Provides a critical overview of the economic state of the Australian printing industry by industry guru and commentator Hagop Tchamkertenian.

1. 1313thth
Forum of Asian Pacific Graphic ArtsForum of Asian Pacific Graphic Arts
1
FAPGA
AUSTRALIA COUNTRY REPORT
February –March 2013 | IndiaFebruary –March 2013 | India
Economic Trends
Prepared by: Hagop Tchamkertenian
National Manager for Policy & Government Affairs
Printing Industries Association of Australia

2. •Printing Industry growth has
been extremely volatile over
the past decade
• During the past decade the
industry has experienced 5
economic downturns
• The only time the
Australian economy came
close to a recession was
during the period of the GFC
• 24.0 per cent printing
industry contraction reported
during the GFC
Economic Trends - AustraliaEconomic Trends - Australia
FAPGA

3. •During the GFC the rate
increased but government
intervention via fiscal stimulus
packages and supportive
monetary policy prevented it
from rising to higher levels
• Recent period shows a
slight upward trend
• While at 5.4 per cent it
remains the envy of the
industrialised world it does
pose some policy challenges
Economic Trends - AustraliaEconomic Trends - Australia
FAPGA

4. •Headline inflation
plummeted during
December 2012 quarter
• Headline rate remains
below RBA’s upper target
range of 3 per cent
• Underlying inflation is at
the lower end of RBA’s
inflation target band of 2-3
per cent
Economic Trends - AustraliaEconomic Trends - Australia
FAPGA

5. • The gap between private
and public sector wages has
been eliminated
• The All sector index has
started to trend down
• For printing businesses
labour costs are the second
highest cost component
after material costs
• With unemployment
remaining relatively low any
increased demand for labour
will exert upward pressures
on wages
Economic Trends - AustraliaEconomic Trends - Australia
FAPGA

6. •Retail trade is an important
driver of activity for the
printing industry
• The post GFC period has
been soft
• The last 6 months have
been very weak due to
consumers repaying off debt
and continued uncertainty
about economic prospects
Economic Trends - AustraliaEconomic Trends - Australia
FAPGA

7. •The Australian dollar has
been a star performer in
the post GFC period
• Significant appreciation
recorded against major
international currencies
• Being a commodity based
currency it has benefited
from the commodity boom
• Positives and negatives
for the printing industry
from a stronger exchange
rate
Economic Trends - AustraliaEconomic Trends - Australia
FAPGA

8. • Moving towards lower carbon economy - the Carbon Tax/Emissions Trading Scheme is
now in operation for 8 months
• Ageing population – future labour supply issues, taxation and pension expenditure
• Moving people into productive work opportunities – almost 800,000 people are currently
on disability pension
• Post GFC period characterised by subdued consumption expenditure – consumers are
reducing their debts and are reluctant to spend big due to an increasingly uncertain
economic environment
• Two speed and sometimes three speed economy
• Danger of wasting the proceeds of the “resources boom”
• High Australian dollar hurting export and import competing sectors
• Headline and underlying inflation under control may help moderate wages
Economic Issues FacingEconomic Issues Facing
AustraliaAustralia
FAPGA

9. • When all the components of the “broader” industry are included, the pulp, paper, printing
and publishing industry is a significant contributor to the Australian economy.
Economic Profile – AustralianEconomic Profile – Australian
PrintingPrinting
FAPGA

10. • A breakdown of printing
industry shows that it is
concentrated in the east-
coast
• The 3 main states of NSW,
Victoria and Qld account for
89 per cent of industry sales,
employ 86 per cent of the
workforce and pay 86 per
cent of the wages and
salaries
Economic Profile – AustralianEconomic Profile – Australian
PrintingPrinting
FAPGA

11. •The printing industry is
showing signs that it has
started to recover from the
GFC
• It remains doubtful
whether sales will ever
recover to pre-GFC levels
anytime soon
• Sales have now increased
for successive quarters
Economic Trends – AustralianEconomic Trends – Australian
PrintingPrinting
FAPGA

12. •New capital expenditure
has been very weak in
recent quarters
• Investments were brought
forward to access the
government’s investment
allowance during the GFC
• June and September 2009
quarters surge due to the
investment allowance
• March to September 2011
quarters outcomes mostly
due to bounce back effect
from low point
Economic Trends – AustralianEconomic Trends – Australian
PrintingPrinting
FAPGA

13. • Trade in printed matter
has been trending
downwards in recent
months
• Appreciating Australian
dollar has not yet caused a
surge in imports of printed
matter
• Structural issues likely the
cause – demand for printed
matter has not yet
recovered to pre-GFC levels
• Unlikely that it would either
in the short term
Economic Trends – AustralianEconomic Trends – Australian
PrintingPrinting
FAPGA

14. •In revenue terms some traditional media are growing and are forecast to continue to grow
•However because the growth rate is much lower than “emerging media”, their share of total
advertising expenditure continues to fall
•Printing businesses that rely purely on traditional forms of media face weak growth prospects
•Those targeting all media have good growth prospects
Economic Trends – AustralianEconomic Trends – Australian
MediaMedia
Source: PWC
FAPGA

15. •Printing Industries
Association of Australia
internal research shows
business confidence
remaining positive but
trending down
• However compared to
same period a year earlier,
confidence levels are
noticeably lower
• The GFC impact is also
clearly evident in the chart
Economic Trends – AustralianEconomic Trends – Australian
PrintingPrinting
FAPGA

16. • The most recent survey
results show increased idle
capacity
• Approximately 52 per
cent of survey
respondents reported to
be operating at capacity
levels of 70 per cent or
more
• The presence of idle
capacity is another reason
for the weak investment
outcome and outlook
Economic Trends – AustralianEconomic Trends – Australian
PrintingPrinting
FAPGA

17. • Capital expenditure
intentions over the six months
to June 2013 have weakened
significantly
• The fall in intentions
correlates with the reported
fall in capacity utilisation rates
Economic Trends – AustralianEconomic Trends – Australian
PrintingPrinting
FAPGA

18. •Selling prices were
reported to have fallen
once again on net
balance basis during the
December 2012 quarter
• The latest reported fall
represents the 48th
consecutive fall!
• The outlook is for further
modest falls
Economic Trends – AustralianEconomic Trends – Australian
PrintingPrinting
FAPGA

19. •Our survey shows the
great reported volatility in
net profits of the past have
given way to sustained
downward reported
movements in recent times
• Very few net balance
increases reported during
the past decade
• During the GFC period
significant margin
pressures experienced
• The intensity may have
slightly moderated but the
trend is a downward one
Economic Trends – AustralianEconomic Trends – Australian
PrintingPrinting
FAPGA

20. •After peaking in the
December 2008 quarter,
material costs started
trending downwards
• The recent period has
been associated with
increased cost pressures
but the latest quarter shows
further moderation
• Given the reported
reductions in selling prices,
any reported moderation in
material costs is a welcome
development
Economic Trends – AustralianEconomic Trends – Australian
PrintingPrinting
FAPGA

21. •The other major cost factor
wages was trending up until
the most recent quarter that
of December 2012
•The moderation in the
latest quarter may partly
due to ongoing industry
rationalisation/consolidation
which is helping up free
skilled workers
Economic Trends – AustralianEconomic Trends – Australian
PrintingPrinting
FAPGA

22. •Finance availability
started to deteriorate in
March quarter 2008 and
continues to this day
• Labour availability
increased during the
period of the GFC but
over the past 12 quarters
modest net balance falls
have been reported
Economic Trends – AustralianEconomic Trends – Australian
PrintingPrinting
FAPGA

23. • The economic
performance of commercial
printing – established
sector versus digital
printing – emerging sector
• On all key economic
measures, digital printing
sector has outperformed
the commercial printing
sector
• Most of the new
investment is also taking
place in the digital printing
sector
Economic Trends – AustralianEconomic Trends – Australian
PrintingPrinting
FAPGA

24. • The economic
performance of commercial
printing – established
sector versus digital
printing – emerging sector
• On a range of key
economic measures, digital
printing sector has
outperformed the
commercial printing sector
• Most of the new
investment is also taking
place in the digital printing
sector
Economic Trends – AustralianEconomic Trends – Australian
PrintingPrinting
FAPGA

25. Economic Trends – AustralianEconomic Trends – Australian
PrintingPrinting
• One key economic
measure that digital
printing sector has not
outperformed the
commercial printing sector
is in capacity utilisation
• Digital printing sector
continues to report lower
capacity utilisation levels
FAPGA

26. Red Issues:
• Price competition
• Commoditisation of print
• Idle capacity
• Price competition from imported
print
• Shift from hard copy to soft copy
• Reduced volumes
• Poor cash flow management
• Increased bad debts
• Lack of management skills
• Industry cooperation and trust
Issues Facing AustralianIssues Facing Australian
PrintingPrinting
Green Issues:
• Lack of investment in training
• Pace of technological change
Orange Issues:
• Environmental perceptions of
industry
• Lack of government support
• Volatile sales
• Poor image of industry amongst
school leavers
• Ageing population
• Lack of succession planning
• Increasing operational costs –
energy
• Accessing finance
• Difficulties in attracting and
training apprentices
• Moving beyond “ink on paper”
FAPGA

27. 1313thth
Forum of Asian Pacific Graphic ArtsForum of Asian Pacific Graphic Arts
27
FAPGA
AUSTRALIA COUNTRY REPORT
February – March 2013 | IndiaFebruary – March 2013 | India
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