Scenario analysis of data centres in the Irish energy system Mr. Leonardo Collina, Università di Bologna / University College Cork

1. Data centres in Ireland
SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR ETSAP WORKSHOP
Leonardo Collina, MSc student
Università di Bologna / University College Cork

2. Data centres overview
Physical facilities that companies use to host their critical applications and data.
Demand increased rapidly in recent years and will further increase stimulated by new data-intensive
technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning.
Why is it relevant for
the energy system?
Electricity consumption for:
• IT equipment (servers, storage,
transmission)
• Cooling system
• Others
Hyperscale DCs can have a demand
capacity >100 MW
But… waste heat recovery is possible!
Why is it relevant for Ireland?
Factors that make it perfect for hosting DCs:
• Weather conditions
• Good fibre connections with US
• Attractive corporation tax
Factors that make DCs hard to handle:
• Big growth expected in the next decade
• Concentration in Dublin area
• Isolated energy system (lack of grid
connections with other countries)
• Decarbonization targets
ETSAP workshop, 30.11.’21

3. Ireland decarbonization pathways
A33E61:
• 33% reductions from agriculture,
• 61% reductions from energy & industry
by 2030
ETSAP workshop, 30.11.’21
0
5000
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2019
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2028
2029
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kton
CO2
“Climate Action & Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021” targets to reduce greenhouse-gases [GHGs] by:
• 51% by 2030,
• net-zero by 2050.
https://tim-carbon-budgets-2021.netlify.app/scenarios
https://zenodo.org/record/5517363#.YZ-uVtDP02w
More mitigation scenarios developed by
the MaREI Energy Policy and Modelling Group
available:

4. DCs in TIM
ETSAP workshop, 30.11.’21
Season Weekly DayNite
Wi NW A (0-7)
Sp WD B (7-9)
Su C (9-17)
Au D (17-19)
E (19-0)
40 time-slices

5. DCs in TIM
Cooling system electricity and waste heat are expressed as share of the total consumption of
the process.
Shares are taken from a thermodynamic model on hourly level, then aggregated on time-slices
level in TIM.
ETSAP workshop, 30.11.’21

6. Demand projections
1_Flat: Flat demand
Capacity: 1100 MW (already connected)
Eirgrid, All-Island-Generation-Capacity-Statement-2020-
2029
Load factor: 40%
Eirgrid, All-Island-Generation-Capacity-Statement-2020-
2029
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
PJ
ETSAP workshop, 30.11.’21

7. Demand projections
2_LF: load factor increase
Capacity: 1100 MVA
(already connected)
Load factor: grows linearly
from 40% up to 70% in 2030
Eirgrid expects the load factor to rise as customers build
out to their full potential.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
PJ
ETSAP workshop, 30.11.’21

8. Demand projections
3_cap: All current applications approved
Capacity:
o 1800 MVA in 2022
(connection agreements already in place)
o +2000 MVA up to 2030
(additional requests already received)
CRU21060-CRU-consultation-on-Data-Centre-measures
Load factor: 40%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
PJ
ETSAP workshop, 30.11.’21

9. Demand projections
4_LFcap: All current applications approved and load factor increase
Capacity:
o 1800 MVA in 2022
(connection agreements already in place)
o +2000 MVA up to 2030
(additional requests already received)
CRU21060-CRU-consultation-on-Data-Centre-measures
Load factor: grows linearly from 40% up to
70% in 2030
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
PJ
ETSAP workshop, 30.11.’21

10. DCs elc vs total elc demand
0
50
100
150
200
250
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
PJ
DCs electricity vs total electricity
E61-1_Flat - E61-2_LF - E61-3_Cap - E61-4_LFCap -
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
DCs electricity as share of total electricity
E61-1_Flat E61-2_LF E61-3_Cap E61-4_LFCap
Scenarios recap
Capacity [MVA] Load factor [%] Demand [PJ]
2021 2022 2030 2021 2030 2021 2030
E61-1_Flat 1100 1100 1100 40 40 14.19 14.19
E61-2_LF 1100 1100 1100 40 70 14.19 24.83
E61-3_Cap 1100 1800 3800 40 40 14.19 47.93
E61-4_LFCap 1100 1800 3800 40 70 14.19 83.89

11. New capacity installed
• Investments in gas power plants in 2024 due to coal phase out in 2025
• Each year a considerable level of new wind off-shore capacity
• Some investment in CCS technologies in 2030
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
E61-1_Flat
E61-2_LF
E61-3_Cap
E61-4_LFCap
E61-1_Flat
E61-2_LF
E61-3_Cap
E61-4_LFCap
E61-1_Flat
E61-2_LF
E61-3_Cap
E61-4_LFCap
E61-1_Flat
E61-2_LF
E61-3_Cap
E61-4_LFCap
E61-1_Flat
E61-2_LF
E61-3_Cap
E61-4_LFCap
E61-1_Flat
E61-2_LF
E61-3_Cap
E61-4_LFCap
E61-1_Flat
E61-2_LF
E61-3_Cap
E61-4_LFCap
E61-1_Flat
E61-2_LF
E61-3_Cap
E61-4_LFCap
E61-1_Flat
E61-2_LF
E61-3_Cap
E61-4_LFCap
E61-1_Flat
E61-2_LF
E61-3_Cap
E61-4_LFCap
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
GW
PWR-WIN-ON
PWR-WIN-OF
PWR-SOL
PWR-HYD
PWR-GAS-CCS
PWR-GAS
PWR-BIO-CCS

12. New capacity installed (Up to 2030)
ETSAP workshop, 30.11.’21
• In the next 8 years the system will need from 16 to 17.8 GW of new capacity to meet decarbonization targets
• This 1.8 GW difference is covered mostly from wind off-shore
• But… in the case of very high demand the further difference is covered by new gas power plants
1.85 1.97 2.06 2.37
3.02 3.02 3.02 3.05
6.33
7.49 7.56 7.56
4.01
4.01 4.01 4.01
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
E61-1_Flat E61-2_LF E61-3_Cap E61-4_LFCap
GW
Total new capacity up to 2030
PWR-WIN-ON
PWR-WIN-OF
PWR-SOL
PWR-HYD
PWR-GAS-CCS
PWR-GAS
PWR-BIO-CCS
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
E61-1_Flat E61-2_LF E61-3_Cap E61-4_LFCap
GW
Demand projections comparison
PWR-WIN-ON
PWR-WIN-OF
PWR-SOL
PWR-HYD
PWR-GAS-CCS
PWR-GAS
PWR-BIO-CCS

13. Waste heat recovery
ETSAP workshop, 30.11.’21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
PJ
Heat recovery potential
E61-1_Flat E61-2_LF E61-3_Cap E61-4_LFCap
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
PJ
Heat to DH Network
E61-4_LFCap E61-3_Cap E61-2_LF E61-1_Flat
% % % %
From 2027, in 3° and 4° demand senarios, new investments in DH networks are no longer cost optimal
While the potential grows the share of heat actually used decrease

14. What if no heat recovery?
0
5
10
15
20
25
E61-1_Flat E61-2_LF E61-3_Cap E61-4_LFCap
PJ
Heat usage by sector (2022-2030)
FT-RSDHET FT-SRVHET
1.79
10.72
16.25
18.09
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
E61-1_Flat-NoHeatRec E61-2_LF-NoHeatRec E61-3_Cap-NoHeatRec E61-4_LFCap-NoHeatRec
PJ
Service fuel demand for SC, SH, WH (2022-2030):
Difference between heat recovery/no heat recovery
SRVAHT SRVAHT2 SRVBGS SRVBIO SRVELC SRVGAS SRVHET SRVOIL SRVSOL
SRV sector
• The heat recovered from DCs is used for space and water
heating in service and residential sectors.
• Heat is replaced mostly by gas and to a small extent by oil.
In the 4th case there’s also a big contribution of biomass.
• The amount of gas avoided by recovering the waste heat is
lower than the amount of additional gas required in the power
sector due to DCs growth (18.09 PJ vs 53.90 PJ in the 4th case)

15. Emissions by sector
ETSAP workshop, 30.11.’21
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10000
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35000
40000
45000
E61-1_Flat E61-2_LF E61-3_Cap E61-4_LFCap E61-1_Flat E61-2_LF E61-3_Cap E61-4_LFCap
2019 2029 2030
CO2
ton
ENV-CO2_AGR ENV-CO2_IND ENV-CO2_PWR ENV-CO2_RSD ENV-CO2_SRV ENV-CO2_TRA
• What happens in 2029 to the industrial
sector?
• What happens in 2030 to the residential
sector?
Emissions from the power sector increase
as the demand from DCs grows
more pressure on the other sectors to
speed up the transition
New investments in
greener technologies?

16. CO2 Price
ETSAP workshop, 30.11.’21
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kEur/ton
CO2 price
E61-1_Flat E61-2_LF E61-3_Cap E61-4_LFCap
CO2_price = 2 kEur/ton
No cheaper options
to mitigate emissions than
Direct Air Capture
«backstop» technology used to
make the scenario feasible
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2028 2029 2028 2029 2028 2029 2030 2027 2028 2029 2030
E61-1_Flat E61-2_LF E61-3_Cap E61-4_LFCap
CO2
tons
Backstop emissions
AGRCO2N INDCO2N INDCO2P RSDCO2

17. Discussions
ETSAP workshop, 30.11.’21
Assumptions / input data:
• Cooling system
• Waste heat
• Load factor increase
Analysis:
• Impact to other sectors
• Comparison with less challenging scenarios
Lack of reliable data:
Literature review and
sensititvity analysis
New ideas are welcome

18. THANK YOU FOR LISTENING
leonardo.collina4@studio.unibo.it