3. Dynamics going into Super Tuesday
Biden’s SC Win Exceeds
Expectations
After South Carolina, other
moderate candidates quickly
ended their campaigns,
endorsed Biden and sent a
clear message: the party
needs to unite to beat Trump.
Other moderates drop
Coronavirus and the
economy
Consumers are nervous as
the CDC says a coronavirus
outbreak is inevitable. The
stock market had its worst
week since the 2008 crisis.
The Trump administration has
tried to downplay the threat
as Democrats and public
health experts sound the
alarm. Bloomberg made it a
central ad message.
Biden won big in South
Carolina with a broad
coalition of support, giving
his campaign a much-needed
boost right before Super
Tuesday.
Sources: https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-03-02/joe-biden-endorsements-harry-reid-klobuchar; https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/trump-says-he-can-bring-in-coronavirus-
experts-quickly-the-experts-say-it-is-not-that-simple/2020/02/27/6ce214a6-5983-11ea-8753-73d96000faae_story.html; https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/02/28/stock-markets-tumble-
because-coronavirus-this-time-feels-different/; https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/politics/donald-trump-fundraising-republican-national-committee/index.html
!
4. What did Democratic voters have on their minds on Super Tuesday?
Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/03/02/super-tuesday-south-carolina-voter-turnout-boosts-democrats/4926462002/; https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/exit-
polls-2020-south-carolina-primary/; https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/03/us/politics/super-tuesday-election-vote.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage;
https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-03-04/voter-turnout-surges-in-several-key-super-tuesday-states-boosting-joe-biden; https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/politics/super-tuesday-exit-
polls/index.html
"
! They knew it was important to show up. Many Super Tuesday states saw record turnout.
! They made late decisions. 39% of all Super Tuesday voters – and half of voters in key states
like Virginia, North Carolina, Minnesota, and Texas – were undecided before Tuesday.
! They recognized there was no perfect candidate. Interviews with voters at the polls
uncovered doubts and anxieties about whether their choice was the right one.
! It was all about Trump. Healthcare was the most important issue to voters – but a candidate’s
position on the issues mattered less to voters than their ability to win in November.
6. Biden won big across the South and exceeded expectations in the Northeast
#
Pete Buttigieg
Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders
Warren came in
third in her home
state of
Massachusetts
There were reports of long wait times at polling
locations across Texas and California, raising
concerns in Texas about voting rights and in
California about new voting machines
Biden’s wins in
MN and ME came
as a surprise
7. Margins in South Carolina, Virginia, and North Carolina were larger than expected
$
NV SC AL AR CA CO ME MA MN NC OK TN TX UT VT VA
20.2% 48.7% 63.2% 40.5% 25.2% 24.5% 34.0% 33.5% 38.6% 43.0% 38.7% 41.7% 34.5% 18.0% 22.0% 53.3%
46.8% 19.8% 16.6% 22.4% 33.6% 36.5% 32.9% 26.7% 29.9% 24.1% 25.4% 25.0% 30.0% 34.8% 50.7% 23.1%
9.7% 7.1% 5.7% 10.0% 12.3% 17.6% 15.8% 21.5% 15.4% 10.5% 13.4% 10.4% 11.4% 15.9% 12.5% 10.8%
n/a n/a 11.7% 16.7% 14.1% 19.0% 12.0% 11.7% 8.3% 13.0% 13.9% 15.4% 14.4% 16.3% 9.4% 9.7%
Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Michael Bloomberg
Biden +29 Biden +19 Biden +30
*Some states have not finalized counting – results as of 9am Friday, March 6
Source: New York Times Super Tuesday results (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-super-tuesday-primary-election.html)
Super Tuesday states
Pre-Super
Tuesday states
8. At the last-minute, Biden’s fortunes changed and he gained significant momentum
%
Other moderates exited
His base showed up and
he broadened his coalition
His message got clearer
His momentum held
Klobuchar and Buttigieg exited just in time and
quickly endorsed Biden. Other key figures like Beto
O’Rourke turned out in support too.
Biden’s strongest constituencies (African American,
older, and suburban Dems) came out in full force. He
also won every age group over 45, moderates, those
who said they were “somewhat” liberal.
With other moderates gone, Biden positioned himself
as the one alternative to Sanders, the candidate voters
can trust to build on Obama’s legacy and the one who
would be most likely to beat President Trump.
Clyburn’s endorsement and Biden’s big win in South
Carolina created a powerful surge ahead of Tuesday,
showing voters that Biden can be a front-runner.
Source: Super Tuesday exit polls (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/exit-polls-2020-super-tuesday-primary/)
9. Sanders didn’t live up to expectations on Tuesday
&
His coalition didn’t grow
His base didn’t show up
Issues mattered less
He split votes with Warren
To win big, Sanders needed to grow his base beyond
very liberal, young voters, but he couldn’t do it in time
for Tuesday.
Most of Tuesdays’ voters wanted a nominee who could
beat Trump over one who agrees with them most on
issues. The “not Trump” voters went 2-to-1 for Biden.
Sanders expected a youth surge, but it hasn’t panned
out. Only 1 in 8 voters were under 30 on Tuesday.
He only got half of the “very liberal” vote, with 1 in 5
going to Warren. January polling shows that Warren
voters prefer Sanders as their second choice.
Source: Super Tuesday exit polls (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/exit-polls-2020-super-tuesday-primary/) (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/politics/super-tuesday-exit-polls/index.html );
Quinnipiac, 1/22-27/20, 1,905 Registered voters (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3654)
10. Warren and Bloomberg had disappointing nights and both have since ended their
campaigns
'(
Despite his massive spending,
Bloomberg didn’t perform well
in debates and couldn’t
overcome perceptions that he
was buying his way in.
Warren had trouble
connecting to voters –
even in her home state.
! Her best performance was in
Massachusetts, where she picked up 22%
of the vote (23 delegates).
! But coming in third place in her home
state was a major disappointment.
! She officially ended her campaign on
Thursday.
! Bloomberg spent more than all other
Democratic candidates combined, but only
picked up a handful of delegates on Tuesday.
! He officially ended his campaign on
Wednesday and endorsed Biden and has
announced plans to start a new organization to
elect Democrats in battleground states. The
new group has already released a new digital
ad targeting President Trump.
Source: 538 analysis (https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1235223238134968320?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet);
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/05/michael-bloomberg-releases-trump-ad-122380
11. Biden is back in the lead nationally but expect more shifts as new polling is released
33%
40%
35%
32%
30%
28%
32%
31%
30%
26%
27%
29%
27%
26%
28% 28% 28%
27% 27%
19%
34%
19%
16%
17%
16%
17%
15%
16%
16%
18% 17%
14%
16% 17%
18%
16%
19% 19%
24% 24%
29%
27%
8% 7%
6%
8%
6%
5%
6%
5%
4%
5%
6%
5%
8% 8%
11%
9%
8%
7% 7%
11%
10%
8% 8%
9%
11%
13%
15% 15%
17% 18%
17%
26%
23%
21% 21%
14%
16%
15% 16% 15%
14%
1% 1%
2%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2%
3% 4% 3% 4%
5%
4%
3%
5% 5%
7%
8%
14%
16%
1-M
ay-1915-M
ay-191-Jun-1915-Jun-19
1-Jul-1915-Jul-191-Aug-1915-Aug-191-Sep-1915-Sep-191-O
ct-1915-O
ct-191-N
ov-1915-Nov-191-D
ec-1915-Dec-191-Jan-2015-Jan-201-Feb-2015-Feb-201-M
ar-205-M
ar-20
Rolling Polling Average Nationwide
Pete Buttigieg
Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Michael Bloomberg
Amy Klobuchar
Source: RealClearPolitics, 5/1-3/6/2020 (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html); Morning Consult
(https://morningconsult.com/2020/03/05/sanders-biden-can-expect-near-equal-gain-from-warrens-exit/)
Polls reflected here were
fielded before recent
candidates dropped.
Later polls may reflect
higher numbers for
Biden.
Polling suggests that
Warren supporters are
split between Sanders
and Biden as their
second choice.
''
13. Biden is surging ahead in the delegate count, but Sanders is still competitive
2
7
26
60
64
551
627
Tulsi Gabbard
Amy Klobuchar
Pete Buttigieg
Michael Bloomberg
Elizabeth Warren
Bernie Sanders
Joe Biden
Current Delegate Count Need 1,991 to
win on first ballot
Source: New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/us/elections/2020-presidential-election-calendar.html, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/elections/delegate-count-primary-results.html)
Note: In 2008 and 2016, Pres. Obama and Sec. Clinton won enough delegates to secure their nominations in June.
'!
162 delegates
from Super
Tuesday contests
are yet to be
assigned
1,091 delegates
remain to be
decided in March
1,389 delegates
remain to be
decided after
March
14. There are still 1,091 delegates to be assign in March and Biden is expected to do well
Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/
'"
Sanders is favored to make gains in Western states and those he won in 2016:
! Washington (89)*
! Idaho (20)*
Biden is polling ahead in many large states as well as southern states:
! Florida (219)
! Ohio (136)
! Mississippi (36)
But plenty are up for grabs:
! Missouri (68)
! N. Dakota (14)*
! Georgia (105)
! Michigan (125)*
! Illinois (155)
! Arizona (67)
! Puerto Rico (51)
*Notes states Sanders won in 2016.
15. A contested convention remains a real possibility
')
It’s unlikely that
any one
Democratic
candidate will
receive a majority
of the delegates.
So then what happens?
1. The candidate(s) with the fewest delegates end their campaign.
2. Democrats enter a “contested” convention:
The first vote: Pledged delegates* vote for their assigned
candidate. If no one reaches 1,991, it goes to a second vote.
New this year: 771 superdelegates (i.e., elected officials and party
insiders who don’t decide based on primary vote counts) are not
allowed to vote in the first round.
The second vote: Superdelegates will vote in this round.
Candidates lobby the original pledged delegates and
superdelegates for their vote. A candidate will need 2,378 votes to
secure the nomination.
*Pledged delegates are not legally required to vote for the candidate they are assigned to in the first round of voting. In the second round
of voting and beyond, they may vote for any candidate.
16. Biden’s wins shifted predictions for the nomination, but Trump is still favored to win overall
Chance that Biden wins the nomination
79%
Up from
27% in late
February
Chance that Trump wins against the
Democratic nominee
53%
Up from
52% in late
February
What are the prediction markets saying about 2020?
Sanders has fallen from 56% in late February
to 15% today.
Source: PredictIt (https://www.predictit.org/markets/13/Prez-Election), Retrieved 3/4/20
'#
17. What to watch in the coming weeks
'$
! Will Biden hold up as frontrunner? Even after Tuesday night he’s still criticized on his delivery and
stamina, so we’ll see if his momentum can overcome these other weaknesses.
! Can Sanders expand his base? Young voter turnout has been disappointing so far. He’ll need to
better mobilize them – all while growing his existing coalition – to stay competitive.
! Where will President Trump turn his focus? The President’s tweets talk about how the Democratic
Party is ”staging a coup” against Sanders in favor of Biden and calling Warren a “spoiler” by not
dropping before Tuesday. We’ll see if he continues to defend Sanders in the coming weeks, and
attacks Biden.
18. Upcoming calendar
Date Event
March 10 Primaries in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, and Washington (352 delegates)
March 15 Democratic debate in Phoenix, AZ – hosted by CNN, Univision, and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus
March 17 Primaries in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio (577 delegates)
March 24 Primary in Georgia (105 delegates)
March 29 Primary in Puerto Rico (51 delegates)
April 4 Primaries in Alaska, Hawaii, Louisiana, and Wyoming (107 delegates)
April 7 Primary in Wisconsin (84 delegates)
April 28 Primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island (663 delegates)
July 13-16 Democratic convention in Milwaukee, WI
Aug. 24-27 Republican convention in Charlotte, NC
Nov. 3 Election Day
'%
19. GPG Research & Insight
GPG has a full-service research and insight team offering an innovative suite of
qualitative, quantitative, digital and analytics services. We go beyond the standard Q&A
and use research to make strategic recommendations on complex issues and political
topics that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
publicopinion@gpg.com
'&
