A presentation prepared by Bob Scholes for the workshop on Dealing with Drivers of Rapid Change in Africa: Integration of Lessons from Long-term Research on INRM, ILRI, Nairobi, June 12-13, 2008.

1. Carrying out scale-relevant collaborative research on drivers of changelessons and insight from SAfMA & other initiatives Bob Scholes, CSIR bscholes@csir.co.za Nairobi, 12 June 2008

2. The importance of a having a conceptual model The MA conceptual model was simple, but sufficient for the purpose In some respects, it was even arguably wrong But it did provide a way of teasing out proximal drivers, ultimate drivers, feedback effects and interventions, and created a framework in which both human sciences and natural sciences could locate themselves Source: MEA (2003) Ecosystem services and human well-being. Island Press

4. Analysing the strength of the feedback can help

6. Many factors were involved, including

7. Declining profitability of cattle and sheep ranching

8. Rising demand for hunting and ecotourism

9. Deteriorating on-farm security

10. Intergenerational lifestyle changes

11. The changes in legislation relating to ownership of wildlife actually followed rather than preceded these factorsSource: Scholes et al (in prep)

12. Meta-analysisThe relative weights of the many causes of food insecurity

13. Causality: Nutrition insecurityarguments from a knowledge of underlying processes Source: Scholes RJ and R Biggs 2004 Ecosystem services in southern Africa: a Regional assessment. CSIR

14. Getting the relationships rightExample:How does biodiversity link to ecosystem services, and services to human wellbeing? Society utilitarian values intrinsic values Biodiversity The naïve view

15. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2003) scheme Human wellbeing Material needs Good social relations Health Security Freedom & choice Indirect drivers Provisioning Food, fibre, water, wood medicines Supporting Nutrient Cycles, NPP Regulating Climate, disease, floods Cultural Aesthetics Tourism spiritual Direct Drivers Climate change Biodiversity

16. The MA followup scheme Source: Kinzig, Perrings and Scholes (submitted) Human wellbeing Freedom and choice Security Material needs Health Social relations insurance value market & nonmarket values Provisioning food, fibre, wood water, air, genes, medicines Cultural aesthetics, ethics tourism & recreation spiritual, sense of place  Ecosystem services   Regulating climate, floods, pests & disease Supporting Ecosystem processes, Habitat provision functional types landscape diversity species diversity response diversity Biodiversity interactions

17. Multiscale

18. Cross-scale Direct drivers Indirect drivers Ecosystem services Human Wellbeing Source: Carpenter et al 2006 Science 313 257-258

20. But, because of cross-scale interactions, there often is not a single ‘optimum’ scale

21. Rather than go for a ‘best compromise’, an integrated multiscale approach is recommended

23. Engaging other knowledge systemsif they want to have an impact in the ‘evidence-based’ space they need to migrate to that quadrant, by being placed in the public domain, and subject to rules of evidence. This is their choice. Apply rules: ie, test document Christo Fabricius, Bob Scholes and Georgina Cundill Mobilising knowledge for ecosystem assessments Proceedings of the ‘Bridging Scales and Epistemologies’ Conference, Alexandria, Egypt, March 2004

25. The rules of engagement are

26. Work within the framework

27. Agree to share information ie explicit, formal quadrant

28. Have an institutional framework for resolving conflicts

29. A ‘stakeholder board’ and a ‘technical panel’

30. Pay attention to the ‘soft’ issues

31. Provide opportunities to bond as a team

32. Get the balance right between disciplines and personalities