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Agile Planning in large organizations - managing uncertainty

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Project planning has always built on the art of anticipation. Today's rapidly changing complex world puts new challenges to this art. To succeed, an agile attitude and approach to planning is a promising starting point. Many organizations however struggle with taking this idea into practice. In this talk you will hear and learn about a practical approach to agile project planning in large organizations. This approach is successfully proven in practice at Ericsson, one of the world's largest SW companies.

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Agile Planning in large organizations - managing uncertainty

  1. 1. Hendrik Esser VP Operations Ericsson Agile Planning In large organizations Hendrik Esser @HendrikEsser Initiative driver Supporting Agile Adoption
  2. 2. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 2 How many % of your plans did not need to be changed later?
  3. 3. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 3 (Many clever people)
  4. 4. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 4 Traditional way to deal with uncertainty
  5. 5. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 5
  6. 6. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 6 Practically?
  7. 7. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 7 What needs to change? People Processes Structures Behavior Capabilities Interdependencies asystemofconstraints This is an (organizational) system change!
  8. 8. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 8 Human System Action Tool ProcessesStructures Behavior Capabilities desired state or problem statement Human System Action Tool – Ericsson AB/Hendrik Esser
  9. 9. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 9 Human System Action Tool ProcessesStructures Behavior Capabilities desired state or problem statement Behavior Mindset/attitude Values Needs Competence Skills # people Diversity Hidden talent Processes Practices Tools Habits Organization Governance Compensation Roles (Informal) networks Human System Action Tool – Ericsson AB/Hendrik Esser
  10. 10. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 10 Learning cycle Look at the system Analyze: - Is your vision still valid? - What supports your vision - What doesn’t Take change actions Define a change experiment See what emerges
  11. 11. Embracing Uncertainty
  12. 12. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 12 ProcessesStructures Behavior Capabilities Deal professionally with uncertainty Communicate Make uncertainty visible Accept, that uncertainty is always there Share views and insights Speak up when you see something unexpected React constructively on surprises Show and discuss uncertainty in governance meetings Frequent meetings to digest updates/new insights Distributed planning on different levels Iterative development  feedback loop Communication structure Manage expectations  anticipate expec- tations & address them Translate uncertainty into realistic expectations (customers, internal stakeholders)
  13. 13. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 13 Ranges Visualization Continuous Collaboration & sharing Uncertainty Management Large-Scale Principles Cost uncertainty TODAY Delivery range prediction Time Uncertainty (Burndown Chart) Planning & Alignment Product Mgmt Development Expertise Planning Expertise Technical Expertise Solution Product Mgmt Opportunity Owner Feature 1 Feature 2 Feature 3 Feature 4 Feature 5 Feature 6 Feature 7 Release A Release B TODAY Priority
  14. 14. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 14 Product Management Based on › customer feedback › company’s strategic goals. Feature Priority List Feature Priority Release Intent Market Window Feature 1 1 Release B Feature 2 2 Release A Feature 3 3 Release B Feature 4 4 Release B Feature 5 5 Release A Feature 6 6 Release B Feature 7 7 Release A Feature 8 8 Release C
  15. 15. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 15 Timing uncertainty TODAY Delivery range Feature Burn down Chart time Remainingwork
  16. 16. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 16 Feature 1 F2 F4 F4 Feature 2 F2 F4 F4 Feature 3 F2 F4 F4 Feature 4 F2 F4 F4 Feature 5 F2 F4 F4 Feature 6 F2 F4 F4 Feature 7 F2 F4 F4 LF4 Release A LF4 Release B TODAY Priority Feature 1 F2 F4 F4Feature 1 F2 F4 F4 Feature 2 F2 F4 F4 Feature 3 F2 F4 F4 Feature 4 F2 F4 F4 Feature 5 F2 F4 F4 Feature 6 F2 F4 F4 Feature 7 F2 F4 F4 LF4 Release A LF4 Release B TODAY Priority A B B B A B A Release Intent Visualization Uncertainties for Features and Releases Release A Release B
  17. 17. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 17 Visualization Uncertainties on portfolio/Scenario level Pull System Lean principle: avoid overburden Capability limit  time #people
  18. 18. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 18 Visualization Uncertainties on portfolio/Scenario level Pull System Lean principle: avoid overburden Capability limit We have teams available in 2 months from now  flexibility, responsiveness Scenario data from Quick Analysis Items, that are either mandatory or in execution  time #people
  19. 19. Deal professionally with uncertainty Uncertainty Management
  20. 20. Intervention 1
  21. 21. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 21 ProcessesStructures Behavior Capabilities Deal professionally with uncertainty Communicate Make uncertainty visible Accept, that uncertainty is always there Share views and insights Speak up when you see something unexpected React constructively on surprises Show and discuss uncertainty in governance meetings Frequent meetings to digest updates/new insights Distributed planning on different levels Iterative development  feedback loop Communication structure Manage expectations  anticipate expec- tations & address them Translate uncertainty into realistic expectations (customers, internal stakeholders)
  22. 22. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 22 ProcessesStructures Behavior Capabilities Deal professionally with uncertainty all plans with cost & time ranges Accept, that uncertainty is always there Share views and insights Show and discuss uncertainty in governance meetings Distributed planning on different levels Scrum Basic acceptance by PdM Recruit Portfolio Mgrs with “right” mindset & perceverance Decision model Portfolio Mgrs
  23. 23. Intervention 2
  24. 24. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 24 ProcessesStructures Behavior Capabilities Deal professionally with uncertainty all plans with cost & time ranges Accept, that uncertainty is always there Share views and insights Show and discuss uncertainty in governance meetings Distributed planning on different levels Scrum Basic acceptance by PdM Recruit Portfolio Mgrs with “right” mindset & perceverance Heavy debates in governance meetings Teams don’t support the ranges Explain purpose of ranges Tool support for ranges POs asked to support ranges Lift the abstraction level in governance meetings
  25. 25. Intervention 3
  26. 26. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 26 ProcessesStructures Behavior Capabilities Deal professionally with uncertainty all plans with cost & time ranges Accept, that uncertainty is always there Share views and insights Show and discuss uncertainty in governance meetings Distributed planning on different levels Scrum Basic acceptance by PdM Recruit Portfolio Mgrs with “right” mindset & perceverance Some teams hate the tool Explain purpose of ranges Tool support for ranges POs asked to support ranges Lift the abstraction level in governance meetings Make tool optional Less debate in governance meetings Add “give me ranges” to process without telling “how”
  27. 27. Intervention 4
  28. 28. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 28 ProcessesStructures Behavior Capabilities Deal professionally with uncertainty all plans with cost & time ranges Accept, that uncertainty is always there Share views and insights Show and discuss uncertainty in governance meetings Distributed planning on different levels Scrum Basic acceptance by PdM Recruit Portfolio Mgrs with “right” mindset & perceverance Debate: why can’t we commit earlier? Explain purpose of ranges Tool support for ranges POs asked to support ranges Lift the abstraction level in governance meetings Make tool optional In governance meetings: range is used to discuss what we can tell to the customer Add “give me ranges” to process without telling “how” Provide customer oriented uncertainty view in governance meetings PdM understand development better Regular work/scenario meetings between Development and PdM Developers understand PdM better
  29. 29. Intervention 5
  30. 30. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 30 ProcessesStructures Behavior Capabilities Deal professionally with uncertainty all plans with cost & time ranges Accept, that uncertainty is always there Share views and insights Show and discuss uncertainty in governance meetings Distributed planning on different levels Scrum Basic acceptance by PdM Recruit Portfolio Mgrs with “right” mindset & perceverance Explain purpose of ranges Tool support for ranges POs asked to support ranges Lift the abstraction level in governance meetings Make tool optional PdM and Development starting to “join forces” Add “give me ranges” to process without telling “how” Provide customer oriented uncertainty view in governance meetings PdM understand development better Regular work/scenario meetings between Development and PdM Developers understand PdM better Closely pair PO with PdMgr
  31. 31. Intervention 6
  32. 32. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 32 ProcessesStructures Behavior Capabilities Deal professionally with uncertainty all plans with cost & time ranges Accept, that uncertainty is always there Share views and insights Show and discuss uncertainty in governance meetings Distributed planning on different levels Scrum Basic acceptance by PdM Recruit Portfolio Mgrs with “right” mindset & perceverance Explain purpose of ranges Tool support for ranges POs asked to support ranges Lift the abstraction level in governance meetings Make tool optional We don’t need commitment decisions any more Add “give me ranges” to process without telling “how” Provide customer oriented uncertainty view in governance meetings PdM understand development better Regular work/scenario meetings between Development and PdM Developers understand PdM better Closely pair PO with PdMgr Make commitment decisions optional
  33. 33. To be continued …
  34. 34. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 34 › Agile planning is about embracing change › This is a system change! Wanted behaviors, capabilities, processes and structures. › Not a one-shot: it requires continuous evolution  organizational retrospectives! › Key ingredients: – Behaviors: Constructively work with uncertainties and surprises – Capabilities: Uncertainty communication skills / expectation management skills – Processes: Short iterations and “feedback loop obsession” – Structures: Visualization of uncertainties and communication & decision structures to work with the feedback
  35. 35. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 35

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