2. News November - December 2010
COMMODITIES
GLOBAL
GRAIN & FEED MARKETS
Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews
world trading conditions which are impacting the full range
of commodities used in food and feed production. His
observations will influence your decision-making.
US crop setbacks revive bull market
NKS speed up transport operations with
Wheat bulls are also However, without the stock cushion
The quality factor RDS on-board weighing
T
being driven by events in the available to wheat consumers
HE PAST year looks likely to crops in the FSU, recently planted late and in some maize market where what next summer, the maize market
has kept prices of go down as an unlucky one areas under dry conditions. Concerns also persist was once expected to be may remain sensitive to upward
N
in terms of crop weather – about the adequacy of better quality milling wheat a record US or crop has been More until it has :
t h K illingholme commercial sale of goods to r e s p o n d e d q u i c k l y a n dpressures inforMationsome firm
North American for northern hemisphere supplies after this year’s wet harvest problems repeatedly S trevisede down,K S ) MID Class Y(b) and OIML effectively to any questionpointers to a significantly bigger
orag (N Sheila Diaz
grain producers at least. Barely had in Canada, Germany and, in the last few weeks, threatening r o v i d e o e - Class R51 & ahead, despite an or support issue.
p a much tighternthan expected yearR76 standards apparently looser (than world cropRDS the way. The interesting
on Technology Ltd
hard wheats fairly markets begun to start settling down Australia too. On the bright side, EU autumn stop storage and logistical and n d at N K S US) stock/usel ratio“The loader operators get on here is that forward maize futures
end-season balance – for US a world the i s c u r re n t y of about 15%. The anomaly Cirencester Rd,
after the past summer’s crop shocks wheat planting appears to have gone well with maize markets. This situation takes on added conjunc tion w it h well withUS , RDS systemactually Minchinhampton, Stroud,
solutions, including Customs- used in problem is that, outside of the the most are and showing a discount to current
strong in the past in the former Soviet Union, Canada adequate moisture on an expected larger area. The approved warehousing for a among of thesetsupposedly ‘surplus’ maize operation as we (the reverse United situation for
importance in a year when maize we ighbridge , o e nsure in such an stocks months GL6 9BH, of the Kingdom
and Europe than a fresh drought worry odds might also be on the side of a better growing other feed grainss– has lbeen expected to are held inreducing havereserves and so wheat). DoesTel: +44 1453 733300 markets
b u l k p r o d u c t i n c u d i n g accurate loading, China’s strategic here it certainly helps this suggest that the
month with Dark emerged to threaten recently-planted season here in 2011 after two years of weather the of truck s spend on our aim of achieving a quick
help fill gaps left by the absence of millionstime inaccessible to the global market. On top think the US Email: can come to the rescue
agricultural feed and grain. crop info@rdstec.com
US winter wheat crops for harvest in challenges. India also has a big wheat surplus from tonnes of Russian and Ukrainian feed wheat, of that, many analysts vehicle turn around.”next year? Website: www.rdstec.com
site, increasing accountability think China’s crop
Northern Spring 2011. a record crop, some of which it might want to Based mention tight world barley and to speed up othe
not to in North Lincolnshire, supplies a n d s t c k
There is still time for rains to improve this export at the best world prices seen for years. too. rEven m i n g h a m d oofkbigger maize operation.are
n e a I m the prospect c s , complete estimates
14% offered fob situation – but a shaky start for a much-needed The Indian government is torn between taking cropse r o u s p r o d u c Chinarand aTdecentg h considerably e
n u m in Argentina and t s a e h ro u u se o f t h
bumper crop from the world’s largest wheat advantage of the best world wheat prices seen for Ukrainian from across he telemetry link option
receivedharvest have been tovershadowed over-rated
Gulf as high as exporter is the last thing anxious consumers want years and a temptation to keep stockpiling staples w the , crop outcome t h e n in the Loadmaster,tNKS
by o r l dUS s t o r e d a n d which was all the a n d hat
to hear about. Fortunately, the offsetting factor we like wheat and rice to combat its own rising food more surprising after a yearthe supposedly the to phase
screened or blended to of are looking world’s
$376/tonne at one have highlighted in recent issues still applies: the price inflation. But while world wheat stocks are idealtgrowing conditions. Ironically, last year’s weighbridge
c u s o m e r ’s re q u i re m e n t s out t he second
US has a huge carryover stock of wheat to take likely to remain large when the next season starts weather-plagued harvest – and consequent a nlargesti m p l y
d s maize
stage, its most into the next season, for a second year running. in mid-2011, markets are already looking further send load data
long growing season – actually turned out producer and
US farmers are also thought to be planting a lot ahead, to the possible scenarios for 2011/12. If the highest US maize yields ever seen. The d i r e c t f r o m
consumer
expensive since more winter wheat this year which may help offset next year’s world crop again under-shoots targets, response of markets to this shock has been t h e become a
will l o a d e r
any yield penalty from poor crop establishment. stocks will clearly be much tighter by mid-2012 dramatic with the leading Chicago futures big the office
to importer
August 2008 and However, this hasn’t stopped speculative buyers, and less able to supplement supply for a third exchange soaring by up to 80% from its w this grainof h e r e a
egged on by a weakening dollar and constant talk year. This concern is already reflected in a recent summer lows recently, pushing up prices printed
in the not
Canadian Western of food price inflation, renewing their investment 12% premium on Chicago new crop (September ticket will be
across the global feed grain sector, including too distant
in rising wheat prices. As well as the US crop 2011) futures over the current delivery month. the European feed and even milling wheat automatically
future. More
Red Spring wheat situation, the wheat market still faces a highly Clearly US, FSU and European crops will have to markets. Possibly there is an element produced. encouragingly,
uncertain outlook for next year’s winter wheat demonstrate that they are up and running under of over-reaction to the US maize supply T underi present
his s due
prices also near reasonably normal conditions before being sent outprices do appear to forward the
equation as these high again. to go live later in
before the wheat market can begin be causing a sharp cutback in import demand, p r i c e s ther
Total capacity of the NKS site year and will fur o f
two-year highs. to relax over forward supplies. In especially from the big Asian feed consumers. maizeat io n al
is over 250,000ft² and around im prove o pe r versus
fact, wheat prices may not fully a million tonnes feed, ethanol, productivity.
However, total US of different food and other crops
settle down until mid-2011 when industrial demand, which accounts N KS have used RDS
product is turned around for 85% like soyabeans
the harvests start to come in. each year. To is showing up weighing systems for
of crop disposal,help speed no signs yet of and cot ton
In the meantime, weather will ‘price-rationing’ as processors push up prices years taseShaun
this oper ation, N KS have over 20 – h US
take on even more importance invested in two to compensate – so the t , w i l l p l a n t
of their products Loadmaster Dannat Warehouse
than usual and speculators will stock/use ratio a r d likelyi drop g historical e ra lot more
9 0 0 0 i o n b o will w e g h i n to M a n a g at NKS
be watching like hawks for any systems from – equalNor th four x p l a i n s , of We main
lows of under 8% RDS to just e weeks “ its h ave
problems in a major producing Eastern Ltd for use on their received nothing but
supply. Given the pre-eminence of the US in coarse grain
country, guaranteeing a swift export trade for this grain, the world maize for vice vest
t wo Volvo L120 F wheeled excellent ser har and
upward response from prices. markets will also be tightly balanced in the support 0 1 1 .
loaders. product i n 2 from
The Loadm a ster 9 0 0 0 i is RDS Nor t h E astern ,
trade -approved for the w h o h a v e a l w a y s
34 | november - december 2010 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy Grain
Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
feed millinG technoloGy november - december 2010 | 5
november - december 2010 | 35
4. COMMODITIES
higher in recent months along with renewed news is gloomy though. Second largest maize value in recent months, suggesting to some Others that livestock and poultry demand take US farmland away from soya. In effect, with better crops of rapeseed and/or
concerns about the strength of demand from exporter Argentina is expected to raise observers that it could gain up to 5m more there is simply growing much faster than soyabean prices have to rise, regardless of sunflowerseed next summer - under strong
the corn ethanol industry and, not least, output to 25m tonnes and could increase acres next spring, opening the way for a expected and a fast expanding Chinese their own supply and demand, simply to competition from lucrative cereal crops – to
a resurgence in speculative buying on the exports by 5m. Exports are also seen rising potential 355/360m tonne crop next summer crushing industry wants to benefit from defend their share of acreage. help keep frisky oilmeal prices in check. Like
futures markets caused by renewed, strong from Brazil, Serbia, South Africa and Ukraine. – even if this year’s rather disappointing yields good margins. Whatever, the real reasons Soya prices have also been driven the cereals, oilmeals will be very weather-
downward pressure on the US dollar. The Less encouragingly for other consumers, were repeated (far more if the high 2009 – probably a combination of the above - higher by a smaller than expected crop sensitive markets in the months ahead.
latter trend accelerated in November after some analysts still think estimates of China’s yields were achieved). That could feed higher US crop estimate Key factors influencing the oilmeal
the US government decided to print another crop at 168/169m tonnes are far too high and demand and still raise those low US ending from the USDA
markets in the months ahead will
$600bn to try to kick start its ailing economy, that record prices for corn on its domestic stocks by at least 50% during 2011/12. But it’s in November at
include:
stoking fresh fears – on US and global market are a sign that significant imports will all a long way off at this stage with a world 91.9m tonnes –
markets – that this would trigger hyper- be made in coming months with potential of weather – and soya pricing – possibilities still a record high Chinese demand – can it continue at
inflation. In predictable fashion, managed
funds and other speculators responded to
firming effect on world maize prices.
World import trade for maize has actually
in between.
The progress of US ethanol demand for
News November - December 2010 but at this stage record levels?
seen inadequate Latin American crop weather – will it
the latest influx of ‘cheap money’ by rushing not grown much this season, despite the corn, related to the rate of blending, legal to cover foreseen stay favourable in a normally drier ‘La Nina’
to invest in commodities – metals, coffee, shortages of Black Sea feed wheat as most challenges and the relative price of ethanol d o m e s t i c a n d year?
sugar and, not least, agricultural markets as of this season’s 23.6m tonnes increase in v convential fuel, all of which will affect export demand Estimates of EU winter sowings for
an inflation hedge, leading to huge swings world maize consumption is taking place producers/blenders profit margins and without taking rapeseed – a crop rebound would help, in
“ T h e To t a l B a g Co n t ro l no human intervention. More inforMation:
in countries producing consumption of maize. stocks down by the FSU too
System has proven to be highly “The robots provide a perfectly
it. The biggest increase Import demand for US maize has slackened about two million The relative Wilkinson
Paul value of maize and soyabeans
efficient and, coupled with the presented pallet every time and Business Development Manager
of all is in the US (+10m markedly in recent weeks with buyers traders have been rattled by the fact that tonnes. Even then, at some five tonnes, at US planting time next Apr/May and, no
installation of three Pacepacker have minimal moving parts, which Pacepacker Services Ltd
tonnes), over half of that turned off by these sky-high prices. Will Chinese demand has shown little sign of these will not be tight unless China keeps up less important, spring weather – rain-
palletiser robots, we have been reduces the room for error and Tel: +44 1371 811544
in the still expanding that continue, freeing up a little more end- slowing down even as soyabean prices its frenetic buying pace. Other importers, delayed maize +44 1371 811621 Fax: planting can often lead to
able to reduce our packing the likelihood of breakdowns.
ethanol industry. The season stocks? have reached their highest level in over it might be noted, are not expanding their higher soyabean paul.wilkinson Email: areas.
staff by 40 percent, relocating Subsequently I’Anson’s operator and
food versus fuel debate Latin American crop outcomes and planting two years. However, a third view is that soya demand much. The EU is seen shipping The level of @pacepackerservices.com in
speculative activity
them elsewhere within the maintenance intervention has been
simmers on in the US weather in the Northern Hemisphere. China is deliberately contracting for more in 600,000 more beans than last year with commodityWebsite: www.pacepacker.com to
Dennis Allison, markets in general, linked
operation,” adds Mr I’Anson. reduced by 90 percent,” he adds.
where the government The trajectory of the US dollar. Further USPacepacker Managing
soyabeans than it actually intends to much smaller gains spread across a number the dollar, global economic trends
energy agency recently weakness will spur more speculative demand Director
take delivery of, as insurance against any o f
An automated A s i a n
recommended a higher for commodities including grains and problems occurring with recently-sown a n d L a t i n
new Total Bag Control System solution
in day-to-day prices on both futures and ethanol blending rate for newer vehicles soyabeans – on both sides of the Atlantic. Latin American crops. Some think China American
we have been able to virtually Pacepacker, a robotics systems
physical markets. Naturally, any commodity although US food manufacturers and livestock 2989w could cancel some of these shipments if the countries.
eliminate sack waste and integrator who has installed
with a firm physical backdrop – and maize is producers are currently mounting a legal South Americans get normal weather into That said,
totally eliminate customer 400 palletising systems over
one of them – becomes a star attraction to challenge to this. There is also a question the New Year, as it has done in past years. the immediate
these ‘outside’ interests. over whether tax breaks should continue to Oilmeals – prices up with
complaints regarding product the past 15 years, now use the
Oilseed and meal markets have also been onus is now New
That firm backdrop for maize has tightened for ethanol blenders, enabling them to use
presentation,” says Mr I’Anson. latest FANUC robots as part
lifted by this year’s rather disappointing h e a v y on Simple pushbutton
further in the past two months as the US maize bio-fuel even when it is more expensive grains, China demand but no Pacepacker have overcome of their automated solution.
world oilseed crops which have resulted in South America
the problem of heat sealing or Installed at the I’Anson plant for digital results!
than petrol. To the shortage zero growth in supply for 2010/11 – a season t o prod u ce
stitching difficult to handle sacks is a FANUC M-410iB series
surprise of many in when global crush demand for oilseeds is another large
with a system which supports robot, which offers four axes RIDA®QUICK SCAN
the industry, soya Oilmeal prices have risen sharply since our still expected to rise by at least 17m tonnes. soya harvest
and guides the bag throughout and payloads ranging from
bio-diesel tax breaks last review, partly in response to strength in The good news is that the oilseed market in in the spring
the process so that a perfect 140 to 700kg, as well as a high
were not renewed cereal markets but mainly due to voracious total is still in ample supply in 2010/11 after of 2011. So far
seal is achieved every time, the performance R-2000iB series
when they expired demand from one outstanding importer. last season’s output exceeded crush by a the news from
Total Bag Control System. robot with a payload from 100
last year, leading to The top world soyameal consumer China well-above trend 50m tonnes. Although a this region is
The system’s motorised grip to 250kg.
a huge drop in usage has been buying up US soyabeans as if there lot of this has gone to direct food use in encouraging
arms move around the bag as it “A s a FAN UC str ategic
of soya for this were no tomorrow, putting the latter’s sales Asia, it has still added at least 16m tonnes w i t h l ar ge r
is released from the spout clamp, par t ner wit h a 15 ye ar
purpose. However, to all destinations far ahead of the pace to world carryover stocks which reached than expected
where a pair of fingers either relationship, P acepacker
most in the ethanol needed to meet seasonal forecasts. Some a hefty 72m tonnes at the start of the are a s being
stretch or reform the gussets brings unrivalled specialist
and grain industries traders even suggest this could leave the new season on September 1. Most of this sown and rains
of the bag, to close it and hold application experience, which
crop – usually expected to supply over half regard the renewal of the corn ethanol USA’s own crushers and meal users short carryover is soyabeans, but about 7.5m is coming just in
it in its formed state. These only a system integrator
the world’s maize exports – has shrunk blending subsidy at the end of 2010 as a before the next crop arrives in September rapeseed. Even with flat growth in total time to break
arms are then driven toward the can, to devise a solution
from an estimated 334m to just 319m foregone conclusion, despite its unpopularity 2011. oilseed supply, these mammoth stocks are drought s in
sealer, transferring the bag into a from an initial layout to one
tonnes, leaving the domestic market in a in these straitened economic times. USDA data shows this is the second not expected to dip appreciably in 2010/11. B r a z i l a n d
powered twin-belt feeder, making which includes purpose built
22.4m tonne deficit. US carry-out stocks (at Key factors influencing the maize season running that Chinese soya meal However, this this hasn’t stopped oilmeal Argentina.
it possible to handle even the most end-effectors and control
September 30 next year) will halve to a tight consumption will show growth approaching prices joining the renewed upturn in grain Europe, the
market in the months ahead will unstable products and thin flimsy programs,” explains Dennis
21m tonnes – about three weeks’ supply for 20% , accounting for a quarter of all world markets. In the past two months alone, former Soviet
include: bags with ease as the bag top is Allison, Pacepacker Managing R-Biopharm Rhône Ltd.
domestic/export use. This is the main factor demand. Some analysts think China may Chicago soya meal futures have increased U n i o n a n d Block 10 Todd Campus Phone: +44 (0) 141 945 2924
held at all times prior to sealing. Director.
in a tight world maize balance with global The price relationship between maize be stockpiling soyabeans along with other in value by almost a quarter, spurred on Canada may West of Scotland Science Park Fax: +44 (0) 141 945 2925
The consistency of product “The new Pacepacker robotic Acre Road, Glasgow info@r-biopharmrhone.com
ending stocks currently seen at about eight and soyabeans and its effect on next year’s commodities amid fears that record not only by Chinese demand but by fears also need Scotland G20 0XA www.r-biopharm.com
presentation that the system palletising solution provides
weeks supply next September. Not all the planted area. Maize has vastly increased its internal food price inflation will accelerate. that a surge in maize acres next spring may to come up
achieves eliminates the need accurate and reliable sack stacking
for operator supervision. on a pallet to within 0.1mm with
38 | november - december 2010 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy Grain &feed millinG technoloGy PREVIOUS PAGE NEXT PAGE november - december 2010 | 39
mod.indd 1 06/10/2010 08:50
5. A sure eye for top quality. Forget about time-consuming sampling and expensive
laboratory analyses. Buhler NIR systems constantly monitor the quality of the raw
materials and end products – throughout the production process. A change in
quality is sensed within seconds, and the problem corrected without delay. You
can look forward to optimal flour yields, uniform quality, and profitable production.
We’d be glad to show you some potential applications, ideally during a personal
consultation.
Bühler AG, Grain Milling, CH-9240 Uzwil, Switzerland, T +41 71 955 11 11, F +41 71 955 66 11
milling@buhlergroup.com, www.buhlergroup.com
MYRF/MYRB DA NIR
online measurement
and control units
Versatility. Monitors protein, mois-
ture, ash, and other ingredients in
grains, semolina, and flour.
Real-time monitoring. Introduces
corrective measures into the on-going
production process with no need to
wait for laboratory analyses.
Guaranteed product quality. Pre-
cisely dispenses glue and other in-
gredients for uniform product quality.
Speck detection. A digital camera
identifies and assesses specks.
The solution behind the solution.
6. LINKS
This digital Re-print is part of the November | December 2010 edition of Grain & Feed Milling Technology magazine.
Content from the magazine is available to view free-of-charge, both as a full online magazine on our website, and as
an archive of individual features on the docstoc website.
Please click here to view our other publications on www.docstoc.com.
November 2010 • See the full issue
• New dimension in
the production of
hygienised
feed meal
• Visit the GFMT website
• Low-cost
• Contact the GFMT Team
Near Infrared
Transmission
grain analysers
for farmers In this issue:
• ‘Profiling’ Flours
And Their Value
• Insect-
To End Users
resistant
packaging:
- The last line of
defense
•
•
Global grain &
feed markets
Company
• Subscribe to GFMT
profiles 2010/11
A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891
To purchase a paper copy of the magazine, or to subscribe to the paper edition please contact
our Circulation and Subscriptions Manager on the link adove.
INFORMATION FOR ADVERTISERS - CLICK HERE
Article reprints
All Grain & Feed Milling Tecchnology feature articles can be re-printed as a 4 or 8 page booklets (these have been used as point of sale materials, promotional materials for shows and exhibitions etc).
If you are interested in getting this article re-printed please contact the GFMT team for more information on - Tel: +44 1242 267707 - Email: jamest@gfmt.co.uk or visit www.gfmt.co.uk/reprints
www.gfmt.co.uk PREVIOUS PAGE