"Integrated science for integrated management: fairy tale or finally here?" by Phillip Levin, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, USA​ ICES ASC Plenary lecture Thursday 18 September 2014

1. Integrated Ecosystem Science
for
Integrated Ecosystem-based Management:
Fairy tale
or
Finally here?

3. f a i r y t a l e
an engaging story that ultimately requires a sequence of far-fetched events

5. Bocaccio Canary Rockfish
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Mean number per trawl
20
15
10
5
0
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Levin et al. (2006) Conservation Biology

6. Redbanded Rockfish Pacific Ocean Perch
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Mean number per trawl
45
35
25
15
5
0
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

7. that w a s t h e n
t h i s i s n o w

8. California Current Groundfish
Overfishing (unsustainable fishing mortality)
Overfished
(biomass
below limit)
Things are OK
from Levin & Wells (2012)

9. Then Now
42% of assessed groundfish overfished
Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA)

10. This success is the result of Ecosystem-based
• NO
Management (EBM) and IEAs, right?
– In general, this is good single-species
management
– Sometimes, informed by emerging
ecological knowledge

11. In conclusion
We don’t need
Integrated Ecosystem Assessments
Questions?

12. On the other hand
By definition,
s u s t a i n a b l e
fishing means k i l l i n g
lots of fish.

13. Mean Trophic Level of Groundfish
probably caused by combination of recruitment variability and fishing
Tolimieri , Samhouri, Levin (2014) Ecosystems

14. What is the impact of shifting (groundfish) trophic
level on ecosystem structure and function?
Pi /Bi
(Annual production
per unit biomass)
Diet composition
(1 – EE) • Pi /Bi
(Annual production
lost as detritus)
Qi /Bi
(Annual consumption
per unit biomass)
prey Detritus l
preyj
preyk
Yi
(Annual production
taken by fisheries)
Bi
(Biomass of
functional group i)
predatorz
predatorx
predatory Annual production
taken by predators;
based on predator
diets, B, Q/B
ecopath with ecosim

15. Response
Species group Instantaneous Dynamic (10 yr)
Phytoplankton 
small zooplankton 
carnivorous zooplankton  
amphipods  
krill  
jellies  
pandalid shrimp  
crabs  
squid  
forage fish  
salmon  
lower TL groundfish  
albacore 
seabirds 
harbor seals 
whales 
Tolimieri , Samhouri, Levin (2014) Ecosystems

16. Fishing can affect the ecosystem
Chorizo crusted cod
Biomass in the water

17. Chorizo crusted cod
Biomass in the water

18. Chorizo crusted cod
Biomass in the water

19. EBM Challenge
•Ecosystems provide a large
number of goods and services
•These services interact, often
in ways we don’t understand
•People place different values
on different services

20. What do we do?
Where do we do it?
How much?

21. Integrated Ecosystem
Assessments
• Science for i n t e g r a t e d ocean
& coastal management

22. w h a t is a healthy ecosystem?
i s the ecosystem health?
n o w what do we do?

23. What is a
healthy
ecosystem?
SCOPING
STAKEHOLDER
ENGAGEMENT
Is the
ecosystem
healthy?
ECOSYSTEM
STATUS
• INDICATORS
AND
REFERENCE
POINTS
• RISK
ASSESSMENT
Now what
do we do?
SCENARIO
ANALYSIS
• Evaluate the
likely tradeoffs
associated with
management
alternatives

25. What is an ecosystem (or species)?

26. Scientists, fishers, divers
“pile sort”

27. 0
20
40
60
80
100
Similarity
s t r u c t u r e o f f o l k t a x o n o m i e s
Salmon
Other
flatfish
Jellyfish
Copper
Redstripe
Greenstriped
Puget Sound
Other
forage
Seals
Crabs
Hake
Pollock
Cabezon
Sablefish
Ratfish
Lingcod
Cod
Kelp, Stag
Pile perch
Striped
Rockfish B
Dogfish
Orca
Sandlance
Dover,
Halibut
Rockfish A
Black
Beaudreau, Levin, Norman . 2012. Conservation Letters

28. Beaudreau, Levin, Norman . 2012. Conservation Letters
scientific taxonomy
folk taxonomies
(including fish biologists, divers, fishers)

29. e y e
o f t h e
b e h o l d e r
1977 2010
year
index of abundance

31. Fuzzy-Logic Cognitive Mapping (FCM) is a parameterized concept mapping where
qualitative static models that are translated into semi-quantitative dynamic models.
Adrian Stier et al. in prep

32. Adrian Stier et al. in prep
e

33. Food web structure differs
Adrian Stier et al. in prep

34. Adrian Stier et al. in prep

35. people (even fisheries scientists)
don’t
perceive
the world the same way
this can cause
confusion,
conflict,
chaos

36. If we want the EBM fairy tale to come true
E
B
M
we have to make sure we all hear the same
story

37. ecosystem-based management
targets
desired future state of the socio-ecological
system
what is a ‘good’ environment?

38. management targets are a
societal choice
informed by science
but how?

39. Ecological
Relationships
Societal
Preferences
Management Targets

40. Ecological
Relationships

41. Eelgrass

42. Puget Sound food web model
• 66 functional groups (bacteria to orcas) from Central Puget Sound
• 15 different fishery types
• Direct connections are mainly predator-prey interactions
• Strength of connections is a function of diets, consumption rates,
production rates and predator-prey functional responses
Harvey, Williams & Levin 2012 Ecosystems

43. Effects of eelgrass change on mediated groups
• Averaged across all mediation strength combinations (strong, moderate, weak)
• Wild, pink salmon groups most sensitive; effect carries to subadults
• Crab, hatchery salmon responses were intermediate
• Herring were least sensitive
Harvey, Williams & Levin 2012 Ecosystems

44. Effects of eelgrass change on rest of food web
Harvey, Williams & Levin 2012 Ecosystems

45. how much eelgrass do you want?
Societal
Preferences

46. Underwater
(Marine Life)
Rural Growth
Urban Development
Shorelines

47. Costs Costs
Eelgrass
Overwater
structure
Sediment
Loading
Nutrients
Shoreline
Armor
Herring Crabs
Birds
Killer
whales
Salmon
Rehr, Williams, Tolimieri, Levin 2014 Coastal Management

48. What is the effect of
changes in human activities
on eelgrass?
What is the effect of
changing eelgrass on
Puget Sound marine
life?
What does
this all cost?

49. Rehr, Williams,, Levin 2014 Marine Policy

51. 2
1
0
-1
-2
-35% -25% -15% 0% 10% 25% 45%
Average Desirability
Change is eelgrass cover
Levin, Rehr, Norman, & Wiliams in prep

52. 1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-35% -25% -15% 0% 10% 25% 45%
Average Desirability
Change in eelgrass cover
Democrats
Republicans

53. • given the diverse costs and benefits of
eelgrass restoration, Puget Sound citizens
would like to see 10-20% more eelgrass
• normative orientation influences preferred
restoration level, and
• policy makers will now have knowledge of
how different constituents view restoration

54. existential questions…
• does this reduce the influence of science?
• does this lead to less conservation?
• is this raising a white flag of surrender?
or
• is this the real world in a democracy?

55. If we want the EBM fairy tale to come true
we (scientists) can’t write the story alone

56. Telling the
EBM story

57. Woe is me…
No data…no certainty…no money…no this…not that

58. Ackoff, R. (1989) From data to wisdom. J. Appl Systems Analysis

59. How do we get from information to wisdom?

61. Herring roe
Purse seine
Herring roe-on-kelp
Gathered by hand

62. Age-structured simulation model of
herring and fishery
Herring Biology
• Constant adult mortality.
• Constant weight-at-age
• Sex ratio = 0.5.
• Variable recruitment
• Unfished Biomass (B0; 24,000 mt females)
Fishery
• Fishery closes at 0.2B0
Shelton, Samhouri, Stier, Levin in review

63. 451!
452!
Roe harvest via purse seine
453! Figure 3: Consequences of adult and egg harvest strategies on the herring fisheries. a)
454! Mean catch of spawning biomass (mt), b) mean catch of eggs (trillions), c) the proportion
Roe-on-kelp harvest
Shelton, Samhouri, Stier, Levin in review

64. If I am willing to accept a 10% risk of the fishery closing,
what is the “safe operating space” ?
Providing for predators
Ignoring prey needs of
predators
probability of fisheries closure and Becosystem for all
Shelton, Samhouri, Stier, Levin in review

65. Even donkeys can be useful
These are timely results… the more modeling that is encompassing and holistic, the
better
– Council of the Haida Nation
We are really excited about this herring model. It will be useful as we think about
herring conservation this year
-Parks Canada

66. If we want the EBM fairy tale to come true
We must answer the questions that managers ask, but also the
questions that should have asked

67. An IEA Fairy tale
can come true if
• We engage stakeholders, managers, & policy makers
early, often and continually
• We conduct rigorous human dimensions research as a
core component of IEAs (not an add-on)
• We don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good
• Embrace realistic expectations about IEA science
• Serve current management needs, but not at the
expense of more integrative ocean management
Samhouri, Haupt, Levin, Link, Shuford 2013 ICES J Mar Sci

68. In a utilitarian age, of all other times, it is a matter of grave
importance that fairy tales should be respected."
~Charles Dickens~
"If you want your children to be intelligent, read them fairy tales.
If you want them to be more intelligent, read them more fairy
tales.”
~Albert Einstein~

70. Key Ecosystem
Components
Mediating
Components
Drivers and
Pressures
Ecological Integrity
Fisheries, protected
species, biodiversity
Human Ac vi es
Ins tu ons &
Governance
Habitat
Climate & Ocean
Drivers
Human Wellbeing
Health & safety
Autonomy & self-sufficiency
Socio-cultural rela onships
Economic condi ons
Broad Social, Poli cal &
Economic Forces

71. Why Assess Human Wellbeing?
• Understand the human dimensions of the ecosystem --
beyond commercial revenue
• Develop management strategies that work for people
• Meet legal & policy requirements -- & ethical obligations
• Identify & understand trade-offs
• Maintain & improve the wellbeing of people
-- in ways that also maintain & improve the integrity of
ecosystems