The document discusses using the JRC-EU-TIMES energy system optimization model to analyze the impacts of technology costs and assumptions on the deployment of low carbon technologies in Europe. The model can explore scenarios assessing different technology sensitivities to provide insights for targeting research and innovation efforts. Examples analyzed include the impacts of solar PV costs and the role of geothermal with and without carbon capture and storage. The model results can indicate potentially cost-effective research and innovation investment levels to achieve breakthrough technology performance levels.

1. Joint Research Centre
the European Commission's
in-house science service
How costs affect
deployment of low
carbon technologies -
analysis with JRC-EU-
TIMES
Wouter Nijs
Institute for Energy and Transport -
Energy Technology Policy Outlook Unit

2. • Energy research and innovation
R&I are key for achieving a low-carbon transition and
a fundamental building block of the Energy Union.
• Objective of this research
Provide insights for better targeting of R&I efforts by
exploring the impact of techno-economic
assumptions of low carbon energy supply
technologies (in PPT: focus on RES-e and CCS)
Introduction and rationale

3. Model landscape JRC IET - Energy Technology
Policy Outlook Unit (ETPO)
Energy System
Optimisation
(JRC-EU-TIMES)
Asset Optimisation
Price Taker Models
(SPIRIT)
Energy Services
Demand
(GEM-E3)
Power System
Unit Commitment
(Dispa-SET)
Weather / Demand
Statistical Models
3
Land use & forestry
(LUISA, CBM,
GFTM)
Regional Holistic
Global Equilibrium
(RHOMOLO)
IET model
Other JRC
Hydrology
(LISFLOOD)
Global Energy
(TIMES-TIAM)
BIO-
MASS2
WATER-
FLEX3
ERIBE-
LAND1
1) Project IET/IES/IPTS
2) Project IET/IES/IPTS
3) Proposal IET/IES (tbd)
JRCTIMESTRADE

4. • Technology rich bottom up energy
system optimisation (partial
equilibrium) model based on the TIMES
model generator of the IEA for EU28,
CH, IS, NO + Western Balkans
• Designed for analysing the role of
energy technologies and their
innovation for meeting Europe's energy
and climate change related policy
objectives
• Model owned and operated by the
JRC
• Model horizon: 2010-2050 (2075)
Available at:
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/reposit
ory/handle/111111111/30469
JRC-EU-TIMES in a nutshell

5. Objective
• Minimise total energy system costs
Constraints
• Demand and supply balances by
country and sector
• Capacity limits
• Renewable and emission targets
• …
Energy service
demands
Resource
availabilities
and costs
Sectoral costs
and price
proxies (by
country, energy
carrier,
technology)
Supply and
demand
technologies
Emissions
Techno-
economic
assumptions
Modelling approach
Material and
energy flows
AlignedtolatestEU
EnergyReference
Scenarios
Policies
(GHG and
energy target,
subs.)
ETRI

6. JRC-EU-TIMES model extensions
Improved RES-e potentials
Other improvementsModel coupling
Recalibration and model
updates
Coupling with other JRC models
Updated biomass potential
Updated solar potential with
explicit representation of land use
Updated wind potential
Such as
• Monte Carlo runs
• Include retrofit options
• Include biogas blending
New base year 2010+
Explicit representation of
insulation options in buildings

7. Bioenergy in the JRC-EU-TIMES
Potentials
• Agriculture (CAPRI)
• Roundwood and forestry
residues (EFISCEN + now:
CBM GFTM)
• Waste (Eurostat statistics
linked to population and GDP)
Scenarios
• Differ in land use, agricultural
practices, and protected
areas.
Source: "The JRC-EU-TIMES model. Bioenergy
potentials for EU and neighbouring countries."
Model result
Biomass demand is high and almost
insensitive under a 80% CO2
reduction target and the assumption
of carbon neutrality.
2050 potentials (PJ)

8. Assumptions on energy and climate targets

9. • Investing 12 B€ per year in
PV R&D could be cost-
effective if this reduces PV
cost to 450-500 €/kW, cet.
paribus
• PV cost is vital for PV
deployment and for the
energy system cost in a cost
optimal low carbon energy
system
How do costs affect PV deployment in EU28 ?
SET Plan Conference 2015

10. Every 100€/kW PV cost reduction adds 30GW in
2030
and 85GW in 2050

11. A bigger exercise: 50 scenarios !

12. The case of Geothermal:
CAPEX evolution and share in power production

13. No CCS leads
to double
Geothermal
generation
Geothermal power production in 2050 (TWh)
Most countries
still well below
50% of the
economic
potential that is
based on 100
EUR/MWh LCOE

14. Further demonstration of the outputs
• Electricity production in TWh
• Installed capacity in GW
• CAPEX requirements in EUR billion
• Energy related CO2 emissions in Mt
for scenarios:
CAP, NOCCS, NOPEC + technology sensitivities

15. Conclusions (1)
• Technology interactions, sensitivities and possible future
investments are valuable outputs for targeting of R&I efforts
• Capital intensive technologies are more sensitive
• Technology interactions and competition are crucial, even in
a low carbon energy system
• Key technologies exist for cross technology sensitivity
within the power sector: CCS, Bio-CCS and geothermal.
• Without CCS, the indirect use of power (Power2Gas) from
variable RES becomes important
• Breakthrough levels have been defined for ocean and CSP

16. Conclusions (2)
• Using savings in the total energy system cost as a proxy for
a possible R&I budget is powerful although partial:
• Ceteris paribus (other techs don't move)
• No link between R&I and technology improvement.
• When results of JRC-EU-TIMES were deviating from isolated
cost analysis, the cause was often different commodity prices
• Uncovered but on the wish list:
• Extend analysis to demand technologies and storage
• Combinations to overcome single technology sensitivity.

17. Thank you for your attention!
• Wouter.Nijs@ec.europa.eu
• +31 22456 5481
1.Savvas.Politis@ec.europa.eu
2.+31 22456 5037
3.Pablo.Ruiz-Castello@ec.europa.eu
4.+31 22456 5150

18. Stay in touch
JRC Science Hub:
ec.europa.eu/jrc
Twitter:
@EU_ScienceHub
YouTube:
JRC Audiovisuals
Facebook:
EU Science Hub – Joint Research Centre
LinkedIn:
Joint Research Centre (JRC) - European
Commission's Science Service

19. • Assessing the impacts of technology improvements on the deployment of marine
energy in Europe with an energy system perspective
• Assessing the role of electricity storage in EU28 until 2050
• Decarbonised pathways for a low carbon EU28 power sector until 2050
• The effect of limited renewable resources on the electricity generation in a low-
carbon europe
• How far away is hydrogen? Its role in the medium and long-term decarbonisation
of the European energy system
• Improved representation of the European power grid in long term energy system
models: case study of JRC-EU-TIMES
• The JRC-EU-TIMES model - Assessing the long-term role of the SET Plan Energy
technologies
• The JRC-EU-TIMES model. Bioenergy potentials for EU and neighbouring
countries
• Supporting the deployment of selected low-carbon technologies in Europe:
Implications of techno-economic assumptions. An energy system perspective
with the JRC-EU-TIMES model
Recent publications