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Getting the Right Picture
1.
Aviation Forecasting GETTING THE RIGHT PICTURE
By: Mohammed Salem Awad Consultant
2.
Outline Airline Forecasting Model Evaluation
of Forecasting Model IATA Economic Analysis 2011 3 Years Data (Input) Head To Head Analysis Model Fairness Getting The Right Picture Contact 12/9/2011 2
3.
Airline Forecasting Model 12/9/2011
3
4.
Evaluation of Forecasting Model
(R2 and T. S.) Evaluation Forecasting 12/9/2011 4 R 2 = Coef. Of Determination T. S. = Tracking Signal
5.
IATA Economic Analysis 2011 12/9/2011
5
6.
IATA Economic Analysis 2011
( 3 years period ) 12/9/2011 6
7.
IATA Economic Analysis 2011
( 3 years period ) 3 Years Period 12/9/2011 7
8.
IATA Economic Analysis
Vs Model Forecast, Head to Head Analysis 12/9/2011 8
9.
Model Fairness
Since R2 > 80% AND -4 < T.S.< 4 12/9/2011 9
10.
Comparison GETTING THE RIGHT
PICTURE 12/9/2011 10
11.
Contact Mohammed Salem Awad Consultant Tel:
736255814 Email: smartdecision2002@yahoo.com 12/9/2011 11