Nova era računarstva, Kerrie Holly - IBM Fellow - Scalable Business Services, Master Inventor

1. Technological Trends of the Future: Next Era of Computing
Kerrie Holley, IBM Fellow

2. IBM’s Global Technology Outlook (GTO)
GTO identifies significant technology trends early.
It looks for high impact disruptive technologies
leading to game changing products and services
over
a 3-10 year horizon.
Technology thresholds identified in a GTO
demonstrate their influence on clients,
enterprises, and industries, and have high
potential to create new businesses.

3. IBM’s
GTO
Genetic
Map

4. Mega Trends
Technology Drivers
Mobile - Social – Cloud Analytics / Big Data
Growing Scale / Lower Barrier of Entry
Users
Transactions
Computations
Data
Increasing Complexity / Yet More Consumable
Data and data management
Workloads
Discovering insights
Interaction
Fast Pace
Evolving business eco-system
Dynamic scalability
Minimize time to value
Keeping pace with technology and globalization
Contextual Overload
Proliferation of sensors and devices
Demand for personalization
Just in time

5. IBM’s 5 in 5

6. Touch: You will be able to feel through your phone

7. Sight: A pixel will be worth a thousands words

8. Hearing: Computers will augment what you hear

9. Taste: Digital taste buds will help you eat smarter

10. Smell: Computers will sniff out diseases

11. …..the New Era

12. For many clients, mission critical applications have reached the point
of diminishing return
Diminishing Return
Client
Value
Many major application
categories are in
diminishing returns
– ERP
– SCM
– Batch
– Commerce
Cumulative Investment in Applications

13. The confluence of Social, Mobile, Analytics and Cloud has created a
perfect storm of sorts
Cloud
Mobile
Social
Internet of Things

14. Exponential growth in data, why does it matter?
100
9000
Percentage of uncertain data
80
7000
60
6000
Social Media
We are here
40
5000
4000
VoIP
3000
Enterprise Data
20
0
2010
2015
Percent of uncertain data
Volume in Exabytes
8000
Sensors
& Devices

15. Companies are not overwhelmed by too much data
scrila34@msn.com
…. constrained and limited by too little

16. Information in context
scrila34@msn.com
Job
Applicant
Identity
Thief
Puzzle metaphor by IBM Fellow, Jeff Jonas
Top 200
Customer
Criminal
Investigation

17. Analytics and the context multiplier
Actuarial data
Government statistics
Epidemic data
Patient records
Weather history
...
Location risk
Occupational risk
Family history
Raw Data
Travel history
Feature
extraction metadata
Dietary risk
...
Personal financial situation
Chemical exposure
Domain linkages
Social relationships
Full
contextual analytics

18. Eras of Computing
Programmable
Systems Era
Tabulating
Systems Era
Cognitive
Systems Era

19. Watson to provide the foundation for a completely new form of client
experience
Watson can assist an Oncologist by:
Synthesizing disparate data – patient
records, clinician notes, test results,
pathology reports, etc.
Identifying missing pieces of data
recommending tests with complete
transparency
Providing evidence-based options to
help physicians efforts to improve
quality of care and patient experience

21. IBM Watson brings together transformational technologies to drive
optimized outcomes ushering in the new era
Generates and
1 Understands
natural
language and
human speech
3
Adapts and
Learns from user
selections and
responses
2
evaluates
hypothesis for
better outcomes
99%
60%
10%

22. Key Technologies in the Cognitive Computing Era
Context and
Learning
Visual Analytics
and Interaction
Software Defined
Environments
Data-centric
Systems
Atomic and
Nano-scale
1
2
3
4
5

23. Major Waves of Technology – 4th Era of IT
Confluence of Social Mobile Cloud
Analytics / Big Data
Back Office
Computing
60’s
Client Server
PC - 1981
80’s
World Wide Web
and eBusiness
90’s
We are here

24. Trend: Mobility is driving new consumption patterns
Context Fusion
Apps are used to perform a single task,
based on the user's context (role, location,
...)
App-centric
Users increasingly demonstrate a
preference for apps that are downloaded
from trusted source over mobile web
browsing
Apps Chained
50% of mobile sessions are composed of
sequences of apps, manually "integrated"
by the user
New consumption patterns place users at the center.
Mobile provides a seamless experience across all
channels (e.g., retail, banking, call centers).
Wearable
Devices
Augmented
Web
Reality
Chat
Telephone
Social
Tablet
Smart TV
Physical World
Smartphone

25. Mobiity, cloud, social and analytics is enabling companies to reimagine their business models to capture new value
HTTP Notification
Data sync
CRM
Legacy
DB
Scalable Delivery
Infrastructure
HR
ERP
Systems of Record
Continuous Client
Experience
Engagement Capabilities
Social and Collaboration
Cross-endpoint Support
Personalization
Contextualization
Scalable Delivery Infrastructure
Background Activity & Monitoring
Data Synchronization
Service Composition
Metadata Repository
User and services security

26. Trend: Born on the Internet enterprise companies have emerged
• They use a self-service sales model with scalable subscription pricing models
• New models for collaboration and life cycle management for applications and
code
• Cloud for Internal IT and product delivery
• Customer experience and business experiences delivered through software as
a service

27. Trend: New User and App / API Economy has emerged
New user: fundamental Shifts in Devices and Usage
–
–
–
–
–
PC Mobile
Search Social
Traveling Heavy Traveling Light
Miminal Insight Contextual
Standard Interfaces Imagination of User Interfaces
Application economy of the enterprise is changing: bring
your own applications, data and device to the enterprise
–
–
–
Unaware Incorporated Location Services
“Toy Apps” Business Level Capabilities
Monolithic applications Mobile Self-Service
Marketplaces

28. Trend: The New Developer has emerged in the enterprise
The new developer is taking control over the corporation
with Open Source
Prosumers are becoming the newest developers
The new developer is API driven
The new developer is API driven
–
–
–
–
–
APIs are changing the face of development and the way
products and services are delivered
Create exposure and revenue
Foster new affifliate and distribution models
Allow companies to open their resources in a secure and
controlled way
Create near real time access to cross division resources

29. Cloud, mobile and social are fueling the hyper-growth of API-centric,
new business as-a-service economies
TREND:
A new as-a-service
economy is
emerging
Business functions are delivered as API-centric services,
enabling businesses to co-create customer value with speed
and scale
Born-on-the-web companies are co-creating value through
APIs at an accelerated pace and enterprises are starting to
explore them
Agile, scalable, and consumable business as-a-service will shift
the business services market similar to the shift of IT delivery
through cloud

31. APIs as a strategic business tool for value co-creation and front-office
digitization is growing in Fortune 1000 companies
+80B API Invocations per day
APIs registered across a
multitude of business areas
API-centric model is at the core of
mature born-on-the-web companies
like Amazon, Google, and facebook
Registrations in Programmable Web
have more than doubled this year.
At that pace we could see more
than 100,000 APIs registered by
2016.
By 2014, Gartner predicts that 75%
of Fortune 1000 companies will
expose some form of APIs

32. The API-centric, as-a-Service delivery is disrupting the consumption
of business services as Cloud disrupted the IT consumption model
Integrated Business
Functions
Business
Solutions
API-centric
Business Services
Packaged
Applications
As-a-service
delivery
Custom
Development
Composable Web
Long Project
Planning and
Development
Short Innovation
Lifecycle
API
API

34. The Web beyond the Browser
Web APIs are the new,
fast-growing business
channel
Businesses
Are Evolving
stores
(800) ###s
web sites
Not having an APIs will be like not having a Web Site in the 90s
“$7bn worth of items items on eBay through APIs”
“$7bn worth of on eBay through APIs”
Mark Carges (Ebay CTO)
Mark Carges (Ebay CTO)
The API which has easily 10 times more traffic then the website, has been really very
important to us.”
Biz Stone (Co-founder, Twitter)
“The adoption of Amazon’s Web services is currently driving more network activity
then everything Amazon does through their traditional web sites.”
Jeff Bar (Amazon evangelist) / Dion Hinchcliffe (Journalist)

35. New types of systems are being developed using different
engagement models
Systems of Record
Focus on Transactional integrity
Optimized performance
Quality of Service
Data Security
Typically a dedicated infrastructure
Pre-allocated capacity
Systems of Engagement
Focus on Agility and Rapid Scale
Workload mobility
Homogeneous standardization
Management simplicity
Shared infrastructure
Pay as you go capacity
Social platforms and mobility
user interface

36. Questions? :
Kerrie holley ; klholley@us.ibm.com
twitter.com/kerrieh
http://www.facebook.com/KerrieHolley
IBM
http://www03.ibm.com/developerworks/blogs/pag
e/ClientSOA