A presentation by James W. Smith,Nairobi, Kenya, 11 April 2011.

1. ILRI’s Future in the Emerging Global Context What are the critical outcomes that ILRI should deliver in the next 5 to 10 years? Jimmy W. Smith April 11th 2011 Nairobi, Kenya

2. Presentation Outline The changing global context ILRI’s continuing response & deliverables A bit about me

3. The Global Context for Livestock Global Challenges Livestock Domains Feeding the world Climate change Globalization

4. Feeding the World 2.5b and 70% more food by 2050 80% from increased productivity Major role for livestock products Steadily increasing demand 26% of all protein Micronutrients But the role of livestock is often not recognized

5. Feeding the World & REDUCING POVERTY Livelihood for 1 billion people 75% of the world’s poor involved in livestock rearing or trading -- a high proportion of them are women

6. Climate Change Impact on poor people’s livestock systems Cut emissions by 2/3 in 25 years –2 degree track Livestock part of the problem 18 % of GHG emissions Livestock part of the solution soil carbon Increasing productivity --contributing to two goals

7. US Dairy: Environmental Indicators 1944 compared with 2007 (per billion kg milk) Source: J.L. Capper, R.A. Cady and D.E. Bauman, Journal of Animal Science, 2009. 87:2160-2167

8. Globalization Winners and losers Distortions in trade and subsidy policies Smallholder competitiveness Zoonotics --movement of people and goods Land ownership changes

9. 9 Costs of selected zoonotic disease outbreaks (1986-2009, $ billion)

10. Livestock losses by species Zoonoses Non-Zoonoses Total loss: 382‘886 LSUs Total loss: 379‘327 LSUs Source: SAFOSO 10

11. HOW SHOULD ILRI CONTINUE TO RESPOND?

12. CGIAR’s Research for Development Agenda

13. The New CGIAR Structure Global Conference On Agricultural Research For Development (GCARD) Oversight Consortium Fund Strategy and Results Framework Funders’ Forum Board Management Layer Independent Science and Partnership Council Donor Contributions Research Centers Fund Council Performance Agreements ConsortiumOffice Fund Office Bilateral Project Financing

15. CRP 4 –Agriculture for improved Nutrition and Health (IFPRI, ILRI)

17. CRP 3.5 -Grain Legumes for enhanced food and feed security (ICRISAT)

18. CRP1.1 -Integrated agriculture in dry areas (ICARDA)

19. CRP5 -Water scarcity and land degradation (IWMI)

21. Annual funding to Livestock in the cgiar in 10 years time More Realistic: 20% share Aspiration: 40% share

22. What Comes out of the Hopper: Decision-making criteria

23. What would ILRI deliver in next 5-10 years? Poverty, and food and nutritional security Technologies and institutions to link smallholder to markets nationally and internationally Safer livestock products Gender to the top of the agenda close the attainment gap between male and female headed farms, and 100 million fewer people will be hungry. FAO State of Food and Agriculture 2010

24. What would ILRI deliver in next 5-10 years? Reduce risk to livestock and human health Vaccines, diagnostics and institutional options to protect the assets of the poor Advance the One Health approach to attain better animal-human-ecosystems health outcomes Continue to leverage BecA to contribute to livestock productivity, conservation and adaptation, as well as to animal health

25. What would ILRI deliver in next 5-10 years? Environmental sustainability Promote Climate Smart Livestock Systems Technologies that demonstrate sustainable increase in resource use efficiency, reduce the carbon foot print and build resilience Bring rangelands (especially pastoral systems) into Payment for Environmental Services schemes

26. What should ILRI deliver?

27. How Should ILRI work within CGIAR Upstream research response  GPGs Anchored in smallholder realities Leverage relationships within the CRPs and beyond Strengthen links between science and international development Revitalize training as part of the research approach Strategic partnerships to leverage the work of public, private, and civic sectors Attain wider impacts and outcomes 22

28. How should ILRI work internally Stable, longer-term funding How to measure impact of Livestock research Get more livestock in the next CGIAR strategy Continuing education for staff, maintain competitive edge Capacity building for Team work Partnership management Negotiation Results-based management

29. So Why Jimmy Smith?

31. Clear understanding of NARS, CGIAR, and Regional partner relationships

32. Served in the CGIAR

33. Have been a bi-lateral Donor

34. Agriculture from $50m to $350m annually

35. CGIAR from $17m to $46m

36. Serving within a co-sponsor – World Bank

37. Livestock from $200m to $1.5b

38. Worked with others to protect investments in the CGIAR25

39. PARTING WORDS Congratulations to Carlos and the Team Attention to Agriculture -Perhaps a once in a lifetime Move Livestock up the global agenda Mobilize resources to respond at scale Build Partnerships to leverage investments, facilitate uptake and expand our influence.

40. THANK YOU

42. Relevant experience Technical and management education Diploma in Tropical Ag., Ph.D in Animal Science and MBA equivalent Private and public sector experience Worked at national, regional and international levels Bilateral and multilateral experience as a donor Worked in or for all developing regions of the world

44. Private sector : Walmart, Mc Donalds, Nestle

46. Gains in meat consumption in developing countries clearly outpaces that of developed countries Developing Developed

47. Gains in meat consumption in developing countries clearly outpaces that of developed countries Developing Developed

48. One Health Approach: the concept CLIMATE Ecosphere Zoosphere Humans One Health Domestic Animals Wildlife ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

49. Poor households hardest hit – income effect of backyard poultry sales ban in Vietnam

50. The Mitigation Challenge Implications for GHG Emission Chemical N. fert. Product. On-farm fossil fuel Deforestation OM release from ag. soils Pasture degradation Processing fossil fuel Transport fossil fuel Enteric fermentation Manure storage/processing N fertilization Legume production Manure storage/processing Manure spreading Manure indirect emissions N2O Manure 25% Deforestation34% CO2 Enteric fermentation26% CH4

51. Disease reporting delay-cost of control relationships Cost of control outbreak Exposure in humans Exposure in animals Clinical signs in humans Clinical signs in animals Humans seek medical care Adapted from IOM (2009) 37

52. Livestock and Food Supply Based on FAOSTAT (2005-07 avg.)

53. Potential for Increased Effectiveness with One Health Approaches?Months elapsed from first outbreak to start of control measures 39 Average: 5.8 months

54. Impact on International Food Prices (2010=100) Average of four GCM, A1, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios