Current ride sharing services are not financially sustainable. Although they provide more convenience than do taxi services, they are experiencing massive losses because they have the same cost structure as do taxis and thus must compete through subsidies and lower wages. After all, they use the same vehicles, roads, and drivers, and only GPS algorithms and phones are new.
They also increase congestion. Just as more private vehicles or taxis on the road will increase congestion, more ride sharing vehicles also increase congestion.
These slides describe new ways to use the technologies of ride sharing to reduce congestion along with costs while at the same time keeping travel time low. This can be done through changing public transportation systems or allowing private companies to offer competing services. For instance, current bus services, whether they are private or public, need to use the algorithms, GPS, phones and other technologies of ride sharing to revise routes, schedules and the premises that currently underpin public transportation. There is no reason a bus should be certain size, stop every 200 meters, or follow the same route all day. Algorithms and phones enable new types of routes in which designers simultaneously minimize time travel and maximize number of passengers transported per vehicle.hour.
3. Why Are Tech Companies Changing
Ride-sharing services like Uber and Lyft making
car congestion worse ..
Services like UberPool are making traffic worse,
study says
They add 2.6 to 2.8 new vehicle miles for each mile of
personal driving they eliminate
Studies are increasingly clear: Uber and Lyft
congest cities
Other Recent
Newspaper
Article
Titles
4.
5.
6.
7. Schaller found that while options such as UberX add 2.8
new vehicle miles for each mile of personal driving they
eliminate, the inclusion of options such as UberPool and
Lyft Line adds to traffic at only a marginally lower rate:
2.6 new miles for every mile of personal driving reduced.
8. Your next Uber could be a BIKE as ride-
sharing company moves away from
cars
Coming soon to the Uber app: bikes,
rental cars, and public transportation
Ride-hailing companies are diversifying
away from their core business, but
right into more direct competition
Recent
Newspaper
Article
Titles
9.
10.
11. Why Does Ride Sharing Worsen Congestion?
Some users moving from public transport
Public transport requires less land per rider than do cars
Even users moving from private cars require more land per
rider
Ride sharing vehicles don’t have passengers all the time
Time to find new passengers, drivers need breaks
Result is that ride sharing vehicles require more land per rider
Driverless Vehicles will make problem worse for near future
Removing driver will reduce costs, but increase congestion
Eliminating private cars will help, but people won’t sell until new
services succeed
12. What About Uber Pool?
Not enough users for algorithm to generate efficient
routes
Result is that vehicles
must drive additional miles for each rider
In addition to miles finding new passengers
2.6 new miles for every mile of personal driving reduced
(vs. 2.8 for regular Uber Service)
More users might lead to better routes but this will
take a long time
13. We Need Better Fixed Route Services
Consider NUS (National University of Singapore) night classes
500 to 1000 students attend classes on weeknights (6-9PM) in
Faculty of Engineering
Probably similar numbers in other faculties and universities
Some students
coming from same place about 6PM
going to same place at about 9PM
Can we offer cars, vans or mini-buses for them? Thus reducing
use of single passenger private vehicles
travel time for students who typically use public transportation
14. Many other Examples in Singapore and
Other Places
Any location with many low- and mid-income people is one
end point
Low price retail outlets
Popular shopping malls
Popular weekend destinations: beaches, parks, theme parks
Schools, universities, and government offices
Fixed route services can connect these end points with
residential locations that are close and are densely populated
Learn from results, expanding successful routes and reducing
unsuccessful routes
15. Another Look at Opportunities: Singapore’s Taxis are Concentrated
in a Few Places (bright red) Throughout a Typical Day (this data is
for Sunday)
Midnight
3AM 6AM
9AM
Noon 3PM
6PM
9PM
16. How Much Space Does Bright Red Occupy? 1% of Space? Two
Major Areas/Routes for Most of the Day (Green Boxes)
Midnight 3AM 6AM 9AM
Noon 3PM 6PM 9PM
17. What Prevents Better Fixed-Route Services?
Governments
Don’t want to cannibalize public transport services
So they oppose fixed route services
Even as ride sharing services are stealing users
away from public transport services
Answers:
Allow more competition from private companies
Remake public transportation services
18. Information Technology Helps Us
GPS and fast computers enable vehicles to have complex routes
Buses don’t have to run same route all day long, stopping every one
minute
Can change routes according to time of day, stopping infrequently
Smaller vehicles can be used for some routes
Big data helps us plan better
Find best routes and vehicles for best times
Governments can use employment, residential, and other data to
plan, or can open it up to private companies
Smart phones enable interactions between riders and services
Users can find schedules on phones, without looking at bus stop
information boards
19. So Much Data, Hidden Away in
Computers and Filing Cabinets
Taxi companies have data on pick-up and drop-off points
Train and bus companies have data on boarding and alighting
points but,
Employers and governments have data for specific people on
residential
employment locations
Shopping and entertainment businesses also have data on
users
20. What will Cities Do?
Many early adopters of ride sharing will restrict
ride sharing services, but make few changes to
public transportation
Non-adopters of ride sharing will be convinced
they were correct to not have allowed ride
sharing
A few will change their public transport services
A few will also allow more private services, and
will likely be the most successful
What will your city do?
21.
22. City Percentage Devoted to
Streets
Street Area (square feet) Per
Capita
New York 30% 345
Newark 16% 257
San Francisco 26% 441
Chicago 24% 424
Philadelphia 19% 365
St. Louis 25% 609
Pittsburgh 18% 455
Cleveland 17% 416
Miami 24% 778
Milwaukee 20% 724
Cincinnati 13% 573
Los Angeles 14% 741
Atlanta 15% 1,120
Houston 13% 1.585
Dallas 13% 1,575
Portion of Land Devoted to Streets
Source: John R. Meyer and Jose A. Gomez-Ibanez, Autos, Transit, and Cities, Twentieth Century Fund
Report (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1981).
23. Rank City Parking Area* Divided by Land Area
1 Los Angeles 81%
2 Melbourne 76%
3 Adelaide 73%
4 Houston 57%
5 Detroit 56%
6 Washington, D.C. 54%
7 Brisbane 52%
8 Calgary 47%
9 Portland 46%
10 Brussels 45%
Land for Parking in Urban Areas
Source: Michael Manville and Donald Shoup, “People, Parking, and Cities,” Journal of Urban Planning and Development, Vol.
131, No. 4, December 2005, pp. 233-245
* Includes all levels of all parking garages
24. This is the Reality of Many Cities
Cars, cars, and more cars
Private cars are primary mode of
transportation in most developed countries
Particularly in U.S.
But also in Japan and Europe
They are parked 95% of the time
When they are driven, they usually have a
single driver and are stuck in traffic
Waste of time!
And also energy
Isn’t there a better way?
25. Examples for Singapore
Residential Retail Total
Densities Employment Employment
http://simulacra.blogs.casa.ucl.ac.uk/2011/04/running-spatial-interaction-models-in-java/
Employment, residential,
and shopping densities
are known in many cities
Can this data can be
used to build a rough
map of high density
routes and times?
Many trips are between:
Employment centers
Retail centers
Residential centers
Entertainment centers
26. Can Employers Help?
For example, should employers provide anonymous
data on home addresses to help design transport
services for them?
Well designed services could
dramatically cut travel times for users
increase employee satisfaction
reduce traffic on trains during peak demand
Should governments require employers to provide
data, in order to reduce peak demand traffic on
trains?
27. We Need Real Sharing: We Need Better
Fixed Route Services
It combines the best of
Short travel times (similar to private vehicles)
Low cost, fewer private cars less congestion (similar to public transport)
How can it do this?
Many people have same starting and ending points, and times
Entrepreneurs can offer services for high-density routes and times
Information Technology enables us to do this
Big data provides better data on common routes and times
Smart phones enable interactions between riders and services
GPS and fast computers enable vehicles to have very complex routes
28. Better Fixed Route Services are Needed
Private Cars
Advantage: Lots of freedom! Usually fast speeds and short travel
times
Disadvantages: cars are expensive, cities are filled with roads
and parking lots, much lost time in traffic during many parts of
day
Public transportation
Advantage: Inexpensive
Disadvantages:
travel times are usually much longer than for private cars or
taxis
almost double those of private cars and taxis in Singapore
29. Multiple Passenger
Ride Sharing can
Change Conventional
Wisdom about
Energy Usage: High
urban densities
(and centralized
cities)
are needed for low
energy consumption
in transport
Newman P, Kenworthy J 1989. Cities and
automobile dependence : a sourcebook.
Aldershot Hants England: Gower Technica
30. 0
20
40
60
80
100
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Asia
Canada
Australia
US
Public
Transport
(%)
Density
(per hectare)
Public Transport Usage (%) is Higher in Dense Cities
(Asia, Canada, Australia, US)
Newman P, Kenworthy J 1989. Cities and automobile dependence : a sourcebook. Aldershot Hants England: Gower Technica
31. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
A More Detailed Look at Canada, Australia, and US
New US Cities
Decentralized
Designed for Cars
Old US
Cities
Australia
Canada
Density
(per hectare)
Public
Transport
33. We Need Real Sharing: We Need Better
Fixed Route Services
It combines the best of
Short travel times (similar to private vehicles)
Low cost, fewer private cars less congestion (similar to public transport)
How can it do this?
Many people have same starting and ending points, and times
Entrepreneurs can offer services for high-density routes and times
Information Technology enables us to do this
Big data provides better data on common routes and times
Smart phones enable interactions between riders and services
GPS and fast computers enable vehicles to have very complex routes
34. Very Different from Uber Pool or
Crowdsourcing
Entrepreneurs must take the risks
They must guarantee short travel times and low prices
Uber Pool has twice the travel times as Uber’s single
passenger services
People want short travel times!
Demand won’t emerge in the short run for Uber Pool!
Entrepreneurs must offer services for specific times
and routes
Even if there is initially low demand
35. Advantages of Multiple Passenger Ride Sharing
Provides another choice for users
Depends more on entrepreneurs than on governments
If successful,
Reduces cost of transport, with only small increase in travel time
Increases income for drivers, good for them and economy
Reduces congestion and thus travel times for everyone
Reduces petroleum usage and air pollution, without expensive
subsidies for electric vehicles, solar cells, or wind turbines
Can reduce need for car ownership, which represent second
highest cost for most low and mid-income families after homes
Less car ownership means less need for parking lots and roads
36. Taxis are Operating on Same Routes at
the Same Time
These taxis can be shared with little increase in travel time
One main route along east coast
A second route from south central to central
Simple calculation for Singapore
28,000 taxis or 39 taxis per km2 (total area of 710 km2 )
If taxis are operating in 1% of area: 3,900 taxis per km2
So many chances for shared taxis
Singapore is not unique!
Similar situations probably exist in many cities
37. Travel Time
Price
Multiple Passenger Ride Sharing can Change the
Economics of Commuting
Private vehicle
or private taxi
Multiple
passenger
ride sharing
Public
TransportBEST: want
low price,
short time
38. Design Services that Better Match Real Demand
Use big data to understand
People’s actual starting and ending points by time of day
Provide direct services for high density routes and times
Fewer stops reduce travel times, thus increasing user value
Increase number of vehicles if demand emerges
Vehicles follow multiple routes during day, facilitated by GPS
Real densities and demand should determine fixed routes
Vans and cars follow demand as it changes from commuting to shopping
during middle of day and back to commuting in evening
During non-peak commuting times, vehicles can also be used for other
transport needs, such as deliveries (see below)
39. Such Private Bus/Car Mobile Apps are Emerging
Many transportation apps are emerging
Mostly private taxis
Uber, Didi Dache-Kuaidi Dache, Ola Cabs, Lyft, Grabtaxi
All are valued at >$1Billion, Uber >$50 Billion
Some transport multiple passengers in same vehicle
Uber Pool, LyftLine, Via (in NY) and Split
Driver receives requests via real-time routing algorithm, which maps pickups
and drop-offs into most efficient route
Problems is most services have long travel times, because there aren’t
enough people using the services
Most people want to plan their routes, not depend on dynamic algorithm
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/category/special-section/?_r=1
http://districtsource.com/2015/05/split-a-new-ridesharing-app-is-out-to-shake-up-d-c-s-on-demand-transportation-scene/
40. Fixed Route Services Can Have Bigger Effect
Fixed route services transfer risk from passenger to service
Services must provide short travel times (and low prices)
through small number of stops, perhaps one or two at each
end
Dynamic services will not provide short travel times until
the number of users is high
Fixed route services can provide shorter travel times
Initially number of passengers may be small and thus service
might lose money
Depends on choice of routes
Services must target routes with high densities of users
41. Fixed of Fixed Route Services are Emerging
Examples
San Francisco area: RidePal, Chariot, Split, Potrero, Richmond,
Loup, Sunset
Bridj in Boston and Washington
Services make multiple stops only at beginning and end of route
Since no need to access car from parking garage, travel times
almost as fast as private vehicles, but can be much cheaper
The challenge is to find starting and ending points with lots
of demand; Big Data analysis will help
Most current services based on crude observations, not real data
Better data on starting and ending points will lead to better
services http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/category/special-section/?_r=1; http://www.bridj.com/welcome/#how
http://www.theverge.com/2015/3/23/8279715/san-francisco-bus-leap-loup-chariot
42. RidePal
It offers a number of
fixed route services that
connect starting and
ending points with high
demand
Picture shows SF and
Sunnyvale
Also provides services
for specific companies
(they know addresses of
their employees)
https://www.ridepal.com/#/
43. Chariot
Runs 14 passenger vans across San Francisco on five set routes
during morning and afternoon rush
Rides cost between $3 and $5
Passengers book from smartphones and use mobile phone apps to
monitor van location
Free WiFi also available
Total of 5,000 rides provided each week
Introduced tool to determine new routes, “Roll your Route”
Users can submit their optimum bus route and commute times
Can then recruit friends and neighbors to vote for the route
If route meets certain threshold, the service starts within a week
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-22/silicon-valley-private-bus-service-chariot-gets-more-vc-funding
44. Examples of Possible Services in Singapore
Consider NUS (National University of Singapore) night classes
500 to 1000 students attend classes on weeknights (6-9PM) in
Faculty of Engineering
Probably similar numbers in other faculties and universities
Some of these students are
coming from the same place about 6PM
going to the same place at about 9PM
Can we offer cars, vans or mini-buses for them? Thus reducing
use of single passenger private vehicles
travel time for students who typically use public transportation
The more we know about starting and ending points by time of
day, better services can be offered
45. What About Other Transport Demands
Ride sharing vehicles/vans are wasted when they are parked
Are there transportation demands during non-peak hours,
such as 10AM to 4PM?
Can vehicles and vans be used for other types of transport
services?
Use them for deliveries and other applications?
Uber wants to do other applications, why can’t others?
Many store-owned vehicles sit 90% of the time
The following slide suggests there is large demand for
transport in non-peak hours
Understanding the demand through big data is essential
46. 0
50
100
150
200
250
0 5 10 15 20
Relative Traffic On All Roads, Great
Britain, by Time of Day
Ride sharing
cars can
also service
high off-peak
demand
May be lots of potential
during non-peak times
Ride sharing cars and vans
can be used
for other transport
applications during
middle of day,
when there is less
commuting
We need better info on
starting and ending points
during non-peak hours
Peak
Commuting
Times
47. Other Types of Data? (2)
Can this rough map be used to
devise a travel model for a city?
Can we assume travel times for work
and shopping activities?
Would time-of day road, train, bus,
and taxi usage data or retail data
provide a better model?
Can this model help us devise ride
sharing routes and schedules?
Can simulations help us identify the
best combinations of routes and best
schedules?
Where should vehicles stop and at
which times?
48. Conventional Wisdom About Lower Energy Usage
High urban densities are necessary for low energy usage
Shorter distances to travel
More walking and bicycling in dense than in less dense cities
Vehicle, bus, and train trips are shorter
More public transportation partly because better economics
of public transportation
Both lead to lower energy usage in transportation
Examples of extremes
Long car commutes in Los Angeles
Short bus or train commutes in Hong Kong
49. Why the Differences?
Public Transportation tends to be more economic when
Population is large, population density is high
Cities are designed around walking (and not cars)
Cities are centralized and commuting is one direction (e.g., Tokyo)
Public Transportation is often designed for centralized one
direction commuting during peak hours
Easy to design; just bring people downtown for
work and then back home
Train and bus routes are fixed, repeat same routes
Routes are repeated with only changes
in frequency of service by time of day
50. Some cities have multiple centers,
particularly in the U.S. where growth
has occurred in the South-West
(California, Texas, Arizona) and Florida
Multiple Centers
51. Multiple Passenger Ride Sharing Will Overturn
this Conventional Wisdom
Can increase the number of passengers per vehicle and thus
reduce energy usage
Even lightly congested cities can do multiple passenger ride
sharing
First find high density routes and times and offer services
Then work towards lower density routes and times and offer
services
The end result can be lower energy usage along with
Lower cost and time of transport
Less congestion and thus travel times for everyone
Lower car ownership, which represent second highest expenditure for
most low and mid-income families after homes
Less car ownership means less need for parking lots and roads
52. Conclusions
Multiple passenger ride sharing can change the economics of
transport
How can it do this?
Many people have same starting and ending points, and same times
We just need to identify those routes and times
Information Technology enables us to do this
Big data provides better data on common routes and times
Smart phones enable interactions between riders and services
GPS and fast computers enable vehicles to have very complex
routes
53. Conclusions (2)
Not just Singapore and other high density
populated cities!
Smaller and less dense cities can also do this
Cities should provide more data, to help
services identify common routes
Cities have data, so they can help
Much cheaper than building train lines and
buying buses
54. Conclusions (3)
Even Los Angeles can do this
Cars, mini-buses and vans are used for high demand routes
Big data can find these routes and times
This will cause users to depend more on ride sharing,
reducing private vehicle usage and ownership
Can we reduce number of vehicles on roads by more
than half during peak hours?
Can we reduce the number of cars per family from two to one?
Can Los Angeles have lower energy usage than Tokyo currently does?
Perhaps, because no empty trains and buses running in opposite directions
And fewer empty trains and buses during off-peak hours
Instead, many full ride sharing vans and mini-buses