LAST ISSUE we noted 2010 had been an unlucky year for crop weather. Now 2011seems to be starting in the same vein with record floods spoiling east Australian wheat harvest quality and a ‘La Nina’-linked drought threatening Argentine maize and soya output.
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Wenger_Ad_2010_210x147mm 5/24/10 9:37 AM Page 1
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Shangdong.indd 1 01/06/2010 11:35
wheat – the main export component for this, situation is not yet as bad as in 2008 when rocketing
Early forecasts the world’s largest wheat exporter. A much- food costs, led by cereals, caused riots in many
that 40/60% of
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devastating heatwaves and droughts is still fraught
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developing countries. Wheat prices, in particular,
are still lower than then and production in poorer
countries is stronger, it points out. Yet, with the
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30 | January - february 2011 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy &
&
Grain feed millinG technoloGy
Grain feed millinG technoloGy
Grain feed millinG technoloGy January - february 2011 | 5
January - february 2011 || 23
January - february 2011 31
4. Innovative extrusion processes without limits. Buhler is the global technology
partner for companies producing breakfast cereals, snack foods, or food ingre-
crops. The US needs a decent HRW crop to somewhat by upward revisions to Argentina’s be needed from now on though and, even if
keep up with world demand which has risen crop, now seen around 15m tonnes by local that transpires, prices at the close of 2011 will
dients on a commercial scale. With its extensive extrusion know-how and its
strongly for this variety in first half 2010/11
season on the back of shortages and higher
analysts compared with 11m last year. Larger
export supplies from this source have been
probably manage to get only halfway back to
their 2010 lows at best.
passion for customized solutions, Buhler is always in a position to generate
prices for other hard bread wheats. On figuring in a number of recent import tenders.
added value and success for any product idea. Buhler offers an integral range
the plus side the US has sown almost 10% Australia crop estimates have also risen
KEY WHEAT FACTORS IN THE
more winter wheat in total this year than last since latter 2010 with the popular figure of products and services for all process stages – from correct raw material
(although less HRW than expected earlier). around 25m tonnes – one of its largest crops MONTHS AHEAD
HRW export prices have recently reflected ever. If, as some observers think, some of handling, cooking and shaping through extrusion to drying of the extruded
these events, rising to a new 2½-year peak of the downgraded milling wheat may yet be fit • Spring/summer weather for winter-sown
$327 at US Gulf ports, exactly double what for blending in food rather than feed outlets, crops in the EU, N America, former Soviet products. And this for all market segments – from breakfast cereals and snack
importers could have bought it for in mid-2010. Australia may be far from written off as a force Union
US hard red spring bread wheat prices have in the global milling wheat export markets (It • Spring wheat planting results in the above foods to modified flours and starches, texturised proteins, or vitaminised rice.
too has been quite prominent • Level of increased wheat feeding globally to
in recent big tenders, keeping make up for tighter maize and barley In short: extrusion processes without limits.
other suppliers from hoisting • Speculative activity in wheat futures linked
prices too quickly). to the $ exchange rate, macro economic
Russia, as expected has pointers, media spotlight on world food/ Bühler AG, Pasta & Extruded Products, CH-9240 Uzwil, Switzerland, T +41 71 955 11 11, F +41 71 955 35 82
stayed out of the market and inflation issues extrusion@buhlergroup.com, www.buhlergroup.com/extrusion
made various noises about • Importers’ willingness to ‘de-stock’ and hold
keeping its options open for out for possibly cheaper new crop wheat
a more prolonged absence
depending on this year’s crop
weather. It will also plant more
Screws tighten further on maize
spring wheat, which yields US maize prices jumped to 30-month highs
less but can be higher quality. in January after the USDA reduced its final US
also jumped to a new high of $423/tonne – a Ukraine has planted more winter wheat. The 2010 crop estimate from 318.5m to 316.2m
54% increase from last year’s lows with similar other big regional exporter Kazakshstan is an tonnes – still the third largest harvest ever
grade Canadian CWRS prices advancing at a unknown quantity at this stage but, along with but well short of this season’s combined US
similar pace. the region as a whole, might be expected to domestic and export needs for 342m. The
Despite Russia’s shortfall, ordinary soft produce a much better crop in 2011 if the resultant cut in forecast US ending stocks –
milling wheats are not in bad supply and prices weather normalizes. The success or otherwise to 18.9m tonnes puts them at just 5.5% of
of these have risen more slowly than those of of former Soviet Union crops will, as always, consumption – less than three week’s supply
the hard wheats. However, this largest sector be key to where the world wheat price sets and the lowest level since the record-small
of the market is still being pulled up from above its floor next season. (5%) ratio of 1995/96. The USDA also cut
by consumers seeking alternatives to tight, Finally to the EU, which, apart from rain its Argentine crop estimate by 1.5m to 23.5m
more expensive quality wheat supplies and, plagued Germany, survived last year’s weather tonnes, reducing world total maize output
pushed from below by increased substitution challenges with a far better overall crop than from December’s forecast 820.7m to 816m
of wheat for short coarse supplies by the anyone imagined in the drought-ridden tonnes.
animal feed sector. summer. Plantings are up but not to the same Although USDA also trimmed world maize
The latest snapshot of world wheat extent as in the USA. Crops have survived a consumption and imports slightly, this still
production from the USDA was seen mildly harsh winter well so far and harvests should knocks another 3m tonnes off this season’s
increase next summer. The big carry-out stocks at 127m tonnes – about 20m
issue at this stage, however, is less than last year’s.
the hectic pace of exports to Questions dominating US – and global –
capitalize on these high world maize market in the New Year all revolve
prices, especially from France around cost. Has the price risen far enough
and the UK, where supplies yet to reflect these fundamentals, to ration
risk running very low before demand at a sustainable level, and to ‘buy’
the next harvest. This may lead the necessary acres to grow an adequate crop
to some late season price blips in 2011?
and more intra-EU trade to fill The answer to the first question depends
gaps, or even more imports on the other two. Certainly import demand
from non-EU countries. Along for US maize has drifted down after prices
bullish by the markets as the Department with the chronic weakness of the Euro and almost doubled in second half 2011 although
lowered its US wheat stocks estimate to the constant bursts of strength in Chicago the seasonal forecast for US exports remains
reflect a further shift in world import demand futures markets, this has recently pushed EU close to 2009/10’s 50m tonnes. US demand
to the top supplier. However, US stocks by the wheat futures prices to their highest levels on the other hand is still forecast 10m tonnes
next harvest (starting in May in the southern since March 2008. higher this season than last, mostly due to
states) will still be huge at over 22m tonnes. For ward Chicago futures suggest an higher ethanol usage and a smaller gain in feed.
So, even if the US crop is a little mediocre, it eventual 10 % premium on new crop World maize demand in total is forecast 23.5m
should still have one of its largest total supplies wheat but with decent weather, such ‘price tonnes higher. Like the US, China is expected
of recent years. revelation’ predictions could be swept away to use about 10m tonnes more, the rest of
Markets have also been comfor ted – as they were in 2008. Good weather will the gain demand spread among many smaller
The solution behind the solution.
34 | January - february 2011 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
5. News January - February 2011
News January - February 2011
NEWS
NEWS
4B Braime Elevator Hubbard Feeds Named 2010 Feed Mill of the Year
Components opens H
much the US sows before drought reducing prospects for a much- ubbard Feeds of Bismarck, North efficiently manage Cargill’s 34 production
backing these bullish speculative needed bumper harvest in Argentina. Early Dakota, is the 2010 Feed Mill employees. Safety, customer service and
scenarios with higher prices. forecasts of a possible 54/56m tonne crop – of the Year, according to the equipment improvement are among the
While the biggest exporter
of maize, the US is not the
only factor. Argentina’s crop
new subsidiary in
in line with last year’s record – have given way
to a much lower range of 42/50m recently.
Some timely rains might yet make all the
American Feed Industry Association and
Feedstuffs, the sponsors of the annual
contest. The runner-up is Cargill’s animal
qualities ranking Cargill near the top.
Cargill Animal Nutrition supplies feed
products throughout the region, with
Australia
is suffering drought and difference but as we go to press the possibility nutrition facility in Giddings, Texas. a 300-mile marketing radius in South
heatwaves that could trim has to be penciled in that Argentina’s domestic Central Texas and Mexico. The plant
output well below the most and export customers will see anything up The Peavy Company built the winning produces beef feed products, horse
recent USDA forecast of to 8m tonnes less in meal equivalent than plant in 1977. In 1983, it was purchased products, poultry products, deer and
23.5m tonnes, perhaps to budgeted for earlier. Soya prices have also by Northwestern Supply and renamed other game products. The product mix is
under 20m or about 5m less reacted to the dwindling supply in the USA Heartland, Inc Hubbard Feeds entered 70 percent bagged products and includes
than expected two months - even after last year’s near record 90.6m into a joint venture in 1993, before pellets, meal, minerals, textured feeds,
ago. The world market needed tonne harvest there. Traders blame a massive purchasing the plant in 2003. processed grains and pressed blocks.
that supply and may have to expansion in Chinese demand, accelerating in AFIA’s Safe Feed/Safe Food Certification The annual Feed Mill of the Year award
buy more from the US instead. the last few months as Argentina’s weather Program and the Hazard Analysis and recognizes overall excellence in feed
On the other hand, Brazil, problems raised the possibility of a smaller Critical Control Points system certify manufacturing operations. Increased
another leading expor ter, than expected global supply. At the last Hubbard Feeds. safety, quality, regulatory compliance,
has a good crop – probably count, China was expected to import 57m Randy Amelsberg has managed the plant operating efficiencies and overall industry
2m more than USDA’s tonnes of whole soyabeans from all sources for the last seven of his 30 years at this awareness of food safety are among the
forecast 51m tonnes – plus in 2010/11 against last year’s 50.3m and a location. Among the employees keeping criteria reviewed for each applicant.
comfortable stocks which it mere 28m just four years ago. Demanding the running at maximum efficiency, “The quality of this year’s candidates was
might be tempted to sell some restraint from soya suppliers, however, include seven production employees, quite impressive as was their dedication
abroad at these prices (bearing second largest supplier Brazil still expects a truck driver, t wo super visor y to quality control and safety standards,”
4
in mind too that Brazil’s own another mammoth crop, probably close to
B Braime, leading supplier employees, one plant superintendent, said Keith Epperson, vice president of
consumption is expanding – last year’sof elevator and conveyor should
record 69m tonnes, and a grain merchandiser and three clerical manufacturing and training for AFIA. He said
up 7m tonnes in the last four manage large exports has both soyabeans
components, of created employees. The mill had no lost time and this year’s winning mill stood out because
years alone). and a newUS soyabean prices have risen by
meal. operation especially for zero accidents since 2006. there is a “clear commitment from every
Traders are also anxiously about 12% since ourmarket. The about
the Australian last review and Hubbard Feeds manufactures employee to produce a safe, quality product
watching China where the state 40%new subsidiary, 4B Australia,
from last summer’s lows. European approximately 24,100 tons of feed, for the customers of Hubbard Mills.”
continues to auction off maize prices have in Brisbane, was officially
located had a bigger boost because of annually. The plant has a total of 103 Over 75 feed facilities competed for this
reserves to keep feed costs and incorporated on the US dollar. Australia, 4B Braime is aiming feed bins, with approximately
the weak euro versus1st December Other grain and year’s award. “The number of facilities
inflation under control. There 2010 and crops fully operational, to provide a first class technical total bushel storage. Feed
meal-bearing is now – about from groundnut 400,000 increased again this year,” said Epperson.
is widespread skepticism over and cottonseed meals – of Managing support and after sales serviceis tested twice a year and scales
under the leadership failed to grow their volume “I believe this is due in part to the fact
users. If price-rationing is taking place, then, it China’s own buoyant crop estimates and with supplies last year, putting most of the to its local customerare calibrated once a year.
Director Paul Dennis, former onus base, a that each facility that applies receives
is slowing rather than stopping demand growth feed consumption growing fast there too, the on soyabeans to meet expanding woirld which 4B feelThevital, produces 90 percent of pellets,
Product Development Manager service is plant important feedback in the way of bench-
(2009/10 saw world consumption expand by possibility that it will need to buy millions of demand (a lot Dunlop cotton/groundnut
at Fenner of the Conveyor particularly for its electronics with textured and meal comprising the marking information. Comparing their
30m tonnes). tonnes from the US this year remains a real one mealServices.
is consumed in country of origin).range.
The last 10 percent. The majority of feed is own mill to others in the industry gives
This year’s US maize plantings are expected for 2011. bulk, representing 78 percent of capacity,
2010/11 oilseed marketing season did at4B Australia’s mother company,
least managers a way to focus on the areas
by some private analysts to increase by about In Europe itself, last year’s smaller maize crop start4B Australia has been created oilseeds
with large carryover stocks of 4B Braime, celebrated its while bagged feed totals 22 percent. The where they may have scored low so they
5m acres, maybe more which, with perfect undershot demand by about 3.4m tonnes but – about 14m more than the year before. anniversary in 2008
owing to the importance of 120th largest volumes produced are for beef, can make improvements.”
weather, could deliver, say, 340/350m tonnes this has been offset by raising imports and These will only be drawncompany’s and has been a pioneer of the wild bird. Hubbard serves 94
the region in the down by about 5% dairy and Selection of the top plant starts with an
– enough to expand domestic and export cutting exports. Even so, European maize prices, growth plans. 4B Braime has material handling industry, of dealers and six percent of
by the end of the marketing year. However, percent online application process and concludes
demand by 25m to 30m tonnes without taking as measured on the Paris futures exchange, have any surpluses may be in keen demand introducing the first seamless
been serving customers in if the retailers. with personal visits to the top sites by
stocks lower still. However, there are wild been even firmer than those of wheat, reaching Argentine crop deteriorates further steel elevator bucketSafety in important to Hubbard Feeds.
the area for many years, and and/ back is an inspection team from AFIA and
cards. Maize is under fierce competition for three-year highs in mid-January. or the US fails to sow enough soyabeans With the world’s largesthas a safety committee, a written
4B components have become 1909. The mill Feedstuffs. Final selection is based on a
land from soyabeans which have risen just this an integral is also of many range of elevator and conveyor
spring. There par t some uncertainty safety program that includes self-inspection combined scoring of the application and
as sharply in value over the past few months
and require less fertilizer (costs of which are
MAIZE FACTORS TO WATCH about rapeseed output, which could components, 4B Braime’s compliance, and mandatory
processing facilities. have for OSHA
From elevator buckets and material handling division has safety training meetings.
been expanded for 2011/12 but has faced stiff employee
personal visit.
Additional details on the 2010 Feed Mill
rising). The extension of ethanol blending • US spring planted area & weather competition from expensive winter wheat. field in elevator bucket Feeds is also active in the
bolts through to complete led the Hubbard of the Year and the runner-up will be in
credits in the US and the highest crude oil • Competition from feed wheat, especially Forward futures prices suggest soyabeans and manufacture by
hazard monitoring systems design community, sponsoring and donating to a future issue of Feedstuffs. Visit www.
prices for two years have also firmed ethanol from Australia’s weather damaged crop several causes.
– and thus other oilseed – costs will supplying the highest of quality
for elevators and conveyors, ease feedstuffs.com to learn more.
prices and could stimulate greater use than • Will China grow enough maize to meet its such into latter 2011 but Elite components. 4B Braime’sanimal nutrition mill in Giddings,
somewhatas 4B’s Watchdogonly if a decent Cargill’s The winner of the 2009 contest was a
the markets have budgeted for. US livestock own demand – or have to import? system, 4B components are electronic division specializes in the runner-up of the 2010
world crop comes through. More should be Texas, is Southern States feed mill in Cleveland,
prices are also strong, supporting higher feed • How quickly will the global economy/world known on the outlook for soya,many level controls, electricFeed Mill of the Year contest. The mill
the preferred choice of rapeseed and sensors North Carolina. The runner-up mill in
costs and – especially if the US/global economy livestock feed demand recover? sunflower meal supplies by our next issue. safety control systems that won the award in 1991 and
equipment manufacturers, and previously last year’s contest was Cargill’s Value
does improve this year – possibly pointing to • How will US ethanol demand evolve? p l a n t e n g i n e e r s a n d prevent costly downtime and it was named runner-up in
2006, and Added Meats turkey production plant in
a greater expansion in feed use next season.
Some analysts think these factors could push
• Speculative activity in futures, as with wheat
above
OILMEAL FACTORS TO WATCH
contractors. 1989.
reduce the risks of explosions
With its range of components, in hazardous areas. Cargill’s Giddings mill is certified by both
Harrisonburg, VA.
maize prices up from the present $6/6.50 per • Argentine soyaacrop weather of
4B serves large range the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control More inforMation:
bushel towards $8 – a rise that would certainly
impact on corn, other feed grain and wheat
Oilmeal costs rise with soyabeans • USn d u s t r i intentions i(Apr/May)
i planting e s r a n g n g f r o m for More inforMation:
• Nor thern Hemisphere rapeseed Paul Dennis
agricultur al to industrial and
Points system and AFIA’s Safe Feed/Safe
Food Certification Program.
Leslie Malone
AFIA
values in the world at large, including Europe. The highest soyabean prices since early sunflower cropmining and heavy 4B Australia
through to outlooks Cargill Animal Nutrition Plant Manager 2101 Wilson Blvd, Suite 916, Arlington
However, markets must wait and see just how 2008 have followed news of a prolonged • Chinese demand
duty industries. Byron Sommerlatte, who has managed the
Email: pdennis@go4b.com VA 22201, USA
With its local presence in Website: www.go4b.com Giddings facility since 1988, taps his more Tel: +1 703 5240810
than 30 years of industry experience to Email: lmalone@afia.org
&
Grain feed millinG technoloGy January - february 2011 | 11
36 | January - february 2011 &
Grain feed millinG technoloGy Grain &feed millinG technoloGy January - february 2011 | 17
Belting Half Page FLT.indd 1 20/01/2011 13:18:54
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