Assessment of the long-term potential of 'power to hydrogen' in the energy system of Belgium during 2020-2050 using TIMES model

1. Assessment of the long-term potential of
‘power to hydrogen’ in the energy system of
Belgium during 2020-2050 using TIMES model
Presented by
Mohammed Abi Afthab Olikathodi
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Supervisers from EUF
Prof. Dr. Bernd Möller
Dipl- Ing. Wulf Boie
Supervisers from VITO
Dr Anjana Das
Mr Jan Duerinck

2. Agenda
Background.
Methodology.
Discussion on modelling.
Results.
Conclusions
Potential Demand for H2– Transportation & Industrial sectors.Questions?
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3. Hydrogen – Situation in Belgium
Only 3 hydrogen refueling stations and 23 H2 vehicles
so far.
Industrial feedstock demand mainly in refineries &
ammonia plants
Captive plants, merchant plants and as byproducts
Predominantly produced by steam methane reforming
Source: (The Brussels Times, 2019)
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4. Introduction to the study
Evaluate the potential of power to hydrogen (H2
from low carbon grid electricity) in Belgium.
More focus on supply side – production of H2 using
electrolysis.
Centralised or Onsite Production? How much
capacity required? How much investment?
Water electrolysis – Alkaline or PEM electrolysis?
Electrolysis or steam methane reforming for
industries?
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5. 5
METHODOLOGY

6. Reference Energy System
with Hydrogen
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7. Scenarios – electricity demand & carbon
prices
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Scenarios 2030 2040 2050
REF 35 78 100
GHGEERES30 11 55 152
Carbon prices in Euro/ton of CO2

8. DISCUSSION ON MODELLING
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9. Hydrogen Demand (Exogenous Input)
• Transportation: The number of FCEV cars in 2050 is approx. 20 % of
the total number of vehicles.
• Industries: demand estimated based on existing demand (0.4
Milliontonne) considered based on various studies.
Period FCEV
CARS
% of
total
cars
Trucks % of
total
trucks
2025 7500 0.13 500 0.1
2030 30000 0.5 3000 0.4
2050 1375000 21 30000 3
Source: van der Laak 2015
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10. Hydrogen Fuel Chain Modelled in TIMES
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11. Hydrogen for Mobility- Onsite
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Source: own developed; logontoyota.com;oranacarandtruck.com

12. Hydrogen for Mobility- Centralised with
tubetrailer delivery
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Source: own developed; logontoyota.com;oranacarandtruck.com

13. Industrial Feedstock Production- Onsite
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Source: own developed

14. RESULTS
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15. Results – Transportation Sector
• Decentralised production
with alkaline electrolyser
dominates the hydrogen
production.
• However, share of centralised
mode increases as the
electricity mix gets
decarbonized and hydrogen
demand increases in long
term.
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16. Investment Required for Hydrogen Refuelling
Infrastructure - Transportation Sector
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Around 2.5 GW electrolyser
capacity required by 2050
This will incur around 5.5 billion
euro investments required

17. Cost Breakdown - centralised mode H2
production in 2050 for transportation
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Total = 12.55
Euro/kg
Source: Own calculated from TIMES results
Electricity
cost
dominates
the total cost

18. Total avoided emissions in transportation
18Source: Owned calculated from TIMES results

19. Results related to industrial sector
• In industry sector – Alkaline electrolysers started to be
competitive with steam methane reforming from 2040.
• Onsite production was found to be the least cost option.
• Centralised mode may not have been preferred because the
industrial H2 demand profile was kept constant.
• Approximately, cumulative emission reduction of 15 million ton
of CO2 in both the scenarios.
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20. Share of hydrogen produced by SMR and
Alkaline electrolysers in industrial sector
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Source: Owned calculated from TIMES results

21. Price Duration Curve with electrolyers and
without electrolysers
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The lower duration of lower power prices
would improve revenue of renewables Source: Owned calculated from TIMES results

22. A note on comparison b/w Alkaline & PEM
electrolysers
• Partial load characteristics were modelled using TIMES extension for
dispatching & unit commitment.
• PEM electrolysers were never found to be competitive with alkaline
electrolysers.
• Cannot draw conclusion based on this result as the model always
made the electrolysers work without any partial load efficiency drop.
• A MILP approach would be required to compare the alkaline & PEM
electrolysers.
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23. Conclusion
Although grid connected electrolysers increases the emissions in early
years, this has a potential to reduce emissions in the long term when the
electricity mix is highly decarbonized
Centralised mode of production becomes relevant when there is large H2
demand and when there is large share of renewables.
Power to hydrogen can help more renewables penetration.
However, Belgium should accelerate decarbonizing its electricity mix.
Import of green H2 , alternative H2 production like green H2 production
from off-grid electrolysers, blue production from SMR (with CCUS) and
pyrolysis should also be explored
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24. THANK YOU
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25. References
• Hydrogenics (no date) Electrolysis | Hydrogenics. Available at: https://www.hydrogenics.com/technology-
resources/hydrogen-technology/electrolysis/ (Accessed: 21 July 2019).
• Van der Laak, W., Martens, I. F. en A. and Stefan, N. (2015) National Implementation Plan: Hydrogen
Refuelling Infrastructure Belgium.
• Maisonnier, G. et al. (2007) European hydrogen infrastructure atlas and industrial excess hydrogen analysis.
PART III : Industrial distribution infrastructure, Roads2HyCom. Available at: https://www.ika.rwth-
aachen.de/r2h/images/c/c8/Roads2HyCom_R2H2007PU_-_(Part_III)_-_Industrial_H2_Distribution.pdf.
• Martens, I. F. en A. and Vanhoudt, T. W. en W. (2018) Het potentieel voor groene waterstof in Vlaanderen Een
routekaart.
• Münch, K. et al. (2016) Grid Integrated Multi Megawatt High Pressure Alkaline Electrolysers for Energy
Applications.
• The Brussels Times (2019) ‘More hydrogen filling stations to be installed in Flanders’, The Brussels Times.
Available at: https://www.brusselstimes.com/brussels-2/61144/mr-worried-about-the-future-of-french-speaking-
culture-in-brussels/ (Accessed: 20 July 2019).
• Thomas, D. et al. (2016) Power to gas road map for Flanders. Available at: http://www.power-to-
gas.be/sites/default/files/P2G Roadmap for Flanders - Final report.pdf. 25