Water related issues in the Mekong Basin and Mekong Delta, Nguyen Tat Dac

WATER RELATED ISSUES IN
THE MEKONG BASIN AND
MEKONG DELTA
By Prof. Nguyen Tat Dac
Ho Chi Minh City University of
Technology (HUTECH)

CONTENT
1. About me
2. Brief background of the Mekong Basin
and Mekong Delta
3. Some Constraints on the development
4. Water related issues:
+ Hydro power dams
+ Water Utilisation (Flood, Salinity)
+ Climate change and MSL rise
5. Development Scenarios

ABOUT ME
Full Name: Nguyen Tat Dac
Working for HUTECH as Lecturer
Expertise: + Flow water and water quality
Modelling, Project Manager,
+ Three years (2000-2003) working for MRC as
Head of Working Group 1 on Basin Modeling
and Knoeledge Base, WUP ( funded by WB)
2009 -> Now: Member of State Council for Professor
Title on Water Resources
+ Develop 1D computer program (DELTA) for flow and
water quality in river network
+ Develop 1-2D computer model for simulation of flow and
salinity in case of mean sea level rise of the MK Delta

Background
Upper
China, Myanmar
Lower Mekong Basin
Thailand
Lao PDR
Cambodia
Viet Nam
> 60 million people

Background (Continued)
Upper Basin: (China-Myanmar)
+ flow contribution: 18%
+ significant hydro-power
potential
Lower Basin:
1)- Thailand (middle): flow
contribution 18%
+ Hydropower and reservoirs
+ significant irrigation development
+ land use changes/ forestry
(impact on water quality)

Lower Basin (continued):
2)- Laos (middle): flow contribution 35%
+ Hydropower and reservoir potential
+ land use changes/ forestry
(impact on water quality)
3) Cambodia : flow contribution 18%
+ Operation of Great Lake, flood plain
innudation
+ possible hydropower developments
+ increase of irrigation
+ fish migration

WATER RELATED ISSUES FOR BASIN DEVELOPMENTS

Lower Basin (continued):
4)- Vietnam Delta: flow
contribution 11% & 5% of
the basin area.
+ a dense canal and
embankment system
+ dry season irrigation: salinity
intrusion
+ flood season: long and deep
inundation
+ affected by tide and upstream
changes
Strongly impact by climate
change and Mean Sea
Level rise

Factors govern the VN Delta development

Dense canal and embankment system

CONSTRAINTS THE MK DELTA DEVELOPMENTCONSTRAINTS THE MK DELTA DEVELOPMENT
 Flooding over an area of aboutFlooding over an area of about 11..4-14-1..99 million ha in the uppermillion ha in the upper
area of the Deltaarea of the Delta
 Salinity intrusion over an area of aboutSalinity intrusion over an area of about 11..2-12-1..66 million ha in themillion ha in the
coastal areas with saline density of overcoastal areas with saline density of over 4g/l4g/l
 Acid sulfate soils and the spread of acid water over an area ofAcid sulfate soils and the spread of acid water over an area of
aboutabout 11..00 millionmillion haha in the lowland areasin the lowland areas
 Shortage of fresh water for production and domestic usesShortage of fresh water for production and domestic uses
over an area of aboutover an area of about 22..11 million ha in areasmillion ha in areas far from rivers,far from rivers,
and close to the coastlineand close to the coastline
 Impacts of global climate change to the flow regime in theImpacts of global climate change to the flow regime in the
upstream areas, rainfall, and weather in the Mekong Delta andupstream areas, rainfall, and weather in the Mekong Delta and
threat from sea level rise from the seathreat from sea level rise from the sea..
 Lack of food security and low incomes for farmers, lack ofLack of food security and low incomes for farmers, lack of
education of farmers, rapidly increasing populationeducation of farmers, rapidly increasing population

CONSTRAINTS FOR THE MK DELTA DEVELOPMENTCONSTRAINTS FOR THE MK DELTA DEVELOPMENT
 Surface water pollution caused by agro-chemicals,Surface water pollution caused by agro-chemicals,
industrialization waste discharge, ships navigationindustrialization waste discharge, ships navigation
 Drastic changes in land use: Saline-water mangrove forests toDrastic changes in land use: Saline-water mangrove forests to
fresh-water paddy fields, from fresh-water paddy fields tofresh-water paddy fields, from fresh-water paddy fields to
brackish-water shrimp ponds (market control)brackish-water shrimp ponds (market control)
 Destruction of fertile land: Fertile land is converted toDestruction of fertile land: Fertile land is converted to
industrial zones, golf coursesindustrial zones, golf courses
 Disappearance of biodiversity : traditional ones, “floatingDisappearance of biodiversity : traditional ones, “floating
paddy” (“lúa nổi”), mangrove variety (“xoài cát”) givespaddy” (“lúa nổi”), mangrove variety (“xoài cát”) gives
excellent taste crossed with a high-yield variety but worseexcellent taste crossed with a high-yield variety but worse
tastetaste
 Flood and climate risk-related interventions: Creation ofFlood and climate risk-related interventions: Creation of
several canals, dike and embankment, large sluice gatesseveral canals, dike and embankment, large sluice gates
change flow pattern in main stream and overland flow,change flow pattern in main stream and overland flow,
increase water level.increase water level.

Dense canal and embankment system,…

Tides & impacts:
Dry season: Impact the whole
MD.
80% by the East Sea;
20% by the West Sea.
Flood season:
Impact >54% of MD.
Tide from the East Sea:
Semi-diurnal tidal.
Big amplitude (2.5-4.0 m).
Tide from the West Sea:
Mixed and liked-duirnal tidal.
Small amplitude (0.8-1.2 m).
H

Hydro-powers on the
MeKong mainstream
and in tributaries

The potential for hydropower
development in the Mekong basin
 The total potential hydropower in the four Lower Mekong
Basin countries is approximately 30,000 megawatts (MW).
Of this, 13,000 MW are on the Mekong’s mainstream,
 and the remaining potential is in the tributaries 13,000
MW on tributaries in Lao PDR,
 2,200 MW on tributaries in Cambodia and 2,000 MW on
tributaries in Viet Nam.
 only 5 percent (some 1,600 MW) of the Lower Mekong’s
hydro potential have been developed, and all projects are
on the tributaries.
 There is considerable hydro potential in the Upper
Mekong Basin. In Yunnan Province of the People’s
Republic of China, total hydro potential is an estimated
23,000 MW, and two projects, totalling 2,850 MW, have
already begun

Hydropowers
on the main
MeKong
river and in
tributaries

HCM City Mar 2017
!.
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Jia Ba
Tuo Ba
Manwan
Xiaowan
Mengsong
Ganlanba
Jinghong
Nuozhadu
Tiemenkan
Hyang Deng
Dachaoshan
Gongguaqiao
Si Chia Gang
Wu Long Long
Liu Teng Jian
CHINA
VIET NAM
MYANMAR
INDIA
China
Dams
China
Dams

Hydropower dam : Lower Sesan 2
Capacity : 400MW;Height: about 40m (from river bed)
Length: 8km; Reservoir size: 33,500ha
Estimated cost: 816 million USD; start building: 2014

POSITVE IMPACT OF HYDROPOWERS
Harnessing of a renewable natural resource
 Reducing of the negative impacts that power
generation has on the global environment (for
example, reducing the use of fossil fuels will lessen air
and water pollution)
 Increasing the river’s flow in the dry season, and
reducing peak flow during the flood season
 Increasing the availability of electrical power will
stimulate economic development and
Improve people’s living standards
Revenues will be earned from the sale of power

NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF HYDROPOWER
Adverse impacts on the ecosystem (aquatic life, animals,
birds, vegetation)
Blocking of the flow of sediment
 Negative impacts due to changing a river’s flow pattern
Negative social impacts (resettlement, loss of livelihood)
Loss of scenic landscapes (tourism potential)
Negative impacts on water quality due to storage of water
(eutrophication, lower temperatures for discharged water)
Negative impacts on other users of water (navigation,
fisheries)
Problems during the construction period (noise, vibration,
dust, traffic problems)

FLOWFLOW
Some cumulativeSome cumulative
downstreamdownstream
impacts of regulationimpacts of regulation
1) Dry season flows are1) Dry season flows are
modified to a farmodified to a far
greater extent than wetgreater extent than wet
2) The impacts on the2) The impacts on the
dry season hydrologydry season hydrology
are significant rightare significant right
down the mainstreamdown the mainstream
3) Impacts on the flood3) Impacts on the flood
season hydrology areseason hydrology are
significant until thesignificant until the
large tributaries enterlarge tributaries enter
downstream of Vientianedownstream of Vientiane

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Irrigation MapIrrigation Map

HCM City Mar 2017
Legend
WATERDMAVG
0 - 4
5 - 14
15 - 22
23 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 42
43 - 48
49 - 55
56 - 64
65 - 71
72 - 78
79 - 83
84 - 101
102 - 114
115 - 121
122 - 138
139 - 148
149 - 159
160 - 173
174 - 188
189 - 207
208 - 232
233 - 253
254 - 284
285 - 306
307 - 372
373 - 441
442 - 539
540 - 649
650 - 787
Water UsageWater Usage
MapsMaps

ISAAN High Land (North East Thailand)

AGRICULTURAL
MAP OF THE VN
DELTA

HCM City Mar 2017
FLOOD CHARACTERISTICS

Flood characteristics in the upper part of Kratie
From June to November
Highest: August
-September
Mountainous, high-land
fast downstream
Most from middle basin
Kratie

Flood characteristics in the upper part of Kratie (continued)
Ch.Saen Vientiane Muk. Pakse Kratie
June 2490 3576 7136 8906 11031
Jul 4710 7100 14299 16981 22968
Aug 6800 12330 22118 27231 36587
Sep 5630 11297 21493 27551 38671
Oct 3840 6955 12412 16790 23931
Nov 2560 4025 6228 8330 11685
Discharge during flood season

Flood characteristics in the upper part of Kratie
(continued)
Probability of flood peak occurrence
Chiang Saen Pakse Kratie
Jul 4 0 0
Aug 76 51 38
Sep 20 49 61
Oct 0 0 1
Nov 0 0 0

Flood characteristics at Kratie
Mainly from middle part
Many peaks
Peak usually in September
Highest discharges (m3/s):
+ 1937: 64400
+ 1939: 66700
+ 1961: 62400
+ 1991: 60800
+ 1996: 64600
+ 2000: 64000
Kratie

#Y
#Y#Y
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#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Snuol
Takeo
Kampot
My Tho
Pursat
Kratie
Takhmau
Ha Tien
Can Tho
Dac Min
Rach Gia
Tra Vinh
Cao Lanh
Chau Doc
Sisophon Ban Long
Vinh Long
Soc Trang
Siem Reap
Prey Veng
Krong Kaeb
Kien Luong
Long Xuyen
attambang
PHNOM PENH
Svay Rieng
Senmonorom
Stung Treng
Kampong Thom
Kampong Speu
Kampong ChamMoung Roessei
Buon Ma Thuot
Sihanoukville
Tbeng Meanchey
Kampong Chhnang
Ho Chi Minh City
Legend
Kb0_mfld_00
VALUE
No flood
0 - 0.5m
0.5 - 1.0m
1.0 - 1.5m
1.5 - 2.0m
2.0 - 2.5m
2.5 - 3.0m
3.0 - 3.5m
3.5 - 4.0m
4.0 - 5.0m
5.0 - 6.0m
6.0 - 7.0m
7.0 - 8.0m
>8.0m
0 30 60 90 12015
Kilometers
µ
Annual FloodAnnual Flood

Flood from Kratie to Vietnam-Cambodia border
Flood plains expanded in both
sides of the MK river
 Regulation of the Great Lake (%)
Flood
season
June July Aug Sep
To G.Lake 10.1 16.2 19.0 12.1
Down. 89.9 83.8 81.0 87.9
Dry Season Oct Nov Dec Jan
From G.Lake
16.0 42.7
53.2 53.8
From Kratie 84.0 57.3 46.8 46.2

Duration and Depth of flooding in Cambodia and the Viet
Nam Delta, 2000

A dense man-made canals
Embankment & road
system
Moderate but long duration
Entire North part flooded
Flooding caused by
overland flow from border
(~80% in the main stream)
Tide influence
Characteristics of Flood in the VN Delta

In the main stream:
35,405 m3/s &
351.0 billion m3
On the right side:
2,541 m3/s &
14.3 billion m3
On the left side:
13,873 m3/s &
89.0 billion m3
Flow distribution of the flood 2000 to the
VN MeKong Delta

FLOODING IN THE VN MEKONG
DELTA
Photo: Duy Thue,
1996
Photo: Ngoc Anh,
2000
Photo: Ngoc Anh,
2000
Photo: Quang Tri,
2001

Wedding ceremony
under innundation

Wedding party with innundation

#Y
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#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
%
%
Takeo
Kampot
Ca Mau
My Tho
Ha Tien
Can Tho
Rach Gia
Bac Lieu
Tra Vinh
Cao Lanh
Chau Doc Vinh Long
Soc Trang
Kien Luong
Long Xuyen
Svay Rieng
Ho Chi Minh City
0 30 60 90 12015
Kilometers
µLegend
Kb0_msal_98
VALUE
Khong man
0 - 1g/L
1 - 2g/L
2 - 3g/L
3 - 4g/L
4 - 6g/L
6 - 10g/L
10 - 15v
15 - 30g/L
30 - 40g/L
Salinity Intrusion inSalinity Intrusion in
the MK Deltathe MK Delta

Anti-
Salinity
Sluice
gates
after
2005

Salinity
isoline
In 2009 in
the MK
Delta

11 anti-salinity sluicegates (by JICA)

Salinity maps by MK Delta Study
(DHI-2014)

Salinity in the dry season of 2016

Daily Flow at Stung Streng and Kratie

Changes of WL at Chiang Saen in the dry season of 2016

WATER ISSUES RELATED TO
TOPOGRAPHY,
HYDOMETEOROLOGY
CONDITIONS AND
DEVELOPMENTS OF THE
MEKONG BASIN

59
Factors Impacted on Flood
Upstream Reservoirs make Reduction of
flood down to the Delta (normal Operation)
and Increasing (full reservoirs, big flood).
Construction of Dam at Tonle Sap may
change flow (in-out) to the Reservoir 
Increase flood water level
Change of river bottom (erosion, deposition)
 Change flow regime
Embankement, Road, :
CPC: Increasing flow in the main stream
VN: Increase local water level,
…..

HCM City Mar 2017
QL 91
QL 30
QL 54
Gates at river
mouths
Sea dykes
Sea dykes
Sea dyke GC-
VT
River dykes
HTTL Nam
HTTL
QL-PH
Topo-changes
Sluice gates along
MK, Bassac and
Cam-VN border

Flood control in the Long Xuyen Qudrangle
Vaøm Raêng
32,5m; -4
Coáng Soá 8; 7,5m,

Flood Control for the Plain of Reeds

New
Roads,
Emban-
kement
system Roads
Roads

CLIMATE CHANGE &
MEAN SEA LEVEL RISE

MEAN SEA LEVEL RISE
Rate of global MSL rise (IPCC 2013 Climate
Change 2013:)
1901-2010 : 19cm- with average rate
1,7mm/year
1993-2010 : 3,2 mm/year
MSLR based on some scenaios:
By the end of 2100 (compared to1986-2005)
 RCP4.5 tăng từ 36 ÷ 71cm (minimum)
 RCP8.5 tăng từ 52 ÷ 98cm (maximum)

Sea level has risen about 20 cm over the last 50 years
Sea level rise in Vietnam
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
DH(cm)
Thời gian (năm)
DHmax DHmean DHmin Linear (DHmax) Linear (DHmean) Linear (DHmin)
Source: Sea Level data at Hon Dau Station

Some
Evidence
on MSLR
along
coastal
areas of VN
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Bãi Cháy
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Năm
Mựcnước(cm)
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Hòn Dáu
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Năm
Mựcnước(cm)
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Cồn Cỏ
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
Năm
Mựcnước(cm)
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Cửa Việt
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005
Năm
Mựcnước(cm)
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Sơn Trà
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Năm
Mựcnước(cm)
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Quy Nhơn
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Năm
Mựcnước(cm)
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Phú QUýháy
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Năm
Mựcnước(cm)
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Phú Quốc
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Năm
Mựcnước(cm)
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Rạch Giá
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Năm
Mựcnước(cm)
Xu thế mực nước biển trung bình năm trạm Vũng Tàu
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Năm
Mựcnước(cm)

70
Water level rise
 Source: SIWRR (Khang ND, 2016)
Increasing of water levelceI
Station Period
Increasing WL
(mm/year)
Vũng
Tàu
1980-2015 4.85
Gành
Hào
1996-2015 16.6
2000-2015 19.6
Sông
Đốc
1996-2015 13.3
2000-2015 11
Rạch
Giá
1996-2015 2.9
2000-2015 5.3

Zonning for
simulation
of MSLR
along VN
coast area
(MONRE 2016)

Existing and 2050 Inundation

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> 4.54.5
Thang ñoängaäp (m)
2.0 2.51 .5 3.0 3.5 4.01 .00.0 0.2 0.5
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
> 4.54.5
Thang ñoängaäp (m)
2.0 2.51 .5 3.0 3.5 4.01 .00.0 0.2 0.5
BIEÅN ÑOÂNG
BIEÅNTAÂY

Cµ MauCµ MauCµ MauCµ MauCµ MauCµ MauCµ MauCµ MauCµ Mau
B¹ c Liª uB¹ c Liª uB¹ c Liª uB¹ c Liª uB¹ c Liª uB¹ c Liª uB¹ c Liª uB¹ c Liª uB¹ c Liª u
Sãc Tr¨ ngSãc Tr¨ ngSãc Tr¨ ngSãc Tr¨ ngSãc Tr¨ ngSãc Tr¨ ngSãc Tr¨ ngSãc Tr¨ ngSãc Tr¨ ng
R¹ ch GI¸R¹ ch GI¸R¹ ch GI¸R¹ ch GI¸R¹ ch GI¸R¹ ch GI¸R¹ ch GI¸R¹ ch GI¸R¹ ch GI¸
CÇn Th¬CÇn Th¬CÇn Th¬CÇn Th¬CÇn Th¬CÇn Th¬CÇn Th¬CÇn Th¬CÇn Th¬
Trµ VinhTrµ VinhTrµ VinhTrµ VinhTrµ VinhTrµ VinhTrµ VinhTrµ VinhTrµ Vinh
BÕn TreBÕn TreBÕn TreBÕn TreBÕn TreBÕn TreBÕn TreBÕn TreBÕn Tre
Mü ThoMü ThoMü ThoMü ThoMü ThoMü ThoMü ThoMü ThoMü Tho
VÜnh LongVÜnh LongVÜnh LongVÜnh LongVÜnh LongVÜnh LongVÜnh LongVÜnh LongVÜnh Long
Cao L· nhCao L· nhCao L· nhCao L· nhCao L· nhCao L· nhCao L· nhCao L· nhCao L· nh
T©n AnT©n AnT©n AnT©n AnT©n AnT©n AnT©n AnT©n AnT©n An
VÞThanhVÞThanhVÞThanhVÞThanhVÞThanhVÞThanhVÞThanhVÞThanhVÞThanh

Flood (Aug and Oct 2000) with WL rise
30cm

Innundation area of some locations in
the MK Delta corresponding to MSLR

1-2D coupling Model for simulation of
MSL Rise Impacts to the MK Delta

Salinity in Jan&Feb 2050 at 8 river mouths of the MK Delta
(Normal and MSL rise)
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Vàm Kênh Bình Đại AnThuận BếnTrại MỹThanh GànhHào Ông Đốc Biện Nhị RạchGiá
River mouths
MaxSalinity(g/L)
T150 T150BT T2-50BT T2_50NBD

Salinity at 8 river mouths in Mar & Apr 2050 of the MK Delta
10
15
20
25
30
35
VàmKênh Bình Đại An Thuận Bến Trại Mỹ Thanh Gành Hào Ông Đốc Biện Nhị Rạch Giá
River mouths
Salinitymax(g/L)
T3_50BT T3_50NBD T4_50BT T4_50NBD

Salinity at 8 river mouths in May & June 2050 of the MK Delta
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
VàmKênh BìnhĐại AnThuận BếnTrại Mỹ Thanh GànhHào ÔngĐốc BiệnNhị RạchGiá
River mouths
Salinitymax(g/L)
T5_50BT T5_50_NBD T6_50BT T6_50NBD

Max Salinity along the Vaico river in March and April 2050
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Ngã ba VàmCỏ Soài Rạp
Salinity
T3-50BT T3-50NBD T4-50BT T4-50NBD

Scenarios for developmentScenarios for development
1.1. Baseline conditionsBaseline conditions
2.2. Impact of climate changeImpact of climate change
3.3. Impact of catchment cover changeImpact of catchment cover change
4.4. Impact of high irrigation demand growthImpact of high irrigation demand growth
5.5. Impact of dams/reservoirsImpact of dams/reservoirs
6.6. Impact of flood control structuresImpact of flood control structures
7.7. Impact of salinity control structuresImpact of salinity control structures
8.8. Impact of navigation improvementImpact of navigation improvement
9.9. Impacts of various development orImpacts of various development or
conservation strategiesconservation strategies
10.10. etc …etc …

Development Scenarios for
the VN MK Delta ( by MDP-
Holland 2014-2015)

Flood
diversion
for Hau
and Tien
Rivers

Jica Project with 18 anti-Salinity
gates for 2013-2020

Salinity simulated for coastal area (Jica Project)

WATER RELATED ISSUES FOR BASIN DEVELOPMENTS
(China, Thailand, Lao PDR, Cambodia)

SCENARIOS
 Looking into 3 assumptions of changes:Looking into 3 assumptions of changes:
 Climatic conditions:Climatic conditions:
 System demand:System demand:
 Change of water demand in and off-streamChange of water demand in and off-stream
 Interventions:Interventions:
 Change of irrigated areaChange of irrigated area
 Change of forest coverageChange of forest coverage
 New dams/reservoirs in the areaNew dams/reservoirs in the area
 Embankment structure for flood controlEmbankment structure for flood control
 Salinity control structuresSalinity control structures
 New strategy on rice productionNew strategy on rice production
 New strategy for fisheries developmentNew strategy for fisheries development
 New strategy for energy productionNew strategy for energy production
 Revised strategies on environment protectionRevised strategies on environment protection

Thank you all
for your kind attention !

Water related issues in the Mekong Basin and Mekong Delta, Nguyen Tat Dac

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