SATIMGE-2020 Bruno Merven, Faaiqa Hartley, Andrew Marquard, Fadiel Ahjum, Bryce McCall, Alison Hughes, Gregory Ireland, and Jesse Burton, Energy Systems Research Group, University of Cape Town

2. Overview of Presentation
 Intro
 Recent Improvements
SATIM
Linked Model
Other
 Peek under the hood
 Some References
2.

3. Intro: SATIMGE
3

4. SATIMGE: Linked energy-economic
model
SATIM: Full
Sector TIMES
Model
SAGE:
Dynamic
Recursive
CGE Model
(GAMS)
Technology Mix
Emissions
Electricity Price
Electricity Production function
Expenditure on expansion plan
Production function of all activities (energy)
Consumption function of households (energy)
GDP
Welfare
Employment
GDP
Household income
SATIM SAGE
Energy/Climate Policy
IPPU
Waste
AFOLU

5. Allows us to do things like the trade off between
development and mitigation objectives
5.
CAT 1.5deg CAT 2deg

6. Recent Improvements in SATIM
6

7. Recent Improvements in TIMES model (SATIM):
2017 Energy Balance Calibration

8. (1): BRT: Bus Rapid Transport; (2): Metro: Metropolitan i.e. intra‐city; (3): Used for Coastal & Inland Navigation; * Internal Combustion Engine; #: Battery Electric for Road Vehicles; HCV1: Medium commercial vehicle of 3 000–
7 500kg GVM; HCV 2: Heavy commercial vehicle of 7 501–12 000 kg GVM; HCV 6: Heavy commercial vehicle of 24 001–32 000 kg GVM. SUV: Sport Utility Vehicle (usually 4X4 and >1ton in mass)
Recent Improvements in TIMES model (SATIM):
Transport

9. BF-BOF (New)
DRI-EAF coal (New)
Scrap-EAF (New)
BF-BOF w. CCS (New)
BF-BOF
DRI-EAF coal
Scrap-EAF
MIDREX-CONARC
KILN-EAF
DRI-EAF gas (New)
Existing technologies
New technologies
Coal
Coking
coal
Gas
Oil
products
Biomass
Waste
fuels
Electricity
(grid)
Coke oven
Onsite gen. or
CHP
Steel for domestic
Energy efficiency
improvements
Onsite gen. or
CHP (new)
Coke oven (new)
DRIElectrolyser
EAF
Iron storageH2 storage Steel for export
Electricity
(Solar PV)
Recent Improvements in TIMES model (SATIM):
I&S with H-DRI

10. Recent Improvement in Linked Model
10

11. Activity (sector: e.g. Power sector)
Value Added
Intermediates
Labour
Capital
Coal
Gas
Biomass
Other
commodities
and services
Electricity
Linked model Improvements:
Power Sector
SAGE
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TWh
Production Mix
Biomass Coal Gas Hydro Imports
Nuclear Oil PumpStorage CSP Battery_Cent
Battery_Dist PV_Cent PV_Dist Wind
SATIM
…
Eskom, REI4P
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
PV Wind Coal Nuclear PV Wind Coal Nuclear
Jobs/TWh Jobs/GW

12. Linked model Improvements:
Links on the demand side
Activity (sector: e.g. Iron and Steel)
Value Added
Intermediates
Labour
Capital
Coal
Gas
Electricity
Other
commodities
and services
Steel
BF-BOF (New)
DRI-EAF coal (New)
Scrap-EAF (New)
BF-BOF w. CCS (New)
BF-BOF
DRI-EAF coal
Scrap-EAF
MIDREX-CONARC
KILN-EAF
DRI-EAF gas (New)
Existing technologies
New technologies
Coal
Coking coal
Gas
Oil products
Biomass
Waste fuels
Electricity
(grid)
Coke oven
Onsite gen. or CHP
Steel
Energy efficiency
improvements
Onsite gen. or CHP
(new)
Coke oven (new)
Demand for Steel
Coefficients for energy inputs
In production function
SAGE
SATIM

13. Linking CGE model to energy model
necessary to capture technical change
SATIM SAGE

14. Linked model Improvements:
Consumption behaviour in private transport
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Shareofhouseholdexpenditure
Decile
Transport fuel Passenger transport Vehicles
Rubber products Food Other energy
Other manufacturing Other services Other
No Rebound
Full Rebound

15. Other Recent Improvement in SATIMGE
15

16. Other Recent Improvements
Inclusion of IPPU + Link to Waste and AFOLU models
16.
SATIM: Full
Sector
Optimization
Energy Model
SAGE:
Dynamic
Recursive
CGE Model
Technology Mix
Emissions
Electricity Price
Electricity Production function
Expenditure on expansion plan
Production function of all activities (energy)
Consumption function of households (energy)
GDP
Welfare
Employment
GDP
Household income
Energy/Climate Policy
IPPU
Waste
AFOLU

17. Other Recent Improvements:
Update of GDP and demand taking into
account COVID
17.
200
250
300
350
400
450
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
TWhSentOut
IRP2010
IRP2013
IRP2016
IRP2018
IRP2019
MTSO 2019
MTSAO 2020 high
SATIMGE-2020
MTSAO 2020 low
Actual

18. Other Recent Improvements:
Tableau Dashboard for viewing results:
Comparison Across Multiple Datasets
18.

19. Other Recent Improvements:
Tableau Dashboard for viewing results:
Multiple Zoom Levels
19.

20. Other Recent Improvements:
Tableau Dashboard for viewing results:
Dashboards with multiple indicators
20.

21. Other Recent Improvements:
Git-based version control for model
21.

22. Other Recent work in progress:
Prelim Link to IRENA Flextool for high-
temporal checks on power sector
22.
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
4000
4008
4016
4024
4032
4040
4048
4056
4064
4072
4080
4088
4096
4104
4112
4120
4128
4136
4144
4152
4160
4168
4176
4184
4192
4200
4208
4216
4224
4232
4240
4248
4256
4264
4272
4280
4288
4296
4304
4312
4320
4328
4336
4344
4352
4360
4368
4376
4384
4392
4400
4408
4416
4424
4432
4440
4448
4456
4464
4472
4480
4488
4496
MW
Time
Base
Loss of load Hydro Coal Gas
Wind PV Curtailed Excess load
Battery PumpHydro Demand+exp.-imp.

23. Peek under the hood
23

24. Under the hood: SATIMGE-2020 components
24.
SATIMGE-
Control
(GAMS)
Useful Energy
Demand Model
Xcel Workbook
Scenarios Xcel
Workbook
SAGE CGE
model (GAMS)
Waste Model
Xcel Workbook
AFOLU Model
Xcel Workbook
SATIM
TIMES Model
(GAMS)
Sets and Maps
Xcel Workbook
Tableau
Workbook
Results Dump
csv file
GHG Inventory
Xcel Workbook
Energy Balance
Xcel Workbook
Sector Specific
Xcel Workbooks
Flextool
Dispatch Model

25. Under the hood: Hierarchical Sets
25.

26. SATIMGE-2021?
 Pathways to Net-Zero for South Africa by 2050-2060
 Impacts of Climate Actions on households (TSITICA-ARUA)
 Further Deep dives under DDP-BIICS
26.

27. Presenter contact: Bruno Merven
Energy Systems Research Group: University of Cape Town, South Africa
email – brunomerven@gmail.com
Thank you!
We are open for collaboration and contributions for future work…

28. 28.

29. References: Past SATIM and SATIMGE projects
29.
Year Project Link
2003 IEP-1
2006 EPSD-SA - IAEA
http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2006/Papers-2005/05Winkler-Alfstad-Howells-
Energy_Policies_Phase2.pdf
2007 LTMS http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2007/07Scenario_team-LTMS_Scenarios.pdf
2008 Costing 2020 RE Target http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2008/08-Marquardetal-costing_a_2020_target.pdf
2010 Review of RE white paper report not published
2011 Low Emission Pathways report not published
2012 SANEDI-Transport https://open.uct.ac.za/handle/11427/16905
2013 NPC-Power Plan http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2013/13ERC-Towards_new_power_plan.pdf
2014 UNU-WIDER SATIMGE beta 1 https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/wp2014-135.pdf
2015 UNEP Uncertainty in Baselines http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2016/16-Merven-etal-Longterm_GHG_forecasts.pdf
SDSN DDPP
http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2015/15-Altieri-etal-
Pathways_to_deep_carbonisation.pdf
SA Nuclear: Risk Analysis
http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2015/15-ERC-
Nuclear_build_plan_Technical_report.pdf
2016 WB Thirsty Energy
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/26255/113464-WP-P144930-PUBLIC-W16014-
eBook.pdf?sequence=5&isAllowed=y
UNU-WIDER SATIMGE beta 2 https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/development-linked-modelling-framework-analysing-socioeconomic-impacts-energy-and
2017 Gas Study http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2017/17-Merven-etal-Uptake_natural_gas_SA.pdf
SANEDI-Transport 2 https://journals.assaf.org.za/index.php/jesa/article/view/4176
PAMS Final report not published - need to put draft released to stakeholders on our website
2018 SANEDI Flexible Demand
https://www.ee.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Gregory-Ireland-University-of-Cape-Town-presentation.pdf (need to put report
on our website)
CER Coal-IPPs https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/ERC-Coal-IPP-Study-Report-Finalv2-290518.pdf
SA-TIED Alt-IRP http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2019/Alt%20IRP%20final%2007022019_2.pdf
2019 CoBenefits Study https://www.cobenefits.info/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/COBENEFITS-Study-South-Africa-Employment.pdf
SA-TIED https://sa-tied.wider.unu.edu/climate
2020 DEFF-SSN 2030 NDC Update Report Due early 2021
2021 DEFF-SSN Net-Zero 2021
GCRF STITICA
IKI DDP-BIICS 2021

30. Policy briefs
• Least-cost power pathway for South Africa
• A just transition to cleaner energy in South Africa
Key findings
• There no longer exists a trade-off between economic development and
power sector decarbonization in South Africa.
• Shifting away from coal to RE does not negatively affect economic
development  Protecting the coal-mining sector does not save jobs.
• Investment in renewable power is the least-cost option for South Africa.
• Artificially constraining the inclusion of solar PV and wind in the long term
increases the electricity price and negatively affects economic development.
• Removing constraints on renewable energy deployment leads to higher real
GDP and increased net employment
• A just transition plan is needed to protect workers and dependent
communities
https://sa-tied.wider.unu.edu/climate
Working papers
Work done under SA-TIED project