The Climate Crisis

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The Climate Crisis

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Oceans are getting acidic ,[object Object],Plankton Korallenriffe

CO 2 is a Greenhouse Gas “ Climate Sensitivity” Arrhenius 1896 (4-6 ºC ) 3 ± 1 ºC Human-caused forcing until now should have caused 0,7 – 0,9 ºC warming

Global Temperature Global warming predicted (Sawyer, Nature 1972 , Broecker, Science 1975 )

Global Temperature in April 2010 1880-1920

Solar activit y We’re in the longest and deepest minimum of solar activity since at least 30 years.

The next 100 years A2 B1 A1FI High Emissions Lower Emissions

Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year 0 2 4 6 8 10 Ice Area (Sept. minimum), millions of km 2 Observations IPCC models Model range 2009?

Sea Level Rise Tide Gauges Gauges: Church & White Satellite: Cazenave et al. Sizewell B nuclear power station, Great Britain 20 cm rise since 1880

Melting corresponds to 7 m global sea level rise! Greenland

Recent Sea Level Estimates Delta Comm. WBGU Data Data: Church and White (2006) Scenarios 2100: 50 – 140 cm (Rahmstorf 2007) 55 – 110 cm (“high end”, Delta Commission 2008) Scenarios 2200: 150 – 350 cm (“high end”, Delta Commission 2008) Scenarios 2300: 250 – 510 cm (German Advisory Council on Global Change, WBGU, 2006) Rahmstorf

Impacts of sea level rise Han, main island of Carteret-Atoll Tuvalu Birma, Typhoon Nargis (2008)

The 2 ºC Guardrail A2 B1 A1FI 2 ºC limit

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Meinshausen et al 2009

Thank you for listening! Foto: S. Rahmstorf

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The year 2014 tied with 2010 as the warmest year on record for the last century. The melting of Greenland, mountain glaciers, and thermal expansion is raising sea levels four times faster than in 1900. Sea level rises of 2 to 6 feet are predicted by the end of the century. Flood highs from hurricanes Sandy and Katrina were ~ 10 feet. The article “Treading Water” in the February 2015 "National Geographic" tells how Dutch Docklands LLC sees profit not loss from rising sea levels. They are building floating homes in Miami, FL. A floating classroom could assure ASPEC’s long-term future. It would provide a place to meet in the event of flooding by the 10-foot ocean surges that accompany hurricanes. Dr. Carr describes how increasing greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, trap the radiation that is warming our planet. Advances in non-carbon emitting energy sources can reduce global warming. Solar PV panels are now generating electricity at $0.07/kWhr, less than the national utility average of $0.12kWhr. Rising sea levels are a better measure of global warming than atmospheric temperature, as 90% of our planet’s heat content is in our oceans. You can learn more at www.RiskyBusiness.org.

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The physical chemistry of the atmosphere, and the relation between Greenhouse gas concentration and temperature, are well understood and have been since the 19th century, although our understanding of the role of water vapour is far from perfect. A large part of the global warming of the Earth's surface takes place in the ocean, which covers 70% of the globe and is the main source of water vapour. Reliable measurements of sea surface temperature from ships started in 1853 and are now continued with drifting buoys that can profile down to 1000 m. Although these observations are sparse compared with the size of the ocean, they nevertheless all reveal a consistent rise in ocean temperature that translates into a slow rise in sea level due to thermal expansion. SAMS is one of an international group of laboratories surrounding the north Atlantic that monitor the global ocean circulation. We have seen a rapid rise in temperature west of Scotland that can be attributed in part to global warming, but also to changes in circulation patterns of the Atlantic. Modern tools, such as remotely operated marine gliders that can dive to 1000 m, are changing the way we make observations and will enable us to improve our understanding of the way in which the ocean circulation behaves over long periods of time. [Presentation at the UHI Climate Change Summit 2010 by Toby Sherwin, Toby Sherwin, Professor of Oceanography, Scottish Association of Marine Science (SAMS) UHI]

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The Climate Crisis

1. The Climate Crisis Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Foto: S. Rahmstorf

2. Rise of CO 2 concentration

4. CO 2 is a Greenhouse Gas “ Climate Sensitivity” Arrhenius 1896 (4-6 ºC ) 3 ± 1 ºC Human-caused forcing until now should have caused 0,7 – 0,9 ºC warming

5. Global Temperature Global warming predicted (Sawyer, Nature 1972 , Broecker, Science 1975 )

6. Global Temperature in April 2010 1880-1920

7. Solar activit y We’re in the longest and deepest minimum of solar activity since at least 30 years.

8. The next 100 years A2 B1 A1FI High Emissions Lower Emissions

10. 1979

11. 2007

12. Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year 0 2 4 6 8 10 Ice Area (Sept. minimum), millions of km 2 Observations IPCC models Model range 2009?

13. M u e l l e r G l a c i e r

14. Sea Level Rise Tide Gauges Gauges: Church & White Satellite: Cazenave et al. Sizewell B nuclear power station, Great Britain 20 cm rise since 1880

15. Rising Faster than Expected

16. Melting corresponds to 7 m global sea level rise! Greenland

17. Recent Sea Level Estimates Delta Comm. WBGU Data Data: Church and White (2006) Scenarios 2100: 50 – 140 cm (Rahmstorf 2007) 55 – 110 cm (“high end”, Delta Commission 2008) Scenarios 2200: 150 – 350 cm (“high end”, Delta Commission 2008) Scenarios 2300: 250 – 510 cm (German Advisory Council on Global Change, WBGU, 2006) Rahmstorf

18. Impacts of sea level rise Han, main island of Carteret-Atoll Tuvalu Birma, Typhoon Nargis (2008)

19. The 2 ºC Guardrail A2 B1 A1FI 2 ºC limit

20.

21. Thank you for listening! Foto: S. Rahmstorf

Notas del editor

Abbildung 4.3-1 Aragonitsättigung und gegenwärtige Riffstandorte von Warmwasserkorallen (blaue Punkte). (a) vorindustrielle Werte (ca. 1870, atmosphärische CO2-Konzentration 280 ppm), (b) Gegenwart (ca. 2005, 375 ppm CO2), (c) Zukunft (ca. 2065, 517 ppm CO2). Der Grad der Aragonitsättigung ( Ù ) bezeichnet das relative Verhältnis zwischen dem Produkt der Konzentrationen von Kalzium- und Karbonationen und dem Löslichkeitsprodukt für Aragonit. Standorte mit einer Aragonitsättigung unterhalb von 3,5 sind nur noch bedingt für riffbildende Warmwasserkorallen geeignet (marginal), unterhalb von 3 sind sie ungeeignet. Quelle: Steffen et al., 2004
Nur ein Jahr war in den letzten 130 Jahren w ärmer als 2009 In der S üdhalbkugel war 2009 das wärmste Jahr!
Moberg mit Sedimenten für den langfristigen Trend Oerlemans: Gletscher Aus den Punkten 1-3 folgt fast zwangsl ä ufig diese weitere Erw ä rmung
Gestrichelt: vor 100 Jahren. Zu sehen aus Moränen und direkter Beobachtung
Rise relative to 1990 level.
Tuvalu: 11,000 Einwohner. Carteret: siehe http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/0,1518,560801,00.html Insel Han, 1500 Einwohner, in 2008 in zwei Teile gebrochen. Geh ört zu PNG. “Umsiedlung nach Bougainville unvermeidlich.”
Moberg mit Sedimenten für den langfristigen Trend Oerlemans: Gletscher Aus den Punkten 1-3 folgt fast zwangsl ä ufig diese weitere Erw ä rmung

The Climate Crisis

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