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Macro Analytics 03-09-13 - Hyperinflation w/ Ty Andros
1. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
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2. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
Gordon T Long
GordonTLong.com
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3. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
Ty Andros
Tedbits.com
Traderview.com
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
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slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
4. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
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5. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
NO FIAT CURRENCY HAS EVER SURVIVED
56 Episodes of Hyperinflation
NOT UNCOMMON – Always Stems from Poor Public Policy
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6. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
A CURRENCY EVENTS: Historically Stem from Currency Debasement
CURRENCY WARS are about Currency Debasement
May be an Old Game, but it is a New World:
Fiat Currency Regimes
Sovereign Debt Levels
Total Global Debt Levels (Public & Private)
“Unlimited’ / “Uncapped” Monetary Policies
World Trade Organization (WTO)
Universal Problem due to Globalization
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
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slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
7. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
8. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
HYPERINFLATION
In 1956, Phillip Cagan wrote The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation, generally regarded as the first serious
study of hyperinflation and its effects. In it, he defined a hyperinflationary as starting in the month that the
monthly inflation rate exceeds 50%, and it ending when the monthly inflation rate drops below 50% and stays
that way for at least a year.[3] Economists usually follow Cagan’s description that hyperinflation occurs when the
monthly inflation rate exceeds 50%.[4]
The International Accounting Standards Board does not establish an absolute rate at which hyperinflation is
deemed to arise. Instead, it lists factors that indicate the existence of hyperinflation:[5]
The general population prefers to keep its wealth in non-monetary assets or in a relatively stable foreign
currency. Amounts of local currency held are immediately invested to maintain purchasing power
The general population regards monetary amounts not in terms of the local currency but in terms of a
relatively stable foreign currency. Prices may be quoted in that currency;
Sales and purchases on credit take place at prices that compensate for the expected loss of purchasing
power during the credit period, even if the period is short;
Interest rates, wages, and prices are linked to a price index; and
The cumulative inflation rate over three years approaches, or exceeds, 100%.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
9. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
10. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
11. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
Why hasn’t Hyperinflation already arrived?
“This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it
lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered
money relation. There are still people in the country who have not yet become
aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will
finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise
will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still
believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their
purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas
are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to
abandon its inflationary policy.”
- Ludwig Von Mises
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
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12. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
13. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
14. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
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15. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
Lack of CONFIDENCE
A Degree of Fear
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16. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
17. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
18. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
ARGENTINA
1. Nationalized Private Pensions, plundering the retirement savings of her people.
2. Increased Tax Rates across the board-- income, VAT, import duties, etc. as well as imposed a new wealth tax.
3. Inflated Argentina's Money Supply, printing currency with wanton abandon; M2 money supply has increased
215% in the past three years.
4. Currency Devaluation - Driven the value and purchasing power of the currency down by 50%. Street-level
inflation is now 30%+ per year.
5. Economic Reporting - Made a mockery of official statistics, comically understating the level of Argentine
inflation and unemployment. She even began punishing economists for publishing private estimates of
inflation that didn't jive with the government figures.
6. Nationalization - Taken over control of one industry after another, most notably the nationalization of
Spanish oil firm YPF's Argentine assets.
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
19. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
ARGENTINA
7. Imposed Export Controls of agriculture products from beef to grains, forcing growers to sell at artificially
lower domestic prices.
8. Imposed Capital Controls, reducing her citizens' capability to dump their poorly performing currency and
hold gold, dollars, Euros, or anything else.
9. Price Controls - Imposed a two month 'price freeze' on items in the supermarket, and encouraged retail
consumers to rat out any grocer that doesn't abide by the government order.
10. Media Controls - Imposed controls over the media, most recently ordered an advertising ban in Argentine
newspapers (weakening their financial position).
Currency Wars Lead to Price Controls Which Leads to CONTROLS
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slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
20. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
21. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
For High inflation to transition to hyperinflation REAL wealth
creation must collapse as you saw in Zimbabwe, Weimar
Germany and as you see in Argentina and Venezuela TODAY!
The DEVELOPED world is just a step or two behind them but rapidly following the SAME PATH!
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
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22. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
Why hasn’t hyperinflation already arrived?
Money Velocity Explodes HIGHER During Hyperinflation
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
23. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
Currency Wars are in full BLOOM around the GLOBE!
Thirty Eight countries are trying to “Beggar thy Neighbor” their way to devalue their
currencies to gather what little economic activity is being created worldwide.
Currencies don’t FLOAT, They just SINK at different rates!
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
24. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
What is real Money? Bretton Woods II a semi sound
monetary system was converted to a FIAT currency and
credit based currency and monetary system
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
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25. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
What causes Hyperinflation?
The greatest transfer of wealth from those that hold/store it in paper to those that don’t
is underway!
UNSOUND MONEY: Master thread of economic, societal and currency/financial system
destruction!
Throughout history Fiat currency and credit systems have failed upon the greed and avarice
of those who controlled them and this episode will be no different.
The currency and bomb…er…bond markets are GROUND ZERO of the unfolding Societal and
financial system destruction. The money printed to date will be dwarfed by what is to come.
This is the greatest OPPORTUNITY in HISTORY for applied Austrian investing and the demise
of the KEYNESIAN PONZI model.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
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26. Macro Analytics
March 9th, 2013
HYPERINFLATION: A Currency Event
Ty Andros
Tedbits.com
Traderview.com
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
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slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
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