Deck presented for a Masters class in Energy and Environment Policy at Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM) in Spain.

1. The Strategy of the European Union
on the Climate Change
Gerardo A. Escamilla
October 11, 2017

2. Gerardo A. Escamilla | 1
At a Glance: Understanding European Strategy and Outlining Next
Steps onto Addressing Climate Change Issues
European Influence on Climate Change p.21
Strategy Highlights: How Will EU Get There? p.52
Thoughts on Strategy Implementation p.103

3. Since 1991, Europe Has Focused Consistently on Improving Policies
and Implementing Solutions to Address Climate Change
EU Community
Strategy
Kyoto Protocol
European Climate
Change Programme
(ECCP)
Energy Security
Strategy
Paris Climate
Agreement
EU Energy Union
1991 2000
Sources:
1EDGAR v4.3.2 FT2015. Only includes Fossil-Fuels & Cement Production 3World Energy Outlook 2016. International Energy Agency
2World Energy Outlook 2015. International Energy Agency
Gerardo A. Escamilla | 2
Europe Has Shown Effective Leadership on Climate ChangeControl through the Past 25Years2
Achieving the NPS and 450 Scenario Targets, at Least $19 Trillion DollarsAre
Required as Investment in the Power Sector
While Main Contributors of CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels and Cement Have
Reducedsince 2000, Participation from China and India Increases
China and India Increased
their CO2 Emissions by
200% and 120% in the last
15 years
CO2EmisionsfromFossil-FuelUseandCementProduction1
(Top5EmitingCountries&EuropeanUnion)
CumulativeGlobalPowerSectorInvestmentintheNewPoliciesand450Scenarios3
(2016–2040|NPSTotal:$19.2TrillionUSD|450Total:$22.4TrillionUSD)
1997 2014 2015 2016

4. Three Scenarios Stated by the IEA Show the Future Outcomes in a
Current Policies (CPS), New Policies (NPS) and a 450 Scenarios
Sources:
1World Energy Outlook 2016. International Energy Agency Gerardo A. Escamilla | 3
Both, New Policies Scenario and 450 Scenario Represent Significant Growth of Global
Demand of Renewablesfrom the 2014 Baseline
While CO2 Emissions of the Energy Sector Rise by 4 Gt In the New Policies Scenario,
They Fall by 14 Gt In the 450 Scenario
GlobalprimaryenergydemandandrelatedCO2 emissionsbyscenario1
(2016)
Sharesofglobaldemandmetbyrenewableenergyinselected
sectorsintheNewPoliciesand450Scenarios1
•Existing Energy Policies
•Benchmark against “New” Policies
Current Policies
(CPS)
•Existing Energy Policies
•Implementation of Paris AgreementNew Policies (NPS)
•2°C Limit above Pre-Industrial Levels
•60% Power from Renewables450 Scenario (450)
Each of the 3 Scenarios Present a Useful Outlook of What Is Most Likely to Happen
Versus What Should Happen toAchieve 2040 CO2 Emissions Targets1
• Not Normative
• Not Normative
• 5% Reduction Elec. Demand
• Lower Level of Ambition
• Paris Agreement Not Working

5. European Influence on Climate Change p.21
Strategy Highlights: How Will EU Get There? p.52
Thoughts on Strategy Implementation p.103
Gerardo A. Escamilla | 4
At a Glance: Understanding European Strategy and Outlining Next
Steps onto Addressing Climate Change Issues

6. European Commission Has Taken Ownership of Climate Change by
Setting Improvement Targets through 2020, 2030 and 2050
Sources:
12020 Energy Strategy, 2030 Energy Strategy & 2050 Energy Strategy. European Commission 3Share of Renewable Energy in Gross Final Energy Consumption. European Environment Agency .
2World Energy Outlook 2016. International Energy Agency 2016 – 2020 Projection Calculated by Gerardo A. Escamilla, Using 2010 – 2015 Avg. YOY Increase
Gerardo A. Escamilla | 5
-20%
-40%
-95%
20% 27%
80%
20% 30%
N/A
2020 2030 2050
GHG Emissions Renewables Share Energy Efficiency
TargetsforGreenhouseGases(GHG)EmissionsReduction,
RenewablesConsumptionandEnergyEfficiencyImprovement1
Targets Compared to 1990 LevelsAre Concentrated in ThreeAreas: Greenhouse
Gases (GHG) Reduction, Renewable Consumption and Energy Efficiency
EuropeanUnion Could Meet the 2020 Renewable Share Target by 2019 Due to its
Multifaceted Strategy if Consumption Rate Keeps Increasing at 5.3%Annually
Global CO2Emissions Could Be Reducedfor the 450 Scenario by 201 Gt More than the New Policy Scenario with CO2Abatement Focuson Efficiency and Renewables
GlobalEnergy-RelatedCO2EmissionsbyScenarioandAdditionalCO2
AbatementbyMeasureinthe450Scenario2
450 Scenario is more aggressive and requires additional CO2 abatement measures
than the New Policies Scenario
Even more Renewables into the Energy
mix, accounting for 34% of the
additional CO2 Abatement
Global market size
for wind and solar PV
doubles in the 450
Scenario
Renewables
accounting for nearly
60% of global
electricity supply
Additional Energy
Efficiency
Improvements
Power sector CO2
emissions are cut by
80% by 2040,
Carbon Capture & Storage
Improvement
Decarbonizing steel,
chemical and cement
industries
CCS-fitted fossil fuel
plants
EURenewableEnergyConsumptionPercentage3
(2010–2015;Avg.YearlyIncreaseRate5.3%usedfor2016–2020Projection)
12.9 13.2
14.4
15.2
16.1
16.7
17.6
18.5
19.5
20.5
21.6
20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU (28 countries) 5.3% Projection 2020 Target

7. Europe Is Betting on Climate Change Management and Energy
Efficiency through the Energy Union and Multinational Integrations
Sources:
1Energy Strategy and Energy Union. European Comission. Gerardo A. Escamilla | 6
Across The Outlined Strategies, the Most RelevantAre the Foundation of the Energy Union and the Energy Security Strategy1
Energy Union
Security, Solidarity and
trust
Fully-integrated internal
energy market
Energy efficiency
Decarbonising the economy
Research, Innovation &
Competitiveness
Energy Security
Strategy
Short Term Gas Shortage
Simulations
Increase Energy Efficiency
• Buildings
• Industry
Increase Energy Production
& Supplier Routes
Complete Internal Energy
Market & Infrastructure
Unify EU in One Voice
Strengthen
Emergency/Solidarity
Mechanisms
Clean Energy for
EU Islands
Latest Energy Technologies
Better Energy Security
Improved air quality, less
GHG emissions
New Jobs & business
opportunities
2020 Energy
Strategy
2030 Energy
Strategy
2050 Energy
Strategy

8. The Energy Union Consists of Five Closely Related and Mutually
Reinforcing Dimensions
Sources:
1Energy Union and Climate. European Commission. Gerardo A. Escamilla | 7
EnergyUnionInfographic
(2015;PresentedbeforetheParisClimateConference)
Energy Union
Security, Solidarity
and trust
Fully-integrated
internal energy
market
Energy efficiency
Decarbonising the
economy
Research,
Innovation &
Competitiveness
Electricity
Infrastructure
Wholesale
Markets
Retail Markets
and Consumers

9. € 13,417
97%
€ 365
3%
Nominal GDP Energy Import
Energy Security Strategy Proposes a Solution to Importing Half of
Used Energy through Simulations and 5 Long Term Action Plans
Sources:
1European Climate Change Programme (ECCP)
2European Commission YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8Wj6qQVCrQ&t
Gerardo A. Escamilla | 8
About Half the Energy Used in Europe Is Imported, Costing 1 Billion Euros Every Single Day (3% of GDP)
40%
42%
66%
90%
Nuclear fuel
Salid fuels
Natural Gas
Oil
DistributionofImportedEnergytoEuropeanUnionbyFuelType1
(2015)
ImportedFuel
ImportedEnergyAgainstNominalGDP1
(2015;€13.4TrillionNominalGDP–EU)
5 Long TermAction PlansAre Designed toAchieve Energy Security for Europe
1
• Increase Energy Efficiency in Buildings (40% usage) & Industry (25% usage)
2
• Increase Energy Production
• Diversify Supplier Countries/Routes
3
• Complete Internal Energy Market & Infrastructure
4
• Unify the European Union as One Voice for external policy matters
5
• Strengthen the emergency/solidarity mechanisms
TheEuropeanEnergySecurityStrategy–Video2
(2015;EuropeanCommission)

10. European Influence on Climate Change p.21
Strategy Highlights: How Will EU Get There? p.52
Thoughts on Strategy Implementation p.103
Gerardo A. Escamilla | 9
At a Glance: Understanding European Strategy and Outlining Next
Steps onto Addressing Climate Change Issues

11. The European Union Strategy Works: In Europe. Globally, it Faces Three Main
Obstacles: Sense of Urgency, Negligible EU Efforts & Broken Agreements
Sources:
1BP Energy Outlook 2017. BP 3The last time a US president dumped a global climate deal. (2017). ABC News
2World Energy Outlook 2016. International Energy Agency 4Donald Trump confirms US will quit Paris climate agreement. (2017). The Guardian
Gerardo A. Escamilla | 10
Excessive Supply of Oil Resources Can Fulfil Demand
until 2050, Decreasing the Sense of Urgency of EU Policy
1. Target
Compromise
2. Lower
Realisation
Probability
Kyoto Protocol
Withdrawal
Paris
Agreement
Withdrawal
Market Will Be Defined by Emerging Countries, which
Will Not Likely Comply with EU Energy & Climate Policy
BrokenAgreements, Mainly from the United States,
Decrease the Climate ChangeRealisation Chances3,4
EU’s CO2 Emissions Reducein NPS, but Not Enough to
Influence Global Compliance with 2030’s Target
ProjectedCO2 EmissionsbyCountry–NewPoliciesScenario1
(GigatonsofCO2 Equivalent;)
2001 2017
55%
65%
2010 2035
Non-OECDEnergyDemand2
(PercentageShareofOverallDemand;)
EnergyConsumptionbyRegion1
(2017;BillionTonsofCO2 Equivalent)
EstimatesofTechnicallyRecoverableResourcesandCumulativeOilDemand1
(2017;TrillionBarrels)
Europe’s Share in Global Energy Demand Will Decrease
56% toAccount Less than 10% by theYear 2040
18.7
12.3
10.8
10.0 9.3 8.8 8.3
1990 2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
EUShareinPrimaryEnergyConsumption2
(GigatonsofCO2 Equivalent;)
56% Less