Fic en it-chart book presentation_14-jan-13

Economic Trends and Evolution of Chinese
Financial Sector Reforms: Scenarios and
Opportunities for International Investors
BACKGROUND DATA
Prepared by
Franco Fornasari
f.fornasari@Valuetreepartners.com
Bethesda, 14-Jan-2013

FONTI – DATA SOURCES
A-CAPITAL, Andre Loesekrug-Pietri, The Dragon Index, November 2012;
ADBI, Asian Development Bank Institute, Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Working Paper
366, 2012;
Bloomberg News, China Picks Wenzhou for Small-Business Funding Experiment, March 28th, 2012;
Caixin Media, Zhou, Xiaochuan, “Special Interview—everything about the renminbi”, Century Weekly, January 2, 2012;
CIC, China Investment Corporation, Annual Report 2011;
CICC, China International Capital Corporation Ltd., “China Economy Research”, November 6, 2012;
CSEC (China Securities Regulatory Commission), Annual Report 2011;
Euromoney – Bank of China, “The 2012 Euromoney Guide to China Cash Management”, June 2012;
Euromeney – RBS, Renminbi convergence, is it inevitable and what are the risks? May 2012;
Financial Times, Kathrin Hille and Rahul Jacob, “Beyond the conveyor belt”, October 15, 2012;
Financial Times, Neil Buckley, “Beijing Targets European Shift”, November 9, 2012;
Financial Times, China Special Report, December 12, 2012;
FSB, Financial Stability Board: Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report, 2012;
Global Finance, Laurence Neville, China in Europe, May 2012;
Goldman Sachs, Economics Research, Asia Economics Flash, “China: Cooling off: The drivers and implications of CNY
hot money outflows”; October 8, 2012;
Goldman Sachs, Economics Research, Asia Economic Analyst, “China shifting to a lower gear”, N.12/16, September 20,
2012;
Garcia-Herrero Alicia, D.Santabarbara, “Is China’s Banking Sector Promoting its Economic Development: An
Assessment of an Unorthodox Banking Reform”, Paper presented at the Workshop on China Financial Market and
Internationalization of the RMB, Helsinki, September 17-18, 2012;
HKIMR (HONG KONG INSTITUTE FOR MONETARY RESEARCH), Dong He, Renminbi Internationalization: A Primer;
July, 31st, 2012;
ICBC, Urban Finance Research Center, Fan Zhigang, Conference Presentation, Rome, November 20th, 2012;
IMF, Country Report No. 12/ 195 – People Republic of China – 2012 Article IV Consultation, July 2012;
IMF - World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment Report, 2011;
IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, October 2012;
IMF- G20, People’s Republic of China, Sustainability Report 2011;

IMF, Ashvin Auhia , Mahlar Nabar, “Investment-led Growth in China: Glogbal Spillovers”, IMF WP 12/267, September
2012
IMF, Asfid Ahuja et Al., “An End to China Imbalances?”, Working Paper 12/100, April 2012;
IMF, Shamar Maziad, J. Shik Kang, “The RMB Internationalization, Onshore / Offshore Linkages”, WP 12/133, May
2012;
IMF, Shaun K.Roche, “China’s Impact on World Commodities Markets”, IMF Wp 12/115; March 2012;
Institutional Investor, Neil Sen,”China Spreads its Wings”, September 2012;
JPMorgan-Chase, Bert Gochet, Conference Presentation, Rome, November 20, 2012;
Oliver Wyman, “The Growth-Profitability Conundrum in Chinese Wholesale Banking”, Marsh-McLennan Co.,
London, 2012;
Oksanen, H. (2012), “Re-pegging the renminbi to a basket: issues and implications”, Asian-Pacific Economic
Literature, 26: 18–33. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8411.2012.01332.x
UNIDO, Breaking In and Moving Up: New Industrial Challenges for the Bottom Billion and the Middle-Income
Countries, Industrial Development Report 2009;
Wall Street Journal, Lingling Wei, “China cracks the whip over informal lending”, October 17, 2011;
Wall Street Journal, Dinny McMahon, “China Private Funds Bolster Local Government Projects, Raise Risks”,
November 10-11, 2012;
Wall Street Journal, Lingling Wei, “Lanscape Shifts for China Banks”, November 12, 2012;
Wall Street Journal, Tom Orlik, Bob Davis, “Xi Inherits an Economy that needs Work, November 13, 2012;
Wall Street Journal, Currency Trading, “China Finds a Friend Outside”, November 30, 2012;
Wall Street Journal, China's Investments Prompt Call for New Rules, January 7th 2013
Wall Street Journal, “China:Hidder Risks of Shadow Finance”, November 27, 2012
Wall Street Journal, China's Investments Prompt Call for New Rules, Jan 7th 2013
World Bank – DRC of the State Council, People’s Republic of China, “China 2030”, Washington,2011;
World Bank, Global Financial Development Report 2013, Rethinking the Role of State in Finance, Washington,
2012;
Yi Gang, Renminbi Exchange Rates and relevant Institutional Factors, Cato Journal, Vol. 28, No. 2, Spring-Summer
2008;
Zhihong Yu , Markus Eberhardt, Christian Helmers, Is the dragon learning to fly? An analysis of the Chinese patent
explosion, 27 September 2011

4
Chart 1: Crescita Reale del PIL e Inflazione nel Lungo Termine
Long-Term GDP Growth and Inflation
JPMorgan
Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation

5
Chart 2: Tassi di Crescita del PIL; Graduatoria del PIL ($ Tril); PIL Pro-capite
GDP Growth; Global GDP Rankings ($ Trillion); Per-capita GDP
Fonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base

6
Chart 3-A: Contributi delle Componenti del PIL alla Crescita
Contributions of GDP Components to Growth

7
Chart 3-B: Dinamica di Esportazioni e Investimenti Immobiliari
Dynamics of Export and Real Estate Investment

8
Chart 3-C: Saldo di Conto Corrente - Bilancia dei Pagamenti: Proiezioni IMF –
Art. IV Consultations 2012 / BOP-Current Account Balance: IMF Projections

9
Chart 4: Esportazioni Totali e per Mercati di Destinazione 2011-12
Export Volumes and By Market of Destination 2011-12

10
Chart 5: Crescita degli Investimenti Fissi Privati Industriali e Fatturato
Private Fixed Asset Investment and Sales
Fonte / Source:Ashvin Auhia , Mahlar Nabar, Investment-led Growth in China: Global Spillovers, IMF WP 12/267

11
Chart 6: Composizione degli Investimenti Fissi Totali e Industriali
Fixed Assets Investment by Sector and % of Manufacturing

12
Chart 6 - Bis: Capacita’ Produttiva manifatturiera - Veicoli Leggeri
Production Capacity Build Up in Manufacturing - Light Vehicles
Fonte / Source: Financial Times, 1st January 2013
Car production in China in 2013 is likely to be 10 times higher than in 2000 – when its share of
global auto manufacturing was just 3.5 per cent as opposed to a likely 23.8 per cent in 2013.
Scott Corwin, an automotive expert at the Booz & Co consultancy, said that even with relatively
strong growth projected in vehicle output and demand in both the US and China, “these markets
alone won’t do much to pull the whole world forward”
.

13
Chart 7: Composizione delle Importazioni per Prodotto
Import Composition by Product

14
Chart 8: Economie più Intergrate Commercialmente con l’Industria Cinese
Economies with Highest Trade Integration with China

15
Chart 9: Capacità Utilizzata Media dell’Economia Cinese - Stime IMF
Chinese Economy Average Capacity Utilization – IMF Estim.

16
Chart 10: Popolazione Attiva per Età - Rapporto Capitale Prodotto
Active Population by Age Groups – Incremental Capital-Output Ratio

17
Chart 11: Crescita Salariale, CLUPI e Margini nel Manifatturiero
Wage Growth, Unit Labor Cost and Industrial Profit Margins

18
Chart 12: Occupazione per Settore e Urbanizzazione
Employment by Sector and Urbanization Rate

19
Chart 13: Stima del “Punto di Svolta di Lewis”
– i.e., Azzeramento dell’Attuale Eccesso di Offerta sul Mercato del Lavoro
Estimated “Lewis Turning Point”
– i.e., Elimination of the Current Surplus in the Labor Market

20
Chart 14: Divari nei Salari Reali in Alcune Provincie Cinesi
Real Wage Dispersion Across Provinces

21
Chart 15: Risparmio per Settore, Reddito Disponibile e Investimenti
Saving by Sector, Disposable Income, Investment
Fonte / Source: G20 - PRC Sustainability Report 2011

22
Chart 16: Reddito Disponibile e Consumi delle Famiglie, Investimenti
Household Disposable Income & Consumption, Investment

23
Chart 17: Spesa Sociale per Istruzione, Tasso Reale sui Depositi
Public Spending on Education, Real Interest Rate on Deposits

24
Chart 18: Dinamica dei Depositi Presso il Sistema Bancario
Dynamics of Bank Deposits
Fonte / Source: IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011

25
Chart 19:Peso delle Importazioni Cinesi di Commodities sul Commercio
Mondiale; Consumi Pro-capite di Energia e Metalli;
China’s Share of Global Commodity Trade; Per-capita Consumption of
Energy and Metals
Fonte / Source: Shaun K.Roche, China’s Impact on World Commodities; IMF WP 12/115, March 2012

26
Chart 20: Le Ragioni di Scambio della Cina e Confronti Internazionali
China Terms of Trade and International Comparisons
Fonte / Source: Shaun K.Roche, China’s Impact on World Commodities; IMF WP 12/115, March 2012
Fonte / Source: Asfid Ahuja et Al., An End to China Imbalances?, IMF WP 12/100, April 2012;
IMF, People Republic of China, 2012 Article IV Consultation, Co. Report No. 12/195–July 2012

27
Chart 21:Confronti Internazionali dei Prezzi di Carburanti e Acqua
Water and Gas Prices – International Comparisons
Fonte / Source: Asfid Ahuja et Al., An End to China Imbalances?, IMF WP 12/100, April 2012;
IMF, People Republic of China, 2012 Article IV Consultation, Co. Report No. 12/195–July 2012

28
Chart 22-A: Motori della Crescita Cinese / Engines of Chinese Growth
Fonte / Source: Fan Zhigang, ICBC, Urban Finance Research Center, 2012

29
Chart 22-B: Confronti Internazionali di Sentieri di Crescita “Trappola del Reddito
Medio”/ Comparative Growth Paths & “Middle Income Trap”

30
A
B
C
D
E
Chart 22-C: Ipotesi Neo-Strutturalista sulla Crescita/
The “Neo Structuralist” Hypothesis on Growth
What a country manufactures matters for its growth. Both diversity and sophistication in industry
are drivers of faster growth. Each group of countries follows a “transition path”
A: Slow-growing low-and-middle-income countries:
Production intensities narrowed towards the low to mid-range of
product sophistication, as they exited sectors of high
sophistication.
B: Fast-growing low-income countries diversified their
manufacturing base and raised their level of product
sophistication, increasing production intensity in both low- and
high-sophistication products.
C: Slow-growing middle income countries lagged behind
their more successful middle-income rivals in such sectors as
machinery and electrical machinery.
D: Fast growing middle income countries shifted strongly in
the direction of more sophisticated products and reduced their
production intensity of lower-sophistication products to about
the world average. At the same time, they increased the
intensity of production of highly sophisticated goods to
about 60 per cent of the global average, driven by a
substantial increase in the intensity of machinery
production. They also maintained a strong orientation towards
production of electrical machinery.
Fonte / Source: UNIDO - Industrial Development Report 2009, Breaking In and Moving Up: New
Industrial Challenges for the Bottom Billion and the Middle-Income Countries

31
A
B
C
D
Chart 22-D: Le Imprese Cinesi piu’ vicine alla Frontiera dell’Innovazione
Chinese Companies are Approaching the Innovation Frontier
The number of domestic patent filings in China increased at an annual rate of 35% from 1999 to
2006. A new dataset of 20,000 Chinese manufacturing firms shows that the explosion has been
ignited by the ICT equipment sector. Thus,there is no evidence of a wider technological take-off
among Chinese companies, which is confined to a limited range of industries and even within these
industries is undertaken by very few, albeit highly active, firms.
The analysis of the patenting decision and the patent
productivity of Chinese firms reveals that
firms patenting both in China and the US, which account
for the overwhelming share of both SIPO and USPTO
filings by companies registered in China;
Firms are very large, relatively young, more R&D-intensive
than their peers, and strongly (but not exclusively) export-
oriented – in short, true global players.
A substantial share of patents covers product innovation
albeit of relatively low-tech character. Process innovations
and combinations of product and process innovation
covered by patents held by these companies appear to be
technologically more innovative and potentially valuable.
Hence, these few, patent-active companies are (at least to
some extent) innovative companies highly integrated into
the global economy.
Fonte / Source: Zhihong Yu , Markus Eberhardt, Christian Helmers, Is the dragon learning to fly? An analysis of the
Chinese patent explosion, 27 September 2011 http://www.voxeu.org/article/china-imitator-innovator

32
Chart 23: Architettura del Sistema Finanziario / Financial System Archtecture
Fonte:/ Source: IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011

33
Chart 24: Riforme del Sistema Finanziario al 2010 / Financial Reform up to 2010
Fonte:/ Source: IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011

34
Chart 25: Tassi di Interesse Bancari e Inflazione (2005-2012)
Bank Interest Rates and Inflation (2005-2012)
Fonte / Source: Bert Gochet, JPMorgan-Chase

35
Chart 26: Margini di Profitto Minimi e Distribuzione dei Tassi sui Prestiti
Bank Interest Margin and Distribution of Effective Lending Rates
Fonte / Source: A.Garcia-Herrero, D.Santabarbara, Is China’s Banking Sector Promoting its Economic
Development: An Assessment of an Unorthodox Banking Reform, Paper presented at the Workshop on China
Financial Market & RMB Internationalization, Helsinki, 17-18 Sept. 2012

36
Chart 27: Struttura Attività Finanziarie Totali – Confronti Internazionali
Total Financial Assets Composition – International Comparisons
Fonte / Source: IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011; Maziad, J. Shik Kang, The RMB
Internationalization, Onshore / Offshore Linkages,IMF WP 12/133, May 2012

37
Chart 28: Flussi di Credito all’Economia - 2005-2012
Credit Flows to the Economy – 2005-2012
A.Garcia-Herrero, D.Santabarbara, Is China’s Banking Sector Promoting its Economic Development: An Assessment of
an Unorthodox Banking Reform, Paper presented at the Workshop on China Financial Market & RMB Internationalization,
Helsinki, 17-18 Sept. 2012
Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, ART.IV Consultations, July 2012;

38
Chart 29: Tassi di Riferimento e Tassi Medi sui Prestiti Bancari
Benchmark and Average Bank Lending Rates

39
Box 1: La Riforma 2012 dei Tassi di Interesse / 2012 Interest Rate Reform

40
Chart 30-A: Il Mercato Wholesale Banking / The Wholesale Banking Market
Fonte / Source: Oliver Wyman, The Growth-Profitability Conundrum in Chinese Wholesale Banking, Marsh-McLennan Co.,
2012

41
Chart 30-B: Il Mercato Wholesale Banking / The Wholesale Banking Market
Fonte / Source: Oliver Wyman, The Growth-Profitability Conundrum in Chinese Wholesale Banking, Marsh-McLennan Co., 2012

42
Chart 31: Gli Investimenti Esteri nel Sistema Finanziario Cinese
Foreign Direct Investment into the Chinese Financial Sector
Fonte / Source: A.Garcia-Herrero, D.Santabarbara, Is China’s Banking Sector Promoting its Economic Development: An
Assessment of an Unorthodox Banking Reform, Paper presented at the Workshop on China Financial Market & RMB
Internationalization, Helsinki, 17-18 Sept. 2012

43
Chart 31 – Bis : Le Banche Estere sono il 2% degli Assets del Settore
Foreign Banks are 2% of the Banking Sector Assets
Foreign banks have long targeted China as a key market for future growth, but they
are still niche players, accounting for less than 2% of the banking sector's total
assets, according to a KPMG Report
Fonte / Source: The Wall Street Journal, 26-Sep-12

44
Chart 32:Indicatori Finanziari del Sistema Banca / Selected Banking Indicators
Fonte / Source:: IMF, People’s Republic of China, ART.IV Consultations, July 2012;
IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011

45
Chart 32 Bis: Attività Estere del Sistema Bancario Cinese
Foreign Assets of Chinese Banks
The Value of Overseas Assets and Pretax Profits show that the “Big
Four banks” remain firmly dependent on their home operations.
Fonte / Source: The Wall Street Journal / China Scope Financial , 27-Nov.12
Note: At the Exchange rate of 6.13 RMB per US$, 1 Trillion of RMB Assets = 163 Million US$

46
Chart 33:Emissione di Obbligazioni Imprese Non-Finanziarie e Crescita Credito
all’Economia / Issuance of Non-Financial Corporate Debt and Growth of Total
Credit Components
Fonte / Source: IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, October 2012

47
Chart 34:Finanziamenti del Sistema Bancario Ombra e Trusts Cinesi
Shadow Banking Finance: Trust Loans, Bonds, and AUM
Fonte / Source: The Wall Street Journal, November 10-11, 2012 China Private Funds Bolster Local
Government Projects, Raise Risks; and November 27, 2012, “China: Hidden Risks of Shadow Finance;

48
Chart 35-A:Il Sistema Bancario Ombra – Confronti Internazionali
The Shadow Banking System – International Comparisons
Fonte / Source: FSB, Financial Stability Board: Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report, 2012

49
Chart 35-B:Il Sistema Bancario Ombra: Crescita di Altri Intermediari
The Shadow Banking System: Growth of Other Fin. Intermediaries
Fonte / Source: FSB, Financial Stability Board: Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report, 2012

50
Chart 36:Funzioni di una Moneta di Riserva
Dimensions of an International Currency
Fonte/ Source: Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Asian Development Bank Institute,
Working Paper 366, 2012

51
Chart 37:Transazioni di Conto Corrente Regolate in RMB
Cross-Border Trade Settled in RMB
Fonte/ Source: Shamar Maziad, J. Shik Kang, The RMB Internationalization, Onshore Offshore Linkages, WP 12/133, May 2012 ;
Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Asian Development Bank Institute, Working Paper 366, 2012

52
Chart 37-Bis: Linee di Credito in RMB (CNY) fra Banche Centrali e la PBOC fino
al 1 Trim 2012/ Swop Lines in RMB (CNY) between the Peoples Bank of China
and Other Central Banks up to the 1st Quarter 2012
Fonte/ Source: Euromeoney, Renminbi-convergence-Is-it-inevitable-and-what-are-the-risks? May 2012;

53
Chart 38:Regolazione di Pagamenti di Importazioni Cinesi via Hong Kong
RMB Settlement of Import of Goods from China via Hong Kong
Fonte/ Source:Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Asian Development Bank Institute, Working Paper 366, 2012

54
Chart 39:Tasso RMB/US$ Onshore (CNY), Offshore (CNH)
RMB-US$ Exchange Rates Onshore (CNY) and Offshore (CNH)
Fonte/ Source:Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Asian Development Bank Institute, Working Paper 366, 2012

55
Chart 40: Rivalutazione del RMB Implicita sul Mercato Onshore e Offshore (Non-
Deliverable Forward – NDF) / Implied 1-Year Appreciation of the RMB on
Onshore and Offshore Markets (NDF)
Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, Art..IV Consultation, July 2012

56
Chart 41:Dim Bond - Emissioni di Titoli in RMB (CNH) e Curva dei Rendimenti dei
Titoli del Debito Cinese Onshore (CNY) e Offshore (CNH) / Dim Bond Issuance of
RMB Bonds, Government Bond Yield Onshore (CNY) & Offshore (CNH)
Fonte / Source: Shamar Maziad, J. Shik Kang, The RMB Internationalization, Onshore Offshore Linkages, WP 12/133, May 2012

57
Chart 41-Bis: Mercato Offshore Hong Kong in RMB (CNH) /
Hong Kong Offshore Market in RMB (CNH)
Fonte/ Source: Euromeoney, Renminbi-convergence-Is-it-inevitable-and-what-are-the-risks? May 2012;

58
Chart 42:“Banda di Fluttuazione” allargata, Parità Centrale e Tassi di Cambio
RMB/US$ - Aprile-Giugno 2012 / Widened “Fluctuation Band”,
Central Parity and Closing Exchange Rate RMB-US$
Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, Art.IV Consultation, July 2012

59
Chart 43:Cambio RMB/US$ e Tasso Nominale Effettivo del RMB verso le altre
valute (NEER) / Bilateral RMB/US$ Rate and Nominal Effective Exchange Rate of
RMB (NEER)
Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, Art.IV Consultation, July 2012

60
Chart 44 :Tassi di Cambio RMB rispetto alle principali valute 1994-2012 /
Bilateral Exchange rate of RMB vis-a-vis the Main Currencies 1994-2012
Legenda: Indice espresso in unità di RMB per valuta indicata, quindi l’abbassamento
(aumento) della linea denota deprezzamento (apprezzamento) della valuta indicate rispetto
al RMB
Fonte / Source: Oksanen, H. (2012), Re-pegging the Renminbi to a basket: issues and implications. Asian-Pacific
Economic Literature, 26: 18–33. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8411.2012.01332.x

61
Chart 45: Movimenti di Capitali a Breve e Differenziale Tassi di Interesse /
Hot Money Capital Flows and Interest Rate Differentials
Fonte / Source : Goldman Sachs, Economics Research, Asia Economics Flash, China, “Cooling off:
The drivers and implications of CNY hot money outflows”, October 8, 2012

62
Chart 46: Variazione Fondi in Valuta nel Bilancio della Banca Centrale e delle
Banche ( i.e., Interventi sul Mercato dei Cambi) / Variations in FX Funds Held by
the Central Bank and Commercial Banks (i.e., Interventions in the FX Market)
Fonte / Source: China International Capital Corporation Ltd. (CICC), China Economy Research, November
6th, 2012

63
Chart 47:Cambio RMB-US$ nel 2012 / Exchange Rate RMB-US$ in 2012
Fonte / Source: China International Capital Corporation Ltd. (CICC), China Economy Research,
November 6th, 2012
Legenda: Indice espresso in US$ per unità di RMB,
quindi l’abbassamento (aumento) della linea denota
deprezzamento (apprezzamento) del RMB rispetto al US$

64
Chart 48: Misure di Apertura del Conto Capitale e “Triangolo Impossibile”
/ Measures to Open the capital Account; the “Impossible Trinity”
Fonte / Source: ICBC, Urban Finance Research Center,
Fan Zhigang, Conference Presentation, Rome,
November 20th, 2012;
Fonte / Source: JPMorgan-Chase, Bert
Gochet, Conference Presentation, Rome,
November 20th, 2012

65
Chart 49:Portafoglio di China Investment Corporation 2011 /
Investment Portfolio of CIC 2011
Fonte / Source: China Investment Corporation, Annual Report 2011

66
Chart 49–Bis: Investmenti Cinesi di SOEs e Privati in USA /
Investment Flows of Chinese SOEs and Private Investors into the USA
Fonte / Source: The Wall Street Journal, China's Investments Prompt Call for New Rules, Jan 7th 2013

67
Chart 50: Indice degli Investimenti Cinesi Verso l’Estero (ODI)
Index of Chinese Direct Investment Abroad (ODI)
Fonte / Source: A CAPITAL, Andre Loesekrug-Pietri,The Dragon Index, November 2012;

68
Tav. 50-Bis: Tuttavia, I dati mostrano una riduzione di ODI Cinese
nell’Area Euro / However Chinese FDI outflows to the Euro Area show a
decline in 2012
Fonte / Source: Mark Thompson fDiMagazine, December 14, 2012
According to greenfield investment monitor fDi Markets, there have been 244 Chinese FDI
projects recorded between January and October 2012, a significant decline from the same
period in 2011, when there were 349 projects.
This means that, unless there is a substantial uptick in outward investment in the final two
months of the year, 2012 will be China's worst year for outbound FDI since 2008, when 282
projects were recorded.
One possible reason for the decline is the crisis in Europe. Historically, Germany has been the
main destination for Chinese FDI, accounting for 12% of all outgoing projects between January
2003 and October 2012. In 2011, there were 80 Chinese investments in Germany, while in 2012
so far there has been just 11 such investments.
Investment in Hong Kong has increased in 2012, however, with twice the number of Chinese FDI
projects recorded in the city-state compared to 2011.
Chinese FDI into the UK and the US has remained relatively stable compared to the previous
year.

69
Chart 51: Composizione Investimenti Cinesi verso l’Estero - 2012
Composition of Chinese Outward Direct Investment (ODI)- 2012
Fonte / Source: A CAPITAL, Andre Loesekrug-Pietri,The Dragon Index, November 2012;

70
Chart 52: Opportunità di Investimento in RMB per Non-Residenti /
Investment Opportunities in RMB for Foreign Corporates & Investors
Fonte / Source: JPMorgan-Chase, Bert Gochet, Conference Presentation, Rome, November 20th, 2012

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