Climate change is exacerbating water scarcity around the world, particularly in developing regions of Asia and Africa. By 2050, an estimated 130 million people in Asia and 180 million in Africa will live in water-scarce areas due to climate change. Competition over limited water resources can increase tensions and conflict, especially when combined with poor governance and ethnic rivalries. Several case studies from Indonesia, Central Asia, India/Pakistan/Bangladesh, and China illustrate how water scarcity caused or exacerbated by climate change is already causing disputes and social instability in those regions.

1. A Drop of Waterand Blood Spillage ZulfadhliNasution Poster Presentation Asia – Pacific Forum: Youth Action on Climate Change Bangkok, 24th January 2010

3. Background The essentiality of water for human life and all of universe elements Climate change is bringing us into water scarcity If it is combined with the poor government and rivalries ethnic, a drop of water can spark the blood spillage

4. Researches Climate change causes water crisis among 1,9 billions world people, particularly in developing countries The worst impact is going to be in Asia and Africa regions. Approximately 130 millions of Asian will be trapped in water scarcity in 2050. In 2080, 180 millions African also will get the same impact. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

5. Researches 40% of the world’s people live in river or lake basins that cross over one or more international borders. From the 200 biggest water systems in the world, 150 of them are used by two nations, and the others 50 are shared by between three and ten countries. (Max Ajl, Solve Climate News, 2009)

6. Researches Competition over dwindling or degraded natural resources can increase the risks of conflict and war. Although most conflicts are not directly related to natural resources, stresses on natural ecosystem services can lead to competition between population groups over, for example, freshwater supplies or fertile agricultural land. Combined with factors such as poor governance and ethnic rivalries, such competition can inflame tensions into conflict. (WHO Report, refers to Sudan post-conflictenvironmentalassessment. Nairobi, United Nations Environment Programme, 2007)

7. Cases Indonesia: Cali Rahman irrigates his rice field with water from a secondary canal. But during a long dry season, when the water volume in the main canal is very low, he runs short. Farmers in the upstream areas have taken too much water, leaving very little for the farmers downstream. As a result, he and his neighbours have to pump groundwater which, aside from being expensive because of fuel costs, is increasingly being contaminated by the intrusion of seawater. This water scarcity for rice field irrigation has triggered panic and water disputes. (UNDP Indonesia, 2007)

8. Cases Central Asia: Above-average warming and glacial retreat will exacerbate the water, agricultural and distributional problems in a region which is already characterized by political and social tensions, civil war (Tajikistan) and conflicts over access to water and energy resources. (UNEP, 2007)

9. Cases India, Pakistan, Bangladesh: The impacts of climate change will be especially severe in this region: glacial retreat in the Himalayas will jeopardize the water supply for millions of people, changes to the annual monsoon will affect agriculture, and sea-level rise and cyclones will threaten human settlements around the populous Bay of Bengal. These dynamics will increase the social crisis potential in a region which is already characterized by cross-border conflicts (India/Pakistan), unstable governments (Bangladesh/Pakistan) (UNEP, 2007)

10. Cases China: Climate change will intensify the existing environmental stress (e.g. air and water pollution, soil degradation) due to the increase in heat waves and droughts, which will worsen desertification and water scarcity in some parts of the country. (UNEP, 2007)