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Islamic Banking Principles Vs. Federal Reserve Policy
Currently in the US, the Federal Reserve is attempting to formulate a palpable
progression in the economy by changing its current strategy on monetary policy. For months
now, most global markets have been waiting anxiously for the adoption of minimally higher
interest rates. There are cynics and proponents for each side, and both have due cause. Most
cases are caused by choosing a side on the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full
employment. This debate isn’t new by any means. William Greider, author of Secrets of the
Temple, picks apart John Maynard Keynes’ philosophy on the issue. “Economies operating
efficiently at full employment would, in time, produce such an abundant supply of capital that
the price for it would fall to very low levels-that is, very low interest rates.” (Greider, 174) We
see this trend right now. But which came first, the low interest rates dictated by the Fed, or full
employment? Also, what happens if there are no interest rates, would economies without interest
rates automatically be at full employment? This is the case in Islamic regions as the Quran
forbids the collecting or issuing of interest or ribā. In comparison, usury often has the
connotation of interest in excessive amounts, but in strictly Islamic terms, usury indicates any
amount of interest, no matter how small. The concentration of this paper will navigate through
the growth of the US and Saudi Arabia over the past 30 years. It should be seen if a Keynesian
perspective on interest rates that is present in productive Islamic countries is able to keep pace
with the United States and their Federal Reserve’s implemented monetary policy. Also to be
included is a synopsis of Islamic banking and a notation of the major differences, on top of
interest rates, that stand out between them.
In the US, there are times when critics are in a deadlock when it comes to choosing a dual
mandate side. Raising interest rates should slowly pick up the inflation rate from its near

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stagnant rate, which isn’t beneficial and negatively impacts real wage growth. Supposedly
keeping interest rates the same will not cause markets to go haywire, but in the past few months
it has been seen that major volatility occurs without implementation of new monetary policy.
Interest itself creates a lucrative market for most parties involved.
At this point in time, if interest rates were raised, savers would see a greater potential of
their capital without the risk of investment. With inflation being so low, any increase in interest
rates would be a real gain that isn’t eroded immediately by inflation. Citizens who are employed
would greatly enjoy this benefit as they can finally have a small grasp on the idea that their
money isn’t going to disappear as it did in the recent financial crisis. Cleveland Fed president,
Loretta J. Mester notes this by recently stating that price stability “allows households and
businesses to focus on productive activities rather than on ways to protect the purchasing power
of their money and to make long-term plans and commitments without having to deal with
uncertainty about the value of their money.” (Mester) If price stability and higher interest rates
coincide, people would have the option to save rather than take the risk in investments. What
about in places like Saudi Arabia? What investment vehicles do households and businesses there
have to increase their wealth outside of interest based accrual?
First let’s look at the objectives of Islamic banking. A research paper by Ashfaq Ahmad
et al. published in the African Journal of Business Management gives the principles of Islamic
banking. “The basic aim of Islamic banking is to perform interest-free activities based on
principles of Sharia’h and carry out only Halaal (permissible) transactions.” ( Ahmad et al.)
From this we can see that Islamic banks are modeled around the guidelines set by a higher
power, unlike the rest of the world who get their guidelines from men. Also there is a differing
view when it comes to making money. The Institute of Islamic Banking and Insurance puts

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investments in two different categories, debt financing, the western way, and PLS, the Islamic
way. So in the western based system, capital seekers come to a bank asking for a loan. The loan
is paid out with interest, with the interest being used to cover the spread and compensate the
savers that have money in the bank. If the investment goes sour, the capital seeker is left solely
on his or her own to repay the money and the interest agreed to. This is a risk that may deter
entrepreneurs from getting an idea off the ground. With the PLS system, profit-loss sharing,
investors in Islamic countries put their money into a bank. Once a person or business comes
along, negotiations are drawn up and proportions of profits and losses are drawn up before the
transaction. If it is a successful investment, the profits are used to pay the investors who placed
their money in the bank, not interest. Essentially, the capital seeker in this situation has no
liability to pay back the bank for a failed venture, however it is deemed okay. “As long as the
owner of money is willing to become a shareholder in the enterprise and expose his money to the
risk of loss, he is entitled to receive a just proportion of the profits and not merely a merely
nominal share based on the prevailing interest rate.” (IIBI) In Islamic banking, investors are
compensated well do to their risk more than just interest. Here is a stark differentiation between
the two systems.
Savers in western systems have their will to save or invest dictated by the Federal
Reserve. If interest rates are high, less people are spending and they assume their money will go
further in the future if he or she saves now. But with interest rates being high businesses are less
likely to go in search for loans to improve or expand their business. Within a reasonable amount
of time, unemployment will pick up because business are looking to cut to save money, and
interest rates will have to be lowered to make the job market more accommodative. With the
PLS model, there is no saving; only investing. Every time money is put in to the Islamic banking

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system, it has a risk of loss, but the risk of profit payouts, tend to outweigh the consequences of
the loss. Western savers are saving for their own benefit and expose themselves to virtually no
risk, while Islamic savers are ultimately investors and share their wealth with people looking to
make entrepreneurial strides.
These principles also apply to personal loans for houses, cars, and tangibles that may
need financing. The lenders in these situations play a similar rule but tend to be more lenient. In
A Guide to Contemporary Islamic Banking and Finance, an example is given if a lender loans
$10 over 10 years. The question is raised about the time value of that money lost. This loan
contract is considered charity as the charitable contribution includes the time value of money.
The following quote best explains this Islamic banking idealogy:
“If that time value is higher due to inflation, then the lender has given a larger charity.
Notice that if the debtor cannot pay the creditor must give him extensions until he is able.
In fact the debtor may never be able to pay back, in which case the entire lent sum is
considered charity.” (El-Gamal 32-33)
This is a stark contrast compared to western banking. If payments are late, they are most
definitely not forgiven. The debtor is pursued relentlessly until payment is made or the goods
are forfeited. Of many things western banks have been called, charitable is not a term often
thrown around. Western banks appear to be chasing the God Almighty interest rates.
Effectively, “If money was not God, it appeared to be the next best thing.” (Greider 234)
Historically US banks have been at fault for making speculative loans with major
repercussions such as the lending upward of a billion dollars to the Hunt brothers of Texas to
corner the silver market in the early 1980s. The bubble was caused by the blindness of banks
thinking the price of silver would keep ever increasing and push the banks’ investments sky high.

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When the Hunt brothers started their binge effort, silver was around $10 an ounce. In six
months, they had watched as the price climbed up to $52 mainly influenced by high inflation and
their global purchases. William Greider points out those banks were eager to give them money
at first as they were already wealthy Texas oil tycoons with millions already. In all they held
129 million ounces of silver, most of it on margin. (Greider 144) Ultimately the price crashed
hard, plummeting the whole way back down to $10. Engelhard, still a major supplier of silver
today, is to whom the Hunt brothers and vested banks were indebted. When the time came for
Engelhard to collect, they did not act charitably and write off hundreds of millions of dollars, and
who would blame them? In this instance the Federal Reserve wielded its power and intervened
to save some of the major banks that would have gone under without such intervention.
Islamic financing would have never allowed such a financial injustice. While speculative
options are available for investment like stocks, trying to corner the silver market would have
been considered gambling. On top of this, “if a business’s primary activity is deemed
unproductive (e.g. a casino, or a beer brewery), then Muslims will not be permitted to own shares
in that company since owning such shares constitutes an implicit participation in the business’s
activity.” (El-Gamal 35) So nowhere in the Islamic realm would such speculative investments
be made and they would not have had deal with the near collapse of their major banks. Western
banks have also drawn the attention of other religious affiliates. After the 2009 financial crash,
the Vatican voiced their opinion in their official newspaper Osservatore Romano that “ethical
principles on which Islamic finance is based may bring banks closer to their clients and to the
true spirit which should mark every financial service.” (qtd in Totaro) Inherently, capitalism
really isn’t based on a close relationship between banks and clients. Free markets aren’t about

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building relationships. It’s about providing the best product at the most efficient price which in
turn is driven by many economic principles and theories, not relationships.
Like the Fed has its dual mandate, the Islamic Monetary Regime has a fourfold plan that
includes an interest free economy, low to moderate inflation, stable exchange rates, and
increased savings. Having already discussed the interest free topic, the issue with inflation is the
next topic. Typically with the Federal Reserve’s policy, they like to confine inflation to between
the 10 year Treasury note interest rate and the 3 month Treasury note interest rate. They do this
by dictating interest rates and reserve requirements to either increase or decrease the supply of
money dependent on the circumstance. So how would an Islamic state regulate inflation without
the interest rates to dictate? Firstly, research did by Salman Shaikh notes the four factors that
impact inflation “are interest rates, depreciation of money, indirect taxes and price distortions
due to imperfect markets.” (Shaikh) Therefore in an Islamic economy they only have to worry
about 3 factors. Money creation is how these banks limit inflation. Rather than using interest
rates on loans, “money supply expansion will be dependent upon productive loans disbursed.”
(Shaikh) However, what if in an extended time period, loans that were given turn sour, or what
if they are all massively successful? Would Islamic banks give loans to people that they expect
to fail to make up for the excess money that successful loans produce to keep inflation tame? It
seems very unlikely for that to be the situation. Cycles occur and there are good years and bad
years. But without effective monetary policy, these swings of inflation and deflation can become
habitual.
For my research I looked at the GDP of Saudi Arabia and compared it to the US’s over
the time from 1970 to 2013. Rather than convert currencies and find a baseline dollar value, I
chose to look at the percentage change in GDP from the previous year. Tracking it over this

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period yielded evidence that Saudi Arabia suffers much greater volatility compared to the US.
The graphs below comprised of data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve paints this well. The
graph on the left indicates a spike of 211 percent increase in Saudi Arabia’s GDP from1973 to
1974, thus skewing the other figures relative to it. The graph on the right gives a more
meaningful representation of the data. The GDP of the US is indicated by the red line which
appears to have very little variation. Saudi Arabia is no stranger to having negative GDP growth
throughout this time period, while the US only experienced it once for less than a year.
It only lasted through the fourth quarter of 2008
and the first two quarters of 2009. I would like to believe the use of the Federal Funds rate aided
in this. Shown directly left is a graph that matches the same time frame as the GDP graph shown
above it. What it displays is the change in the Federal Funds Rate set by the Fed. Depending on
the situation, increases or decreases in the rate can be seen in the area around the grey bars. The
grey bars in the charts also indicate recessions in the US which often corresponds with down
turns in Saudi Arabia’s GDP. With similar monetary policy less the use of interest rates,
speculation would lead to the notion that interest rates are formidable when intervention is
needed in the economy. Throughout the times shown, the US was the economic global
powerhouse and many economies depended on our imports and exports and overall economic

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health. It’s shown that the US is almost constant in percentage change compared to Saudi
Arabia’s volatility.
On top of being an interest free economies, most counties on the oil rich Arabian
Peninsula, do not impose individual income taxes of any sort or charge sales tax. Hellen Ziegler
and Associates is a Canadian company that recruits health care professionals to work in Saudi
Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. They offer insight on the tax scales that their employees would be
subject to. Anyone making less than $99,400 is not subject to Saudi taxes. Business’ however
that are linked to the production of hydrocarbons are taxed 85% while other sectors are between
20-30%. (Ziegler) To this effect someone making $40,000 less the cost of living has more
disposable income than someone in the US. If inflation were to spike in the US at any given
time, a person or family with comparable income would feel a much greater strain than someone
in Saudi Arabia would. Not having interest rates seemed like a big issue when it came to
maintaining a stable economy, but if forgoing an average personal income tax of 25% is at stake,
I don’t think the citizens are too distraught. If anything they are being honored for their
commitment to not participate in riba based transactions in a sense. Currently in the US interest
rates and inflation are quite low, and in principle our money is going further but the tax rate is
still present. Currently to me, Saudi Arabia sounds more appealing than the recovering economy
of the US and our slow rising wages. Granted there are a lot of non-economic factors that would
lead to the deterrent of job seekers to go to the area, but still no income tax.
Maybe their tax rate leads to their 5% unemployment rate. Trading Economics has their
current unemployment rate at 5.7% and tracking the figure back until 2001, peaked at 6.3% in
the end of 2006. Looking back to the early graph depicting GDP growth, even in the time when
their GDP shrank nearly 20% in 2009, unemployment was relatively unscathed compared to the

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US’s. Nearly the opposite of what one would expect to happen. The US’s GDP shrank for 3
quarters and an overall decrease of just 2% led to a drastic increase in unemployment, nearly
eclipsing the 10% mark over the same time. This could be tied to the Saudi Arabian economy
being a one trick pony with their cash cow of oil. The services and industries provided in the US
were marginalized during the most recent financial crisis, but not so for Saudi Arabia. There
were no massive layoffs in the oil industry because they pretty much supply a near necessity to
the world. Quandl, an international database, notes that 24.7% of the Saudi population is
involved the industry sector. I would have assumed to find unemployment concerns in the 70%
that work in the service industries, but there seemed to be none at the time of the crisis or even
now. (Quandl)
Granted a 2% decrease of GDP in the US is substantially large. The 2% that the US
dropped equated to half a trillion dollars, which is equal to Saudi Arabia’s GDP of 500 billion
US dollars for that time. This does make the large increase in unemployment a little easier to
realize because 2% is a large figure to the US. Often statistics like such are over looked for that
reason, but when your country has the largest GDP, small variances can have large impacts like
those realized in the recession. But what the Fed is good at as of late is regulating inflation. No
matter the increase or decrease of GDP, inflation has remained steady. That much cannot be said
for Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s inflation rates fluctuate and reach much greater magnitudes
than that seen in the US. The following graphs depict the historical percent changes in GDP and
inflation rates through the past forty odd years and show the differences seen between the US
and Saudi Arabia.

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The differences are substantial. The graph on the left depicts US statistics and the right is Saudi
Arabia. For the US the bounds are shown to have a high inflation of about 15 percent around
1980 and high GDP growth around the same time of 13 percent. Lows for both stats reached
negative growth in the 2009 financial crisis almost hitting -2.5 percent. For Saudi Arabia the
statistics can’t even be represented well on the same axis due to the high fluctuations. But what
it does show is that the high changes in GDP are followed by increases in inflation. For example
as shown, the 220 percent increase in GDP was followed by a roughly 35 percent increase in
inflation soon after. Also shown for Saudi Arabia is the nearly 20 percent decrease in GDP in
2009 while at the same time as mentioned before the US only suffered a 2 percent. With similar
monetary policy principles such as reserve requirements, one of the differences is the ability to

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use interest rates to conduct economic growth or destruction for the greater good and price
stability.
For my regression analysis, I looked at the inflation growth or decreases as well as the
GDP growth or decrease for each nation and pitted them against each other. Removing interest
rates from the equation, GDP growth directly impacts the increase of money for each nation
leading to inflation. What I expect to see is that the GDP increases in the US have minimal
significance or impact on inflation since The Fed has tools to readily combat these issues. For
Saudi Arabia I expect to see a major link between the two especially since the graphs shows
correlation already. Since inflation is often associated as an effect of GDP shifts, I made
inflation my dependent variable for both analyses. First I did the US comparison and got the
following output.
Model 1: OLS, using observations 1969-2013 (T = 45)
Dependent variable: INF_US
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value
const 4.9244 0.722708 6.8138 <0.00001 ***
GDP_US -0.204691 0.20818 -0.9832 0.33099
Mean dependent var 4.354325 S.D. dependent var 2.893168
Sum squared resid 360.2001 S.E. of regression 2.894261
R-squared 0.021988 Adjusted R-squared -0.000756
F(1, 43) 0.966756 P-value(F) 0.330991
Log-likelihood -110.6522 Akaike criterion 225.3043
Schwarz criterion 228.9177 Hannan-Quinn 226.6514
rho 0.816788 Durbin-Watson 0.380241
This regression shows that in the US, GDP is not statistically significant in predicting inflation in
the US. We are currently seeing this in our economy because GDP has increased ever since the
recession but our inflation has been near stagnant. Looking at the R-squared statistic, it shows

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that GDP could account for only a two percent shift in inflation. Also with an high P-value, the
GDP coefficient is rendered void.
Model 2: OLS, using observations 1969-2013 (T = 45)
Dependent variable: INF_SA
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value
const 2.34488 1.15266 2.0343 0.04812 **
GDP_SA 0.107119 0.030878 3.4691 0.00120 ***
Mean dependent var 3.991510 S.D. dependent var 7.880447
Sum squared resid 2134.943 S.E. of regression 7.046264
R-squared 0.218675 Adjusted R-squared 0.200504
F(1, 43) 12.03469 P-value(F) 0.001200
Log-likelihood -150.6917 Akaike criterion 305.3834
Schwarz criterion 308.9968 Hannan-Quinn 306.7305
rho 0.488065 Durbin-Watson 1.023790
This model substantiates my original hypothesis that GDP in Saudi Arabia precedes inflation
significantly. Looking at the P-value of GDP_SA, it is shown to have strong statistical
significance by having 3 stars and unlike the US figure it is positive which portrays a positive
linear relationship between the two. There are other factors that can contribute to inflation, but
using the R-squared value in this model, GDP can be responsible for a near 22 percent change in
inflation.
The major difference I would attribute to these occurrences is the ability to dictate
business cycles with interest rates, which for these models appear to work in the benefit of the

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United States and its central bank. Interest rates have had controversy tied to them occasionally
because they aren’t dictated by market forces but by the Fed. If the Fed wasn’t in the position to
dictate interest rates, would the US have a need for them? Other than interest rates driving large
profits for the financial sector, could we possibly find an appreciation for loans based on their
profitability in the long run rather than just on interest rates.
Works Cited
Ahmad, Ashfaq, Kashif-ur-Rehman, and Asad Afzal Humayoun. "Islamic Banking and
Prohibition of Riba/interest." African Journal of Business Managment 5.5 (2010): 1763-
767. 4 Mar. 2011. Web. 30 Sept. 2015.
El-Gamal, Mahmoud Amin. "A Basic Guide to Contemporary Islamic Banking and Finance."
(2000): n. pag. Web. 19 Nov. 2015. <https://www.lariba.com/site/pdf/islamic-banking-
guide.pdf>.
Farooq, Mohammad Omar. "Exploitation, Profit and the Riba/interest Reductionism." I J Islam
Mid East Fin and Mgt International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and
Management 5.4 (2012): 292-320. Proquest. Web. 10 Oct. 2015.
Greider, William. Secrets of the Temple: How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country. New York:
Simon and Schuster, 1987. Print.
IIBI. "Institute of Islamic Banking and Insurance - Islamic Banking Principle." Institute of
Islamic Banking and Insurance - Islamic Banking Principle. Institute of Islamic Banking
and Insurance, n.d. Web. 19 Nov. 2015. <http://www.islamic-
banking.com/islamic_banking_principle.aspx>.

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Mester, Loretta J. "Long-Run Economic Growth." Clevelandfed. Federal Reserve Bank of
Cleveland, 15 Oct. 2015. Web. 19 Nov. 2015. <https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-
and-events/speeches/sp-20151015-long-run-economic-growth.aspx>.
Quandl. "Saudi Arabia - Unemployment Data - Data from Quandl." Saudi Arabia -
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<https://www.quandl.com/collections/saudi-arabia/saudi-arabia-unemployment>.
"Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate | 1999-2015 |." Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate | 1999-
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<http://www.tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arabia/unemployment-rate>.
Shaikh, Salman Ahmed. "Role and Functions of Central Bank in Islamic Finance." Role and
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<https://www.academia.edu/565309/Role_and_Functions_of_Central_Bank_in_Islamic_
Finance>.
Totaro, Lorenzo. "Vatican Says Islamic Finance May Help Western Banks in Crisis."
Bloomberg.com. Bloomberg, 4 Mar. 2009. Web. 19 Nov. 2015.
<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOsOLE8uiNOg>.
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