Developmentof a TIMES model for the WalloonRegion(Belgium)

1. Development of a TIMES model for the
Walloon Region (Belgium)
• Presentation to ETSAP meeting - Goteborg - 18 June 2018
• Marco Orsini (ICEDD), Nathalie Arnould (DGO4), Ornella Dupont (DGO4)
Boulevard Frère Orban 4
5000 Namur
Tel : 081 25 04 80
www.icedd.be
Pour le Service public de Wallonie
DIRECTION GENERALE OPERATIONNELLE -
AMENAGEMENT DU TERRITOIRE, LOGEMENT,
PATRIMOINE ET ENERGIE
Département de l’énergie et du bâtiment
durable
En
collaboration
avec: Bureau Fédéral
du Plan

2. 2
• Background > Regional competences and the relevance of a tool such as
TIMES in the context of RW
• Building up the model > challenges and opportunities of starting
from (almost) scratch
• The structure of the model > the art of compromise with the reality
of data
• Assumptions > Rational discussion is useful only when there is a
significant base of shared assumptions (N. Chosky).
• (Scenarios & ) Results > finally…
• Next steps > once you start you cannot stop!
Outline

3. 3
Background
Figure:
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%C3%A
9gion_wallonne
Population: 3,6 M
Primary energy
consumption: +-
170 TWh

4. 4
•The institutional setting > RW competences related to energy
(and climate) > renewable energy production and energy efficiency
•Need of a tool, transparent and flexible
• To help political decisions (regional plan, measures choices, …)
• To report on scenarios (with existing measures/with additional
measures)
 No perfect model
 ETSAP opportunity => TIMES model
Background

5. 5
•Building up the model > challenges and opportunities of
starting from scratch
• Not really from scratch > the Belgian TIMES model > not really
fit to RW needs
• Huge amount of data on energy > not always organised,
consistent and coherent
Building up the model

6. 6
•The structure of the model > the art of compromise with the
reality of data
• One region > which implies exogenous assumptions on
imp/exp of electricity
• 2050 Horizon
• 24 times slices > optimisation « à la VITO »
The structure of the model

7. The structure of the model
•The structure of the model > the art of compromise with the
reality of data
• Reduced supply sector
• Residential sector: 3 houses types + appart. / 5 age classes
• Commercial sector: 5 subsectors
• Transport sector: coherency (not fully yet) with COPERT RW
• « Classic » electricity generation
7

8. Assumptions
• Assumptions (in all scenarios) > Rational discussion is useful only
when there is a significant base of shared assumptions (N. Chosky).
• Phasing out of nuclear > as it is in the current legilsation
(completed by 2025)
• No import/export of electricity
• No offshore wind energy
• Constraints on: renewable potentials, renovation rates
• Prices > mostly aligned with lastest EU and BE figures (e.g. fuels
prices projections as in the BfP studies)
8

9. 9
• (some surprising) Results:
• Nuclear replaced by gas and wind, no PV, biomass (if existing
subsides stay)
• No need of further storage (in REF and EU2030 scenarios)
• Heat pumps (for Commercial) and renovation of buildings
(windows & roofs) > competitvness of these solutions
Results

10. 10
• Consumption of electricity (PJ) - REF
Results

11. 11
• Production of electricity (PJ) - REF
Results
avec subsides (CV) sans subsides (CV)

12. 12
•Opportunities > existing experiences (i.e. belgian TIMES
model, ETSAP experts, …), but adaptation needed
•Biggest challenge at this step > data collection > also an
opportunity to centralise and challenge results of other studies !
•Economic optimisation > advantage and limit (some lack of
realism => added constraint)
•Tools > transparence and flexibility
Lessons learnt

13. 13
•Next steps
• Improvement of structure and data
• Exploration possibility to use TIMES for reporting obligation (EU,
UNFCCC)
• Consultation of (external) stakeholders
Next steps

14. Thank you for your attention!
Marco Orsini (mo@icedd.be), Nathalie Arnould
(nathalie.arnould@spw.wallonie.be), Ornella Dupont
(ornella.dupont@spw.wallonie.be)
Akwnoledgements
Maurizio Gargiulo (E4SMA) - Jan Duerinck (VITO) – Dominique Gusbin & Danielle
Devogelaar (Bureau Federal du Plan) – Laurent Noirhomme (Climact)
Boulevard Frère Orban 4
5000 Namur
Tel : 081 25 04 80
www.icedd.be
Pour le Service public de Wallonie
DIRECTION GENERALE OPERATIONNELLE -
AMENAGEMENT DU TERRITOIRE, LOGEMENT,
PATRIMOINE ET ENERGIE
Département de l’énergie et du bâtiment
durable
En
collaboration
avec: Bureau Fédéral
du Plan