CHAPTER sixteeen1.ppt

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6.2 Population Growth: Past, Present, and
Future
• Structure of the world’s population
The world’s population is distributed:
1. Geographic region
2. Fertility and Mortality Trends
3. Rate of population increase
4. Birth rates, death rates , Total fertility rates
5. Age Structure and dependency burdens

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6.2 Population Growth: Past,
Present, and Future
Structure of the world’s population:
1. Geographic Region
– More than ¾ of the world live in
developing countries.
– Latin America, Africa and Asia will share
88% of world’s population in 2050.
– There is an ever-growing population
share of the developing world.

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Figure 6.2 World Population Distribution by Region,
2010 and 2050

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Present, and Future
– The rate of population increase is
quantitatively measured as the
percentage yearly net relative increase
(or decrease, in which case it is
negative) in population size due to
natural increase and net
international migration.
– Birth rates in developing are much higher
than in developed.

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Present, and Future
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
– The number of children that would be
born to a woman if she were to live to
the end of her childbearing years and
bear children in accordance with the
prevailing age-specific fertility rates.

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Table 6.3 Fertility Rate for Selected Countries, 1970
and 2009

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3. Age Structure and Dependency
Burdens
– Population is relatively youthful in the
developing world. As of 2011, children under
the age of 15 constitute more than 40% of the
total population of the low-income countries,
32% of the lower-middle income countries, but
just 17% of high-income countries.
– In countries with such an age structure, the
youth dependency ratio—the proportion of
youths (under age 15) to economically active
adults (ages 15 to 64)—is very high.
Present, and Future

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3. Age Structure and Dependency
Burdens
– In general, the more rapid the population
growth rate is, the greater the proportion of
dependent children in the total population and
the more difficult it is for people who are
working to support those who are not.
– This phenomenon of youth dependency also
leads to an important concept, the hidden
momentum of population growth.
Present, and Future

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Present, and Future
4. Hidden Momentum/force of
Population Growth
– The phenomenon whereby population
continues to increase even after a fall in
birth rates because the large existing
youthful population expands the
population’s base of potential parents.

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6.2 Population Growth: Past, Present, and
Future
• The Hidden Momentum of Population
Growth
– High birth rates cannot be altered
overnight:
– Age structure of developing country
populations

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Figure 6.4 Population Pyramids: All Developed and
Developing Countries and Case of Ethiopia

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Figure 6.6 The Demographic Transition in
Developing Countries

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Developing Countries Cont…
• Stage I was characterized by relatively
high birth and death rates.
• Stage II there was a tremendous or
wonderful decline in death rates due to
highly effective imported modern medical
facilities. In this stage was also
characterized by high birth rates over 40%
per 1000 with death rates of about 20%
per 1000.

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Developing Countries Cont…
• Case A represents countries that have had
higher decline in both birth and death
rates.
• Case B represents countries whose death
rates have failed to drop future because of
the persistence of widespread absolute
poverty and low levels of living.

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6.4 The Causes of High Fertility in
Developing Countries: The
Malthusian Models
• Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) -
Cambridge UK "An Essay on the Principle
of Population as it Affects the Future
Improvement of Society" (1798)

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The Core Principles of Malthus:
1. Food is necessary for human existence
2. Human population tends to grow faster
than the power in the earth to produce
subsistence
3. The effects of these two unequal powers
must be kept equal.

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Malthus (1766-1834)
• Population issues of fertility and mortality or
births and deaths
• In his Essay on the Principle of Population,
initially published in 1798, Malthus postulated
that population tended to grow geometrically
while the means of subsistence (food) grew
only arithmetically.
• Malthusian trap or population trap is a
condition whereby excess population would
stop growing due to shortage of food supply
leading to starvation

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Malthus (1766-1834)
• Arithmetic Growth (Food):1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6,
7, 8, 9, 10…
• Geometric Growth (Population):1, 2, 4, 8,
16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512…
• Malthus argued that the difference between
geometric and arithmetic growth caused a
tension between the growth of population
and that of the means of subsistence.

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Figure 6.7 Over Time, Geometric Growth Overtakes
Arithmetic Growth

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Figure 6.8 Estimated Human Population Growth

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Food &
Population,
1950-2000
Malthus vs.
Actual
Trends
Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food
production, but food production actually expanded faster than
population in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

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Two types of checks to population
• Positive checks– anything that increases
mortality (war, disease, famine, poor living
standards) and kills off excess population
• Preventive checks- abstinence, delayed
marriage and non-marriage that limit the
number of children born
– later age at marriage
– abstinence from sex outside marriage.

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A Natural Experiment Confirming the
Malthusian View: the Black Death
• 1347: originating from Asia, the Black
Death enters through the port of Marseilles
and spreads throughout Europe in two
years, killing one third of the population
(from 80 to 56 million).
• Due to the fall in population, the ratio of
land per worker rises; real wages started
to rise tremendously all over Europe.

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Malthus’s theory reflects his times
• End of 18th: population was increasing,
wages were falling
• Assumes primarily agricultural society with
limited technological innovation, where
laborers spent most income on food
(bread)
• Fertility levels depended on marriage age

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Advantages of larger population
1. Encourages division of labor, leading to
more efficient production of goods
2. Allows economies of scale, development of
infrastructure (e.g., irrigation systems,
transportation networks)
3. Supports the growth of cities, more
complex societies
4. More people is more potential inventors of
new technology

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Figure 6.9 The Malthusian Population Trap
The Malthusian trap or population trap is a
condition whereby excess population would stop
growing due to shortage of food supply leading to
starvation

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The Malthusian Trap
A
B C
Population growth rate
Trap
Trap
Growth rate (%)
Income per capita
0
1
2
3
5
4
-1
Y2 Y3 Y4
Y1
Growth
Y0
Growth

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Figure 6.10 How Technological and Social Progress
Allows Nations to Avoid the Population Trap

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6.4 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing
Countries: The Malthusian and Household
Models (cont’d)
• The Demand for Children in Developing
Countries
– First two or three as “consumer goods”
– Additional children as “investment goods”:
– Work on family farm, microenterprise
– Old age security motivation
• Family-planning programs Public
programs designed to help parents plan
and regulate their family size.

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6.4 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing
Countries: The Malthusian and Household
Models (cont’d)
• Some empirical evidence: it has been
found that higher female employment will
cause lower level of fertility.
• Implications. Fertility lower if
– Raise women’s education, role, and status
– More female nonagricultural wage employment
– Rise in family income levels
– Reduction in infant mortality
– Development of old-age and social security
– Expanded schooling opportunities

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6.5 The Consequences of High Fertility: Some
Conflicting Perspectives
• Population growth It’s Not a Real
Problem:
– The real problem is not population
growth but the following,
•Underdevelopment
•World resource depletion and
environmental destruction
•Population Distribution
•Subordination of women

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6.5 The Consequences of High Fertility: Some
Conflicting Perspectives
• “Population Growth Is a Real
Problem”
– Extremist arguments
– Theoretical arguments
– Empirical arguments
• Lower economic growth
• Poverty
• Adverse impact on education
• Adverse impact on health
• Food issues
• Impact on the environment
• Frictions over international migration

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Three other noneconomic
arguments for population growth
• First, many countries claim a need for
population growth to protect currently under-
populated border regions against the
expansionist intentions of neighboring nations.
• Second, there are many ethnic, racial, and
religious groups in less developed countries
whose attitudes favoring large family size have
to be protected for both moral and political
reasons.
• Finally, military and political power are often
seen as dependent on a large and youthful
population.

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Goals and Objectives:
Toward a Consensus
• Despite the conflicting opinions, there is
some common ground on the following:
– Population is not the primary cause of lower
living levels, but may be one factor
– Population growth is more a consequence than
a cause of underdevelopment
– It’s not numbers but quality of life
– Market failures: potential negative social
externalities
– Voluntary decreases in fertility is generally
desirable for most developing countries with
still-expanding populations

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Goals and Objectives:
Toward a Consensus
• Some Policy Approaches
– Attend to underlying socioeconomic conditions
that impact development
– Family planning programs should provide
education and technological means to regulate
fertility
– Developed countries have responsibilities too

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6.6 Some Policy Approaches
• What Developing Countries Can Do
– Persuasion through education
– Family planning programs
– Address incentives and disincentives for having
children through the principal variables
influencing the demand for children
– Coercion is not a good option
– Raise the socioeconomic status of women
– Increase employment opportunities for women
(increases opportunity cost of having more
children, as in microeconomic household
theory)

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6.6 Some Policy Approaches
• What the Developed Countries Can Do
Generally
– Address resources use inequities
– More open migration policies
• How Developed Countries Can Help
Developing Countries with Their Population
Programs
– Research into technology of fertility control
– Financial assistance for family planning
programs

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THANKS

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