A talk at the University of Victoria, October 6, 2014. How soon could British Columbia become a world leader in embracing 100% renewable energy? What will it take for electricity, heat, transport - and political will?

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Burning fossil fuels
and destroying Earth’s forests
Is causing THIS

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7. The current increase in global warming is
"...equivalent to exploding 400,000 Hiroshima
atomic bombs per day, 365 days per year. That’s
how much extra energy Earth is gaining each day.”
- James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist
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The last time the world
was 3°C warmer,
during the Pliocene era,
the global sea level was up to
25 metres
higher

9. http://flood.firetree.net
Guy Dauncey 2014
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If global warming exceeds
1.6°C
up to
31%
of Earth’s species
will be committed to
extinction,
having nowhere to go
to escape the rising heat

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Ireland’s great winter storm of 2014
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GDP =
Gross
Depletion
of the
Planet

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29. The power
of our vision
must be stronger than
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the power
of our fears

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Two Possible
Futures
One YES
One NO

31. The Skeptic’s Fear of Life without Oil
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?

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Which path
will you
take?
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34. “The future belongs to those who believe
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in the beauty of their dreams.”
― Eleanor Roosevelt
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35. So what is our vision of
a beautiful, desirable future?
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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36. Saying YES
as well as NO
Solar, Wind, Wave
100% Renewables
Green Buildings
Green Cities
Cycling
Electric Transit
Electric Cars
Carsharing
Organic Farming
EcoForestry
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Green Chemistry
Biomimicry
Smart Tech
Education
Innovation
Software
Robotics
3-D Printing
Soul & Eco-Tourism
Holistic Healthcare

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38. Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia
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BCSEA 2013
www.bcsea.org

39. Germany’s Path Towards 100% Renewable
Energy Regions, with Beate Fischer
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We do not need to
hate or vilify fossil fuels.
They have been amazing.
We should praise them,
and then end the affair.

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The Sun is everywhere,
but for the past five million years,
all we could do
was look at it.
Guy Dauncey 2009
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42. For 500,000 years, we harvested the
Sun’s energy through firewood
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Guy Dauncey 2009
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We wanted energy,
But we did not know how
to gather it directly from the Sun.
But then we discovered fossil fuels.

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It was fossil fuels
that launched the Industrial Age,
and the modern world.

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It is fossilized solar energy
that has made advanced engineering,
solar PV and electric vehicles possible.

46. The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the essential
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LAUNCH RAMP
for the Solar Age
500,000 years
Firewood
300 years
Fossil Fuels
1,750,000,000 years
Solar Energy

47. For the next 1,750,000,000 years, we will
be able to harvest the Sun’s energy
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directly through advanced
solar technologies

48. The Age of
Firewood
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The Age of
Fossil Fuels
The Solar Age

49. The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
A billion years
That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years
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50. The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
A billion years
And with every passing year,
solar technology will improve
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and fall in price.

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56. Could
B.C.
Become
a 100%
Renewable
Energy Region?
PART 1:
ELECTRICITY
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57. BC Hydro’s Power 2014, GWh
BC Hydro dams 43,000 72%
IPP Hydro dams 4,911 8%
IPP Run-of-River hydro 3,535 6%
IPP Natural Gas 3,140 5%
IPP Biomass 2,505 4%
IPP Wind 1,337 2%
IPP Garbage incineration 131
IPP Biogas 91
TOTAL 59,000
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Not included: FortisBC, Municipal Utilities
IPP = Independent Power Producer

58. Fossil Fuels - Natural Gas:
Island Generation, Campbell River
Contracted until 2022
275 MW
2,300 GWh a year
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59. BC Hydro Dams: 43,000 GWh a year
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= 73% of BC’s power

60. Assumed savings by 2025 from
energy efficiency & conservation
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13,000 GWh pa

61. New Electricity Supply needed by 2025:
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23,600 GWh
Source: CanWEA

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BC’s wind
energy
potential
Onshore: 39,000 GWh
Offshore: 59,000 GWh
WINDVISION 2025:
5250 MW by 2025
= 14,500 GWh pa
CanWEA

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Solar PV

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Price of Solar PV
per Watt
1977: $77
1997: $7
2013: $0.7
A hundredfold fall
in the price of solar PV
since 1977

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Mass production = falling prices

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100 GW
in 2012
Solar PV 7000% increase
since 2000
137 GW
in 2013

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68. Guy Dauncey 2014
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69. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.Kcomagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan

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71. Guy Dauncey 2014
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72. Guy Dauncey 2014
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74. Solar Economics in BC, 2014
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$4 a watt
12 cents kwh, 3% per year increase
3% finance
Cost per watt $4
4 kW + tax $16,800
Finance @ 3%$29,300
kWh per year 4,400
25-year savings $21,900
Result -$7,400

75. Solar Economics in BC, 2020
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$1.60 a watt
15.5 cents kwh, 3% per year increase
Cash down
Cost per kW $1,600
4 kW + 5% tax $6,720
kWh per year 4,400
25 year savings $25,600
Profit +$19,000

76. By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW solar
could lose its owner up to $1,000 a year
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78. By 2020, every commercial roof that is not
solar could lose its owner $10,000 a year
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79. Solar Potential in BC, 2025
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7,000 GWh pa

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Natural gas:
5 jobs per $1 million
Solar:
14.5 jobs per
$1 million
Building Retrofits:
17 jobs per $1 million
Mass Transit:
22 jobs per $1 million

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Dan Kammen &
Ditlev Engel
Copenhagen
Climate Council
2009

82. Potential Direct Solar Jobs in BC
7,000 GWh x 0.91 = 6,370 jobs
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83. Wave, Tidal, Geothermal Power
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84. POLICY – WHAT’S NEEDED?
Current Policy:
2010: 93% of BC’s power must be clean or
renewable
2012 : BC Government defines natural gas as
“clean”
What’s needed:
•By 2022, 100% of BC’s power must be clean
and renewable
•Phase out natural gas-fired power by 2022
•Increase commitment to energy conservation
and efficiency
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85. Could
B.C.
Become
a 100%
Renewable
Energy Region?
PART 2:
BUILDINGS
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OIL

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OIL

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94. Planned Natural Gas Pipelines in BC
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Watershed Sentinel

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The Red
Blower
Door
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96. Rolling in the Pink
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97. Saving Energy – Happy to be a HERO
Up Guy Dauncey 2014
to $1,000 for basement insulation
Earthfuture.com

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Internal wall insulation
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99. Solar Air Source Heat Pump
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Geothermal
Ground-source
Geo-exchange
Heat Pump

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Geothermal Heat Pump
Austrian radial-drilling
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104. Stabilized Insulated Rammed Earth
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SIREWALL R-50

105. SIREWALL insulates 13.5 times more than a
concrete wall of the same thickness;
5.5 times more than a rammed earth wall.
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WE CAN ACHIEVE
90%
HEAT ENERGY
REDUCTION
IN NEW HOMES
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www.earthfuture.com Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com

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16" foam insulation under slab and
outside foundation walls
8” studs, 24” OC with plywood and OSB
EuroLine Windows fiberglass/UPVC
triple-glazed U= 0.73
Air tightness 0.6 ACH at 50 pa.
(1.6 for R2000; up to 10 older homes)
Blown cellulose insulation
Heat recovery ventilation: 90% exhaust
heat transferred to incoming fresh air
Natural gas hot water, space heat

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= 4.3% more www.earthfuture.com

112. Solar Thermal District Heating
Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta
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113. Guy Dauncey 2014
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800
solar hot water
panels
on the garages
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90% of residential space
heating needs met by solar
thermal energy (40-50o C)
Reduction - 5 tonnes of
greenhouse gas emissions
per home per year.

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Solar Thermal Heating
12 months a year
The Energy Centre
Community
solar heat
panels
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Solar hot water
panels

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116. Year-round solar thermal heating
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Germany
www.wagner-solar.com

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Sweden, Stockholm
Treated sewage effluent heats 80,000 apartments

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120. POLICY – WHAT’S NEEDED?
Current Policy:
Building Code. Small energy conservation
incentives. That’s it.
What’s needed:
•All houses to upgrade to new energy code at
point of sale (as Berkeley, San Francisco)
•All apartment buildings and condos to audit
for energy efficiency every ten years
•Major incentives for zero carbon upgrades
•By 2020, all new buildings to be zero carbon
(as UK, California)
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121. Could
B.C.
Become
a 100%
Renewable
Energy
Region?
PART 3:
TRANSPORTATION
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For all Light Transport,
100% Renewable Energy is Possible

123. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Istanbul,
Turkey

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Seoul, South Korea

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Brooklyn Bridge Remix/Redux
Terreform and Michael Sorkin Studio

133. London: a Garden Bridge across the Thames
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Thomas Heatherwick

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135. Guy Dauncey 2014
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136. In Holland, cycling is the main mode of
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transport for 31% of the people

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140. Guy Dauncey 2014
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141. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Granville Street Bridge
Vancouver’s Imagined Future

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Electric Bikes

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149. Guy Dauncey 2014
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152. Guy Dauncey 2014
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153. Guy Dauncey 2014
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OLEV
On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

155. Electric Light Trail Transit
Mulhouse, Germany
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156. Guy Dauncey 2014
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157. Four people in Beijing
Five people in Vancouver
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158. 5% Trip Shift to Ride-Sharing
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159. See
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Shift to Car Sharing

160. Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing
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Vehicle owners earn up to
$300 a month

161. North America car-sharing forecast
4.4 million users by 2016
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David Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan

162. Sustainable urban design for walking,
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cycling and transit

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165. Suburban streets being calmed and reclaimed
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166. Suburban streets being calmed and reclaimed
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167. Fast, dangerous streets being slowed
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www.earthfuture.com www.restreets.org

168. Fast, dangerous streets being slowed
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www.earthfuture.com www.restreets.org

169. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com Interim Shift to Plug-In Hybrids

170. By 2030, 100% Electric Cars
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and Light Trucks

171. Top
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Hiroko EV

172. Top
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173. Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range
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174. Tesla Model X: 300-400 km range
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175. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Nissan 2014 e-NV200

176. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Nissan Leaf Electric Pick-Up
D-I-Y Conversion

177. Honda solar electric car charging
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178. Guy Dauncey 2014
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179. No tax, saving $4,000.
Annual driving fee 7 x cheaper than a regular car.
No parking charges anywhere in Norway.
No ferry charges, no road tolls around Oslo.
Allowed to drive in the bus lanes.
Free municipal EV recharging.
Electricity $10 a week vs $55 for a regular car.
Overall savings $369 a month.
21 models to choose from.
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180. The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries
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181. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Interim: Hybrid Trucks
VIA Motors V-Trux

182. Guy Dauncey 2014
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More Hybrid Trucks
GM Silverado
GM Sierra

183. POLICY – WHAT’S NEEDED?
Current Policy:
•BC follows California low carbon fuel
standard
•Plug-In BC incentives for electric vehicles &
charging posts. Now ended.
What’s needed:
•Major incentives for electric vehicles
•New vehicles: 95 grams CO2 per kilometre by
2020; 50g/km by 2025; 0g/km by 2030
•Major investments in walking, transit, bike-lanes
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184. Could
B.C.
Become
a 100%
Renewable
Energy
Region?
PART 4:
TRUCKING,
SHIPS & PLANES
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185. Guy Dauncey 2014
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186. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com PACCAR Plug-In Hybrid Trucks

187. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Peterbilt Plug-In Hybrid
Garbage Truck

188. Long Distance Electric Freight
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Dutch concept electric truck
Average 18-wheeler 6.5 mpg
Super-efficient designs 9 mpg

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Long Distance Freight
?
2032
Electric Hydrogen Biofuel

190. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Long Distance Freight
2032
EV Trucks not ready
Biofuels questionable
Hydrogen not happening

191. With difficulty: and a long way off
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Ocean Shipping

192. With difficulty: and a long way off
Future Boeing Liquid Hydrogwewwn.ear thPfutulrae.conm e
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Flying

193. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Possible Future Freight
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194. Could
B.C.
Become
a 100%
Renewable
Energy
Region?
PART 5:
WHAT WILL IT
TAKE?
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195. Guy Dauncey 2014
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WHAT WILL IT TAKE
TO CLIMB THE MOUNTAIN?

196. Guy Dauncey 2014
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ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
WORKING TOGETHER

197. Guy Dauncey 2014
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ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
Visionary NGO Leaders
WORKING TOGETHER

198. Guy Dauncey 2014
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ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
Visionary NGO Leaders
Visionary Municipal Leaders
WORKING TOGETHER

199. Guy Dauncey 2014
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ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
Visionary NGO Leaders
Visionary Municipal Leaders
Visionary Business Leaders
WORKING TOGETHER

200. Guy Dauncey 2014
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ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
Visionary NGO Leaders
Visionary Municipal Leaders
Visionary Business Leaders
Visionary Financial Leaders
WORKING TOGETHER

201. Guy Dauncey 2014
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ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
Visionary NGO Leaders
Visionary Municipal Leaders
Visionary Business Leaders
Visionary Financial Leaders
Visionary Academic Leaders
WORKING TOGETHER

202. Guy Dauncey 2014
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ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
Visionary NGO Leaders
Visionary Municipal Leaders
Visionary Business Leaders
Visionary Financial Leaders
Visionary Academic Leaders
Visionary Provincial Leaders
WORKING TOGETHER

203. Guy Dauncey 2014
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ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
Visionary NGO Leaders
Visionary Municipal Leaders
Visionary Business Leaders
Visionary Financial Leaders
Visionary Academic Leaders
Visionary Provincial Leaders
Visionary Federal Leaders
WORKING TOGETHER

204. Guy Dauncey 2014
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ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
Visionary NGO Leaders
Visionary Municipal Leaders
Visionary Business Leaders
Visionary Financial Leaders
Visionary Academic Leaders
Visionary Provincial Leaders
Visionary Federal Leaders
Visionary Voters
WORKING TOGETHER

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206. Action Sheet Available at the BCSEA Booth
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207. THE CLIMATE CRISIS…
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Think Globally,
VOTE
LOCALLY
On November 15th, in BC’s Civic Elections
BRING IT HOME

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209. www.bcsea.org/SmallTownClimateSoluti
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ons

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Local Municipal Elections
November 2015

211. Richard Atwell Colin Plant Fred Haynes Shawn Newby
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Local Municipal Elections
November 2015

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Local Municipal Elections
November 2015

214. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Coming Soon

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Coming Soon

217. BEYOND CAPITALISM…
A Flourishing Green Co-operative Economy
Benefit Corporations
Green Business Certification
Public Banking
Basic Income
Values-Based Banking
Microlending
Community Currencies
An Entrepreneurial State
Green Bonds
The Sharing Economy
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Carbon Taxes
Genuine Progress Indicators
Local Business Synergy
Cooperatives
Youth Businesses & Coops
First Nations Businesses
Minority Businesses
Serious Tax Reform
Closure of Tax Havens
Targeted Growth vs no-growth

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$5
Special
Price

219. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
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Fall
2014

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221. Together, we can change the world
If you feel inspired, join the BCSEA
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www.bcsea.org/join

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HOW SOON
Do you think it is possible?
1. By 2025
2. By 2035
3. By 2050
4. Never

223. www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
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Dream it
Wish it
Do it

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Josephine Wall
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www.josephinewall.co.uk

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231. If you want to make a difference,
now would be a great time to do so.
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232. www.earthfuture.com
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