Presented by Jimmy Smith at the AGRF (African Green Revolution Forum), Nairobi, 8 September 2016

1. Transforming dairy value chains
Jimmy Smith
Director General, International Livestock Research Institute, Kenya
AGRF (African Green Revolution Forum), Nairobi, 8 September 2016 African Green
Revolution Forum_,

2. By 2050 the world
will consume
1 billion tonnes
of dairy/year
Demand in
Africa, especially
E.Africa
triples
Meeting demand through
importation is bad news
- For foreign exchange bill
- For employment
- And livelihoods
0
10000
20000
30000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Value of milk imports USD million
Sub Saharan Africa
Kenya:
About 400,000 jobs
in dairy (2004)
70% milk
from smallholders,
sold informally
Combining policy, technology,
institutions and market
research solutions:
More milk, higher quality milk
More jobs in milk
production and marketing
Ready to scale in SSA
Over 10 million households
Investments: development
banks; governments
AND
Research:
Technical backstopping
Tailoring and targeting
solutions
(highlands; peri-urban)
In Kenya: benefits for small-‐scale
producers, traders and consumers
over USD33 million a year.
Baseline over 1997-2039
NPV: USD 230 million; IRR 55%

3. Milk demand and consumption levels
differ in developed and developing countries
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2005/07 2050
Demand for milk
million t/annum
Developing
Developed
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005/07 2050
Milk consumption
kg/capita/annum
Developed
Developing
recommended

4. Consumption of livestock products
to 2050
• Globally:
An overall increase in per capita daily consumption
of livestock products of 37% compared to 2000
• Commodities differ:
– A 2% decrease in global per capita meat consumption
– A 61% increase in global per capita milk consumption
• Regions differ:
– In 2000, Africa and Middle East consumed (in total calorie
consumption) 60% fewer livestock foods than the EC
– In 2050, this will be reversed: highest livestock consumption
will be in Africa & Middle East, lowest in the EC
Herrero et al. 2014

5. % increase in production of livestock products:
2000–2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Raw milk Monogastric
meat & eggs
Ruminant meat
Europe
Latin America
Africa/Middle East
%
Herrero et al. 2014

6. BMGF, FAO, ILRI
Smallholders still dominate
livestock production in many countries
Region
(definition of
‘smallholder’)
% production by smallholder livestock farms
Beef Chicken
meat
Sheep/goat
meat
Milk Pork Eggs
East Africa
(≤ 6 milking
animals)
60-90
Bangladesh
(< 3ha land)
65 77 78 65 77
India
(< 2ha land)
75 92 92 69 71
Vietnam
(small scale)
80
Philippines
(backyard)
50 35

7. Ruminant production systems
• Mixed systems are an important source
of ruminant meat in 2000 and 2050
– Europe: 42% mixed temperate
– Latin America: 48% mixed humid
– Africa/Middle East: 38% mixed arid
• For milk:
– Over 50% of milk comes from mixed
systems, regardless of the region
– Big increases in milk production
by 2050 continue to be in mixed systems,
especially in Africa and the Middle East

8. Smallholder mixed crop-livestock keepers
are competitive
East African dairy
• 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd
• Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers
• Small- and large-scale Kenyan poultry and dairy producers
have same levels of efficiency and profits
Vietnam pig industry
• 95% of production is by producers with less than 100 animals
• Pig producers with 1-2 sows have lower unit costs
than those with more than 4 sows
• Industrial pig production could grow to meet
no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years
• Smallholders will continue to provide most of the pork
IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012

9. Demand for milk imports – growing fastest
in SSA
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
S.Asia SE. Asia SSA S.America High income

10. Steinfeld et al. 2006
Big productivity gaps, largely due to poor animal
health, persist between rich and poor countries
Some developing country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk

11. This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.
better lives through livestock
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