This document summarizes an ex-ante assessment of the potential impact of genetically modified bananas resistant to Xanthomonas wilt in the Great Lakes region of Africa. It finds that farmers are aware of and willing to adopt GM bananas to resist the disease. The assessment estimates that initial adoption rates of the GM bananas would range from 21-70% across countries. It projects large economic benefits for both farmers and consumers from adoption, with consumers benefitting twice as much due to expected price reductions. The largest benefits are estimated for countries most affected by Xanthomonas wilt such as Uganda. Participatory breeding programs are seen as having high potential to increase adoption rates.

1. www.iita.orgA member of CGIAR consortium
Ex-ante assessment of the potential impact of
genetically modified banana resistant to
Xanthomonas wilt in the Great Lakes region of Africa
Ainembabazi John Herbert, Tripathi Leena, Rusike Joseph,
Tahirou Abdoulaye, Manyong Victor
24th November 2015
(R4D Week 2015)

2. Ex-ante assessment of the potential impact of
genetically modified banana resistant to
Xanthomonas wilt in the Great Lakes region of
Africa
PLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0138998
2015
Ainembabazi John Herbert, Tripathi Leena, Rusike
Joseph, Tahirou Abdoulaye, Manyong Victor

3. Motivation
• 170 million ha planted to GM crops in specific countries
(Qaim and Kouser, 2013)
• In countries yet to embrace biotechnology:
– Is it viable to continue investing in dev’t of GM banana?
– What would be the returns to investments?
– What are the farmers’ perceptions on BXW and
willingness to adopt GM banana?

4. • Great Lakes Region of Africa (GLA) is a big banana busket
– Contributes 60% of total banana area in Africa
– Produces 63% of Africa’s and 21% of world’s banana supply
– Consumes 147 kcal daily per person, highest in the world
Introduction

5. • BXW is a big threat in GLA
– BXW affects quality of fruits
– Banana losses up to100%

6. Two control methods:
1. Cultural methods: debuding, destroying plant, sterilize tools
– No control, losses are at US$ 5.6 billion in 10-15 years
– With control, losses are at US$ 3.1 billion in 10-15 years
2. Use of natural host plant resistant to BXW; Non-existent
Solution to BXW in GLA
• IITA in collaboration with NARO & AATF
– Successfully developed GM banana resistant to BXW
– Multiplication, distribution & commercialization exp. in 2020
Control methods

7. Methodology
• Rapid appraisals in 2013:
– Burundi, Eastern DRC, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda
• Selection of participants in each country based on:
– Major producing areas & incidence of BXW
– 3 representative banana producing regions (districts)
• In each region (district), participants were:
– Key informants from government & research institutions
– Extension agents from government and NGOs
– Banana traders (retailers and wholesalers)
– Representative banana farmers (smallholder &progressive)
• Had bad experience of BXW

8. Farmers’ awareness of BXW in GLA

9. Banana production loss due to BXW

10. Awareness of GM crops
% of respondents aware of the meaning of GM banana (N=75) 36.0
% defining GM banana as … (N=29)
A banana bred to resist diseases 34.5
A banana with gene(s) from other sources 41.4
Good eye appeal banana but tasteless, has health effects 24.1
% of respondents supporting dev’t of GMB-BXW (N=112) 83.0

11. Willingness to adopt GMB-BXW
N=37

12. Projected adoption rate of GMB-BXW

13. Consumer preference and enquiry
40%
60%
No
Yes
Do consumers ask about variety type?
35%
24%
41%
Improved varieties
Indifferent
Local varieties
Reasons:
• Local varieties are: tasty (84%) and cook fast (16%)
• Indifferent: both varieties are tasty (56%) and cook fast (44%)
Attributes considered during purchase of bananas
• Quality and taste (37%), Size (51%), others (e.g prices) (12%)
Consumer preference
N=37 N=84

14. Potential consumers of GM bananas
Reasons for consumer preference
• High demand: All consumers (57%), Farmers(63%)
• Price determines: Urban consumers (54%)
• Attributes important: All consumers (21%), Farmers(6%),
• Imp. varieties known: All consumers (11%), Farmers(19%)
Farmers
13%
None
7%
All consumers
56%
Urban
consumers
24%
N=101

15. Economic benefits of adopting GMB-
BXW
Country Burundi DRC Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda
Internal rate of return 56.5 57.8 43.2 29.6 43.1 85.6
Gross consumer surplus
(million US$)
110 119 42 19 61 658
Gross producer surplus
(million US$)
55 60 21 9 31 329
Total benefits
(million US$)
161 168 60 20 76 953
Benefit – Cost ratio 33.85 17.13 20.7 3.62 6.11 30.05
• Projected annual economic benefits after adoption of GMB-BXW

16. Conclusions
• Farmers are willing to adopt GMB-BXW in GLA
– Initial adoption rate ranges from 21 – 70%
• Consumers &farmers benefit from adoption of GMB-
BXW
– Consumers benefit twice as much due price reduction
– Benefits are largest in countries badly hit by BXW
• Participatory bleeding programs have a high potential for