48V Mild Hybrid by IDTechEx at Automechanika

Copyright © 2015 IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com
Mild Hybrid 48V Vehicles 2016-2031
Dr Peter Harrop / www.IDTechEx.com / p.harrop@idtechex.com

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The only quick, low-cost way of keeping most conventional vehicles legal under tighter
emissions regulations 2025/2030. In the decade 2016-2026 and maybe to 2031, there may be more
48V MH cars made than strong hybrid and pure electric cars combined. Volume sales begin in
2017.
In its most advanced form it promises brief pure electric drive for smooth and silent take-off,
parking, creeping and sailing (active coasting). That meets the definition of an electric vehicle.

Primary motivation is emissions reduction meeting the onerous 2025 and 2030 regulations more easily and more
affordably than by EV (ie strong hybrid or pure electric). Otherwise impossible for conventional powertrains beyond those for
small vehicles. Reduces CO2 emissions by 10-20%, depending on the test cycle. Attractiveness of 48V mild hybrids to OEMs
is enhanced by the forthcoming Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure & Cycle (WLTP/WLTC).
48V mild hybrids will be 50-75% cheaper than full hybrids (Valeo).
Hyundai estimates 25% of cost of a full hybrid but a weight penalty of 46kg.
48V devices and interconnects are smaller and lighter eg wiring harnesses - four times the voltage means the current
reduced by a magnitude of four, so wire diameter can be reduced or Cu replaced with cheaper Al.
Secondary benefit improving performance and pleasure more easily and affordably than by EV. This secondary benefit
gives such things as improved acceleration, ride (active suspension), quietness (engine downsized/ downspeeded, silent pure
electric take-off, silent stop-start.)
Great development potential eg handle many more clients and sources (regen. And energy harvesting from ambient energy
Why 48V “mild hybrid” architecture for conventional internal combustion engine vehicle?

Source Continental with
IDTechEx quote
AB Elektronik recently showed 20kW route

Existing 12V cars and 24V trucks and buses had almost run out of development potential
Cannot accept the hundreds and thousands of kilowatts from regenerative braking and
other regeneration (thermoelectric, exhaust turbine, regenerative suspension etc)
Cannot provide the 15 kW for more and more electrification for better ride, economy,
emissions. (supercharger, air conditioning, pumps..)
Cannot ever drive the wheels electrically – no electric motor, not enough power
INADEQUATE POWER HANDLING AND STORAGE. 12V/24 does not scale up.

Replace the engine with a smaller downspeeded one
Replace the alternator with a reversing electric
machine that can boost the engine when needed
(“torque assist”) accept full regen braking, start the
engine and later drive the wheels briefly pure electric.
Jargon “Boost Recuperation Machine”/ “Belt Drive
Starter Generator BSG”. “Integrated Starter
Generator ISG”.
Two way DC-DC converter lets the above machine
charge on demand both the existing 12V battery and
an added 48V battery
Add a large 48V battery such as a lithium-ion battery
that has higher energy density and is a bit bigger than
the existing lead acid battery but lighter with 4X
storage. It can power the car along on its own for brief
intervals
How to make a 48V mild hybrid in latest form for a car Add a high
capacity high
power density
48V battery
eg Li-ion or
advanced
lead-acid
For now, keep
the 12V PbA
battery for
safety critical
operations and
ones too
expensive to
convert
2 way
DC-DC
inverter

Car accepts, provides and stores four times as much electricity.
More electrical outputs:
Electrify devices that further reduce emissions and improve performance and comfort –
Power steering, aircon, supercharger…..)
More electrical inputs:
Fully efficient regenerative braking
Solar, infrared, wind, turbine in exhaust, thermoelectric on exhaust, triboelectric tires,
energy harvesting shock absorbers/ active suspension……..
Result

Image source Continental November 2015
First generation 48V system: belt drive starter generator gives torque assist (boost for 60%
engine down sizing) but usually no PEV modes. Much work done by the old 12V battery system.

Not just
cars!
Source Green Car
Congress

The show so far: adoption of electrified powertrains
Application Reason
Buses, golf cars, microcars,
microEVs, mobility for disabled,
bikes, motorbikes, small boats,
autonomous underwater
vehicles, small aircraft including
drones, airships, military land
water air
Emissions illegal indoors, increasingly unacceptable in city
centers and impracticable under water. PEVs can be Energy
Independent Vehicles EIV that never plug in. Best rider
experience. Only practicable option for most Autonomous
Vehicles AV and extreme stop-start cycles. For military: stealth,
minimal heat or noise emissions for missiles to home in on, easy
provision of redundancy for attack tolerance
Upgrading of conventional cars
and trucks
Cost-effective, rapid meeting of new emissions regulations while
improving rider experience
Cars, trucks, some large buses,
aircraft, motorbikes, mining,
construction, agriculture, military,
outdoor forklifts
Good fuel economy/ emissions, heavy duty cycles without
severe range limitation in affordable form. However, large hybrid
buses are losing out to pure electric as urban PEV range
becomes adequate and PEV mode is increasingly demanded in
city centers. Contrast large hybrid trucks which need much
longer range and have minimal stop start.

Almost all mild hybrids are being standardised on 48V
By far the biggest market these will be for on-road vehicles, notably cars and
trucks but there will be off-road and marine applications
All leading manufacturers of conventional cars are working on 48V mild hybrid
versions primarily because they see it as the best way of meeting more
onerous emissions legislation in the 2025-2030 timeframe.
Automotive companies prioritise 48V mild hybrid very differently as
exemplified below.
Powertrain electrification priorities of automotive companies for the next ten
years
Best solutions for market needs 2016-2030
Prioritising 48V mild
hybrid
Prioritising full hybrid
and pure electric but
doing many 48V mild
hybrid
Prioritising full hybrid
and pure electric and
doing few 48V mild
hybrid
Prioritising pure
electric and full hybrid
and nothing else
Doing pure electric
and nothing else
Volkswagen
GM
Fiat Chrysler
Mercedes
Suzuki
Volvo Trucks
Hyundai
Toyota
Proton
Mazda
Honda
Ford
BMW
Nissan
Yutong
Geely
CSR Times
BAIC
BYD Tesla
Terra Motors
Pihsiang
Zero Motorcycles
Polaris Industries
Charlatte

Different views concerning dual 12V + 48V systems expressed in our 2016 interviews and events
Window of opportunity
for 48V mild hybrids 10
years
Well over 10 years
Vocis
GKN
Volkswagen
Continental
CSA Group
CPT
EPS
48V alone will be dominant
in a few years from now
Dual voltage systems will
be popular for at least ten
years
GM
Ford
UK automotive professor
Energy Power Systems
CSA Group (“possible”)
GKN
Volkswagen
Audi
Continental
Bosch
Daimler
Hella
MDL Technologies
Romax Technology
Continental
CPT

Electric cars (strong hybrid and pure electric cars) vs 48V mild hybrid and conventional cars: number K 2014-2031
48V mild hybrid never takes 100% of the conventional car market because some small cars will meet emissions laws without it and
some countries will have loosely enforced legislation. Only IDTechEx forecasts EVs in 46 categories land water air.
Pure
electric for
long
periods
Torque assist (boost)
permits engine
downsize.
Four brief pure
electric modes
available in later years
Often with
stop start
Collapse could be
earlier if Apple/ Tesla
style pure electric
buying frenzy occurs
(like smart phones)
Possible saturation or drop in total
market if rental/ use-on-demand
widely used eg in China

Global interest in 48V mild hybrids, particularly for C and D cars. First sales 2017. B
cars, light commercial and trucks later.
48V mild hybrids will be the lowest cost way of meeting 2025/ 2030 emissions laws
Expect big success. Conventional ICE becomes illegal, strong hybrids that do not plug
in too expensive. Weight and cost a bit higher than conventional initially.
48V mild hybrids will have 1 or 2 integrated starter-generators within a few years
permitting up to 4 PEV modes ie they will become “electric vehicles” with pure electric
takeoff, creep, active coasting, parking. 2019 onwards?
A possible lithium-ion battery famine in a few years will assist sales of 48V mild
hybrids because they use a relatively small lithium-ion battery or none at all (advanced
lead acid)
Suitable electrically driven consumers are available and affordable.
Suitable new forms of regeneration and external harvesting are being developed.
Power handling will rise to 20kW. Lead-acid battery will go. 1kWh Li-ion wins.
By 2035, pure electric vehicles will kill most hybrids including 48V.
Conclusions

Read the new IDTechEx reports,
“Mild Hybrid 48V Vehicles 2016-2031”
“Future Powertrains 2016-2026”
“Electric Vehicle Traction Motors, Belt Driven & Integrated Starter
Generators 2016-2026”
For more

Supporting your strategic business
decisions on emerging technologies
Offices:
USA: +1 617 577 7890 Germany: +49 3991 669 3591
UK: +44 (0)1223 812 300 Japan: +81 90 5566 1533 www.IDTechEx.com
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Dr. Peter Harrop
p.harrop@IDTechEx.com

48V Mild Hybrid by IDTechEx at Automechanika

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