Most talks on a typical conference schedule contain success stories of technology. This could lead to survivorship bias. Survivorship bias causes you to draw false conclusions because you mostly heard about successes, but hardly ever about failures. Yet failures provide us with lots of valuable knowledge: when not to apply a certain technique, pattern or process. So no success stories in this talk! Just some ‘silver bullets’ we tried to use to solve our problems, but turned out to be Very Bad Ideas™. We’ll share how survivorship bias can easily influence your ideas and cloud your judgement. After attending this talk you’ll be more aware of survivorship bias and what you can do to keep your head cool, no matter how many ‘silver bullets’ are fired at you.

4. https://nos.nl/data/image/2017/01/29/349992/xxl.jpg

5. https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bestand:Verkiezingen2.jpg

6. ¯_(ツ)_/¯

7. https://www.pexels.com/photo/grayscale-photography-of-man-and-woman-sitting-on-chair-1181735

8. Do I need a blockchain?
No.
https://medium.com/@sbmeunier/when-do-you-need-blockchain-decision-models-a5c40e7c9ba1

9. Do you need a database?
Don't use
a blockchain
Does it require shared
write access?
Are writers known
and trusted?
Do you want/need
to use a trusted 3rd
party?
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Are writers'
interests
unified?
Yes
Yes
No
Do you need to
control functionality?
No
Yes
Do you want transactions
to be public or private?
No
Use a public
blockchain
Public
Where is consensus
determined?
Use a hybrid
blockchain
Private
Inter-firm
Use a private
blockchain
Intra-firm
Yes
https://medium.com/@sbmeunier/when-do-you-need-blockchain-decision-models-a5c40e7c9ba1

10. Can you articulate a
real business problem?
Try a normal
database.
Could this have
been fixed before
blockchains?
Is this a 'digital
identities' and 'blockchains
are free' play?
Should or could an entity
have overall control?
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Will all
participants need
to upgrade/replace
systems?
No
Yes
Will participants mind their
data being visible?
No
You may have
a use case
No
Can they adopt?
Do the benefits justify the
costs of adoption?
Yes
Yes
Yes
https://medium.com/@sbmeunier/when-do-you-need-blockchain-decision-models-a5c40e7c9ba1

11. election blockchain
writers known? yes no
writers trusted? yes no
writers' interests uni ed? yes no
trusted third party? yes no
private transactions? yes no

12. SurvivorshipSurvivorshipSurvivorshipSurvivorshipSurvivorship
BiasBiasBiasBiasBias
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/958105

13. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Survivorship-bias.png

14. It won't solveIt won't solveIt won't solveIt won't solveIt won't solve
everything!everything!everything!everything!everything!
Just because a conference speaker solved
his/her problem with some new, cool
technique doesn't mean it will also solve
yours.
https://www.pexels.com/photo/2-hands-holding-1-jigsaw-puzzle-piece-each-164531/

15. Conference-drivenConference-drivenConference-drivenConference-drivenConference-driven
developmentdevelopmentdevelopmentdevelopmentdevelopment
Learn new skills at a conference, and then
use it to solve pretty much everything.
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1130503

16. OverengineeringOverengineeringOverengineeringOverengineeringOverengineering
If you apply CDD to everything you do,
your solutions will quickly become
overengineered.
https://www. ickr.com/photos/footfun/2454000816

17. http://gph.is/18wDuA0

18. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
List_of_failed_and_overbudget_custom_software_projects

22. https://pxhere.com/en/photo/655299

23. AlternativesAlternativesAlternativesAlternativesAlternatives
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1267965

24. BeatingBeatingBeatingBeatingBeating
SurvivorshipSurvivorshipSurvivorshipSurvivorshipSurvivorship
BiasBiasBiasBiasBias https://pxhere.com/en/photo/958105

25. Bullet image by , fromClker-Free-Vector-Images Pixabay

26. Understand theUnderstand theUnderstand theUnderstand theUnderstand the
problem firstproblem firstproblem firstproblem firstproblem first
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/843810

27. Track A Track B
09:00-
10:00
QWERTY or DVORAK? Debunking
the Keyboard Layout Myths
Beware of
Survivorship
Bias!
10:00-
11:00
How I Created a MMORPG Game
Using Haskell Only
An Introduction
to Kubernetes
11:00-
12:00
Monitoring Kubernetes with
Prometheus
Return of the
Blockchain

28. Gain some experienceGain some experienceGain some experienceGain some experienceGain some experience
firstfirstfirstfirstfirst
This could mean you have to wait until
next year's conference in order to
appreciate fully the contents of an
advanced talk.
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/918274

29. Build your personalBuild your personalBuild your personalBuild your personalBuild your personal
conference scheduleconference scheduleconference scheduleconference scheduleconference schedule
accordinglyaccordinglyaccordinglyaccordinglyaccordingly
Value topics relevant to your experience
over 'the next silver bullet'.
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1370392

30. Make sure you meetMake sure you meetMake sure you meetMake sure you meetMake sure you meet
the prerequisitesthe prerequisitesthe prerequisitesthe prerequisitesthe prerequisites
Don't attend a talk that proposes a
solution to a problem, if you don't
understand the problem yet.
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/843810

31. Remember theRemember theRemember theRemember theRemember the
Hype CycleHype CycleHype CycleHype CycleHype Cycle
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1262347

32. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bf/Hype-Cycle-General.png

33. Possible Talk Title
On the Rise NoSQL: The New Reality
At the Peak NoSQL Will Change Your Life and
Fix Your Projects
Sliding Into
the Trough
How We Do NoSQL at Cool, Inc.
Climbing the
Slope
Modern NoSQL Patterns and
Practices
Entering the
Plateau
NoSQL 2.0 with SilverBulletDB

34. Does the speakerDoes the speakerDoes the speakerDoes the speakerDoes the speaker
mention anymention anymention anymention anymention any
drawbacks?drawbacks?drawbacks?drawbacks?drawbacks?
The best talks contain detailed
comparisons of pros and cons
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b2/Balance_scale_IMGP9728.jpg

35. Use the Q&A at theUse the Q&A at theUse the Q&A at theUse the Q&A at theUse the Q&A at the
end of the talkend of the talkend of the talkend of the talkend of the talk
Scary at rst perhaps, but take comfort in
the fact that the rest of the audience is
rooting for you.
https://www.pexels.com/photo/monopoly-car-piece-1634213/

36. Try to arrange aTry to arrange aTry to arrange aTry to arrange aTry to arrange a
'hallway meeting''hallway meeting''hallway meeting''hallway meeting''hallway meeting'
Which basically means just bumping into
them in the hallways!
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1454179

37. They seem to really like that, by the way!

38. How would youyouyouyouyou solve
the puzzle?
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1207943

39. Start tinkeringStart tinkeringStart tinkeringStart tinkeringStart tinkering
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/901709
Learning Through Tinkering: The Need for Pet Projects (Tom Cools)

40. ExperimentExperimentExperimentExperimentExperiment
If you cannot reproduce the problem and
the solution, there must be another factor
at play.
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1004202

41. Look at the numbersLook at the numbersLook at the numbersLook at the numbersLook at the numbers
Succeeded Failed
Same approach
Di erent approach
→ What do they tell you?
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1437973

42. The community needsThe community needsThe community needsThe community needsThe community needs
you!you!you!you!you!
Blog, tweet or speak about your failures
and what you've learned from them!

43. Master Your ToolsMaster Your ToolsMaster Your ToolsMaster Your ToolsMaster Your Tools
Use your tools long enough to really get to
know them.
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/704019

44. Maven's Dependency Tree
mvn dependency:tree ­Dincludes=*:spring­batch*:*

45. TemptingTemptingTemptingTemptingTempting
Abraham Maslow
Toward a Psychology of Being
"I suppose it is tempting, if the only tool
you have is a hammer, to treat everything
as if it were a nail."
https://www.pexels.com/photo/black-claw-hammer-on-brown-wooden-plank-209235/

46. Take AwaysTake AwaysTake AwaysTake AwaysTake Aways
1. Share your failures and lessons learned!
2. Start tinkering!
3. See you in the Hallway track!