GPG’s Initial Post Election Analysis

Election 2016
Initial Post-Election Analysis
November 9, 2016

PAGE 2
E L E C TI ON O V E R VIE W
• Online Landscape
• Landscape: Lead-Up To The Election
• Presidential Results: What happened?
• Presidential Results: How did it happen?
• Congressional Results: What happened?
• Gubernatorial and Ballot Measure Results: What happened?
• Looking Ahead: On the Issues

PAGE 3
I N I T I AL H E A DL INE S
• Trump’s win represents astunning upset, going against the vast majority of public polling
predictions and every major political forecast.
• Clinton will likely winthe national popular vote. This will be the fifthtimeit has happened in
presidential history.
• Clinton was unable to recreatethe Obama voter coalition.
• She fell significantly short of expectations across a range of demographic groups that helped elect
Barack Obama in 2008 & 2012, indicating the party base was not as energized by Clinton than by
Obama.
• She saw key losses in several rust belt states (OH, PA, WI) usually carried by Democrats.
Source: Cook Political Report, NPR, The Fix

PAGE 4
I N I T I AL H E A DL INE S
• Trump overwhelmingly wonwhites without college degrees, while maintainingthe support of
white college graduates.
• In the end, GOP voters lined up behind Trump.
• Trump did well among voters who really didn’t likehim. Voters embracedTrump despite
large misgivings about his personality and policies.
Source: Cook Political Report, NPR, The Fix

T R U M P D O M IN ATED T H E
O N L I NE C O N VER SATI ON
L E A D I NG U P T O T H E
E L E C TI ON
• Three months ahead of the election, Donald
Trump had significantly more online mentions
than Hillary Clinton.
• 14 days ahead of election day, there were
slightly more Trump mentions online than
Clinton mentions. Despite the FBI Director
James Comey’s letter to Congress on Hillary
Clinton’s e-mails, Trump remained the most
talked about candidate ahead of election day.
Data courtesy of Brandwatch React US Presidential Election 2016

T R U M P S E N TI MEN T
M O R E P O S I TIV E P R I O R
T O T H E E L E C TIO N
• Trump has had more positive sentiment
than Hillary Clinton in online mentions
of him during the the last three months
and the last 14 days of the campaign.

3 0 , 0 0 0 T W E ET S I N A M I N U T E AT 3 A M

P O P U LA R T O P ICS T H E
M O R N IN G A F T ER
• P o p u l a r t o p i c s f r o m 9 : 1 5 A M -
1 0 : 1 5 A M E T t h e d a y a f t e r e l e c t i o n
d a y c a p t u r e s t h e e l a t i o n a n d
d i s a p p o i n t m e n t o f t h e e l e c t o r a t e .
PAGE 9Data courtesy of Brandwatch React US Presidential Election 2016

L A N D S C A P E : L E A D U P T O T H E E L E C T I O N

V O T E RS W E R E L O O K ING F O R C H A N GE
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, November 3-5, 2016
43%
54%
Someone who will bring a steady approach to the
way government operates even if it means fewer
changes to how things are now
Someone who will bring major changes to the way
government operates even if it is not possible to
predict what the changes may be
In thinking about the next president that we’ll be electing, which of the following two
statements comes closer to your point of view?

A N D T R U M P WA S V I E W ED A S A C H A N GE A G E N T; T E L LS I T L I K E I T I S
Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, October 14-17, 2016
Clinton
24%
Trump
63%
Notsure
14%
Source: CBS News Poll, October 12-16, 2016
Trump Clinton
Yes, says what he /
she believes
59% 34%
No, says what
people want to hear
37% 64%
Would change the way
Washington does business
Do you think [Hillary Clinton / Donald Trump] says
what [he/she] believes most of the time, or does he
say what [he/she] thinks people want to hear?

M O S T N AT ION AL P O L LS & M O D E LS S AW A C L I N TO N V I C TORY
Source: HuffPost Pollster, The Upshot
CLINTON
TRUMP
Clinton led in the head to head match-up
from the very start of the campaign.

P R E S I D E N T I A L R E S U L T S : W H A T H A P P E N E D ?

2 0 1 6 E L E C TI ON R E S U LTS ( S O FA R )
O
R
A
K
K
Y
N
M
M
N
C
O
G
A
N
H
18
3
29
20
3
12
7
55
6
4
3
6
11
5
9
3
3
5
3
4
38
6
7
10
6
10
6
8
6 9 16
29
9
15
13
11
20 11
10
16
8
5
RI
4
NJ
15
CT
7
DE
3
MD
10
DC
3
MA
12
Clinton
228
Trump
290
Party change from ‘12
VT
3
NH
4
1
Not yet decided
(MI & NH)

C L I N TON A P P EA RS P O I S ED T O W I N T H E N AT I O NAL P O P UL AR V O T E
Source Washington Post, History Channel
Clinton
59,740,000
47.7%
Trump
59,520,000
47.5%
• Only 4 times in U.S. history has a candidate won the presidency without winning the popular
vote: (2000 Bush, 1888 Harrison, 1876 Hayes, 1824 Quincy Adams)
• It’s occurred twice in the past 16 years

PAGE 17
T H E E L E C TO RAL M A P
• Trump pickedup 5 states from Obamain 2012 (Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin,
Iowa) (6 if Michiganis called).
A littlehistory…
• Trump pickedup 1 electoral voteout of Maine (ME-2), thefirst timea Republican has won
anythingout of the northeast in sixteenyears.
• Trump has won the most electoral votes for a Republican sinceReagan in 1984.
• This is the first timesince1984 that a Republicanpresidential candidatehas won Michigan(if
called), WisconsinandPennsylvaniacombined.

A R E C A P O F 2 0 1 2 E L E C T ION
O
R
A
K
K
Y
N
M
M
N
C
O
G
A
N
H
18
4
29
20
3
12
7
55
6
4
3
6
11
5
9
3
3
5
3
4
38
6
7
10
6
10
6
8
6 9 16
29
9
15
13
11
20 11
10
16
8
5
VT
3
RI
4
NJ
15
CT
7
DE
3
MD
10
DC
3
MA
12
NH
4
Obama
332
Romney
206
Party change from ‘08

A R E C A P O F 2 0 0 8 E L E C T ION
O
R
A
K
K
Y
N
M
M
N
C
O
G
A
20
4
31
21
3
11
7
55
5
4
3
5
10
5
9
3
3
4
3
4
38
6
7
10
7
11
6
9
6 9 15
27
8
15
13
11
21 11
10
17
8
5
VT
3
RI
4
NJ
15
CT
7
DE
3
MD
10
DC
3
MA
12
NH
4
1
Obama
365
McCain
173

P R E S I D E N T I A L R E S U L T S : H O W D I D I T H A P P E N ?

PAGE 21
T U R N OUT WA S D O W N
• 55.6% of eligible voters voted(initial estimate)
• Lowest turnout since 2000 (54.2%), theother popular vote/electoral collegesplit year.
• Trump won with 59.4 millionvotes. Mitt Romney received 60.9millionvotes and lost.
• 18 millionfewer voters than in 2012.

PAGE 22
L A R G ES T R E C ORD ED G E N DE R G A P
Source: Exit Polls
2004 2008 2012 2016
Women +3 D +13 D +11 D +12 D
Men +11 R +1 D +7 R +12 R
Gender Gap 14-points 12-points 18-points 24-points

PAGE 23
W H I T E V O T E H A S D R O P PED S I N C E 2 0 0 4 , B U T I N T H E E N D I T
D I D N ’ T M ATT ER
Source: Exit Polls
% of Electorate
2004 2008 2012 2016
White 77% 74% 72% 70%
Black 12% 13% 13% 12%
Hispanic/Latino 8% 8% 10% 11%
Spread
2004 2008 2012 2016
White +17R +12R +20R +21R
Black +77D +91D +87D +80D
Hispanic/Latino +9D +36D +44D +36D
• Hispanic vote is a growing part of the
electorate but they didn’t turn out for
Clinton like they did for Obama in
2012
• African American vote slightly down,
but more so in key states like North
Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania

PAGE 24
T R U M P O V E RWHE LMI NGLY W O N L E S S E D U CAT ED W H I T ES
Source: Exit Polls
Vote by Education and Race
Clinton Trump
Whitecollege-grad women (20%) 51% 45% +6D
Whitenon-college women (17%) 34% 62% +28R
Whitecollege-grad men (17%) 39% 54% +15R
Whitenon-college men (17%) 23% 72% +49R

PAGE 25
M I L L E NNIA L T U RN OUT M AT CHE D 2 0 1 2 , B U T F E L L S H O RT O F
O B A M A’ S N U M BER S
Source: Exit Polls
% of Electorate
2004 2008 2012 2016
18-29 17 18 19 19
30-44 29 29 27 25
45-64 30 37 38 40
65+ 24 16 16 15
Spread
2004 2008 2012 2016
18-29 +9D +34D +23D +18D
30-44 +7R +6D +7D +8D
45-64 +3R +1D +4R +9R
65+ +8R +8R +12R +8R
The decrease in Millennial support for
Clinton may be due to the increase in
their support for third party candidate
Gary Johnson
Millennial turnout was at the same
level as previous elections –
However, their support for the
Democratic ticket was lower

PAGE 26
E C O N OMY V I E W ED A S M O S T I M P ORTA NT; T R UM P B E T TER A B L E T O
H A N D LE I T
Source: Exit Polls
Most Important
Issue
Clinton Trump Margin
The
Economy
52% 52% 42% +10 D
Terrorism 18% 39% 57% +18 R
Foreign
Policy
13% 60% 34% +26 D
Immigration 13% 32% 64% +32 R
Trump was
viewed as better
able to handle
the economy,
49% to 46%

PAGE 27
C L I N TON W I N S O N N E A R LY A L L T R A I TS E X C E PT T H E O N E T H AT
M AT T ERE D T H E M O S T
Source: Exit Polls
Can bring change 39%
Spread
+69R
Total
Right experience
Cares about people like me
+82D
Good judgment
21%
20%
15%
+40D
+23D

PAGE 28
T R U M P W I N S V O T E RS W H O A R E A N G R Y A N D D I S S ATI SFI ED W I T H
T H E F E D E R AL G O V ERN MENT
5%
24%
46%
23%
Enthusiastic
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Angry
Clinton Trump
78% 20%
75% 20%
45% 49%
18% 77%
Source: Exit Polls

PAGE 29
T R U M P P I C K ED U P M O R E L AT E- DEC IDE RS
When did you finally decidefor whom to votein the presidential election?
% Spread
Last few days 8 +2 R
Last week 6 +12 R
In October 12 +14 R
In September 13 +4 R
Before September 60 +7 D
Source: Exit Polls

I F T H E Y D I D N’ T L I K E E I T H ER C A N DID ATE, T H E Y V O T ED F O R
T R U M P
Among voters who view both Clinton and Trump unfavorably, Trump won nearly half of their vote.
29%
49%
ClintonTrump

C O N G R E S S I O N A L R E S U L T S : W H A T H A P P E N E D ?

Democrats: 46* Republicans: 54
*Two independents caucus
with Democrats
PAGE 32
2 0 1 6 S E N ATE: P R E- ELE CTI ON – R A C E S I N P L AY
K
Y
G
A
2016 map
favored the
Democrats

S E N ATE P O S T-E LEC TIO N: D E M O CRATS P I C K U P T W O S E AT S A S
R E P U BL ICA NS R E TAI N C O N TR OL
O
R
K
Y
N
M
M
N
C
O
G
A
N
H
FL
PA
WI
NV
Johnson: 50.2%
Feingold: 46.8%
Toomey: 48.9%
McGinty: 47.2%
Rubio: 52.1%
Murphy: 44.2%
Cortez Masto: 47.1%
Heck: 44.7% NC
Burr: 51.1%
Ross: 45.3%
Source: CNN
PAGE 33
MO
Hassan: 48.0%
Ayotte: 47.9%
Blunt: 49.4%
Kander: 46.2%
IN
Young: 52.2%
Bayh: 42.0%
IL
Duckworth: 54.4%
Kirk: 40.2%
Democrats: 48
Republicans: 51
(Louisiana votes in a run-off election)

PAGE 34
H O U S E R E S U LTS: R E P UB LIC ANS S U F F ERE D F E W L O S S ES
Source: CNN
Democrats Republicans
Pre-Election 188 247
Gains / Losses +5 -9
Results* 193 238
*4 Seats Still Undecided
• 43 retirements heading into election (25 R, 18 D)
• 7 incumbents lost (6 R, 1 D)

S T A T E R E S U L T S : W H A T H A P P E N E D ?

Democrats: 18 Republicans: 31 Independents: 1
PAGE 36
2 0 1 6 G O V E RNO RSHI PS: P R E -EL ECTI ON – R A C E S I N P L AY
K
Y
G
A

2 0 1 6 G O V E RNO RSHI PS: P O S T-E LEC TION
K
Y
G
A
Democrats: 16 Republicans: 33 Independents: 1
Republicans:
+2

B A L L O T M E A SURE S 2 0 1 6 :
¨ Marijuana
- Medical Marijuana:
• Arkansas – Pass
• Florida – Pass
• Montana – Pass
• North Dakota – Pass
- Recreational Marijuana
• Arizona – Fail
• California – Pass
• Massachusetts – Pass
• Maine – To Be Determined
• Nevada – Pass
¨ Minimum Wage
- Increase Minimum Wage
• Arizona – Pass
• Colorado – Pass
• Maine – Pass
• Washington – Pass
- Decrease Minimum Wage for those
under 18
• South Dakota – Fail
¨ Gun Control
- Increase Background Checks
• California – Pass
• Maine – Fail
• Nevada – Pass
• Washington – Pass

B A L L O T M E A SURE S 2 0 1 6 :
¨ Education
- Alaska: Funding Postsecondary
Student Loans – Fail
- California:Modernizing K-12,Charter,
and Vocational Schools – Pass
- Georgia:State Intervention in Failing
Schools – Fail
- Massachusetts: Funding New Charter
Schools – Fail
- Oklahoma:State Funding for Public
Schools – Fail
- Oregon: DropoutPrevention and
Career Readiness Programs in High
Schools – Pass
¨ Healthcare
- California:Fee on Hospitals to Fund
Coverage of Uninsured Patients –
Pass
- California:Drug Price Standards –
Fail
- Colorado:Assisted Suicide– Pass
- Colorado:Creation of Universal
Healthcare System through taxes –
Fail
- Nevada:Sales Tax Exemption of
some Medical Equipment– Pass
¨ Death Penalty
- California:Repealing the Death
Penalty – Fail
- Oklahoma:Establishing the Death
Penalty – Pass

L O O K I N G A H E A D O N T H E I S S U E S ?

H O T I S S U ES F O R N E W C O N GR ESS: V I E WS O F G O V E RN MENT
Source:
2004 2008 2012 2016
Government should do more
to solve problems
46% 51% 43% 45%
Government is doing too
many things better left to
businesses and individuals
49% 43% 51% 50%

H O T I S S U ES F O R N E W C O N GR ESS: I M M I GRATI ON
Source:
Clinton Trump
Offered a chance to apply
for legal status (70%)
60% 34%
Deported to the country
they came from (25%)
14% 84%
Illegal immigrants working in the United States should be:
Clinton Trump
Support (41%) 10% 86%
Oppose (54%) 76% 17%
View of U.S. wall along the entire Mexican border:

H O T I S S U ES F O R N E W C O N GR ESS: H E A LTH C A R E
Source:
Clinton Trump
Did not go far enough (30%) 78% 18%
Was about right (18%) 82% 10%
Went to far (47%) 13% 83%
View on Obamacare:

H O T I S S U ES F O R N E W C O N GR ESS: I N T E RNATI ONAL T R A DE
Source:
Clinton Trump
Creates U.S. jobs (38%) 59% 35%
Takes away U.S. jobs (42%) 31% 65%
Does not affect jobs (11%) 63% 30%
Effect of international trade:

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methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our
clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
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GPG’s Initial Post Election Analysis

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