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Monthly Commodity Themes




June 2012
Contents

        Product Offering……………………………………………………………………………………….....................

        The Macro Context…………………......………………………………………………............................................................

        Scenario Analysis: What performs when growth is falling?.……………………............................................................

        What’s driving the gold price and 2012/13 outlook..........................................................................................................

        Using a physical precious metals basket as a portfolio diversifier…………………..........................................................

        Platinum and Palladium: the industrial precious metals...................................................................................................

        Copper: Canary in the coalmine......................................................................................................................................

        Hedged Commodity ETPs – How do they work and how can they be used? ................................................................
        Performance Tables...………………….………………………………………………………………………...................….....
        Equities………………………………………………………………………………...................................…..............................................…..
    -          Commodities………………………………………………………...……………………...................................................................................
               FX……………………………………………………………………………………………….............................................................................
        Appendix
    -          (1) Scenario Analysis: What Performs When Growth is Rising?..................................…....................................................................…...



    •




Page 2        For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
Our product offerings

       Commodity ETCs                                        Currency ETCs                                        Equity ETFs

   Diversified Broad
   Agriculture                                         Long or Short                                     US Equities
   Industrial Metals                                   USD/EUR/GBP vs G10                                Commodities
   Energy                                              USD vs EMs (CNY & INR)                            European Equities
   Livestock                                                                                             Thematic Equities
   Precious Metals

  Long (1x)                                           Long (1x)                                         Long (1x)

  Short (-1x)                                         Short (-1x)                                       Double Short (-2x)

  Double Leveraged (2x)                               Triple Long (3x)                                  Double Leveraged (2x)

  Physical (1x)                                       Triple Short (-3x)

  Forward (1x)
These products are listed on one or more of the following exchanges: London, New York, Tokyo, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Paris, Sydney, Milan and Dublin


Page 3       For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
ETPs: a practical primer to product structure

                                                          Stock Exchange

                                                    Exchange Traded Product
                                                    • Intra day trading on exchange
                                                    • Open-ended security
                                                    • All asset classes
                                                    • Delta-one, short & leveraged




                       Physically Backed                        Collateralised
                      • Hold 100% of constituent
                                                            • Hold less than 100% of the           Uncollateralised
                                                            constituent assets                   • Unsecured risks to the issuer
                      assets                                • Use collateral to cover risks      or a bank balance sheet.
                      • No lending allowed                  arising from securities lending or
                                                            swap exposure



                        • ETFS Metal Securities
                        Limited                               • ETFS Commodities
                        • Gold Bullion Securities             Securities Limited                 • ETFS Oil Securities Limited
                        Limited                               • ETFS Foreign Exchange
                        • ETFS Industrial Metal               Limited
                        Securities Limited




Page 4   For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
ETCs
Instrument to facilitate investment in commodities


                                                     Increased demand for commodities exposure
     Investor Demand
                                                     Limited investment options to invest in commodities because
                                                     European Undertakings for Collective Investment in
         The Challenge
                                                     Transferable Securities funds (UCITS) are not allowed to invest
                                                     in physical commodities or derivatives directly and they need to
                                                     be diversified

                                                     There is a need for a new exchange traded instrument to
                                                     provide a simple access to commodities in a more flexible way
                                                     (single commodity) with close correlation to the underlying
                                                     Creation of ETCs to replicate the characteristics of an exchange
   Introduction of ETCs                              traded UCITS fund
                                                      □     Open ended, cost efficient, transparent and bankruptcy remote
                                                      □     Trustee structure and English-law security charges provide
                                                            significant protections against issuer and counterparty risk
                                                      □     ETCs are eligible for investment by UCITS funds as transferable
                                                            securities that do not embed a derivative




Page 5     For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
The Macro Context
Greek concerns spur flight to safety

            Even following Greece’s orderly debt restructuring earlier this year, its debt remains above 120% of GDP, a level
            considered unsustainable by most analysts. With pro-reform parties knocked out of power in Greece’s early
            May elections, there are growing concerns that Greece may opt for a disorderly default and leave the Euro.
            Fears of possible highly disruptive contagion are keeping investors on the sidelines.
            Spain and Italy – Spain in particular – have also been dragged back towards crisis, with government bond
            spreads widening sharply as fiscal and growth concerns have returned.
            Therefore, while the initial Greek debt restructuring and large liquidity interventions by the ECB staved off a
            broad European sovereign crisis earlier this year, the root structural problems are far from being resolved. This
            will likely keep markets on edge and keep central banks in easing mode for the foreseeable future.

                                            Investors Flee to Safety                                                                      Spanish and Italian Bond Spreads Surge
 %                                      (10-yr US Treasury and German Bund yields)
4.0
                                                                                                                10-yr spreads to German Bunds (Bps), From May 19, 2010 to May 18, 2012
                                                                                      600
                                                                                                                                                                     Spain                                                                        Italy
3.5
                                                                                      500
3.0

                                                                                      400
2.5


2.0                                                                                   300
              US
              Germany
1.5
                                                                                      200

1.0
                                                                                      100
0.5
        Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities                                                0
                                                                                             Apr-10




                                                                                                                                                                                       Feb-11


                                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Feb-12


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Apr-12
                                                                                                                                 Aug-10
                                                                                                                                          Sep-10
                                                                                                                                                   Oct-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                Mar-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Aug-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sep-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Oct-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Mar-12
                                                                                                      May-10




                                                                                                                                                                     Dec-10
                                                                                                                                                                              Jan-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                  May-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              May-12
                                                                                                               Jun-10
                                                                                                                        Jul-10




                                                                                                                                                            Nov-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jun-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Nov-11
0.0

                                                                                      Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities




      Page 7          For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
Mixed global growth prospects

  US jobs, housing and manufacturing data have been improving, supporting the household sector.
  Despite a weak payrolls report for May, over 2 million jobs have been added to US economy over
  the past 15 months. The manufacturing ISM has been on a rising trend since November 2011,
  helping drive a global industrial recovery.
  The Eurozone, however, has been showing distinct signs of economic weakness, with most
  countries in recession and only Germany currently managing to hold growth above zero.
  China’s economy has slowed, but with GDP growth of 8.1% in 1Q 2012, it is still strong. China’s
  authorities are now reacting strongly, cutting bank reserve requirements, easing credit controls and
  announcing new fiscal stimulus. While the growth moderation may continue in the near-term, the
  substantial fiscal and monetary resources available should help support continued healthy growth.
                            Manufacturing PMI: Europe, China and US
                      Index level, Monthly Data, From May 31, 2007 to May 31, 2012                                 %                      More Stimulus to Come   %
  65                                                                                                               25                                             10
                                                                                                                             China Reserve Ratio Requirement
  60
                                                                                                                   20        Chinese CPI                          7
  55

  50                                                                                                               15                                             4
  45
                                                                                                                   10                                             1
  40

  35                                                                                                                5                                             -2
  30                                                                                                                    Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
                  EU PMI               US PMI       China PMI
  25
                                                                                                                    0                                             -5
                   Nov 07




                                           Nov 08




                                                             Nov 09




                                                                               Nov 10




                                                                                                 Nov 11
         May 07




                              May 08




                                                    May 09




                                                                      May 10




                                                                                        May 11




                                                                                                          May 12




       Source: ETF Securities, Bloomberg


Page 8              For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
Accommodative monetary policy here to stay

              Low interest rates and more liquidity to offset fiscal retrenchment and support weak financial sectors
              are likely to remain key features of the global central bank policy in 2012.
                        The US Federal Reserve committed to loose monetary policy until late 2014. Potential for QE3.
                        Bank of England pumped another £50bn into the UK economy at the beginning of February, with the Bank of
                        Japan also adding ¥10tn (approx. US$125bn) to its asset purchase scheme during the same period.
                        The ECB balance sheet is expanding rapidly: the second round of Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) at
                        the end of February 2012 added €530bn to bank balance sheets after pumping in €489bn in December 2011.
                        Banks have the liquidity for 3 years.
                        China has reduced bank reserve requirements three times in past six months to support the real economy and
                        more recently has started to relax credit controls.
                                                                                                                                                     Gold price vs. US real interest rate
                                           US Base Money *                                                        % p.a.                                 Daily data, 03/23/1977 - 03/23/2012                            USD/oz
                          Monthly, in US$bn, April 30, 1960 - April 30, 2012                                      -10                                                                                                      2250
3,000                                                                                                                          Real interest rate (inverted)*
                                                                                                                               Gold spot price (RHS axis)
2,500                                                                                                              -6                                                                                                      1750


2,000
                                                                                                                   -2                                                                                                      1250

1,500
                                                                                                                   2                                                                                                       750
1,000

 500                                                                                                               6                                                                                                       250


    0
                                                                                                                  10                                                                                                       -250
        1960
        1962
        1964
        1966
        1968
        1970
        1972
        1974
        1976
        1978
        1980
        1982
        1984
        1986
        1988
        1990
        1992
        1994
        1996
        1998
        2000
        2002
        2004
        2006
        2008
        2010
        2012




                                                                                                                   Mar 77          Mar 82         Mar 87         Mar 92         Mar 97         Mar 02         Mar 07   Mar 12
Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities                                                                                  Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
* Currency in circulation and commercial banks reserves with the US Federal Reserve. From first available data.    * 2 year US governement bond rates ajusted for current month inflation rate (per annum).


   Page 9              For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
Long-term structural factors remain commodity supportive

                                              Despite near-term volatility, long-term structural factors remain supportive of commodity
                                              prices.
                                              The continued industrialisation and increasing incomes of large population developing
                                              economies such as China and India are supporting long-term commodity demand. Supply
                                              remains constrained and increasingly difficult to access, pushing commodity prices higher.
                                              More recently, high and rising developed economy debt levels and unprecedented
                                              monetary expansion have increased demand for “hard assets” as a hedge against inflation
                                              and potential currency debasement.
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Rising per Capita Incomes Drive Commodity Demand
                                                                                                                                                                                   9,000
                                     $US                      Asian Development Rates




                                                                                                                                    Energy Use (Kg of oil equivalent per capita)
                                     45,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               USA
                                                 Japan (t=0, 1962)
                                     40,000
Gross National Income (per capita)




                                                 Korea (t=0, 1974)                                                                                                                                                                                                          Australia
                                     35,000                                                                                                                                        6,000
                                                 China (t=0, 1995)
                                     30,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Russia
                                                 India (t=0, 2002)                                                                                                                                                                                                               Germany
                                     25,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                          France
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Japan
                                                 Malaysia (t=0, 1973)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               UK
                                     20,000                                                                                                                                        3,000                                                                   Italy
                                                                                                                                                                                               Malaysia
                                     15,000
                                                    India            China                                                                                                                 China                 Mexico
                                     10,000                                                                                                                                                                    Brazil
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Egypt
                                                                                                                                                                                               India
                                      5,000
                                                                                                Data: Annual                                                                          0
                                                                                               Source: World Bank, ETF Securities
                                         -                                                                                                                                                 0       5,000    10,000   15,000   20,000   25,000   30,000   35,000    40,000     45,000    50,000
                                              0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48                                                                                                       GDP per capita (current US$)
                                                                        Time (years)
                                                                                                                                    Sources: World Bank, ETF Securities
                                                                                                                                    Data: As of 2008.




                            Page 10                 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
Strategies for 2012 – barbell approaches in favour

    US economic recovery has continued but most of Europe remains in
    recession.
    The still substantial macro and political risks are keeping investors cautious
    and aiding demand for risk hedges. ‘Barbell’ strategies are thus preferred.
    An uncertain economic outlook, coupled with the flood of central bank
    stimulus has historically been supportive of defensive assets such as precious
    metals - gold in particular - high dividend yield stocks and areas where
    investors feel there is more certainty.
    Supply shocks in commodity markets are constraining supplies and in turn
    providing price support:
    □     Middle-East upheaval has added a supply risk premium to oil prices that has reduced recently but is unlikely to
          disappear.
    □     Social unrest in South Africa has lifted platinum and palladium prices as supplies have been reduced.
    □     Copper faced with supply disruptions last year and this year on labour strikes and weather problems in Chile.
    Strong income stream and defensive equities:
    □     Gold mining companies provide investors with an indirect exposure to the gold price.
    □     Companies with a history of providing stable dividends can give investors exposure to stable income streams.




Page 11   For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
Scenario Analysis: What performs when growth is falling?
-5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          -3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                -2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      -1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ETFS Sugar




Page 13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ETFS Physical Gold
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ETFS Gold
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ETFS Precious Metals DJ-UBSCI SM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ETFS Physical PM Basket
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ETFS Silver
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ETFS Physical Silver
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ETFS Platinum
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ETFS Physical Platinum




                                                                 Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ETFS Physical Palladium
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ETFS Coffee
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ETFS Forward Softs DJ-UBSCI SM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ETFS Forward Natural Gas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ETFS Forward Lean Hogs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ETFS Cocoa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ETFS Soybeans
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ETFS Forward Ex-Energy DJ-UBSCI SM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ETFS Lead
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ETFS Physical Lead
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ETFS Forward Agriculture DJ-UBSCI SM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ETFS Forward Livestock DJ-UBSCI SM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ETFS Forward All Commodities DJ-…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ETFS Forward Grains DJ-UBSCI SM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ETFS Forward Live Cattle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ETFS Forward Heating Oil




 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ETFS Forward Energy DJ-UBSCI SM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ETFS Gasoline
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ETFS Soybean Oil
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ETFS Nickel
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ETFS Physical Nickel
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ETFS Forward Petroleum DJ-UBSCI SM



                                                                 the above indexes during the worst 20% months of growth performance over the past 5 years.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ETFS Corn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     outperformed when growth is falling




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ETFS Brent 2yr
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ETFS Forward Brent Crude
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ETFS Forward WTI Crude Oil
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ETFS WTI 3yr
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ETFS Copper
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ETFS Physical Copper
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ETFS Zinc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ETFS Physical Zinc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ETFS Wheat
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ETFS WTI 2yr
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ETFS Brent 1yr
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ETFS Forward Industrial Metals DJ-…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ETFS Brent 3yr
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Long gold, precious metals and sugar ETCs have




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ETFS Physical Aluminum
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ETFS Tin
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ETFS Physical Tin
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ETFS WTI 1yr
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ETFS Aluminium
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ETFS Brent 1mth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ETFS Carbon
                                                                 Growth is calculated as the simple average of US ISM and EU PMI growth on a 3 month moving average basis. The chart above looks at the performance of




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ETFS WTI 2mth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ETFS Cotton
Long IVSTOXX, gold miners and agribusiness have
outperformed when growth is falling
10%

 8%

 6%

 4%

 2%

 0%

-2%

-4%
                                     ETFX DAXglobal Gold Mining Fund




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ETFX DAXglobal Shipping Fund
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ETFX Russell 2000 US Small Cap Fund
                                                                                                             ETFX DAXglobal Alternative Energy Fund




                                                                                                                                                      ETFX WNA Global Nuclear Energy Fund




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ETFX Dow Jones Global Select Dividend




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ETFX AEX® Fund




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ETFX AMX® Fund
           ETFX-BofAML IVSTOXX ETF




                                                                                                                                                                                            ETFX DAXglobal Coal Mining Fund




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ETFX DAXglobal Coal Mining Fund
                                                                       ETFX S-Net ITG Global Agri Business
                                                                                      Fund




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Fund


 Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
 Growth is calculated as the simple average of US ISM and EU PMI growth on a 3 month moving average basis. The chart above looks at the performance of
 the above indexes during the worst 20% months of growth performance over the past 5 years.

Page 14                  For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
What’s driving the gold price and 2012/13 outlook
The world has changed: reserve currencies are being
  debased
                   Historically, gold has tended to perform best during periods of low real interest rates and during periods
                   of high monetary expansion.
                   Most major reserve currency central banks have put in place quantitative and other forms of highly
                   expansionary monetary policy in order to support banks, financial markets and growth. Given continued
                   large debt burdens and weak financial systems, these policies are likely to remain in place for some
                   time.
                   The large increases in money supply have raised currency debasement fears and have kept investor
                   demand for gold as an alternative store of value.

US$ millions                                                                  Federal Reserve Balance Sheet                                                                                                                                                                                                          €millions                                                                                                 ECB Balance Sheet
2,500,000                                                                                Weekly, From Apr 20, 1999 to Mar 20, 2012                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Weekly, From Apr 20, 1999 to Mar 20, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     3,250,000


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2,750,000
2,000,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2,250,000

1,500,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1,750,000


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1,250,000
1,000,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      750,000

 500,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      250,000

                  Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Source: ECB, ETF Securities
       0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              -250,000
                       Oct-1999


                                             Oct-2000


                                                                   Oct-2001


                                                                                         Oct-2002


                                                                                                               Oct-2003


                                                                                                                                     Oct-2004


                                                                                                                                                           Oct-2005


                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-2006


                                                                                                                                                                                                       Oct-2007


                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Oct-2008


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Oct-2009


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct-2010


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Oct-2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Oct-1999


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Oct-2000


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Oct-2001


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Oct-2002


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Oct-2003


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Oct-2004


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Oct-2005


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Oct-2006


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Oct-2007


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Oct-2008


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Oct-2009


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Oct-2010


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Oct-2011
            Apr-1999


                                  Apr-2000


                                                        Apr-2001


                                                                              Apr-2002


                                                                                                    Apr-2003


                                                                                                                          Apr-2004


                                                                                                                                                Apr-2005


                                                                                                                                                                      Apr-2006


                                                                                                                                                                                            Apr-2007


                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Apr-2008


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Apr-2009


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Apr-2010


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-2011


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Apr-2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-1999


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Apr-2000


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Apr-2001


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Apr-2002


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-2003


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Apr-2004


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Apr-2005


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Apr-2006


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-2007


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Apr-2008


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Apr-2009


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Apr-2010


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-2011


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Apr-2012
  Page 16                                     For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
Central banks have switched from net sellers to large net
buyers of gold
    Private investors are not the only ones buying gold. The official sector (mostly central banks) have also been
    increasing holdings, with monetary authorities accounting for 10% of global gold demand in 2011 according to
    the World Gold Council (May 2012). These investors were a net annual supplier of 12% into the market
    between 2001 and 2009, indicating a net switch of over 20 percentage points in gold’s global supply/demand
    balance.
    Rising official net purchases have been spearheaded by surplus emerging market countries. These countries
    have been looking to diversify their foreign exchange holdings on rising sovereign debt concerns across much
    of the developed world.
    Latest IMF data shows that central banks remained strong net gold buyers through the first 4 months of 2012.
                                             Official Gold Sales (% Total Global Supply)
                                                                 Annual, Past 10 Years , 2001 - 2011
                              20%

                              15%

                              10%

                                5%

                                0%

                              -5%

                             -10%
                                         2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
                             Source: ETF Securities, GFMS Thomson Reuters, World Gold Council




Page 17   For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
China a growing force driving physical demand for gold

          China is a growing force driving global gold demand. At the end of Q4 2011 China accounted for 25% of
          total world gold demand, up from only 9% 10 years ago. Jewelry, investment and manufacturing are all
          seeing large increases in demand.
          In the same way that the combination of China’s rising per capita income and its large population is driving
          a structural increase in demand for a wide range of commodities and other goods, gold is also seeing a
          structural upward shift in demand as China and other emerging market economies continue to develop.
          Over the past year China’s imports of gold through Hong Kong have soared. While these numbers may be
          affected by factors other than pure new demand (for example, use as trade collateral), they are generally
          regarded as one of the better windows onto what is otherwise quite an opaque market. Jan-Apr gold
          imports through HK are already more than half last year’s full year numbers, indicating continued robust
          China gold demand this year.
                                                                                                                                                                        China Gold Imports from Hong Kong
                            Global Gold Consumption by Country                                                                                                                   Annual (2012 excluded), 2001-2012                                % demand
Tonnes                            Tonnes (LHS axis) and % of Global Demand (Labels)                                                          500                                                                                                             25%
250                                                                                                                                                                   China imports (tonnes, LHS axis)                    % global demand
                                                                                                                           2011 (Q4)         450
                                        25%                                                                                2001 (Q4)         400                                                                                                             20%
200                   21%
                                                                                                                                             350
              21%
                                                                                                                                             300                                                                                                             15%
150
                                                                                                                                15%          250
                                                                                                                                             200                                                                                                             10%
100                                                                                                                                          150
                                                 9%
                                                                                                                         7%                  100                                                                                                             5%
 50                                                                 5%                                                                        50
                                                                                                      4%
                                                                                              3%
                                                                           1%                                                                  0                                                                                                             0%
                                                                                                                                                      2001

                                                                                                                                                               2002

                                                                                                                                                                         2003

                                                                                                                                                                                2004

                                                                                                                                                                                        2005

                                                                                                                                                                                                2006

                                                                                                                                                                                                        2007

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2008

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan - Apr
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2012*
  0
                 India                    China*                  Germany                      Turkey                       USA
Source: World Gold Council, ETF Securities. Countries listed are the top 5 global gold consumers as at end Q4 2011. Consumption defined as
                                                                                                                                             Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, World Gold Council, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department, ETF Securities
investment and jewellery demand.
* Greater China including Taiwan, Hong Kong                                                                                                  Note: Global gold demand is as of Q1 2012, as latest available.


Page 18                For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
Emerging market gold reserve holdings still low

    China’s central bank gold holdings stand at around only 1.7% of total reserves. This compares to a
    world average of 12% and 76% for the US. Most large developed countries hold more than 60% of their
    reserves in gold and this level has been increasing recently.
    Given that China’s total reserves now stand at US$3.3tn, an increase in its gold reserve holdings just to
    the world’s average of around 11% would equate to over US$350bn of gold purchases at today’s prices
    or 194mn ounces, around 1.5 times the world’s total annual gold output. An increase to US levels would
    be equivalent to around 10 years of current annual gold output.

                                               Central Bank Gold Holdings as % of Total Reserves
                                                                  % Total Reserves, Quarterly data, From Q3 2001 to Q3 2011
                               90
                                                  China                     France                    Germany                           India                 United States
                               80

                               70

                               60

                               50

                               40

                               30

                               20

                               10

                                0
                                    Q3 2001
                                              Q1 2002
                                                        Q3 2002
                                                                  Q1 2003
                                                                            Q3 2003
                                                                                      Q1 2004
                                                                                                Q3 2004
                                                                                                          Q1 2005
                                                                                                                    Q3 2005
                                                                                                                              Q1 2006
                                                                                                                                          Q3 2006
                                                                                                                                                    Q1 2007
                                                                                                                                                              Q3 2007
                                                                                                                                                                        Q1 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                  Q3 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                            Q1 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Q3 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Q1 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Q3 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Q1 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Q3 2011
                               Source: World, Gold Council, ETF Securities

Page 19   For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
Gold still a small part of global portfolio assets

    Gold accounts for just 1% of global financial portfolios according to World Gold Council estimates.
    Low weighting despite the fact that gold market liquidity is extremely high with around US$250bn traded
    daily based on London Bullion Market Association estimates1.
    On these numbers, if gold holdings were to increase to just 2% of global financial portfolios, it would be
    equal to nearly 6 years of 2011 annual gold supply.


                                            Global Portfolio Allocations Across Financial Markets
                                                                                                     Gold
                                                                               Alternatives
                                                                                                      1%
                                                                                    4%


                                                                            Money
                                                                            Markets
                                                                             9%



                                                                                                            Bonds
                                                                                                             49%


                                                                    Equities
                                                                      37%




                                   Figures estimated as at December 2010, World Gold Council study

                     1LBMA   Gold Turnover Survey for Q1 2011. http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Loco_London_Liquidity_Surveyrv.pdf


Page 20   For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
Is gold in a “bubble?”

    The rise of the gold price in recent years has been relatively steady, even taking recent price volatility into
    account. The pace of price gains so far is still just a fraction of those seen in previous asset “bubble” episodes
    such as the gold price rise in the 1972-1982 period and the NASDAQ dot.com bubble of 1995-2005.
    So far the gold price has not experienced the typical exponential rise seen in the run-up to the collapse of
    previous asset price bubbles.

                                                       Is Gold in a Bubble?
                                                 Index level, Daily data rebased to 100
            3,200
                              Gold Price (31/08/1968 - 31/08/1985)            Gold Price (24/05/2002 - 24/05/2012)
            2,800             NASDAQ Index (31/08/1988 - 31/08/2005)

            2,400

            2,000

            1,600

            1,200

              800

              400

                 0
                     0       1      2       3    4    5     6        7   8     9    10    12     13    14    15      16
                                                            Number of Years
             Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities



Page 21   For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
Gold investor positioning

            Most investors in gold ETPs have medium-to-long term time horizons, buying for portfolio diversification and as
            a hedge for inflation, risk and currency debasement. In August and September 2011 when prices corrected
            sharply, gold ETP holdings held firm and rose further in October. During the most recent gold price correction
            gold ETP holdings have also held relatively firm.
            Most of the short-term speculative investment takes place in the gold futures market as reflected in sharp
            swings in futures positioning during both upward and downward price corrections. After building up large net
            longs in Jan and Feb 2012, net speculative longs have now dropped back to end 2008 lows, indicating that
            much of the speculative froth in the market has been cleared.

Gold Global ETP Holdings (mn oz)                                                 COMEX Gold
Daily Data, From 25 Apr 07 to 25 May 2012                                        Daily Data, From Jun 01, 2011 to Jun 01, 2012
90                                                                              '000 contracts                                                '000 contracts
                                                                                500
80                                                                                                                     Trading Volume (LHS)
                                                                                450                                                                     300
                                                                                                                       Net Non-Commercial Positions
70                                                                              400
60                                                                              350                                                                     250
50                                                                              300
                                                                                250
40                                                                                                                                                      200
                                                                                200
30
                                                                                150
20                                                                              100                                                                     150

10                                                                                50

 0                                                                                  0                                                                  100
 Apr 07           Apr 08             Apr 09   Apr 10      Apr 11                    Jun 11      Aug 11        Oct 11
                                                                       Apr 12 Sources: ETF Securities, Bloomberg       Dec 11   Feb 12   Apr 12   Jun 12
Sources: ETF Securities, Bloomberg


     Page 22        For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
Using a physical precious metals basket as a
portfolio diversifier
ETFS Physical PM Basket (PHPM)

   A basket of all four precious metals: Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium.
   Methodology: fixed quantity of metal with implied US dollar weights changing based on
   relative performance over time.
   Tracks spot prices less the annual management fee (0.44% per annum as at 31 May 2012).


                   ETFS Physical PM Basket – Metal Weights
                           Metal                  24/04/2007*             31/05/2012
                    Palladium                          11.7%                10.0%
                    Platinum                           20.3%                11.5%
                    Silver                             25.8%                27.5%
                    Gold                               42.2%                51.1%
                     Source: ETF Securities. * Listing date.




Page 24   For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
Precious metals vs broad commodity indexes

  • Precious metals as a group have outperformed most major asset classes, including most broad
    commodity benchmarks over the past ten years.
  • They have also tended to have a lower correlation with most global equity benchmarks.
  • Volatility has been modestly higher than broad commodities and similar or lower than most
    equity benchmarks.

                                              Asset Class Returns (EUR returns to 22 May 2012)
                                                              Cumulative Returns (EUR)                                  Correlations with
                                                                                                                                                                       Sharpe
                                                                                                                    Eurostoxx                             Volatility
                                                  YTD         1 Yr       3 Yrs       5 Yrs      10 Yrs     FTSE 100                S&P 500        DAX30                 Ratio
                                                                                                                       50
  Physical PM Basket                                  5%          7%         83%         104%      163%        0.09        0.00        0.04       0.02       18.7%      0.489
  DJ-UBS Commodity 3 Month Forward Index              -3%         -7%        31%           7%      121%        0.38        0.29         0.32      0.28        16%        0.44
  EuroStoxx 50 Index                                  -3%        -19%         0%         -42%      -15%        0.86         1.00        0.52      0.94        26%       -0.10
  S&P 500 Index                                        7%         13%        74%           2%        8%         0.50        0.52        1.00      0.56        23%       -0.01
  MSCI AC World Index                                 4%           2%        49%         -10%       14%        0.76        0.76         0.89      0.76        18%        0.02
  Hedge Fund Multi Strategy Index                      7%         14%        38%          20%       34%        -0.05       -0.01       -0.01      0.00        10%        0.19
  EUR/USD Currency                                    -2%         -9%         -9%         -5%       38%         0.00        0.13       -0.32      0.09        10%        0.21
All returns, correlations and volatilities are based on actual index data or underlying commodity prices excluding fees. Returns are in EUR, dates are from the 22nd May 2002
to the 22nd May 2012, unless otherwise stated. Sharpe ratios are based on 10 year returns, 10 year volatility and a risk free rate of 1.04% (average of US 5Yr rates over 1
Physical PM Basket includes gold, silver, platinum and palladium. Weights as of 31/5/12 were gold-51%, silver-28%, Palladium 11%, platinum 10%.
Source: ETF Securities, Bloomberg




Page 25         For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico
June 2012   monthly sales presentation usd mexico

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June 2012 monthly sales presentation usd mexico

  • 2. Contents Product Offering………………………………………………………………………………………..................... The Macro Context…………………......………………………………………………............................................................ Scenario Analysis: What performs when growth is falling?.……………………............................................................ What’s driving the gold price and 2012/13 outlook.......................................................................................................... Using a physical precious metals basket as a portfolio diversifier………………….......................................................... Platinum and Palladium: the industrial precious metals................................................................................................... Copper: Canary in the coalmine...................................................................................................................................... Hedged Commodity ETPs – How do they work and how can they be used? ................................................................ Performance Tables...………………….………………………………………………………………………...................…..... Equities………………………………………………………………………………...................................…..............................................….. - Commodities………………………………………………………...……………………................................................................................... FX………………………………………………………………………………………………............................................................................. Appendix - (1) Scenario Analysis: What Performs When Growth is Rising?..................................…....................................................................…... • Page 2 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 3. Our product offerings Commodity ETCs Currency ETCs Equity ETFs Diversified Broad Agriculture Long or Short US Equities Industrial Metals USD/EUR/GBP vs G10 Commodities Energy USD vs EMs (CNY & INR) European Equities Livestock Thematic Equities Precious Metals Long (1x) Long (1x) Long (1x) Short (-1x) Short (-1x) Double Short (-2x) Double Leveraged (2x) Triple Long (3x) Double Leveraged (2x) Physical (1x) Triple Short (-3x) Forward (1x) These products are listed on one or more of the following exchanges: London, New York, Tokyo, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Paris, Sydney, Milan and Dublin Page 3 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 4. ETPs: a practical primer to product structure Stock Exchange Exchange Traded Product • Intra day trading on exchange • Open-ended security • All asset classes • Delta-one, short & leveraged Physically Backed Collateralised • Hold 100% of constituent • Hold less than 100% of the Uncollateralised constituent assets • Unsecured risks to the issuer assets • Use collateral to cover risks or a bank balance sheet. • No lending allowed arising from securities lending or swap exposure • ETFS Metal Securities Limited • ETFS Commodities • Gold Bullion Securities Securities Limited • ETFS Oil Securities Limited Limited • ETFS Foreign Exchange • ETFS Industrial Metal Limited Securities Limited Page 4 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 5. ETCs Instrument to facilitate investment in commodities Increased demand for commodities exposure Investor Demand Limited investment options to invest in commodities because European Undertakings for Collective Investment in The Challenge Transferable Securities funds (UCITS) are not allowed to invest in physical commodities or derivatives directly and they need to be diversified There is a need for a new exchange traded instrument to provide a simple access to commodities in a more flexible way (single commodity) with close correlation to the underlying Creation of ETCs to replicate the characteristics of an exchange Introduction of ETCs traded UCITS fund □ Open ended, cost efficient, transparent and bankruptcy remote □ Trustee structure and English-law security charges provide significant protections against issuer and counterparty risk □ ETCs are eligible for investment by UCITS funds as transferable securities that do not embed a derivative Page 5 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 7. Greek concerns spur flight to safety Even following Greece’s orderly debt restructuring earlier this year, its debt remains above 120% of GDP, a level considered unsustainable by most analysts. With pro-reform parties knocked out of power in Greece’s early May elections, there are growing concerns that Greece may opt for a disorderly default and leave the Euro. Fears of possible highly disruptive contagion are keeping investors on the sidelines. Spain and Italy – Spain in particular – have also been dragged back towards crisis, with government bond spreads widening sharply as fiscal and growth concerns have returned. Therefore, while the initial Greek debt restructuring and large liquidity interventions by the ECB staved off a broad European sovereign crisis earlier this year, the root structural problems are far from being resolved. This will likely keep markets on edge and keep central banks in easing mode for the foreseeable future. Investors Flee to Safety Spanish and Italian Bond Spreads Surge % (10-yr US Treasury and German Bund yields) 4.0 10-yr spreads to German Bunds (Bps), From May 19, 2010 to May 18, 2012 600 Spain Italy 3.5 500 3.0 400 2.5 2.0 300 US Germany 1.5 200 1.0 100 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities 0 Apr-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 May-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 May-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 May-12 Jun-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Jun-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 0.0 Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Page 7 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 8. Mixed global growth prospects US jobs, housing and manufacturing data have been improving, supporting the household sector. Despite a weak payrolls report for May, over 2 million jobs have been added to US economy over the past 15 months. The manufacturing ISM has been on a rising trend since November 2011, helping drive a global industrial recovery. The Eurozone, however, has been showing distinct signs of economic weakness, with most countries in recession and only Germany currently managing to hold growth above zero. China’s economy has slowed, but with GDP growth of 8.1% in 1Q 2012, it is still strong. China’s authorities are now reacting strongly, cutting bank reserve requirements, easing credit controls and announcing new fiscal stimulus. While the growth moderation may continue in the near-term, the substantial fiscal and monetary resources available should help support continued healthy growth. Manufacturing PMI: Europe, China and US Index level, Monthly Data, From May 31, 2007 to May 31, 2012 % More Stimulus to Come % 65 25 10 China Reserve Ratio Requirement 60 20 Chinese CPI 7 55 50 15 4 45 10 1 40 35 5 -2 30 Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities EU PMI US PMI China PMI 25 0 -5 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 May 07 May 08 May 09 May 10 May 11 May 12 Source: ETF Securities, Bloomberg Page 8 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 9. Accommodative monetary policy here to stay Low interest rates and more liquidity to offset fiscal retrenchment and support weak financial sectors are likely to remain key features of the global central bank policy in 2012. The US Federal Reserve committed to loose monetary policy until late 2014. Potential for QE3. Bank of England pumped another £50bn into the UK economy at the beginning of February, with the Bank of Japan also adding ¥10tn (approx. US$125bn) to its asset purchase scheme during the same period. The ECB balance sheet is expanding rapidly: the second round of Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) at the end of February 2012 added €530bn to bank balance sheets after pumping in €489bn in December 2011. Banks have the liquidity for 3 years. China has reduced bank reserve requirements three times in past six months to support the real economy and more recently has started to relax credit controls. Gold price vs. US real interest rate US Base Money * % p.a. Daily data, 03/23/1977 - 03/23/2012 USD/oz Monthly, in US$bn, April 30, 1960 - April 30, 2012 -10 2250 3,000 Real interest rate (inverted)* Gold spot price (RHS axis) 2,500 -6 1750 2,000 -2 1250 1,500 2 750 1,000 500 6 250 0 10 -250 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Mar 77 Mar 82 Mar 87 Mar 92 Mar 97 Mar 02 Mar 07 Mar 12 Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities * Currency in circulation and commercial banks reserves with the US Federal Reserve. From first available data. * 2 year US governement bond rates ajusted for current month inflation rate (per annum). Page 9 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 10. Long-term structural factors remain commodity supportive Despite near-term volatility, long-term structural factors remain supportive of commodity prices. The continued industrialisation and increasing incomes of large population developing economies such as China and India are supporting long-term commodity demand. Supply remains constrained and increasingly difficult to access, pushing commodity prices higher. More recently, high and rising developed economy debt levels and unprecedented monetary expansion have increased demand for “hard assets” as a hedge against inflation and potential currency debasement. Rising per Capita Incomes Drive Commodity Demand 9,000 $US Asian Development Rates Energy Use (Kg of oil equivalent per capita) 45,000 USA Japan (t=0, 1962) 40,000 Gross National Income (per capita) Korea (t=0, 1974) Australia 35,000 6,000 China (t=0, 1995) 30,000 Russia India (t=0, 2002) Germany 25,000 France Japan Malaysia (t=0, 1973) UK 20,000 3,000 Italy Malaysia 15,000 India China China Mexico 10,000 Brazil Egypt India 5,000 Data: Annual 0 Source: World Bank, ETF Securities - 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 GDP per capita (current US$) Time (years) Sources: World Bank, ETF Securities Data: As of 2008. Page 10 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 11. Strategies for 2012 – barbell approaches in favour US economic recovery has continued but most of Europe remains in recession. The still substantial macro and political risks are keeping investors cautious and aiding demand for risk hedges. ‘Barbell’ strategies are thus preferred. An uncertain economic outlook, coupled with the flood of central bank stimulus has historically been supportive of defensive assets such as precious metals - gold in particular - high dividend yield stocks and areas where investors feel there is more certainty. Supply shocks in commodity markets are constraining supplies and in turn providing price support: □ Middle-East upheaval has added a supply risk premium to oil prices that has reduced recently but is unlikely to disappear. □ Social unrest in South Africa has lifted platinum and palladium prices as supplies have been reduced. □ Copper faced with supply disruptions last year and this year on labour strikes and weather problems in Chile. Strong income stream and defensive equities: □ Gold mining companies provide investors with an indirect exposure to the gold price. □ Companies with a history of providing stable dividends can give investors exposure to stable income streams. Page 11 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 12. Scenario Analysis: What performs when growth is falling?
  • 13. -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% ETFS Sugar Page 13 ETFS Physical Gold ETFS Gold ETFS Precious Metals DJ-UBSCI SM ETFS Physical PM Basket ETFS Silver ETFS Physical Silver ETFS Platinum ETFS Physical Platinum Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities ETFS Physical Palladium ETFS Coffee ETFS Forward Softs DJ-UBSCI SM ETFS Forward Natural Gas ETFS Forward Lean Hogs ETFS Cocoa ETFS Soybeans ETFS Forward Ex-Energy DJ-UBSCI SM ETFS Lead ETFS Physical Lead ETFS Forward Agriculture DJ-UBSCI SM ETFS Forward Livestock DJ-UBSCI SM ETFS Forward All Commodities DJ-… ETFS Forward Grains DJ-UBSCI SM ETFS Forward Live Cattle ETFS Forward Heating Oil For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination ETFS Forward Energy DJ-UBSCI SM ETFS Gasoline ETFS Soybean Oil ETFS Nickel ETFS Physical Nickel ETFS Forward Petroleum DJ-UBSCI SM the above indexes during the worst 20% months of growth performance over the past 5 years. ETFS Corn outperformed when growth is falling ETFS Brent 2yr ETFS Forward Brent Crude ETFS Forward WTI Crude Oil ETFS WTI 3yr ETFS Copper ETFS Physical Copper ETFS Zinc ETFS Physical Zinc ETFS Wheat ETFS WTI 2yr ETFS Brent 1yr ETFS Forward Industrial Metals DJ-… ETFS Brent 3yr Long gold, precious metals and sugar ETCs have ETFS Physical Aluminum ETFS Tin ETFS Physical Tin ETFS WTI 1yr ETFS Aluminium ETFS Brent 1mth ETFS Carbon Growth is calculated as the simple average of US ISM and EU PMI growth on a 3 month moving average basis. The chart above looks at the performance of ETFS WTI 2mth ETFS Cotton
  • 14. Long IVSTOXX, gold miners and agribusiness have outperformed when growth is falling 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% ETFX DAXglobal Gold Mining Fund ETFX DAXglobal Shipping Fund ETFX Russell 2000 US Small Cap Fund ETFX DAXglobal Alternative Energy Fund ETFX WNA Global Nuclear Energy Fund ETFX Dow Jones Global Select Dividend ETFX AEX® Fund ETFX AMX® Fund ETFX-BofAML IVSTOXX ETF ETFX DAXglobal Coal Mining Fund ETFX DAXglobal Coal Mining Fund ETFX S-Net ITG Global Agri Business Fund Fund Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Growth is calculated as the simple average of US ISM and EU PMI growth on a 3 month moving average basis. The chart above looks at the performance of the above indexes during the worst 20% months of growth performance over the past 5 years. Page 14 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 15. What’s driving the gold price and 2012/13 outlook
  • 16. The world has changed: reserve currencies are being debased Historically, gold has tended to perform best during periods of low real interest rates and during periods of high monetary expansion. Most major reserve currency central banks have put in place quantitative and other forms of highly expansionary monetary policy in order to support banks, financial markets and growth. Given continued large debt burdens and weak financial systems, these policies are likely to remain in place for some time. The large increases in money supply have raised currency debasement fears and have kept investor demand for gold as an alternative store of value. US$ millions Federal Reserve Balance Sheet €millions ECB Balance Sheet 2,500,000 Weekly, From Apr 20, 1999 to Mar 20, 2012 Weekly, From Apr 20, 1999 to Mar 20, 2012 3,250,000 2,750,000 2,000,000 2,250,000 1,500,000 1,750,000 1,250,000 1,000,000 750,000 500,000 250,000 Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Source: ECB, ETF Securities 0 -250,000 Oct-1999 Oct-2000 Oct-2001 Oct-2002 Oct-2003 Oct-2004 Oct-2005 Oct-2006 Oct-2007 Oct-2008 Oct-2009 Oct-2010 Oct-2011 Oct-1999 Oct-2000 Oct-2001 Oct-2002 Oct-2003 Oct-2004 Oct-2005 Oct-2006 Oct-2007 Oct-2008 Oct-2009 Oct-2010 Oct-2011 Apr-1999 Apr-2000 Apr-2001 Apr-2002 Apr-2003 Apr-2004 Apr-2005 Apr-2006 Apr-2007 Apr-2008 Apr-2009 Apr-2010 Apr-2011 Apr-2012 Apr-1999 Apr-2000 Apr-2001 Apr-2002 Apr-2003 Apr-2004 Apr-2005 Apr-2006 Apr-2007 Apr-2008 Apr-2009 Apr-2010 Apr-2011 Apr-2012 Page 16 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 17. Central banks have switched from net sellers to large net buyers of gold Private investors are not the only ones buying gold. The official sector (mostly central banks) have also been increasing holdings, with monetary authorities accounting for 10% of global gold demand in 2011 according to the World Gold Council (May 2012). These investors were a net annual supplier of 12% into the market between 2001 and 2009, indicating a net switch of over 20 percentage points in gold’s global supply/demand balance. Rising official net purchases have been spearheaded by surplus emerging market countries. These countries have been looking to diversify their foreign exchange holdings on rising sovereign debt concerns across much of the developed world. Latest IMF data shows that central banks remained strong net gold buyers through the first 4 months of 2012. Official Gold Sales (% Total Global Supply) Annual, Past 10 Years , 2001 - 2011 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: ETF Securities, GFMS Thomson Reuters, World Gold Council Page 17 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 18. China a growing force driving physical demand for gold China is a growing force driving global gold demand. At the end of Q4 2011 China accounted for 25% of total world gold demand, up from only 9% 10 years ago. Jewelry, investment and manufacturing are all seeing large increases in demand. In the same way that the combination of China’s rising per capita income and its large population is driving a structural increase in demand for a wide range of commodities and other goods, gold is also seeing a structural upward shift in demand as China and other emerging market economies continue to develop. Over the past year China’s imports of gold through Hong Kong have soared. While these numbers may be affected by factors other than pure new demand (for example, use as trade collateral), they are generally regarded as one of the better windows onto what is otherwise quite an opaque market. Jan-Apr gold imports through HK are already more than half last year’s full year numbers, indicating continued robust China gold demand this year. China Gold Imports from Hong Kong Global Gold Consumption by Country Annual (2012 excluded), 2001-2012 % demand Tonnes Tonnes (LHS axis) and % of Global Demand (Labels) 500 25% 250 China imports (tonnes, LHS axis) % global demand 2011 (Q4) 450 25% 2001 (Q4) 400 20% 200 21% 350 21% 300 15% 150 15% 250 200 10% 100 150 9% 7% 100 5% 50 5% 50 4% 3% 1% 0 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan - Apr 2012* 0 India China* Germany Turkey USA Source: World Gold Council, ETF Securities. Countries listed are the top 5 global gold consumers as at end Q4 2011. Consumption defined as Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, World Gold Council, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department, ETF Securities investment and jewellery demand. * Greater China including Taiwan, Hong Kong Note: Global gold demand is as of Q1 2012, as latest available. Page 18 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 19. Emerging market gold reserve holdings still low China’s central bank gold holdings stand at around only 1.7% of total reserves. This compares to a world average of 12% and 76% for the US. Most large developed countries hold more than 60% of their reserves in gold and this level has been increasing recently. Given that China’s total reserves now stand at US$3.3tn, an increase in its gold reserve holdings just to the world’s average of around 11% would equate to over US$350bn of gold purchases at today’s prices or 194mn ounces, around 1.5 times the world’s total annual gold output. An increase to US levels would be equivalent to around 10 years of current annual gold output. Central Bank Gold Holdings as % of Total Reserves % Total Reserves, Quarterly data, From Q3 2001 to Q3 2011 90 China France Germany India United States 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Q3 2001 Q1 2002 Q3 2002 Q1 2003 Q3 2003 Q1 2004 Q3 2004 Q1 2005 Q3 2005 Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 Q1 2008 Q3 2008 Q1 2009 Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q3 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Source: World, Gold Council, ETF Securities Page 19 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 20. Gold still a small part of global portfolio assets Gold accounts for just 1% of global financial portfolios according to World Gold Council estimates. Low weighting despite the fact that gold market liquidity is extremely high with around US$250bn traded daily based on London Bullion Market Association estimates1. On these numbers, if gold holdings were to increase to just 2% of global financial portfolios, it would be equal to nearly 6 years of 2011 annual gold supply. Global Portfolio Allocations Across Financial Markets Gold Alternatives 1% 4% Money Markets 9% Bonds 49% Equities 37% Figures estimated as at December 2010, World Gold Council study 1LBMA Gold Turnover Survey for Q1 2011. http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Loco_London_Liquidity_Surveyrv.pdf Page 20 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 21. Is gold in a “bubble?” The rise of the gold price in recent years has been relatively steady, even taking recent price volatility into account. The pace of price gains so far is still just a fraction of those seen in previous asset “bubble” episodes such as the gold price rise in the 1972-1982 period and the NASDAQ dot.com bubble of 1995-2005. So far the gold price has not experienced the typical exponential rise seen in the run-up to the collapse of previous asset price bubbles. Is Gold in a Bubble? Index level, Daily data rebased to 100 3,200 Gold Price (31/08/1968 - 31/08/1985) Gold Price (24/05/2002 - 24/05/2012) 2,800 NASDAQ Index (31/08/1988 - 31/08/2005) 2,400 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 400 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 Number of Years Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Page 21 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 22. Gold investor positioning Most investors in gold ETPs have medium-to-long term time horizons, buying for portfolio diversification and as a hedge for inflation, risk and currency debasement. In August and September 2011 when prices corrected sharply, gold ETP holdings held firm and rose further in October. During the most recent gold price correction gold ETP holdings have also held relatively firm. Most of the short-term speculative investment takes place in the gold futures market as reflected in sharp swings in futures positioning during both upward and downward price corrections. After building up large net longs in Jan and Feb 2012, net speculative longs have now dropped back to end 2008 lows, indicating that much of the speculative froth in the market has been cleared. Gold Global ETP Holdings (mn oz) COMEX Gold Daily Data, From 25 Apr 07 to 25 May 2012 Daily Data, From Jun 01, 2011 to Jun 01, 2012 90 '000 contracts '000 contracts 500 80 Trading Volume (LHS) 450 300 Net Non-Commercial Positions 70 400 60 350 250 50 300 250 40 200 200 30 150 20 100 150 10 50 0 0 100 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jun 11 Aug 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Sources: ETF Securities, Bloomberg Dec 11 Feb 12 Apr 12 Jun 12 Sources: ETF Securities, Bloomberg Page 22 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 23. Using a physical precious metals basket as a portfolio diversifier
  • 24. ETFS Physical PM Basket (PHPM) A basket of all four precious metals: Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium. Methodology: fixed quantity of metal with implied US dollar weights changing based on relative performance over time. Tracks spot prices less the annual management fee (0.44% per annum as at 31 May 2012). ETFS Physical PM Basket – Metal Weights Metal 24/04/2007* 31/05/2012 Palladium 11.7% 10.0% Platinum 20.3% 11.5% Silver 25.8% 27.5% Gold 42.2% 51.1% Source: ETF Securities. * Listing date. Page 24 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination
  • 25. Precious metals vs broad commodity indexes • Precious metals as a group have outperformed most major asset classes, including most broad commodity benchmarks over the past ten years. • They have also tended to have a lower correlation with most global equity benchmarks. • Volatility has been modestly higher than broad commodities and similar or lower than most equity benchmarks. Asset Class Returns (EUR returns to 22 May 2012) Cumulative Returns (EUR) Correlations with Sharpe Eurostoxx Volatility YTD 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs FTSE 100 S&P 500 DAX30 Ratio 50 Physical PM Basket 5% 7% 83% 104% 163% 0.09 0.00 0.04 0.02 18.7% 0.489 DJ-UBS Commodity 3 Month Forward Index -3% -7% 31% 7% 121% 0.38 0.29 0.32 0.28 16% 0.44 EuroStoxx 50 Index -3% -19% 0% -42% -15% 0.86 1.00 0.52 0.94 26% -0.10 S&P 500 Index 7% 13% 74% 2% 8% 0.50 0.52 1.00 0.56 23% -0.01 MSCI AC World Index 4% 2% 49% -10% 14% 0.76 0.76 0.89 0.76 18% 0.02 Hedge Fund Multi Strategy Index 7% 14% 38% 20% 34% -0.05 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 10% 0.19 EUR/USD Currency -2% -9% -9% -5% 38% 0.00 0.13 -0.32 0.09 10% 0.21 All returns, correlations and volatilities are based on actual index data or underlying commodity prices excluding fees. Returns are in EUR, dates are from the 22nd May 2002 to the 22nd May 2012, unless otherwise stated. Sharpe ratios are based on 10 year returns, 10 year volatility and a risk free rate of 1.04% (average of US 5Yr rates over 1 Physical PM Basket includes gold, silver, platinum and palladium. Weights as of 31/5/12 were gold-51%, silver-28%, Palladium 11%, platinum 10%. Source: ETF Securities, Bloomberg Page 25 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination