Worldwatch's goal is to build an energy system that is socially, economically and environmentally sustainable. Through our Sustainable Energy Roadmaps, we provide
supporting research; help government define goals, design strategy; and advise on implementation.
3. Goal
•An energy system that is socially, economically and environmentally sustainable
Our role
•Provide the supporting research
•Help government define goals, design strategy
•Advise on implementation
4. Theory of change
•Overall strategy and individual recommendations only successful if they get buy-in from key drivers of change
–Decision-makers in policy, business (entrepreneurs, project developer) and finance (investors, banks, international funders)
–Media, NGOs and civil society as important communicators and pressure groups
•Necessitates a paradigm shift
•Requires that we demonstrate that
–the outcome is in the clear interest of the people; allow for greater prosperity, security, integrity, happiness
–the pathway is technically, socially, economically, politically and financially feasible
5. Sustainable Energy Roadmaps
Policy Recommendations Vision & Long-Term Goals Concrete Policy Mechanisms Governance & Administrative Efficiency
Technical Assessment
Energy Efficiency Potential
Renewable Energy Potential
Grid Solutions
Finance & Policy Assessment Gap Analysis International Support & Cooperation Domestic Reform and Capacity Building
Socio- Economic Analysis
Levelized Cost of Energy +
Energy Scenarios
Macroeconomic Effects
6. Financial investment barriers and enablers
Barriers
Finance Barriers
Cost of capital
Unavailability of public financing
Unavailability of private loans
Unmanageability of small projects for development banks and international funders
High upfront capital costs
Cost Barriers
Higher Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)
Unaccounted external benefits and costs
Market and currency fluctuations
Policy
Misplaced incentives
Policy and regulatory uncertainty and complication
Enablers
National renewable energy targets
Vision
Regulatory policies (Feed-in tariff, RPS, etc.)
Concrete Policies
Fiscal incentives (tax incentives, subsidies, grants)
Public financing (public investment, loans, grants)
Energy market regulations
Trade agreements
Streamlining processes (planning, permitting)
Gov. & Admin.
Socio-economic Assessments
Knowledge Barriers
Knowledge gap
Worldwatch provides the information that important decision-makers at national, sub-national, and international levels often lack in terms of technical knowledge
Deficient dissemination of information
Worldwatch disseminates gathered knowledge to stakeholders, enabling them more effectively and efficiently develop renewable energy projects
Capacity building
Technical assessments can be used to more smartly develop the capacity needed to implement renewable energy projects
International knowledge sharing
Results of technical assessments are available to a wide range of international stakeholders in the public and private sectors
Technical Assessments
Socio-economic Impacts of RE
Energy Priorities
Security
Economic Priorities
Industry development
Jobs
Social Development
Energy access
Health
Education
Redistribution/Equality
Environmental Integrity
Climate change
Natural resources
Barriers
Cost Barriers
Unaccounted external benefits and costs
Higher Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)
Political
Political challenges
Public Acceptance
Public opposition
Knowledge Barriers
Knowledge gap
Capacity development
REMOVE
Barriers
Systemic Vision
Energy sector and industry vision
Policy and Regulatory
Misplaced incentives, policy/regulatory uncertainty
Cost
High LCOE, unaccounted costs, market and currency fluctuations
Finance
Cost of capital, unavailability of financing, unmanageability for banks, upfront costs
Political
Politicization of key issues, short-term priorities
Entrenched Interest
Monopoly/vertical integration, anti-RE lobby
Infrastructure
Unsuitability of infrastructure, high cost of development, intermittency/storage
Innovation
Patent protection, lack of R&D
Public Acceptance
NIMBY, cost of RE to consumers
Knowledge
Knowledge gap, capacity building, deficient and uncoordinated dissemination of information
Trade
Tariffs, trade disputes
Enablers
Long-term Vision
Policies (policy toolkit)
RE support policies
Climate Policies
Energy Market Regulation
Int’l. Cooperation
Effective Governance and Administration
Policy Analysis and Recommendations
Financial Analysis and Recommendations
7. Sustainable Energy Roadmaps
Technical Assessment
Energy Efficiency Potential
Renewable Energy Potential
Grid Solutions
8. Grid Assessments: DR
• One of the highest rates of distribution losses in the world
• Electricity instability costs the country $1 billion every year (3.4% GDP)
• Population resorts to inefficient small-scale fossil fuel-based units
10. The Need for Integrated Planning
Seasonal Variation
Daily (Diurnal) Variation
11. •Great similarities & divergences among countries
•All Caribbean countries can be powered 100% carbon-free
•Enormous wind, solar, biomass, hydro potentials
•Enormous potential for energy efficiency
•Need to build and/or renovate grid
Selected Highlights Technical Assessments
12. Sustainable Energy Roadmaps
Socio-Economic Analysis
Levelized Cost of Energy +
Energy Scenarios
Macroeconomic Effects
13. The Need for LCOE+ Modeling societal costs and benefits
LCOE+ Jamaica
•Energy pricing does not reflect the true costs of different generation options
•LCOE+ modeling adds societal costs and benefits on top of generation costs to help governments make more informed choices in the energy sector
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
USc/kWh
Generation
Pollution
Climate Change
17. Generation Scenarios based on Reference Case Demand Growth
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
GWh
Petroleum
NG
Petcoke
Renewables
Business As Usual
30% Renewable Energy
50% Renewable Energy
20% Renewable Energy
18. Cumulative Costs & Savings for Electricity Generation Scenarios: 2012-2030
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Total Investment Required to
Meet Annual Demand
Total Cost of Electricity Generation
Total Savings Over Business As
Usual
USD (In Millions)
Business As Usual
20% Renewable Energy
30% Renewable Energy
50% Renewable Energy
19. Job Creation Case Study: Direct Jobs in the Solar PV Value Chain
Processing of raw materials
Engineers
Technicians
Manufacture of cells and modules
Engineers
Technicians
Installation and plant construction
Project development analysis
Wholesalers
Solar PV system designers and installers
Construction workers
Meteorologists
Operation and maintenance
Technicians
Maintenance staff
Decommissioning
Construction workers
Materials recyclers
20. Jobs Creation Estimates per MW for Various Energy Sources over Lifetime of Facilities
Energy technology
Construction, installation, and manufacturing jobs
Operations & maintenance and fuel processing jobs
Total jobs
Solar PV
0.29 – 1.48
0.12 – 1.00
0.41 – 2.48
Geothermal
0.10 – 0.44
1.67 – 1.79
1.77 – 2.23
Biomass
0.11 – 0.21
1.21 – 1.53
1.32 – 1.74
Solar Thermal
0.18 – 0.41
0.22 – 1.00
0.40 – 1.41
Small Hydro
0.14
1.14
1.28
Nuclear
0.38
0.70
1.08
Wind
0.10 – 0.44
0.14 – 0.40
0.24 – 0.84
Coal
0.21
0.59
0.80
Natural Gas
0.03
0.77
0.80
21. CO2e Emissions
0
1E+09
2E+09
3E+09
4E+09
5E+09
6E+09
7E+09
8E+09
9E+09
1E+10
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
kg
Business As Usual
20% Renewable Energy
30% Renewable Energy
50% Renewable Energy
22. •Islands pay astronomical price for fossil fuel dependency
•Petroleum high share of electricity produced (Jamaica 2009 : 96%)
•All imported (J: Oil import US$2.2 bn/2011, 14.9% of GDP; CARICOM: 23%)
•Sustainable energy solutions lead to major cost savings & social benefits
Selected Highlights Socio-economic Assessments
23. Sustainable Energy Roadmaps
Finance & Policy Assessment Gap Analysis International Support & Cooperation Domestic Reform and Capacity Building
24. Sustainable Energy Finance
•Gap analysis
–Lack of finance
–Access to finance, cost of finance etc.
•International sources and cooperation
–International climate funds; CDM
–Multi-lateral development banks
–Bilateral aid
•Domestic reform and capacity building
–Business and banking sector
25. Financial Barriers and Enablers
Barriers
Finance Barriers
Cost of capital
Unavailability of public financing
Unavailability of private loans
Unmanageability of small projects for development banks and international funders
High upfront capital costs
Cost Barriers
Higher Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)
Unaccounted external benefits and costs
Market and currency fluctuations
Policy
Misplaced incentives
Policy and regulatory uncertainty and complication
Enablers
National renewable energy targets
Vision
Regulatory policies (Feed-in tariff, RPS, etc.)
Concrete Policies
Fiscal incentives (tax incentives, subsidies, grants)
Public financing (public investment, loans, grants)
Energy market regulations
Trade agreements
Streamlining processes (planning, permitting)
Gov. & Admin.
28. Administrative Procedure to Obtain a RE Concession in the Dominican Republic
Application for a provisional concession at CNE
CNE publishes the concession request in a national newspaper
CNE publishes the granting of the provisional concession
Application to Electricity Supervision Board (SIE)
CNE includes the applicant in the Special Regime Production Facilities Register
Granting of provisional concession
Application for a permanent concession
Environmental Impact Study (SEMARENA)
Resource and production analysis by a company authorized by CNE
Grid study
CDEEE guarantee of PPA
Guarantee
CNE receives the reports of the SIE and SEMARENA
Definitive concession
29. •Long-term vision often exists, can be more ambitious
•Policies & measures exist but often do not work to their full potential; additional policies needed
•Governance & administration need to be strengthened; capacity-building, mainstreaming, simplification
Selected Highlights Policy Assessments