1. David Pearson Laurentian University ICLEI Edmonton 17 June, 2009 Bailing out the Planet

2. After IPCC 2007 beyond collective adaptation Limits to adaptation - cumulative critical impacts EU goal “ dangerous” Inevitable intolerable

4. 1993-2003 ≈ 30 mm = 3.0 mm/yr; compare 1910-1990 = 1.5±0.5 mm/yr. Sea-level rise is accelerating mm ACIA, 2004 From Holdren 2007

5. Raising the temperature of 1 km of water at 20 0 C by 1 0 C will cause it to expand by about 20 cm

6. Clathrates – methane ice … a temperature sensitive sleeping giant in sea floor sediments

7. Absorption of Sun’s energy by a greater area of open water warms the region …. melting permafrost and releasing methane that, in turn, accelerates warming 1979 2003 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

8. Permafrost thaws when T ≥ 0°C ACIA 2004 Methane bubbles In ice on a permafrost lake Katey Walter Permafrost is thawing

9. Andrew Weaver Emissions are rising faster than the worst of the IPCC Scenarios (A1FI)

10. What science projects about the next 100 years compared to the last 400 Coloured lines pre-2000 are proxy-based temperature reconstructions by different groups. Gray wedge for 2000-2100 shows the range of IPCC global average projections based on different emission scenarios (A2) The recent ghg emission trend ( blue arrow) leads by 2100 to temperatures not reached since ~3 million years ago when sea level was 25 - 30m higher. Jumps in the trend may result from abrupt C releases The European Union’s global goal ( green emission trend) is not to exceed 2 ºC above pre-industrial temp: the onset of “dangerous climate change” likely too late. B1 After John Holdren 2007 ~ 400 ppm

11. 2050 2009 14 7 Billion of tons of carbon in CO2 and methane emitted per year 1955 0 Past emissions 2100 Initial reduction of emissions using improved existing technologies Stabilizing global avge temp rise below 2 0 C is an unprecedented technological, political, ethical, and social challenge Emissions peak 2020 - 2030 Deep reduction with new low C technologies David Pearson (Developed from Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow 2005) 2080 tripling CO2 Emissions 60 – 80% below 1990 level Beyond limits to adaptation ADAPTATION

12. Global Commons Institute

14. Carbon stored in Alberta’s Oil Sands 170 billion barrels of oil 420 kg of CO 2 equivalent per barrel = 18 billion tonnes of Carbon (D.P.) per Alberta’s Oil Sands Forests of Papua New Guinea

15. Change in run-off water availability in 2050 compared with 1961-1990 (emission scenario A1)

16. Evaporation of water from reservoirs has exceeded consumption since the 1970s

17. Easterling and Apps, 2005 Temperate-zone crop yields start dropping at local ∆T ≥ 1-2°C Drops are more gradual than in tropics, but still significant. Where we’re headed: temperate-zone agriculture

18. Easterling and Apps, 2005 Crop yields in tropics start dropping at local ∆T ≥ 1-1.5°C Where we’re headed: agriculture in the tropics Rice Corn

19. Major floods per decade from 1950 - 2000 John Holdren 2007

20. John Holdren 2007 Major wildfires by decade 1950 - 2000

21. Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Management for Adaptation Informed Decision Making Informed Decision Making Informed Decision Making Informed Decision Making OCCIAR 2009 Analyse Current Climate Impacts and Vulnerability Analyse Climate Data and Scenarios Build Adaptive Capacity Assess Climate Change Risk Implement Risk Reduction, Monitor, Evaluate and Adjust Risk Reduction Method & Plan Development