EURUSD currency basis tightening to new lows

•Descargar como PPTX, PDF•

0 recomendaciones•315 vistas

Credit Crunch Hedge
EURUSD Currency Basis tightening to new lows on
Central Banks activism

1
Strictly Confidential | Not for Distribution

Más contenido relacionado

Más de Fasanara Capital ltd

1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets. 2. Four Key Conviction Ideas We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months: Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not. Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress. Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead. Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | May 3rd 2016

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | October 26th 2015

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | June 1st 2015

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara Capital Investment Outlook | February 1st 2015

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | December 1st 2014

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara Capital Investment Outlook | September 1st 2014

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara Capital I Investment Outlook I April 1st 2014

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | December 16th 2013

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | October 7th 2013

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | June 28th 2013

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | April 5th 2013

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara Capital | Appendix | Portfolio Buckets

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | March 1st 2013

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | January 11th 2013

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | January 7th 2012

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara Capital | Weekly Investment Outlook | December 17th 2011

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | November 16th 2012

Fasanara Capital ltd

Fasanara capital | Investment Outlook: October 26th 2012

Fasanara Capital ltd

Misery Index in Europe: Unemployment Rate plus Inflation Rate

Fasanara Capital ltd

Más de Fasanara Capital ltd (20)

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | May 3rd 2016

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | October 26th 2015

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | June 1st 2015

Fasanara Capital Investment Outlook | February 1st 2015

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | December 1st 2014

Fasanara Capital Investment Outlook | September 1st 2014

Fasanara Capital I Investment Outlook I April 1st 2014

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | December 16th 2013

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | October 7th 2013

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | June 28th 2013

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | April 5th 2013

Fasanara Capital | Appendix | Portfolio Buckets

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | March 1st 2013

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | January 11th 2013

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | January 7th 2012

Fasanara Capital | Weekly Investment Outlook | December 17th 2011

Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | November 16th 2012

Fasanara capital | Investment Outlook: October 26th 2012

Misery Index in Europe: Unemployment Rate plus Inflation Rate