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GPG Public Opinion Landscape
- 1. N o v e m b e r 8 , 2 0 1 7 Public Opinion Landscape
- 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS Slides correspond to the issues faced by President Trump between May – October 2017 Slide Number Trump Approval Ratings (January – October 2017) 3 Charlottesville, VA (May 2017) 5 Paris Climate Accord (June 2017) 7 North Korea (September 2017) 9 Health Care: ACA, AHCA, “Skinny Repeal” (September 2017) 12 Hurricane Response (September – October 2017) 14 Gun Control: Las Vegas Shooting (October 2017) 17 A Look Ahead: The 2018 Midterms 20
- 3. 3 Trump Approval Ratings Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017
- 4. 4 President Trump approval ratings over time Approval 12 points lower than Inauguration Day; Disapproval at all-time high Source: Gallup, January 29-October 1, 2017, n=1500 Adults Daily Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017 45 43 41 40 42 43 42 40 39 38 40 40 41 41 42 38 38 41 38 37 38 39 39 38 39 37 38 37 36 37 35 36 37 38 38 37 38 37 36 33 47 52 53 54 53 51 52 55 56 57 53 54 52 54 53 56 56 54 56 58 57 56 56 57 56 58 57 58 58 58 60 59 57 57 55 58 56 57 57 62 2017 Jan 20-29 2017 Feb 27-Mar 5 2017 Apr 3-9 2017 May 8-14 2017 Jun 12-18 2017 Jul 17-23 2017 Aug 21-27 2017 Sep 25-Oct 1 33% approve Oct. 29, 2017 47% disapprove 45% approve Jan. 20, 2017 62% disapprove Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
- 5. 5 Charlottesville, VA Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017
- 6. 6 Nearly two-thirds of Americans think President Trump’s handling of this crisis is inadequate Source: NPR/PBS News Hour/Marist Poll, August 17, 2017 Do you feel President Trump’s Response to the Violence in Charlottesville has been strong enough, or not strong enough? 27% 52% 21% Strong Enough Not Strong Enough Unsure 77% of African Americans say Trump’s response is inadequate 31% of Whites say Trump’s response is adequate Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017
- 7. 7 Paris Climate Accord Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017
- 8. 8 Americans largely oppose the U.S. withdrawing from international Paris Climate Agreement Source: AP-NORC, June 8-11, 2017 Nearly 200 countries recently signed an international agreement in Paris to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Do you support, oppose, or neither support nor oppose the US withdrawing from the agreement? 29% 46% 23% Approve Disapprove Don't know How much of an impact will withdrawing form the agreement will have on the national economy in the long run? 18% 52% 27% Help Hurt No Impact How concerned are you that the U.S. withdrawing from this agreement will hurt global efforts to fight climate change?: 32% 25% 43% Not very/not concerend at all Moderately concerned Extremely/very concerned Source: AP-NORC, June 8-11, 2017 Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017
- 9. 9 North Korea Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017
- 10. 10 North Korea’s Development of Nuclear Weapons: most believe situation can be contained Republicans more likely to opt for military action than Democrats. Source: CBS, September 21-24, 2017 Total Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017 24% 67% 7% Requires military action Can be contained Is not a threat 48% 46% 3% Democrats Republicans 33% 59% 5%
- 11. 11 Majority of Americans disapprove of President Trump’s handling of North Korea, largely along party lines Source: CBS, September 21-24, 2017 Do you approve or disapprove Trump’s handling of North Korea? Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017 What concerns you more with North Korea: That the U.S. would…? Approval – darker shade Disapproval – lighter shade 17% 53% 83% 79% 39% 12% GOP Total DEM Source: CBS, September 21-24, 2017 53% 36% Act too quicly and start a war Not act quicly enough and get attcked
- 12. Health Care: The Affordable Care Act 12 Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017
- 13. Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017 Affordable Care Act Approval 13 43% 43% 48% 49% 46% 48% 49% 51% 50% 52% 46% 51% 45% 46% 42% 44% 46% 41% 42% 41% 44% 39% 44% 40% Favorable Unfavorable 2016 Election (Nov. 8, 2016) Trump Inauguratio n (Jan. 20, 2017) AHCA (Mar. 6 – Apr. 26, 2017) CBO released (Jun. 26, 2017) BCRA (Jun. 22-27, 2017) BCRA v. 2, Partial repeal, Skinny repeal (Jul. 13-25, 2017) Graham- Cassidy (Sept. 13- 26, 2017) Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, October 13, 2017 As you may know, a health care reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of it?
- 14. Hurricane Response Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 201714
- 15. 32% 23% 19% 11% 14% Strongly approve Somewhat approve Not sure Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 32% 24% 20% 11% 13% Strongly approve Somewhat approve Not sure Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Trump Administration Handling of Hurricanes: Harvey and Irma Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump has handled Hurricane Harvey? Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump has handled Hurricane Irma? Source: HuffPost, September 26-27, 2017 15 Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017
- 16. 29% 16% 24% 21% 24% Strongly approve Somewhat approve Not sure Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump has handled Hurricane Maria? Trump Administration Handling of Hurricanes: Maria Sources: HuffPost, September 26-27, 2017; CNN, October 12-15, 2017 16 Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017 Approval of the federal government’s response to recent hurricanes dropped 20 points following Hurricane Maria. On September 20, 64% approved; on October 15, only 44% approved.
- 17. Gun Control: Las Vegas Shooting Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 201717
- 18. 61% 34% 5% More strict Kept as they are now Less strict Source: Gallup, October 5-11, 2017 48% 39% 13% Fewer mass shootings Not make a difference More mass shootings After Las Vegas Shooting, most believe gun laws should be more strict Nearly half believe gun control would result in fewer mass shootings. 18 Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017 Do you think guns laws should be…? If it was harder for people to legally obtain guns in the United States, do you think there would be…?
- 19. 65% 65% 67% 67% 71% 74% 75% 14% 17% 15% 16% 16% 13% 13% 8% 7% 8% 6% 7% 6% 5% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 6% 4% 4% 5% 2% 2% 3% Banning the use of bump fire stocks, which is a gun accessory that allows for a shooter to fire hundreds of rounds per minute Preventing sales of all firearms to people who have been convicted of violent misdemeanors Barring gun purchases by people on the federal no-fly or watch lists Making private gun sales and sales at gun shows subject to background checks Expanding screening and treatment for the mentally ill Preventing sales of all firearms to people who have been reported as dangerous to law enforcement by a mental health provider Requiring background checks on all gun sales Strongly support Somewhat support Don't know/no opinion Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose 19 Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017 Ma jo ritie s s u p p o rt c e rta in me a s u re s to re s tric t g u n p o lic y Requiring background checks on all gun sales, preventing gun purchases by mentally ill top list. Source: Morning Consult, October 5-9, 2017 Here is a list of policies surrounding gun ownership in the United State. Do you support or oppose each of the following? *responses with less than 60% “strongly approve” not shown
- 20. 20 A Look Ahead: The 2018 Midterms Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017
- 21. 21 WHAT’S AT STAKE Republicans Democrats 241 194 All 435 seats being contested. Democrats need to win a net of 24 seats from the Republicans to gain control of the House. House: Senate: Republicans Democrats 52 48* 34 seats being contested. Democrats need to win a net of 3 seats from the Republicans to gain control of the Senate. * 46 Democrats + 2 Independents Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017
- 22. 22 SENATE: 2018 map favors Republicans Democrats: 48* Republicans: 52 *Two independents caucus with Democrats K Y G A N C Dems in states Trump won: 1. Florida (Nelson) 2. Indiana (Donnelly) 3. Michigan (Stabenow) 4. Missouri (McCaskill) 5. Montana (Tester) 6. North Dakota (Heitkamp) 7. Ohio (Brown) 8. Pennsylvania (Casey) 9. West Virginia (Manchin) 10. Wisconsin (Baldwin) Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017 States Democrats plan to target in 2018: : 1. Nevada (Heller) 2. Arizona (Flake) 3. Tennessee (Corker) 4. Texas (Cruz)
- 23. SENATE: Retirements and primary challenges may help Democrats in Midterms Sen. Jeff Flake (R- Arizona) announced he would not seek reelection to the Senate in 2018 on October 24, 2017. Sen. Bob Corker (R- Tennessee) announced he would not seek reelection to the Senate in 2018 on September 26, 2017. Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 201723 President Trump’s former chief strategist, Steve Bannon, is planning Republican Primary challenges to every sitting U.S. Senator, except Sen. Ted Cruz (TX). (September 10, 2017)
- 24. HOUSE: Public Opinion gives Democrats a slight edge on 2018 General Ballot 52% 10% 38% Controlled by Democrats No opinion Controlled by Republicans House Retirements: 20 Republican and 10 Democratic Members of Congress have announced that they are retiring from their seats in 2018. Sources: Washington Post, October 20, 2017 24 Public Opinion Landscape November 8, 2017 Would you rather see the next Congress controlled by the Democrats, to act as a check on Trump, or controlled by the Republicans, to support Trump’s agenda?
- 25. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GP G R e s e a r c h GPG has a full-service research team offering a full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion, as well as digital, research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns. GPG has extensive experience conducting research on complex issues and political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Adam Slater (aslater@gpg.com)