This document provides an overview of the Swiss energy system and scenarios analyzed using the Swiss TIMES Energy Model (STEM). STEM is a whole energy system optimization model of Switzerland that examines the Swiss energy system from primary energy supply to end use across sectors. The document describes scenarios that focus on either achieving a 40% or 60% reduction in transport sector CO2 emissions by 2050 or achieving a system-wide 60-67% CO2 reduction. The results show that a transport sector target alone shifts emissions to other sectors while a system-wide target leads to greater electrification and use of renewable electricity to reduce overall CO2 emissions.

1. WIR SCHAFFEN WISSEN – HEUTE FÜR MORGEN
Should the focus be on broader policy goals or
on specific technology targets? – A case study
scoping on the Swiss transportation sector
Ramachandran Kannan :: EEG, LEA :: Paul Scherrer Institut
ETSAP semi-annual workshop, Madrid, Spain
17-18 November 2016

2. •Overview of the Swiss energy system
•Swiss TIMES energy system model (STEM)
•Scenarios and results
•Conclusions and outlook
Page 2
Outline

3. Overview of the Swiss energy system
Page 3
Energy Economy (2015)
• Energy expenditure: CHF 26.36 Billion (4.1% of GDP)
• Energy import: CHF 6.2 Billion (2.4% of import expenditures)
• Energy import dependency: 75.4%

4. Overview of the Swiss energy system
Page 4
Electricity generation mix (2015)

5. Overview of the Swiss energy system
Page 5
The Swiss energy strategy 2050
CO2 emissions reductions in 2050 from 2010 level
• Business as usual (WWB): 19 - 29%
• Policy Measures (POM): 37-50%
• New Energy Policy (NEP): 60-67%
Underlying demand drivers are
same for all the scenarios!!
Without centralised natural gas power plantsWith centralised natural gas power plants

6. Overview of the Swiss energy system
Page 6
The Swiss energy strategy 2050
• 25 – 60% transport sector energy demand reduction by 2050 from 2010 level
• 30-40% electric cars by 2050
e-cars
Fuel demand

7. What are ultimate objectives of our scenarios?
Page 7
• To assess broader policy objectives
• Decarbonisation of the entire energy system (60-80%)
• Transport (or sectoral) energy, CO2 emission reduction targets in
the energy strategy?
• To assess specific technology objectives
• To meet e-mobility targets in the energy strategy
• Certain fleet level CO2 targets on g-CO2/km basis

8. • A whole energy system model of Switzerland in an (cost) optimization framework
− Primary energy supply to end use (all end-use sectors with sub-sector details, detail electricity and fuel
supply modules, CO2 emission tracking, taxes, etc.)
Page 8
Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM)
Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM)
Fuel supply
module
Fuel
distribution
module
Demand modulesElectricity
supply
module
Resource module
Electricity import
Uranium
Natural gas
Hydrogen
Electricity export
Electricity
Gasoline
Diesel
Renewable
• Solar
• Wind
• Biomass
• Waste
Electricity
storage
Hydro resource
• Run-of rivers
• Reservoirs
CO2
Demand
technologies
Residential
- Boiler
- Heat pump
- Air conditioner
- Appliances
Services
Industires
Hydro plants
Nuclear plants
Natural gas
GTCC
Solar PV
Wind
Geothermal
Other
Taxes &
Subsidies
Fuel cell
Energy
service
demands
Person
transportat
ion
Lighting
Motors
Space
heating
Hot water
Oil
Transport
Car fleet
ICE
Hybrid vehicles
PHEV
BEV
Fuel cell
Bus
Rail
Macroeconomicdrivers(e.g.,population,GDP,floorarea,vkm)
Internationalenergyprices(oil,naturalgas,electricity,...)
Technologycharacterization(Efficiency,lifetime,costs,…)
Resourcepotential(wind,solar,biomass,….)
Biofuels
Biogas
vkm-Vehicle kilometre
tkm-tonne kilometre
LGV-Light goods vehicles
HGV-Heavy good vehicles
SMR-steam methane reformer
GTCC-gas turbine combined cycle plant
Oil refinery
Process
heat
FreightsTrucks
HGV
Rail
Natural gas
Heating oil

9. • A whole energy system model of
Switzerland.
• Long time horizon (2010–2100) & an
hourly time resolution for typical days.
• Transparent and well documented
model input data and assumptions.
• Peer reviewed publications.
Page 9
Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM)

10. Transportation module
• 10 modes of demand (e.g. car, buses,
trucks)
• 4 market segments for cars (<60kW, 60-
100kW, 100-140kW, >140kW) by fuel and
drivetrain
• Simplified fuel distribution network
• Transportation fuel taxes
• Endogenous charging of electric cars
Page 10
Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM)
Other modules Vehicle
technology
Fuel
distribution
Demands
Car fleet
Diesel ICE
Gasoline ICE
Gas ICE
Hybrid Diesel
Hybrid Gasoline
Hybrid Gas
Hydrogen ICE
Plug-in hybrid
Battery Electric
Vehicle
Hydrogen
Electricity
Gasoline
Natural Gas
Diesel
Hydrogen Fuelcell
Bus
LGV
HGV
Rail
Aviation
Electricity
supply
module
Personal
transport
Freight
transport
Refinery
Resource
module
Fuel
conversion
(e.g. Hydrogen,
biofules)
Biofuel
Taxes
Other end use
sectors
CO2
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22
Normalisedweeklydemand
Hours
Car drive pattern
Weekday
Weekend

11. • Base
− Travel demands from Swiss Energy Strategy 2050
− Nuclear phase-out and option for new gas power plants
− Annual self-sufficiency in electricity supply
Page 11
Scenario definition
• Transport CO2 emission mitigation
− 40% CO2 emission reduction from 2010
level in transport sector as in the POM
scenario (T-40)
− T-60 (as in NEP scenario)
• Energy system-wide CO2 mitigation
− Whole energy system-wide CO2
emission reduction of 60% by 2050
from 2010 level as in the NEP scenario
variant C (S-60)
− NEP scenario variant RES – i.e. 67%
total reduction (or 80% in domestic CO2
emission) or (S-67)

12. •ICE  hybrid (small size)
•ICE  diesel (long range) Page 12
Car fleet technology and tailpipe CO2

13. • Fuel 40% reduction in fuel from 2010 level
• CO2  53% CO2 emission reduction from 2010 level
Page 13
Car fleet fuel demand

14. Transport sectoral cap  plug-in hybrid & biodiesel
System-wide cap  Battery electric and gas hybrid
Car fleet: Technology
2050
Gasoline
hybrid cars
Gasoline
plug-in
hybrid
cars
Electric
cars
Page 14

15. Electricity supply
Page 15
2050
Hydro
GAS
CHP
PV
Transport sectoral cap  Electricity demand increase
System-wide cap  Electricity demand declines
CHPNuclear

16. Page 16
Electricity supply and demand in 2050
WinterweekdaysSummerweekdays
Marginal cost electricity
Gasoline hybrid car
Pumping
Exports
Demand
BEV
charging
Battery electric
vehicles
Base scenario

17. 2050
• Transport sector CO2 emission targets shift the emissions
to electricity and industry
Page 17
CO2 emissions
Electricity
Transport
Industry

18. • Net emissions are higher than tailpipe emission
• Still e-mobility contributes to net reduction
Page 18
Car fleet energy and CO2 emission
2050

19. • There is no linear relation between electricity demands and load profile
Page 19
Electricity demands and load curves in 2050
Winter Summer

20. Page 20
Electricity demands and load curves in 2050

21. • E-mobility can decarbonise car fleet and contributes to net
reduction in CO2 emissions.
• Transport specific CO2 target does not result in net system-
wide reduction in CO2 emissions, instead it leads to carbon
leakage to other sectors.
• Given the phase-out of nuclear generation, clear policy for
electricity sector is required to ensure that capacity is built to
achieve the low-carbon target, including signals for continued
expansion of generation from renewable energy.
• It is essential to ensure consistency between policies on
electricity and end-use sectors (e.g. promotion of e-mobility
and expansion of new centralised power plants).
Page 21
Conclusions

22. • How to enhance mobility representation in STEM
− Range and size  are they independent?
− Short vs. long range cars
− Big vs. small cars
− Further disaggregation  How to avoid computational
time?
• How to address non-cost driver / barriers
−Battery charging time and infrastructure
• Modal shift
− Refining demands from vehicle (vkm) to personal (pkm)
− Is there a way to control domination of specific modes
(other than user constraints)?
• Storage
− Is vehicle to grid reality?
Page 22
Outlook

23. Page 23
Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen
Thank you!