UNCCD 2nd Scientific Conference

1. DEVELOPMENT OF A FRAMEWORK FOR
COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF
ECOSYSTEM BASED CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION ACTIONS IN THE
CARPATHIAN REGION
Lambert Stijn1, Bogaert Sarah1, Adriaenssens
Véronique1, Lammerant Johan1, Interwies Eduard2,
Görlitz Stefan2, Sandor Szalai3
1ARCADIS Belgium NV, Gent, Belgium
2Intersus Sustainability Services, Berlin, Germany
3Szent Istvan University, Gödöllő, Hungary

2. CONTENT
• Location, geographical background
• The CarpathCC project
• Cost benefit analysis (CBA) framework
• Vulnerability analysis

3. LOCATION

4. RESEARCH AREA

5. CARPATHIANS
• Length about 1500 km, second longest in
Europe
• Highest peak is 2655 m
• Area is 190000 km2

6. Seasonal temperature changes, 1961-2010
Lakatos et al., 2012
UNCCD 2nd Scientific Conference, Bonn, 9-12 April 2013

7. Change of the seasonal precipitation sums
1961-2010 Lakatos et al., 2012
UNCCD 2nd Scientific Conference, Bonn, 9-12 April 2013

8. THE FRAMEWORK PROJECT (1/2)
• IN-DEPTH ASSESSMENTS OF
VULNERABILITY OF ECOSYSTEMS AND
ADAPTATION MEASURES IN THE
CARPATHIAN REGION
• SR1: Main impacts of the climate change on
the water resources and water related natural
disasters
• SR2: Vulnerability of the natural ecosystems
to climate change (forest, grasslands,
wetlands)

9. THE FRAMEWORK PROJECT (2/2)
• SR3: Impact of the climate change on
ecosystem production systems and
tourism
• SR4: Collect and evaluate adaptation
measures
• SR5: Stakeholder dialogues:
communication, meetings
• SR6: focal areas, where the SRs are
applied on integrated basis

10. CBA FRAMEWORK
1. ADAPTATION MEASURES AND
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
2. ECONOMIC VALUATION
3. INTERPRETATION AND REPORTING

11. ADAPTATION MEASURES AND
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
Changes New situation
Present
situation Ecosystems with
Climate adaptation measuress
Ecosystems without
Land use
Benefits adaptation measures
from the Change in the benefit
Territorial
ecosystem from ecosystem services
(abandonment)
services and the costs of the
adaptation measures

12. CLIMATE CHANGE
• Determined based on the A1B scenario
ECHAM5 REMO 5.7 model calculations
Temperature and precipitation changes for the period 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000

13. LAND USE CHANGE
EEA database, 1990-2000 to 2006-2000

14. ECONOMIC VALUATION
• Quantifying costs of adaptation measures
compared to the baseline option (preparatory,
investment, operating and maintenance
costs)
• Identifying human populations affected by
impacts
• Economic valuation of ecosystem service
changes
• Calculation of discounted costs and benefits
(select time scale and discount rate)
• Accounting for non-monetised impacts

15. CASE STUDY: CONCLUSION ON
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

16. INTERPRETATION AND REPORTING
• Sensitivity analysis
• Reporting

17. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Füssel and Klein)
Adaptation measures

18. IMPACTS ON HABITAT DISTRIBUTION
Vulnerability assessment by habitat tíypes
• Change in species composition
• Increased spread of alien species
• Reduced productivity
• Change in habitat distribution

19. QUALITATIVE DESCRIPTION OF
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

20. STAKEHOLDER DIALOGUE
• Meetings
• Use of fact sheets
– Threats
– Ecosystem service effects

21. ADAPTATION MEASURES
• Long list: about 150 measures collected
• Short list: about 20 measures (umbrella
measures)
• Final outcome will be 2-3 tailored
adaptation measures

22. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
• Author thanks to European Comission, for
CarpathCC, which is supported by the EU
DG ENV Contract no
ENV.D.1/FRA/2011/0006
UNCCD 2nd Scientific

23. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!