The document discusses power-to-hydrogen pathways and system analysis for future energy systems. It describes the following: 1) The IEA HIA Task 38, which aims to provide comprehensive analysis of technical, economic, legal and regulatory conditions for power-to-hydrogen and hydrogen-to-X applications. 2) The Department of Process and System Analysis (VSA) at Forschungszentrum Jülich, which conducts research on renewable energies, storage infrastructures, transport, industry and residential sectors. 3) Simulation, time series aggregation and optimization methods used by VSA to assess energy systems with power-to-hydrogen pathways.

1. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft
Spatio-temporal Models for the Analysis
of Future Energy Systems with Power to Hydrogen
Pathways
Martin Robinius, Lara Welder, Leander Kotzur
Jochen Linßen, Peter Markewitz, Detlef Stolten
m.robinius@fz-juelich.de
71th SEMI-ANNUAL ETSAP MEETING
10th July 2017, Washington DC
Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering (IEK-3)

2. Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering 2
- The IEA HIA Task 38
- The Department of Process- and System Analysis (VSA)
- Status of the “Energiewende” in Germany
- Selected Highlights of the VSA
- Simulation
- Time Series Aggregation
- Optimization
Table of contents

3. Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering 3
Over 50 experts from 34 organizations in 15 countries
Major objectives:
- To provide a comprehensive understanding of the various technical and
economic pathways for power-to-hydrogen applications in diverse
situations
- To provide a comprehensive assessment of existing legal frameworks
- To provide business developers and policy makers with general
guidelines and recommendations that enhance hydrogen system
deployment in energy markets
The Task 38 of the IEA HIA
Power-to-Hydrogen and Hydrogen-to-X:
System Analysis of the techno-economic, legal and regulatory conditions
M. Robinius, L. Welder, S. Ryberg, C. Mansilla, M. Balan, F. Dolci, R. Dickinson, R. Gammon, P. Lucchese, N.D. Meeks, A. Pereira, S.
Samsatli, J. Simon, O. Tlili, S. Valentin, E. Weidner (2017): Power-to-Hydrogen and Hydrogen-to-X: Which markets? Which economic
potential? Answers from the literature. 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market, Dresden Germany

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The Task 38 of the IEA HIA
Power-to-Hydrogen and Hydrogen-to-X:
System Analysis of the techno-economic, legal and regulatory conditions
Subtask Subtask Name Subtask Leader Subtask Activities
1
Management, strategy
and communication
Paul Lucchese and
Christine Mansilla, CEA,
France
- Involving new experts
- Coordination (meeting organization, private
website update, ST/TF activity follow-up)
- Interfacing (IEA, HyLaw, Task 36,
CEN/CENELEC)
2
Mapping and review of
existing demonstration
projects
Joris Proost, Université
Catholique de Louvain,
Belgium
- Review of existing databases
- Proposal of a roadmap
3A
Review and analysis of
the existing techno-
economic studies on
PtH HtX
Martin Robinius,
Forschungszentrum
Jülich, Germany
- Literature review and analysis
- Database establishment
3B
Review of the existing
legal context and policy
measures
Francesco Dolci, JRC,
European Commission
- Review of existing legal frameworks and policy
measures
- Database establishment for mapping relevant
national legislation
4
Systemic approach
Sheila Samsatli,
University of Bath,
United Kingdom
- Analysis of energy system models
- Outlook for hydrogen from a system
perspective
5 Case studies
Gema Alcalde and Carlos
Funez, Centro Nacional
del Hidrógeno, Spain
- Identification and analysis of relevant case
studies

5. Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering 5
Who we are
 Process and Systems Analysis (VSA)
Head of Depatment: Dr.-Ing. Martin Robinius
Renewable
Energies, and
Storage
Infrastructures TransportResidental
Sector
Industry
Areas of Expertise VSA:
Jochen Linßen Dr.-Ing. Peter Markewitz Dr.-Ing. Thomas Grube

6. Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering 6
- The IEA HIA Task 38
- The Department of Process- and System Analysis (VSA)
- Status of the “Energiewende” in Germany
- Selected Highlights of the VSA
- Simulation
- Time Series Aggregation
- Optimization

7. Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering 7
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
GHGemissions
CO2.-equivalent[Mt]
The overall GHG emission goals of Germany require a holistic
transformation of all sectors
GHG Emissions in Germany since 1990 [1] Goals of the BRD in
reference to 1990 [2]
60%
45%
30%
5-20%
2020 2030 2040 2050
[1] BMWi, Zahlen und Fakten Energiedaten - Nationale und Internationale Entwicklung. 2016, Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und
Energie: Berlin.
[2] BRD, Energiekonzept für eine umweltschonende, zuverlässige und bezahlbare Energieversorgung, Bundeskabinett. 2010: Berlin.
[3] UN, Paris Agreement - COP21, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 2015: Paris.
COP21
Paris [3]
Mobility
Industry and commerce
Residential
Others
Power Sector
43%
34%
21% 15%
3%
MobilityIndustry/
commerce
Resi-
dential
Others Power
Sector
GHG emission reduction per sector 1990 to 2013 [1]
The mobility sector lags
behind in comparison to
the achieved emission
reductions of the other
sectors.
>2050
0%

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The National Climate Action Plan 2016
Source: Klimaschutzplan 2050 – Klimaschutzpolitische Grundsätze und Ziele der Bundesregierung vom 14.11.2016
1990
tCO2eq
2014
tCO2eq
2014 vs. 1990 Goals 2030
tCO2eq
Goals 2030
vs. 1990
Conversion 466 358 - 23,2 % 175 - 183 62 – 61 %
Buildings 209 119 - 43,1 % 70 - 72 67 – 66 %
Transport 162 160 - 1,2 % 95 - 98 42 – 40 %
Industry 283 181 - 36 % 140 - 143 51 – 49 %
Agriculture 88 72 - 18,2 % 58 - 61 34 – 31 %
Others 39 12 - 69 % 5 87 %
Summe 1248 902 - 27,7 % 543 - 562 56 – 55%

9. Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering 9
- The IEA HIA Task 38
- The Department of Process- and System Analysis (VSA)
- Status of the “Energiewende” in Germany
- Selected Highlights of the VSA
- Simulation
- Time Series Aggregation
- Optimization

10. Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering 10
VSA Highlights
10
[1] Otto, A., Robinius, M., Grube, T., Schiebahn, S., Praktiknjo, A., & Stolten, D. (2017). Power-to-Steel: Reducing CO2 through the Integration of Renewable Energy and
Hydrogen into the German Steel Industry. Energies, 10(4), 451. [2] Welder, L., Ryberg, S., Kotzur, L., Grube, T., Robinius, M., & Stolten, D. (2017). Spatio-Temporal
Optimization of a Future Energy System for Power-to-Hydrogen Applications in Germany (submitted) [3] Kotzur, L., Markewitz, P., Robinius, M., & Stolten, D. (2017).
Impact of different time series aggregation methods on optimal energy system design (submitted) [4] Reuß, M., Grube, T., Robinius, M., Preuster, P., Wasserscheid, P.,
& Stolten, D. (2017). Seasonal storage and alternative carriers: A flexible hydrogen supply chain model. Applied Energy, 200, 290-302.
Flexible hydrogen supply model [4]
Aggregated time series [3] First Product:
Open Software for time series aggregation
Aggregated optimization model for
industry and mobility sectors [2]
Power-to-Steel [1]1
2
3
4

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- The IEA HIA Task 38
- The Department of Process- and System Analysis (VSA)
- Status of the “Energiewende” in Germany
- Selected Highlights of the VSA
- Simulation
- Time Series Aggregation
- Optimization

12. Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering 12
Assessment based on municipal level and an hourly resolution of grid load and RES feed-in
RES power [GW | TWh]: onshore: 170 | 350; offshore: 59 | 231; PV: 55 | 47; hydro: 6 | 21; bio: 7 | 44
Further assumptions: grid electricity: 528 TWh; imports: 28 TWh; exports: 45 TWh; pos. residual: natural gas
„Copper plate“ & 40 GWh pumped hydro: 191 TWh (→ 4.0 million tH2)
Grid capacity constraints considered: 293 TWh (→ 6.2 million tH2)
RES: Renewable Energy Sources
All values after Robinius, M. (2016): Strom- und Gasmarktdesign zur Versorgung des deutschen Straßenverkehrs mit Wasserstoff.
Dissertation RWTH Aachen University, ISBN: 978-3-95806-110-1
Electrical Grid
380 and 220 kV
Conventional
Power Plants
Residual load Load ∑ RES
(Example PV only)
= -
Neg. RL (Surplus)
Positive residual load
The Year 2050 – Energy Concept 2.0Power-Sector

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Linking the Power and Transport Sector
Residual energy
[MWh/km²]
Negative residual energy
(Surplus)
Positive residual energy

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Energy Concept 2.0
Assessment based on county level
FCV [kg/100 km]: 0.92 (2010) → 0.58 (2050) [1], linear decrease
FCV fleet: curve fit; until 2033 according to [2]; maximum share in 2050: 75 % of German fleet
Further assumptions: 14,000 km annual mileage 12 years lifetime; total vehicle stock: 44 million cars
Peak annual H2 demand: 2.93 million tH2 (2052) (Surplus 2050 Copper plate scenario  4.0 million tH2)
H2Demand/a
All values after Robinius, M. (2016): Strom- und Gasmarktdesign zur Versorgung des deutschen Straßenverkehrs mit Wasserstoff and
Tietze, V.: Techno-ökonomische Bewertung von pipelinebasierten Wasserstoffversorgungssystemen für den deutschen Straßenverkehr, to
be published except: [1] GermanHy (2009), Scenario “Moderat” [2] H2-Mobility, time scale shifted 2 years into the future [3] Krieg, D.
(2012), Konzept und Kosten eines Pipelinesystems zur Versorgung des
deutschen Straßenverkehrs mit Wasserstoff.
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 - 3
3 - 4
4 - 5
5 - 6
6 - 8
8 - 11
11 - 19
19 - 30
30 - 45
45 - 148
Hydrogen Demand
[103 t/a]
FCV[Million]
HydrogenDemand[Milliont]
Peak-Year 2052
Number of cars
Population density
Useable income of private households …
High
Hydrogen
Demand
- Target is 75 % of total passenger
cars are FCV
 32.9 million FCV in 2050
- Reference points are based on
H2Mobility
# based on:
S-Curve based on:

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Energy Concept 2.0
Assessment based on county level
H2 sources: 28 GW electrolysis power in 15 districts in Northern Germany, 15 billion €
H2 sinks: 9,968 refueling stations with averaged sales of 803 kg/d, 20 billion €
H2 storage: 48 TWh (incl. 60 day reserve), 8 billion €
Pipeline invest [3]: 6.7 billion € (12,104 km transmission grid); 12 billion € (29,671 km distribution grid)
Electricity cost: LCOE Onshore: 5.8 ct/kWh;
Total H2 cost (pre-tax): 17.5 ct/kWh WACC: 8 %
Results
All values after Robinius, M. (2016): Strom- und Gasmarktdesign zur Versorgung des deutschen Straßenverkehrs mit Wasserstoff.
Dissertation RWTH Aachen University, ISBN: 978-3-95806-110-1; except: [3] Krieg, D. (2012), Konzept und Kosten eines
Pipelinesystems zur Versorgung des deutschen Straßenverkehrs mit Wasserstoff. Forschungszentrum Jülich IEK-3
Transmission
Hubs
Distribution
Neg. RL (Surplus)
High Hydrogen Demand
Electrolyzer
Node
Electrical line
Countie with surplus

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8,9 8,4
3,4
1,3
3,3
1,9
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
Wind power
(5,9 ct/kWh)
Elektrolysis
H2 at pump
(appreciable cost)
Gasoline
(70 ct/l)
Natural gas
(2,5 ct/kWh)
Wind powe
(5,9 ct/kWh
Electrolysi
Grid feed-
Costofhydrogen,ct€/kWh
OPEX
Interest cost
Depreciation cost
Energy cost
H2 appreciable cost
Gasoline/NG, pre tax
22
(0,7 kg/100km)
17,5
16*
(1,0 kg/100km)
8.0
2.5
10,8
CAPEX via depreciation of investment plus interest
 10 a for electrolysers and other production devices
 40 a for transmission grid
 20 a for distribution grid and refueling stations
 Interest rate 8.0 % p.a.
Other Assumptions:
 2.9 million tH2/a from renewable power via electrolysis
 Electrolysis: η = 70 %LHV, 28 GW; investment cost 500 €/kW
 Methanation: η = 80 %LHV
• Appreciable cost @ half the specific fuel consumption
[1] Energy Concept 2.0
Hydrogen for Transportation
Cost Comparison of Power to Gas Options – Pre-tax
Hydrogen for Transportation with a Dedicated Hydrogen Infrastructure
is Economically Reasonable

17. Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering 17
- The IEA HIA Task 38
- The Department of Process- and System Analysis (VSA)
- Status of the “Energiewende” in Germany
- Selected Highlights of the VSA
- Simulation
- Time Series Aggregation
- Optimization

18. Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering 18
Impact of time series aggregation on optimal energy system
design[1]
Considered residential supply systems Prediction error of the system cost for
different number of typical days
[1] Kotzur, L., P. Markewitz, M. Robinius and D. Stolten (2017). Impact of different time series aggregation methods on optimal
energy system design, Forschungszentrum Jülich, IEK-3 – UNPUBLISHED.
Go to: https://github.com/FZJ-IEK3-VSA/tsam

19. Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering 19
- The IEA HIA Task 38
- The Department of Process- and System Analysis (VSA)
- Status of the “Energiewende” in Germany
- Selected Highlights of the VSA
- Simulation
- Time Series Aggregation
- Optimization

20. Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering 20
Optimization
Techno-economic data
Cost parameters
depending on the
technology design
Weather data
Wind speeds
and
solar radiation
Demand data
For electricity and
hydrogen, resolved
on the district level
Eligible land
For wind turbines,
pipelines, and salt
caverns
Case studies
Thermodynamic modelling
• Pressure drop along pipeline
• Technology design and de-
termination of operating limits
Complexity reduction
• Time series aggregation
• Decomposition algorithms
• Network reduction
Spatio-Temporal Optimization Optimization output
Energy system’s cost
Capital and operational cost
contribution from each technology
Structure and design
Placement and size of
each technology for
each considered region
Operation
Operation modes/
inventories of the
technologies
Recommendations
Recommend feasible and cost-
effective scenarios
Point out value of key technologies
min Total annual costs
s.t. demand & technical con-
straints are considered
MethodologyInvestigated system Output
• “The value of X” analyses (X
not included in superstructure)
• Sensitivity analyses
,
Figures from:
Lara Welder, D. Severin Ryberg, Leander Kotzur, Thomas Grube, Martin Robinius, Detlef Stolten (2017): Spatio-Temporal Optimization of a Future Energy System for Power-to-
Hydrogen Applications in Germany. (submitted)
Robinius (2015) Strom- und Gasmarktdesign zur Versorgung des deutschen Straßenverkehrs mit Wasserstoff.

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Investigation of a green field scenario for a Power-to-Mobility (2.9 Mio. tH2/year) and Power-
to-Industry (1.1 Mio. tH2/year) applications in Germany*.
SELECTED RESULTS[1]
Even when adding distribution costs (3.4 €/kgH2),
costs are below current hydrogen price (9.5 €/kgH2)
at German fueling stations.
Value of salt caverns in the energy system:
The costs increase by 1.5 €/kgH2 if the construction
of salt caverns is prohibited during optimization.
Optimization of a Future Energy System for “Power-to-Mobility”
and “Power-to-Industry” Applications in Germany
Illustrative optimization results[1]
* Technology options: Onshore wind turbines, electrolyzers, salt caverns, vessels, pipelines.
Demands: PtM 2.9 Mio. tH2/year, PtI (1.1 Mio. tH2/year), no electricity demand.
[1] Lara Welder, D. Severin Ryberg, Leander Kotzur, Thomas Grube, Martin Robinius, Detlef Stolten (2017): Spatio-Temporal Optimization of a Future Energy System for Power-to-
Hydrogen Applications in Germany. (submitted)
Installed capacities: wind turbines 79.1 GW,
electrolyzers 47.6 GW, salt caverns 10.3 TWh.

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Thank you for your attention
Process and Systems Analysis (VSA)
Dr. Martin Robinius
Head of VSA
m.robinius@fz-juelich.de
Prof. Dr. Detlef Stolten
Head of IEK-3
d.stolten@fz-juelich.de
Dr. Bernd Emonts
Deputy Head of IEK-3
b.emonts@fz-juelich.de
Dr. Thomas Grube
Transport
th.grube@fz-juelich.de
Jochen Linßen
Infrastructure and
Sector Coupling
Dr. Peter Markewitz
Stationary Energy Systems
p.markewitz@fz-juelich.de