Winners and losers of end-use flexibility in the Norwegian energy system

1. Winners and loosers of end-use
flexibility in the Norwegian
energy system
Eva Rosenberg, Kristina Haaskjold & Pernille Seljom
Renewable Energy Systems
Institute for Energy Technology (IFE)
Colombia
University
ETSAP
Workshop
Winter 2022
01.12.2022

2. Research questions of analysis
• How will end-use flexibility effect the energy system?
• Who are the winners and losers of flexible demand?
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Bilde: Jason Blackeye, Unsplash Bilde: Matthey Henry, Unsplah
Bilder av Lisa Kvalbein, IFE

3. IFE-TIMES-Norway
• Long-term optimization model of the Norwegian energy
system (2018-2060)
• Covers entire energy system, including end-use; buildings,
industry & transport
• Sector coupling
• Competition and interplay of energy carriers & technologies
• Assumptions of this study
• Carbon neutrality in 2050
• Harmonised with EMPIRE: European power market model
• End-use flexibility
• Flexible EV charging
• Flexible heating of hot water
• Stationary batteries
https://ife.brage.unit.no/ife-
xmlui/bitstream/handle/11250/29770
95/IFE-E-2021-005.pdf?sequence=1

4. Norwegian energy system
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• Electricity generation mainly based on hydropower
• 90% 2021
• Large water reservoirs: NO & SE: 50% of European
capacity
• Cold climate → High demand for space heating
• Historically electricity has been inexpensive
• Energy-intensive industry
• Electricity based heating system
• 2022: 78% of new car sales are EVs
Photo by Martin Adams on Unsplash
Photo by Jason Balckeye on Unsplash

5. Future storylines
Energy nation
• No new national grid or land-based wind
• Low demand
• Favour decentral solutions
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• Large potential for land-based wind
• High demand
• Favour central solutions
Nature nation

6. End-use flexibility lowers energy transition cost
• No winner takes it all
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3. Flexible hot water tanks
Picture from Enova
2. Flexible EV charging
• Where
• When
Picture: Michael Fouset, Unsplash
1. Stationary batteries
Picture: Brett Jordan, Unsplash
• Savings is 8 billion EURO in Energy (1.4%) and 5 billion EUR in Nature (1.0%)

7. End-use flexibility has limited impact on electricity generation
Direct offshore wind exports to Europa
• Nature nation: 35 TWh
• Energy nation: 31 TWh
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-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2020 2030 2050 2030 2050 .
Energy Nation Nature Nation
TWh/year
Electricity generation PV
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Hydro

8. End-use flexibility accelerate investments in building
applied PV
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PV is profitable earlier
Energy nation:
• 2030: 37 % more in commercial
• 2030: 31 % more in residential
Nature nation
• 2030: 19 % more in commercial
• 2030: 32 % more in residential

9. End-use flexibility has limited impact on spot prices
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-
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
1 6 12 18 24 6 12 18 24 6 12 18 24 6 12 18 24
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Electricity
price
2050
in
NO1,
NOK/MWh
Energy Nation Flex
Energy Nation no Flex
Nature Nation Flex
Nature Nation no Flex
Price reduction 2050 in NO1
• 0.5% in Energy Nation
• 0.4% in Nature Nation

10. End-use flexibility lowers peak electricity demand
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Energy nation
• 11 % lower peak with flexibility
4
5
6
7
8
9
1 6 11 16 21
Peak
demand,
GWh/
h
Winter NO1 2050
Energy nation Flex Energy nation No flex
Nature nation
• 9 % lower peak with flexibility
4
5
6
7
8
9
1 6 11 16 21
Peak
demand,
GWh/
h
Winter NO1 2050
Nature nation Flex Nature nation No flex

11. Flexible hot water tanks and batteries are cost-efficient
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• 2.8 GWh batteries in Energy 2050 = 44 800 Nissan Leaf batteries @ 62 kWh
• 30 % of hot water heating is flexible
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
Energy Nature Energy Nature Energy Nature Energy Nature
Commercial Residential Commercial Residential
BATTERY HOT WATER TANK
Capacity
(GWh)

12. Flexibility enables EV charging when the sun is
shining & prices are low
• Without flexibility EVs charge:
• 10 % Fast
• 15 % Commercial (30% 2050)
• 75 % Residential (60% 2050)
• Assume with flexibility EVs charge up to:
• 10 % Fast
• 50 % Commercial
• 90 % Residential buildings
• Optimal charging strategy: Max @ Commercial
• 50 % commercial
• 10 % fast
• 40 % residential
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Work/ Commercial
Home/ Residential

13. The electricity price and PV production are main drivers
for When and Where EVs charge
• We assume a span of flexibility of 50 % on when EVs are charged.
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Residential buildings – Energy nation 2050
Residential buildings
Commercial buildings – Energy nation 2050

14. End-use flexibility lowers building electricity costs
• Total savings of end-users
• 8.3 billion EUR/year in 2050
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Energy nation Nature nation
• Total savings of end-users
• 5.1 billion EUR/year in 2050

15. End-use flexibility lowers income of power producers
• Loss 2030: 0.5 billion EUR/year
• Loss 2050: 1.0 billion EUR/year
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Nature nation
Energy nation
• Loss 2030: 0.1 billion EUR/year
• Loss 2050: 0.4 billion EUR/year
(Remember: savings in building sector range from 8.3 - 5.1 billion EUR in 2050)

16. End-use flexibility increases profit of international
eletctricity trade
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• 2050: 11% Increase in income (0.5 bEUR)
Nature nation
Energy nation
• 2050: 4% Increase in income (0.2 bEUR)
(Remember: savings in building sector range from 8.3 - 5.1 billion EUR in 2050)

17. Winners and losers of end-use flexibility
Winners
• Low-carbon transition
• Building sector
• TSO/ Electricity trade
• Building applied PV
Losers
• Power producers
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18. Further work
• Stochastic modelling
• Reserve markets
• Paper
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19. 21

20. Graphs from Python script - EN
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21. EV charging
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Commercial buildings
Residential buildings

22. 24
Loss in income
Savings end-user %Savings end-user

23. Trade
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24. Graphs from Python script - NN
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25. EV charging
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Commercial buildings
Residential buildings

26. 28
Loss in income
Savings end-user %Savings end-user

27. Trade
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28. End-use flexibility lowers income of power producers
• Loss 2030: 0.23 billion NOK/year, Loss 2050: 1.3 billion NOK/year
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29. End-use flexibility lowers electricity costs of buildings
• Total savings of end-users is 5.6 billion NOK/year in 2050 = 7% lower electricity bill
• (Revenue loss of supply side is 1.3 billion NOK/year in 2050)
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