EB-5 - A number of provisions were recently changed in
the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA) that
provide increased opportunities for non-U.S. investors. The changes
effectively increase the amount of capital foreign investors can
invest in public U.S. REIT stocks before becoming subject to FIRPTA
taxes.5
Extension of the EB-5 program is another law that will
continue to generate foreign capital flows into new U.S. real estate
developments. EB-5 is a program were foreign nationals can invest
money in the U.S. and receive a green card. An Individual must
invest at least $1,000,000 (or $500,000 in Targeted Employment
Areas) and create or preserve 10 jobs. With regional centers pooling
foreign investors, EB-5 is becoming an increasingly popular source
of equity capital in new real estate development.
Real Capital Analytics, US Capital Trend, 2015 Year Review
Yahoo! Finance, CCT, 2015
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market Overview
First Quarter 2016
Applied Research
Refer to endnotes for sources
www.aegonrealty.com We use our investment management expertise to help people achieve a lifetime of financial security
Overall, conditions are favorable for continued capital flows into U.S. commercial real estate in the near-term but the abundance of
capital from both foreign and domestic sources are cause for concern for the long-term durability of current asset values.
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2. 2
Annual Data, CoStar Portfolio Strategy, 2015 Q4
CoStar Portfolio Strategy, 2015 Q4
*Leaders have a favorable vacancy trend and rent growth of 3% or higher.
**Laggards have an unfavorable vacancy trend and rent growth of 0% or lower.
Top And Bottom Trending Markets (Year Over Year)
Vacancy Rent ($/Unit)
Leaders* 14Q4 15Q4 CHANGE 14Q4 15Q4 CHANGE
Tampa 4.8% 3.6% -1.2% $952 $1026 7.8%
Las Vegas 5.9% 4.8% -1.1% $786 $ 842 7.2%
Indianapolis 7.1% 6.2% -0.9% $753 $ 788 4.7%
Jacksonville 5.3% 4.5% -0.8% $852 $ 915 7.5%
San Antonio 6.5% 5.7% -0.8% $862 $ 908 5.3%
Laggards**
All national markets experienced positive rent growth
MSA Count Based on Vacancy
Favorable Vacancy Trend: 28
Unfavorable Vacancy Trend: 25
Neutral Vacancy Trend: 1
Total MSAs: 54
MSA Count Based on Rent
Rent Growth Above 0%: 54
Rent Growth Below 0%: 0
Neutral Rent: 0
Total MSAs: 54
APARTMENT
Apartment vacancy was 3.9% in 2015 Q4, down from 4.0%
a year ago.6
Apartment cap rates decreased 30 bps to 5.8%
from 6.1% a year ago.7
Sales volume for apartment properties in the fourth quarter
totaled $50.5 billion, up 43.3% from a year ago.7
Apartment prices increased 12.9% from a year ago, and were
37.5% above the 2007 peak.8
“In most years, transaction volume for the office sector is
ahead of that for the apartment sector but more capital was
invested in the apartment sector than any other in 2015.
In many sectors, strong growth in portfolio sales and entity
level deals provided the lift to volume for 2015. For the
apartment sector however, growth in the sale of individual
assets was still strong, up 28.0% yoy. Deal volume grew in
2015 even as prices continued to rise. Initial estimates of the
Moody’s/RCA CPPITM suggest that prices increased 13.0%
yoy. This growth is not bad, but it is the weakest year of price
growth since 2010.”18
*Effective Apartment Rent- The actual rent after deducting the
value of concessions from the base
rental rate paid by tenant.
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VacancyRate
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Completion Net Absorption Vacancy Rate
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market Overview
First Quarter 2016
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-6%
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'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
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3. 3
CoStar Portfolio Strategy, 2015 Q4
*Leaders have a favorable vacancy trend and rent growth of 3% or higher.
**Laggards have an unfavorable vacancy trend and rent growth of 0% or lower.
Annual Data, CoStar Portfolio Strategy, 2015 Q4
OFFICE
The office vacancy rate dropped to 10.8% in 2015 Q4
from 11.3% a year ago.6
Transaction volume was $39 billion in 2015 Q4, down 2.0%
from a year ago. Cap rates fell in both CBD and Suburban
locales in Q4. In the suburbs, the decline was 16 bps
from a year earlier with a 7.0% national average while CBD
office cap rates compressed 14 bps to 5.8%.7
Office prices are 18.7% above the 2007 peak. CBD office
prices are up 16.6% from a year ago, while suburban
prices are up only 9.0%.8
“The breadth of the U.S. office market is one of its greatest
strengths. Having options provides value. Secondary office
markets are experiencing higher levels of investment for
just this reason, somewhat greater volatility priced by
higher yields, and the ability to accommodate fast-
growing companies with a volume of new construction
at costs much lower than that available in the primary
downtowns. Interviewees spoke of “pocket markets,”
conversions and redevelopments, and opportunities to
reposition struggling suburban office parks with vast
parking into more effective mixed use.”10
Top And Bottom Trending Markets (Year Over Year)
Vacancy Rent ($/Unit)
Leaders* 14Q4 15Q4 CHANGE 14Q34 15Q4 CHANGE
San Jose 10.0% 7.1% -2.9% $34.70 $38.40 10.8%
East Bay 10.7% 8.6% -2.1% $24.20 $26.50 9.4%
Miami 11.9% 10.0% -1.9% $29.00 $30.40 4.9%
Atlanta 13.9% 12.2% -1.7% $18.60 $19.60 5.7%
Nashville 6.9% 5.3% -1.6% $20.10 $21.60 7.8%
Laggards**
There were 0 out of 54 MSAs with both unfavorable vacancy trends and negative rent growth.
MSA Count Based on Vacancy
Favorable Vacancy Trend: 44
Unfavorable Vacancy Trend: 7
Neutral Vacancy Trend: 3
Total MSAs: 54
MSA Count Based on Rent
Rent Growth Above 0%: 52
Rent Growth Below 0%: 2
Neutral Rent: 0
Total MSAs: 54
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
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VacancyRate
MillionSquareFeet
Office Market
Completion Net Absorption Vacancy Rate
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market Overview
First Quarter 2016
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-10%
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'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Year-over-yeargrowth
Office Asking Rent
4. 4
INDUSTRIAL
The industrial vacancy rate dropped to 5.9% in 2015 Q4
from 6.5% a year ago.6
Transaction volume was $25.7 billion in 2015 Q4, up
66.0% from a year ago. Cap rates fell 30 bps from last year
to 6.7%.7
Industrial property prices are up 6.9% from a year ago, and
are 2.8% above the 2007 peak.8
“As it did last year, warehouse industrial ranks as the top pick
among investors with regard to investment prospects in the
year ahead, according to Emerging Trends in Real Estate®
2016, published by PwC and ULI. Specifically, industrial/
distribution scored a 3.63 on a scale of 1 (abysmal) to 5
(excellent), just above multifamily with a score of 3.50 and
office with a score of 3.43. The results of this year’s
Emerging Trends report also awarded the industrial sector
its highest score since 2004. Looking ahead, all Survey
participants see values rising in this market over the next
12 months. The highest expected value increase is 10.0%
– the average increase is 3.3%.” 9
Annual Data, CoStar Portfolio Strategy, 2015 Q4
CoStar Portfolio Strategy, 2015 Q4
*Leaders have a favorable vacancy trend and rent growth of 3% or higher.
**Laggards have an unfavorable vacancy trend and rent growth of 0% or lower.
Top And Bottom Trending Markets (Year Over Year)
Vacancy Rent ($/Unit)
Leaders* 14Q4 15Q4 CHANGE 14Q4 15Q4 CHANGE
Austin 8.2% 5.6% -2.6% $7.50 $ 8.10 8.9%
Memphis 12.6% 10.2% -2.4% $2.80 $ 2.90 3.2%
Las Vegas 8.2% 5.9% -2.3% $5.80 $ 6.30 8.6%
Raleigh 7.2% 4.9% -2.3% $5.00 $ 5.30 6.5%
San Diego 5.7% 3.8% -1.9% $9.80 $10.30 5.3%
Laggards**
All national markets experienced positive rent growth
MSA Count Based on Vacancy
Favorable Vacancy Trend: 45
Unfavorable Vacancy Trend: 7
Neutral Vacancy Trend: 2
Total MSAs: 54
MSA Count Based on Rent
Rent Growth Above 0%: 53
Rent Growth Below 0%: 0
Neutral Rent: 1
Total MSAs: 54
0%
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8%
12%
16%
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VacancyRate
MillionSquareFeet
Industrial Market
Completion Net Absorption Vacancy Rate
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market Overview
First Quarter 2016
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-8%
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Industrial Asking Rent
5. 5
Annual Data, CoStar Portfolio Strategy, 2015 Q4
CoStar Portfolio Strategy, 2015 Q4
*Leaders have a favorable vacancy trend and rent growth of 3% or higher.
**Laggards have an unfavorable vacancy trend and rent growth of 0% or lower.
RETAIL
Retail vacancy decreased to 5.8% in 2015 Q4, down from
6.1% a year ago.6
Cap rates for the retail sector fell 20 bps
from a year earlier to 6.4% in Q4. Total sales volume for
Q4 was $21.3 billion, down 16.0% from a year earlier.7
Retail property prices increased 12.6% from a year ago,
but are 2.4% below the 2007 peak.8
“Little movement in the vacancy rate for U.S. regional malls
and the ambiguity of U.S. interest rate increases have
some investors feeling uneasy about investing in this
property type. The trepidation felt by some investors with
regard to regional mall investing is noted in this market’s
average initial-year market rent change rate assumption,
which slips 20 basis points this quarter and represents the
first quarterly drop for this key indicator in the past year.
Moreover, in Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2016,
published by PwC and ULI, regional malls placed last
among the 16 commercial/multifamily subsectors included
in the report with regard to both investment and develop-
ment prospects for the year ahead.” 9
Top And Bottom Trending Markets (Year Over Year)
Vacancy Rent ($/Unit)
Leaders* 14Q4 15Q4 CHANGE 14Q4 15Q4 CHANGE
Austin 4.8% 3.8% -1.0% $18.00 $19.37 7.6%
Palm Beach County 6.3% 5.5% -0.8% $18.19 $19.47 7.0%
Orlando 6.6% 5.9% -0.7% $14.84 $15.51 4.5%
Phoenix 10.1% 9.5% -0.6% $13.90 $14.37 3.4%
Raleigh 5.1% 4.5% -0.6% $14.91 $15.98 7.2%
Laggards**
Philadelphia 6.0% 6.3% 0.3% $15.6 $15.6 -0.3%
MSA Count Based on Vacancy
Favorable Vacancy Trend: 39
Unfavorable Vacancy Trend: 6
Neutral Vacancy Trend: 9
Total MSAs: 54
MSA Count Based on Rent
Rent Growth Above 0%: 40
Rent Growth Below 0%: 14
Neutral Rent: 0
Total MSAs: 54
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VacancyRate
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Retail Market
Completion Net Absorption Vacancy Rate
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market Overview
First Quarter 2016
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-8%
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Retail Asking Rent
6. 60-DAY DELINQUENCY RATES
Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15
Office 7.8% 5.6% 5.4%
Industrial 9.8% 7.1% 5.2%
Retail 5.7% 5.3% 5.4%
Apartment 5.1% 3.7% 2.6%
Lodging 7.2% 4.2% 2.6%
Total 6.3% 4.7% 4.0%
HIGHEST AND LOWEST DELINQUENCY RATES by MSA
($ Balance in millions, includes Apartment, Retail, Industrial, and Office, top 50 MSAs, Trepp downloaded November 2015)
Highest Delinquent Balance 60+ Days Lowest Delinquent Balance 60+Days
Providence, RI $147 10.0% San Jose, CA $0 0.0%
Cleveland, OH $287 10.0% Portland, OR $5 0.1%
Jacksonville, FL $286 9.9% New Orleans, LA $3 0.2%
Richmond, VA $203 8.9% Salt Lake City, UT $9 0.4%
Buffalo, NY $101 8.8% Austin, TX $40 0.6%
Pittsburgh, PA $217 7.9% Houston, TX $167 1.0%
Las Vegas, NV $465 6.8% Louisville, KY $20 1.0%
Detroit, MI $392 6.6% San Antonio, TX $47 1.1%
Raleigh, NC $161 5.7% San Francisco, CA $112 1.3%
Birmingham, AL $100 5.6% Seattle, WA $114 1.4%
6
CMBS DELINQUENCY
The percentage of loans seriously delinquent*
was
3.97% in December 201511
, down from 4.7% a year
ago. The percentage of loans seriously delinquent
peaked at 9.2% in July 2012.
The retail sector was the most improved sector in
December, increased 0.09% from a year ago. The
other four sectors all decreased, with industrial
declining 1.9%, lodging declining 1.6%, apartment
declining 1.1% and office declining 0.3%.
* Loan 60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure, REO, or non-performing
1
Seriously delinquent percentage may not match Trepp’s monthly
report.
Trepp, December, 2015
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CMBS Delinquency Rates
60 Days Delinquent Including Non-Performing Balances
Apartment Industrial Office Retail Lodging
Recessions
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First Quarter 2016
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7. CAP RATES (RERC)
2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4
Office 6.1% 5.8% 5.6% 5.4%
Industrial 6.6% 6.4% 6.0% 6.0%
Apartment 5.4% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8%
Retail 6.6% 6.7% 6.2% 5.9%
7
TRANSACTION VOLUME
Sales of commercial real estate totaled $157 billion in
2015 Q4, up 19.5% from a year ago. The industrial
sector was the most improved, recording a 66.0% year-
over-year increase in sales volume. The retail (-16.0%)
and office (-2.0%) sectors recorded volume decreased,
while the apartment properties (+43.3%) saw an
increase in volume.
CAP RATES
Cap rates continued to fall in Q4 across all property
types except Industrial which remained the same
from a year ago. The retail sector had the most cap
rate compression, declining 30 basis points from a
year ago.
Real Capital Analytics, 2015 Q4
Situs RERC, 2015 Q4
Number of Properties sold
2006 Q4 (Peak) 2009 Q1 (Trough) 2015 Q4
Office 1,577 261 1,482
Industrial 1,416 275 2,537
Apartment 1,825 376 2,066
Retail 1,903 351 1,795
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market Overview
First Quarter 2016
Applied Research
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$(40)
$(20)
$-
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Billions
Commercial Real Estate Transaction Volume
All Property Types - Quarterly
Average Transaction Size
Millions
$16 m
$22 m
$8.6 m
$20 bn
$158 bn
$115 bn
$17.6 m
$14 bn
$16 m
$22 m
$20 bn
$158 bn
$115 bn
$20
$0
4.5%
6.5%
8.5%
10.5%
'94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15
Apartment Industrial Office Retail
Commercial Real Estate Cap Rates
Quarterly
Recessions
8. 0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
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Rent Index
Apartment Industrial Office Retail
Recessions
8
NCREIF
The trailing one-year return for the NCREIF
property index (NPI) increased to 13.5% in Q4
2015. The NPI is a measure of unlevered private
equity returns as determined through application
of an appraisal-based exit price.
December 1, 2015
RENTS
Rent levels in the fourth quarter rose modestly
across all property types. The Apartment sector
reported the highest growth in 2015 Q4, with
effective rents 6.0% higher than a year ago.
Annual rates (appreciation + income)
NCREIF, 2015 Q4
CoStar Portfolio Strategy, 2015 Q4
Industrial +5.9%
Office +4.4%
Retail +2.1%
Apartment +6.0%
Rent Index From a Year Ago
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-30%
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NCREIF Property Index (NPI)
Apartment Industrial Office Retail
Recessions
* Industrial, Office and Retail industry are using Asking rent as a standard
for rent index.
* Apartment industry is using Effective rent as a standard for rent index.
9. 9
RETAIL SALES
Nonstore retail (primarily internet sales) were $125
billion in the fourth quarter of 2015, up 6.8% from a
year ago.
Retail sales, excluding nonstore, were $1.3 trillion in
the fourth quarter, up 2.0% from a year ago.
Comparing retail sales categories, gasoline stations
declined the most from a year ago (-18.5%).
Electronics and appliance stores also declined
(-4.5%). Food services and drinking places (+6.7%)
and Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (+6.0%) in-
creased from a year ago.
U.S. Census Bureau, December, 2015
CoStar Portfolio Strategy, 2015 Q4
NONSTORE SHARE OF RETAIL
Nonstore (Billions) % Of All Retail Sales
2000Q4 $48 5.8%
2005Q4 $67 6.5%
2010Q4 $88 8.0%
2015Q4 $125 9.3%
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
The Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 92.2,
down 5.9 points from January 2016. The Consumer
Sentiment Index was 91.7 in February, down from the
final January read of 92.0.
“Consumer confidence slumped in February as
households grew more concerned about the out-
look for the economy and job. Americans said they
believed the high-flying job market wouldn’t get
much better as they turned the most pessimistic
about the outlook for stock prices in more than three
years. While buying plans for automobiles held up,
households said they were less likely to buy homes
or major appliances, raising concern about the
strength of consumer spending, the biggest part of
the economy.”12
Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, 26 February, 2016
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, 23 February, 2016
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First Quarter 2016
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$60
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Retail Sales
Quarterly, Inflation Adjusted
Sales/SF (ex nonstore sales) Sales/SF (including nonstore sales)
Recession
0
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100
150
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Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence
Consumer Sentiment
Recessions
February 2016
: 92.2
: 91.7
10. 10
U.S. Census Bureau, February 1, 2016
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING
The annualized rate for residential construction
spending in December was $429.6 billion, up
23.0% from a year ago and 36.0% lower than the
2006 peak.
The annualized rate for non-residential construc-
tion spending in December was $394.4 billion, up
11.0% from a year ago but 5.0% lower than the
2008 peak.
“U.S. construction spending barely rose in
December as spending on nonresidential
structures recorded its biggest drop since 2013,
suggesting a mild downward revision to the
advance fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast
construction spending rising 0.6 percent in
December after a previously reported 0.4 percent
drop in November. ”15
USDA, Ag Land Values and Cash Rents Annual Summary, January 2016
International Monetary Fund, Primary Commodity Price Index, January 2016
COMMODITY PRICES
The IMF Commodity Index is 58.0% below the July
2008 peak. For 2015 Q4, Crude Oil (-40.0%) and
Energy (-39.3%) declined from a year ago.13
Commodity prices fell 7.1 percent in December,
extending losses to seven months, led by a sharp
decline in oil prices. Non-fuel prices fell 0.2
percent, and in part reflect appreciation of the U.S.
dollar. During 2015 (Dec’14-Dec’15), commodity
prices fell 30.7 percent with energy dropping 39.3
percent and non fuel prices falling 19.1 percent.14
0
1
2
3
4
5
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US Farm Value and Commodity Prices
(Values Indexed, 1992=1)
Commodity Index (IMF)
Farm Value (Last Update August 2015)
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Billions
Private Construction Spending
Residential Non-Residential
Recession
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market Overview
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11. ORIGINATIONS BY PROPERTY TYPE
2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4
Office 9.4% 8.0% 7.9%
Industrial 4.6% 4.8% 9.4%
Apartment 42.8% 49.5% 48.9%
Retail 10.3% 10.0% 9.7%
Other* 32.9% 27.8% 24.2%
ORIGINATIONS BY INVESTOR CLASS
2013 2014 2015
Life Cos 23.0% 18.7% 18.7%
GSEs 16.0% 30.0% 25.7%
Comm Bank 32.6% 25.8% 33.6%
Conduits 28.4% 25.6% 22.0%
LIFE Cos ORIGINATIONS
(Billions)
2006 Q4 $7.1
2007 Q4 $6.0
2008 Q4 $1.6
2009 Q4 $3.4
2010 Q4 $9.2
2011 Q4 $8.0
2012 Q4 $9.4
2013 Q4 $13.2
2014 Q4 $14.2
2015 Q4 $16.9
0
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500
750
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Commercial Loan Originations
Life Insurance GSE's (Fannie/Freddie)
Commercial Banks CMBS/Conduits
Recession
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Billions
Life Company Loan Originations Life Insurance Company's
4Q Trailing
Recession
11
ORIGINATIONS
Mortgage Bankers Association Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multi-
family Mortgage Bankers Originations, 2015 Q4
Mortgage Bankers Association Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily
Mortgage Bankers Originations, 2015 Q4
“Fourth quarter 2015 commercial and multifamily
mortgage originations were 35 percent higher than in
the third quarter and 19 percent higher than fourth
quarter of 2014. The fourth quarter was the fourth
highest quarter for borrowing and lending on record.
Banks, life insurance companies, and Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac saw their highest originations volumes on
record. Of the major investor groups, only the CMBS
market didn’t break a record for originations. In terms
of overall borrowing and lending volumes, 2015 as a
whole was likely second only to 2007.”16
*Other includes hotel and health care
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market Overview
First Quarter 2016
Applied Research
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12. 12
EMPLOYMENT
The February unemployment rate was 4.9%, down
from 5.5% a year ago.
Significant payroll increases from a year ago include
construction (+3.8%), professional services (+3.1%),
and leisure and hospitality (+3.0%). Mining and
Logging is the only sector that decreased payroll
(-16.1%).
All sectors experienced payroll increases since the
2010 trough. The job sectors with the
highest increases include construction (+20.6%) and
administrative service (+21.0%). Total nonfarm
employment has increased 10.7% since 2010.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation, March 4, 2016
Employment figures reflect private and government non-farm jobs
REPEAT SALES INDICES
The Commercial Property Price Index reported by RCA is
up 13.0% in December from a year ago and up 17.0%
from the 2007 peak.
The U.S. Investment Grade segment increased 10.5%
over the past 12 months. The U.S. General Commercial
Index increased 9.1% in December from a year ago.17
“Improving CRE fundamentals, surging investor demand
and liquid capital markets propelled the CCRSI composite
indices upward in 2015. Demand for core property
assets was especially strong. The value-weighted U.S.
Composite Index rose 12.5% in 2015 to an all-time high
that is 19.1% above its prerecession peak.”17
“Among
key drivers of the price recovery were the increased
availability and decreased cost of debt and equity capi-
tal, capitalization rate compression, improving property
fundamentals and a declining share of distressed trans-
Real Capital Analytics/Moody’s Investor Service, January 2016
CoStar Commercial Repeat-Sale Indices, January 2016.
The difference between the RCA Index and the CoStar Indices is primarily the methodology weighting
repeat sales, not the data sources.
Commercial Property Price Index (Moody’s/RCA) - Index is based on property sales over $2.5 million.
U.S. Investment Grade (CoStar) - This Index includes Class A and B offices with 35,000 SF or more,
industrial properties with 80,000 SF or more, flex properties with 55,000 SF or more, retail properties
with 25,000 SF or more, multifamily properties with 90,000 SF or more, and hotels with 125,000 SF or
more.
U.S. General Commercial (CoStar) - Only includes properties not meeting the Investment Grade criteria.
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Price Based on Repeat Sales Indices
Commercial Property Price Index (RCA) U.S. Investment Grade (CoStar)
U.S. General Commercial (CoStar)
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market Overview
First Quarter 2016
Applied Research
www.aegonrealty.com We use our investment management expertise to help people achieve a lifetime of financial security
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-900
-600
-300
0
300
600
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
UnemploymentRate
PayrollEmploymentM/MChange
Employment Situation Payroll Change
Unemployment Rate
February 2016
: 242,000
: 4.9%
Recessions
Thousands