Wellington Business Keynote - Paul Callaghan

1. Beyond the Farm and the Theme Park
Transforming New Zealand s culture and economy
Paul Callaghan
Alan MacDiarmid Professor of Physical Sciences
Victoria University of Wellington

2. www.macdiarmid.ac.nz

3. One-sided access NMR

6. 100
Alpine Zone
Tussock
percent total land area
80
Exotic grassland
60
40 Exotic forest
Scrub, wetlands
Recent history of New Zealand land cover
20
Native forest
Settlements, crops
0
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
year

7. Land area
Net
Dairy exports
http://www.sasi.group.shef.ac.uk/worldmapper/textindex/text_transport.html

8. Real per capita GDP (OECD average = 100)
150 USA
140
130
Ireland
120
Australia
110
100
Finland
90
80 New Zealand
70
60
50
Source: OECD

11. Dunedin September
14
living room
12
temperature oC
10
8
6
4
2
0 outdoors
00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00
time (hh:mm)
22 August to 5 October World Health Organisation
recommended
EVH3 Impact of Housing on Health in Dunedin NZ
www.dunedincity.govt.nz/city/

12. New Zealand
average
Number of deaths
New Zealand
average
EVH3 Impact of Housing on Health in Dunedin NZ
www.dunedincity.govt.nz/city/

13. New Zealand
average
Number of deaths
New Zealand
average
EVH3 Impact of Housing on Health in Dunedin NZ
www.dunedincity.govt.nz/city/

14. How many New Zealanders* live abroad?
(i) 100,000
(ii) 200,000
(iii) 500,000
(iv) 1,000,000
(v) 1,500,000
*NZ born

15. Diaspora 2001
New Zealand 12%
Australia 2%
UK 6%
Canada 4%
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/
research-policy/wp/2004/04-13

16. A century of decline
The Economist industrial commodity-price index real *$ terms 1845-50 = 100
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
1850 1900 1950 2004
*Adjusted by US GDP deflator

18. Effective markets
Legal frameworks
Property rights
Honest work ethic
Lack of corruption

19. Effective markets
Legal frameworks
Property rights
Honest work ethic
Lack of corruption
Low taxation?
Sweden
Per capita GDP 31% higher than NZ
Top personal tax rate 56% VAT 25%
Australia
Per capita GDP 30% higher than NZ
Top personal tax rate 45% GST 10%

20. Nathan Rothschild 1821

21. Pasture research.
Strain and Breeding
Nitrogen fixing role
Bush-Sickness-cobalt deficiency
Integrated Pastoral Systems
The Role of Phosphate
Aerial topdressing
The Electric Fence
Milk Tankers
Fewer Farms - Bigger Herds
The Science of Milk Products Geoffrey Peren
Mechanised Cheesemaking
Francis Dry

22. Meat Exports/Pharmaceutical Imports
2020
19
1818
17
1616
15
1414
13
1212
Ratio
11
1010
9
88
7
66
5
44
3
22
1
00
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
1968 1974 1980 1986 Year 1992 1998 2004 2010
Year
Source: David Bibby, 1998
Updated PTC 2007

23. How much more income per annum does
New Zealand need to match Australia's
per capita GDP?
(i) US $5 bn
(ii) US $10 bn
(iii) US $20 bn
(iv) US $30 bn
(v) US $50 bn

24. Trend in per capita GDP relative to OECD average
shortfall
US$ 29.2 billion
New Zealand 2006 GDP US $106.9 billion
New Zealand 2006 GDP - Per Capita US $26,200
Australia 2006 GDP - Per Capita US $33,300
OECD-NZ Institute
http://www.nzinstitute.org/

25. Merchandise exports for the year ended December 2006 US $25.2 billion
Travel and transportation exports for the year ended December 2006 US $7.4 billion
8
2006 US$ 32 billion
6
4
2
0
NZ External Trade Statistics
http://www.stats.govt.nz

27. NZ Greenhouse gas emissions
http://www.mfe.govt.nz

29. Perceptions of Crowding by Track Surveyed
Track Name n2 Not at all Slightly Moderately Extremely
Crowded Crowded Crowded Crowded
North Island % % % %
Lake 29 21 48 24 7
Waikaremoana
(GW)
Tongariro 51 27 45 18 10
(GW)
UoO dept Tourism

30. Meet psycho for only $7950
Sheikh Mishal bin Hamad al Thani

31. Iceland
Japan Canada Switzerland USA
Australia
Greece Spain UK Ireland
Sweden
Finland Austria
Italy Netherlands
Germany Belgium
France

32. Iceland
Japan USA
A Canada Switzerland
Australia
B
Greece Spain UK Ireland
Sweden
Finland Austria E
C Italy Netherlands
D Germany Belgium
France

33. Iceland
New Zealand Japan
Canada Switzerland USA
Australia
Greece Spain UK Ireland
Sweden
Finland Austria
Italy Netherlands
Germany Belgium
France

34. prosperity
USA
Ireland
Switzerland
Iceland
Canada Austria
Australia Belgium, Netherlands
Finland UK
Sweden France
Japan
Germany
Italy
Spain
New Zealand
Greece

35. The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee
shortfall
US $29.2 billion
New Zealand
GDP - Per Capita US $26,200
NZ $45,200
Australia
GDP - Per Capita US $33,300
OECD-NZ Institute
http://www.nzinstitute.org/ NZ $57,400
Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March 2009 1.36 million*
Total FTE New Zealand population as at March 4.32 million*
To exceed our current per capita:
GDP average revenue per employee must exceed NZ$ 45,200*(4.32/1.36)
We need another US $30 billion per annum exports
New activity must exceed NZ $143,000 revenue per employee FTE!
* NZTE

36. What is the average revenue per
employee for the NZ Tourism industry?
(i) NZ$ 75,000
(ii) NZ$ 100,000
(iii) NZ$ 150,000
(iv) NZ$ 200,000
(v) NZ$ 300,000

37. $500,000
$400,000
Revenue per employee
$300,000
$200,000
Needed
for current
per capita GDP
$100,000
Tourism
0
100,000 200,000 300,000
FTE of employment

38. $500,000
$400,000
Revenue per employee
$300,000
NZ Manufacturing Exports
Total NZ Manufacturing
$200,000
Needed
for current
Food manufacturing per capita GDP
$100,000 Wine
Tourism
0
100,000 200,000 300,000
FTE of employment

39. $500,000
Fonterra
$400,000
Revenue per employee
$300,000
NZ Manufacturing Exports
Total NZ Manufacturing
$200,000
Needed
for current
Food manufacturing per capita GDP
$100,000 Wine
Tourism
0
100,000 200,000 300,000
FTE of employment

40. $500,000
Fonterra
$400,000 Fisher and Paykel Healthcare
Revenue per employee
$300,000
NZ Manufacturing Exports
Total NZ Manufacturing
$200,000
Needed
for current
Food manufacturing per capita GDP
$100,000 Wine
Tourism
0
100,000 200,000 300,000
FTE of employment

44. F and P appliances
TIN100 Datacom
F and P Healthcare
New Zealand Technology Companies Navico
NDA
$1410m ProvencoCadmus
Rakon
Gallagher
Weta Ltd
Tait Electronics Ltd
$500m Douglas pharmaceuticals
Allied Telesis
Methven
Tru Test
$400m Glidepath
Dynamic controls
CWF Hamilton
Schneider electric
$300m Skope industries
BCS group
Humanware
Infinity group
$200m
NZ Pharmaceuticals
$100m
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1
Rank

45. Our place on the research funding phase diagram
Agriculture, F and F
NZ
POR
$9 per kg
IRL
DEN
CAN
AUST
FIN
BEL MEX TA FR JPN
NED SW GER SP UK USA
Environment Industry $3000 per kg
Source: David Bibby, IRL, 1998

46. New Economy Research Fund
1999-2005 New Zealand
USA
(and nearly everyone else)
Abt Associates report to MoRST
www.morst.govt.nz

48. www.hotscience.co.nz
Beyond the Farm and the Themepark
50 minute documentary
TVNZ 7 4,5,6 November 2008

49. Auckland University Press
March 2009

51. Rich economies must defend themselves
by remaining on the cutting edge of research,
moving into new and growing branches,
learning from others, finding the right niches,
by cultivating and using ability and knowledge.
Much will depend on their spirit of enterprise,
their sense of identity and commitment to the common weal,
their self-esteem, their ability to transmit these assets across the generations..

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